Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company benefits from declining coal prices, which positively impacts electricity costs, and continues to repurchase shares to reward investors [3][5] - The company reported a revenue of 28.36 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in net profit in 2026 and 2027, with projections of 904 million yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively, indicating a growth of 118.6% and 63.4% year-on-year [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production and sales volume of 13.68 million tons, an increase of 5.5% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively [4] - The average coal price in 2024 was 669.5 yuan per ton, down 23.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 364.8 yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year [4] - The company's electricity generation in 2024 was 41.3 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [4] Growth Potential - The Haizetang coal mine is expected to enhance coal production capacity, with plans for trial production in mid-2026 and full production in 2027, targeting an output of 10 million tons [5] - The company is actively advancing its energy storage projects, particularly in the all-vanadium flow battery sector [5] - A share repurchase plan for 2025 is being formulated, with a commitment to repurchase at least 300 million yuan worth of shares [5]

Group 1 - Nearly 70% of A-share companies have announced cash dividend plans, with over 3,600 companies disclosing their annual reports and dividend proposals, totaling more than 1.6 trillion yuan in proposed cash dividends [1] - The leading companies in this dividend wave include major state-owned enterprises and industry leaders, with the top three in total cash dividends being Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (586.64 billion yuan), China Mobile (approximately 499.4 billion yuan), and China Construction Bank (515.02 billion yuan) [1] - Companies like PetroChina, China Shenhua, and Kweichow Moutai also plan to distribute over 10 billion yuan in dividends [1] Group 2 - The trend of regular cash dividends is becoming more evident, with significant improvements in both the scale and coverage of cash dividends among A-share companies, driven by policy guidance [2] - There is a cautionary note regarding the return of "high send and transfer" schemes, as some companies may use these to mask underlying weaknesses in their fundamentals [2]

Group 1 - The company Southgobi Sands LLC (SGS), a wholly-owned subsidiary of SouthGobi Resources Ltd, received an invitation from the Mongolian government to negotiate ownership interests related to its coal mining licenses in Mongolia [1][2] - The Mongolian government aims to implement the National Wealth Fund Law passed in April 2024, which involves determining the government's equity stake in entities holding mining licenses deemed strategically significant [1][2] - SGS is expected to engage in ongoing discussions with the Mongolian government's authorized representative, with the goal of reaching a constructive understanding and agreement [2] Group 2 - The company's legal advisors indicated that the Mongolian government has the right to participate in exploration and/or mining of strategically significant minerals through equity arrangements with license holders [2] - Several other license holders of strategically significant minerals have already engaged in similar negotiations with the Mongolian government [2] - The company will continue to monitor developments regarding the scope of strategically significant minerals and their potential impact on its operations while seeking to protect its legal rights to the minerals [2]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 回归基本面，信用债如何配置？ ——5 月信用债策略月报 1、城投债方面，关注 3y 以内低等级与 4-5y 中高等级投资机会。对江苏、浙 江等区域，综合实力较强、存量债券余额较多，叠加化债利好保护，可在 3y 以内下沉至 AA-品种；四川、山东、河南、湖南、湖北等地可在 2y 以内下沉 至 AA-品种，天津、重庆等区域可在 2y 以内下沉至 AA(2)品种。 2、地产债方面，关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种。从板块比价来看，当 前地产债收益率具有一定吸引力，1-2yAA 品种利差在 88-98BP。4 月国务院常 务会议指出要持续稳定股市，政治局会议指出持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势， 后续仍可关注 1-2y 央国企地产 AA 及以上品种机会。但行业信用风险尚未出 清，景气度预计仍偏低，低等级主体谨慎下沉。 3、周期债方面，煤炭债短端下沉、中高等级拉久期至 3y，钢铁债规避尾部风 险。对短期风险可控的隐含评级 AA 煤企 1-2y 品种适当下沉，中高等级可拉 长久期至 3y。今年以来动力煤供需两弱，煤炭价格持续下跌，关注煤价止跌 回稳情况，若景气度持续下 ...

Macro - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance to defend its independence and stabilize inflation expectations, with 2-3 potential rate cuts remaining in 2025 depending on economic indicators such as consumer and employment data [4] Coal Industry - In March, coal imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, and some coal companies are facing accounting losses, which may lead to production cuts or shutdowns [5] - Electricity generation from thermal power has been significantly below expectations since the beginning of the year, but demand for coal may recover as the summer peak approaches [5] Retail - During the Labor Day holiday, sales from key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year, while duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a decline of 7.3% in sales amount [5] - The overall consumption data has shown resilience, with specific segments such as national subsidies, gold and jewelry retail, and emotional consumption being highlighted as areas of interest [5] Automotive Industry - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a revenue of 73.15 billion yuan in 2024, down 4.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.82 billion yuan, down 17.60% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.12 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.26 billion yuan, up 117.20% year-on-year [6] Technology and AI - Northstar Holdings is projected to achieve total revenue of 940 million yuan in FY25, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10%, with cloud HCM solutions expected to generate 730 million yuan [7] - The company anticipates an adjusted net loss of approximately 60 million yuan for FY25, corresponding to an adjusted net loss rate of -6.4% [7] Healthcare - Steady Medical reported a revenue increase of 9.7% and a net profit increase of 19.8% in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing a revenue growth of 36.5% and a net profit growth of 36.3% [8] - The medical consumables segment saw a revenue increase of 46.3% in Q1 2025, while health and lifestyle consumer products grew by 28.8% [8] Alcohol Industry - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a total revenue of 360.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit of 122.43 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [9] - In Q4 2024, total revenue decreased by 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 11.32% [9]

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 基本面：进口减量有限，产增需减导致过剩 （1）2025Q1，我国煤炭进口总量1.1亿吨，同比-0.9%，总体仍维持高位，其中，由印尼进口煤炭5259万吨， 同比-6.6%，由澳大利亚进口煤炭1645万吨，同比+3.7%，由蒙古进口煤炭1749万吨，同比+3.1%，由俄罗斯进 口煤炭1962万吨，同比+7.9%；（2）2025Q1，我国原煤产量12.0亿吨，同比+8.8%，其中，新疆、山西、陕 西、内蒙古原煤产量同比增速分别为16.9%、19.8%、4.1%、2.1%；（3）2025Q1，我国火电发电量1.5万亿千 瓦时，同比-4.4%，生铁产量2.2亿吨，同比+1.4%，水泥产量3.3亿吨，同比-1.7%，化工耗煤量0.8亿吨，同比 +14 ...

Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The coal sector's overall net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 20% year-on-year, with an average ROE of approximately 10% [1] - The total profit of large coal enterprises is projected to be 604.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [1] - Key coal companies are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 155.5 billion yuan, down 18.6% and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: 2024 Operational Overview - The total coal production of 28 key coal companies is estimated at 1.34 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is approximately 131 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25% [2] - The weighted average coal price and cost are projected to decrease by 7% and remain stable, respectively [2] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Overview - The sector's profit is expected to decline by 27% year-on-year, with an average net profit margin of around 11% [3] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to be 31 billion yuan, down 27.3% year-on-year [3] - The average gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 are expected to drop to 25% and 11%, respectively [3] Group 4: Q1 2025 Operational Overview - The coal production of 24 companies is expected to reach 304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is projected to decrease to 97 yuan, with coal prices and costs declining by 18% and 15%, respectively [4] - Some companies, such as Shaanxi Energy and Yancoal, are expected to maintain a net profit per ton exceeding 100 yuan [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Seasonal demand for thermal coal is expected to improve marginally after May, with expectations of increased industrial demand and reduced coal imports [5] - Coal prices are anticipated to gradually recover after inventory declines, despite a potential downward trend in the price center for 2025 [5] Group 6: Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include China Coal Energy and Yancoal [6] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6]

煤炭产能增量可期，煤电新能源发电项目稳步推进（1）煤炭产能增量可期：公司马依东一井、马依东 二井、马依西二井正按计划有序办理相关手续，力争早日取得核准并开工建设；马依西一井（二采区） 120万吨/年项目力争在2026 年上半年进入联合式运转；首黔公司杨山煤矿露天开采100 万吨/年项目， 计划建设工期24 个月。（2）煤电及新能源发电项目稳步推进： 火电方面，2024 年12 月27 日公司盘江普定 2×66 万千瓦燃煤发电项目2 号机组首次并网发电；2024 年 12 月盘江（普定）发电公司2×66 万千瓦高效超超临界二次再热燃煤发电项目获得项目核准批复；新能 源发电项目，公司通过子公司共投资建设新能源发电项目装机约377 万千瓦，截至2024 年12 月底已实 现并网容量约188 万千瓦。（3）分红比例同比提升：2024 年公司分红比例为45%，同比+4.94%，以 2025 年4 月25 日收盘价计算，对应当前股息率为6.6%。 风险提示：经济增长不及预期；煤价下跌超预期；新增产能进度不及预期。 Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升，维持"买入"评级公司发布2024 年报及2025 一季报， ...

煤炭/煤炭开采 盘江股份（600395.SH） Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升 2025 年 05 月 08 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 一季报，2024 年实现营收 89 亿元，同比-5.4%，归 母净利润 1 亿元，同比-85.8%，扣非归母净利润-0.3 亿元，同比-104.6%；其中 2024Q4 实现营收 24.5 亿元，环比+2%，归母净利润 0.7 亿元，环比+3402%， 扣非归母净利润 0.2 亿元，环比+1003.1%。2025Q1 实现营收 24.8 亿元，同比 +27.3%，归母净利润-1 亿元，同比-590.4%，扣非归母净利润-1.2 亿元，同比 -4826.2%。考虑到煤炭销量下滑，我们下调 2025-2026 年盈利预测并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司实现归母净利润 0.59/1.12/1.63 亿元 （2025-2026 年前值 ...