当然，这场派对并非人人有份。当你看到Nvidia和Meta这些AI宠儿像火箭一样蹿升，股价直冲历史新高 时，你可能会觉得整个市场都沐浴在阳光下。但别傻了，这只是"七巨头"的独角戏。他们依然掌握着定 价权，依然能把财报做得像艺术品，依然能在这个"悄悄走向萎缩"的世界里，给你画一张"增长"的大 饼。 至于那些小盘股和周期性股票？它们就像派对上被遗忘的角落，努力跟上节奏，却总显得有些气喘吁 吁。 更令人玩味的是，当股市高歌猛进时，黄金和加密货币这两位"恐慌与投机"的双生子也同步飙升。这就 像是，你一边在庆祝经济复苏，一边又偷偷地把钱藏在床垫下，以防万一。这哪里是"哈利路亚"式的欢 呼，这分明是对美联储"降息果汁"的机械式对冲，生怕错过了任何一点刺激。 来源：外汇百科堂 上周五，当美国劳工部发布了一份让经济学家们集体"手足无措"的疲软就业报告时，华尔街的交易员们 并没有选择"手足无措"。恰恰相反，他们选择了"手舞足蹈"。 标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数在周一上演了一场自五月以来最为壮观的单日涨幅，这哪里是反弹？ 这简直是一份对"坏消息就是好消息"这本老旧剧本的"深情告白"。 是的，你没听错。当就业市场传来"咔嚓"一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant implications for the stock market and specific companies like Tesla and Meta [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - On August 4, U.S. stock markets saw significant gains, with all three major indices rising over 1% [2][3]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, suggesting two 25 basis point cuts within the year [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [1][3]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 585.06 points (1.34%) to close at 44,173.64 points, while the Nasdaq gained 403.45 points (1.95%) to reach 21,053.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 91.93 points (1.47%) to 6,329.94 points [3]. - The S&P 500 index saw ten sectors rise, with communication services and technology sectors leading with gains of 2.59% and 2.15%, respectively [5]. Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's stock rose by 2.19% after the company approved a stock grant of 96 million shares to CEO Elon Musk, valued at approximately $29 billion, to ensure his continued leadership [5]. - Meta Platforms' stock increased by 3.51%, with Goldman Sachs noting strong momentum in its core business and effective AI development enhancing advertising efficiency [6].

降息大消息。 当地时间周一（8月4日），美股大幅收高，三大股指涨幅均超1%。市场对美联储降息的预期逐渐升 温。旧金山联储主席戴利表示，降息时机已经临近，年内进行两次25个基点的降息看起来仍然是一个适 当的重新调整。 特斯拉收高2.19%。美国电动汽车生产商特斯拉已批准向其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克授予9600万股股票， 价值约290亿美元，此举旨在确保马斯克能够继续掌舵特斯拉。此前，美国一法院曾以对股东不公平为 由，裁定马斯克2018年获得的560亿美元薪酬方案无效。而马斯克正就此项裁决采取行动。 当地时间周一，美股三大股指收高，涨幅均超1%。截至收盘，道指涨585.06点，涨幅为1.34%，报 44173.64点；纳指涨403.45点，涨幅为1.95%，报21053.58点；标普500指数涨91.93点，涨幅为1.47%， 报6329.94点。 旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软，且没有迹象显示关税通胀持续 存在，降息时机已经临近。戴利称，年内进行两次25个基点的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调整， 重要的是是否在9月和12月都降息，而不是降息是否会发生。 据CME"美联储观察"：美 ...

Group 1 - TikTok Shop is experiencing rapid global expansion, transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with core markets like the US, Indonesia, and Thailand entering a mature phase [1][9] - The platform has successfully launched in new markets such as Mexico and Brazil, with several new countries achieving monthly GMV exceeding one million USD [1][27] - TikTok's advertising reach has grown significantly, ranking third globally with 1.84 billion users, leveraging its content recommendation mechanism and high user engagement [1][50] Group 2 - The influencer ecosystem in the US is dominated by creator collaboration accounts, while Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Thailand, shows strong performance [2][21] - The global advertising ecosystem is evolving, with AI-driven efficiency improvements and a concentration of top-performing agencies in key markets [2][21] - TikTok Shop's ecosystem is continuously evolving, providing structural opportunities for brands and merchants amid stability and efficiency [2][21] Group 3 - TikTok Shop's key events in the first half of 2025 include the restoration of services in the US, the launch in Mexico, and the initiation of cross-border operations in the UK [27] - The platform's GMV in the US has doubled year-on-year, with small businesses contributing significantly to monthly sales [30][31] - TikTok Shop is expanding into Japan, marking a critical step in its global expansion strategy [31] Group 4 - The global e-commerce market is projected to reach $6.86 trillion by 2025, with social platforms becoming significant entry points for new growth [35][40] - Mobile e-commerce is expected to reach $2.51 trillion by 2025, reflecting a growing trend towards online shopping through mobile devices [38][39] - TikTok's user growth is shifting towards emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, indicating a new phase of global expansion [53][58]

高盛发表研究报告指出，Meta第二季业绩显示核心业务动能强劲，AI发展有效提升广告业务效能。 Meta管理层维持全年支出指引，并将专注于长期算力投资及人才培养，看好媒体消费、创作者经济、 通信平台及广告生态AI应用等领域的长期增长。基于最新业绩及指引，高盛上调Meta 2026年GAAP开 支预测至增长25%，资本开支预测至约1000亿美元，重申"买入"评级，目标价由775美元上调至830美 元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

高盛发表研究报告指，Meta第二季业绩展现核心业务动能强劲，AI发展持续推动广告业务效能提升， 管理层维持全年GAAP开支及资本支出指引，表示将专注于长期算力投资及人才培养，同时看好媒体消 费、创作者经济、通讯平台及广告生态AI应用等领域的长期增长空间。 因应最新业绩表现及指引，该行相应上调Meta 2026年GAAP开支预测至按年增长25%，资本开支预测达 到约1000亿美元，重申"买入"评级，目标价由775美元上调至830美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Meta's Q2 performance was strong, with advertising revenue growth exceeding expectations, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 8% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Earnings Forecasts - UBS has raised its total expenditure forecasts for 2026-2027 by 5% and 7% respectively, considering an increase in operating expenses [1] - The adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2026-2027 have been increased by 13% and 9% respectively [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - UBS expresses optimism regarding Meta's long-term growth potential through new monetization channels such as commercial AI and Meta AI search [1] - The target price for Meta has been raised from $812 to $897, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meta's Q2 performance exceeded expectations with a revenue of $47.5 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year increase, and an operating profit of $20.4 billion, surpassing forecasts by 19% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 reached $47.5 billion, exceeding expectations by 6% [1] - Operating profit was $20.4 billion, which was 19% above forecasts [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Strong growth was primarily driven by advertising revenue from the Family of Apps [1] - Daily active users increased by 6% year-over-year to 3.48 billion [1] - Ad impressions rose by 11% year-over-year, while the average price per ad increased by 9% [1] Group 3: Analyst Recommendations - The company is the top pick in the industry according to the report [1] - Target price has been raised from $759 to $866, indicating a positive outlook [1] - The rating is "Buy," reflecting confidence in sustained growth driven by AI [1]

随着经济裂痕迹象显现，外界将持续关注后续贸易谈判进程，并评估美联储降息前景，短期技术指标恶 化或预示股指调整还将继续。 美联储压力有所升级 美联储上周按兵不动。近一周美国公布了大量经济数据，作为美联储最关注的物价指标，数据显示美国 关税上调的延迟效应开始渗透到经济中，6月个人消费支出指数PCE环比上涨0.3%，创自2月以来的最大 增幅。核心PCE则继续维持在2.8%，与美联储2%的目标距离不小。外界担忧，随着关税进一步推高进 口商品的价格，将造成价格压力在下半年加剧。 然而备受关注的就业数据让美联储降息的天平有所倾斜。7月份非农报告显示，美国新增就业人数7.3万 人，远低于10.4万人的预测。此前的两份数据被大幅向下修订， 6月份的就业增长从14.7万人降至1.4万 人，5月份从12.5万人降至1.9万人，这是自2020年5月以来最大的双月下修。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，令人惊讶的就 业报告将增加美联储尽早降息的压力。如果不是因为卫生和社会服务部门持续强劲，非农在过去三个月 将出现下降，这两个行业对周期性因素并不十分敏感，主要反映了人口老龄化的 ...

Group 1 - Tesla has been ordered to pay approximately $243 million in damages for a fatal accident involving its Model S equipped with an autonomous driving system [1][3][4] - The compensation includes $129 million in compensatory damages, with Tesla held responsible for 33% of the liability, and $200 million in punitive damages [4] - CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla will appeal the jury's decision [5] Group 2 - OpenAI is planning to launch a new subscription plan called "Go" for ChatGPT, targeting light users with a price potentially below $15, possibly as low as $10 [5][6] - The new plan aims to provide access to AI models without including advanced features, catering to users who only need basic functionalities [6] Group 3 - Meta's collaboration with Ray-Ban on smart glasses has seen sales increase by over 300% this year, with the third generation set to launch in October [6][8] - The new smart glasses will feature a monochrome display and a wristband-style controller, priced between $1,000 and $1,400 [8] Group 4 - Instagram has implemented a new rule requiring users to have at least 1,000 followers to go live, aiming to enhance the overall live streaming experience [9] - This change may impact smaller creators and casual users who previously had access to live streaming regardless of their follower count [9] Group 5 - The price of caregiver robots is expected to drop to around 50,000 yuan within five years, making them more accessible to ordinary families [10] - The demand for caregiver robots is driven by the aging population in China, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, there will be 310 million people aged 60 and above [10] Group 6 - Brilliant Labs has launched a new smart glasses product called Halo, priced at $299, which features a microOLED display and AI capabilities for natural interaction [11] - The glasses are designed to provide contextual information and enhance user privacy through bone conduction speakers [11] Group 7 - The new XPeng P7 electric sedan will debut on August 6, featuring an industry-first flat illuminated logo and an adjustable electric rear wing [13] - The design aims to reflect a blend of technology and luxury, with a strong emphasis on aesthetics [13] Group 8 - DJI has released its first 8K 360-degree camera, the Osmo 360, starting at 2,999 yuan, marking its entry into the 360-degree camera market [15] - The CEO of影石 has expressed respect for DJI's capabilities and acknowledged the competitive landscape in the drone and camera sectors [15]