拉斯维加斯著名赌场 "过去，高额投注者大多是中国游客，但现在从中国客户那里获取资金变得困难"，在中国游客减 少的这10年间，东南亚的中产阶层迅速壮大，带动了赌场热潮。过去20年，拉斯维加斯的人口和 国内生产总值均增长了近两倍…… 编者按： 特 朗普政权诞生的美国。尽管社会上弥漫着对现状的愤怒和不满，经济却处于巅峰状 态，超级大国的地位依然稳固。美国的强大与脆弱究竟源自何处？《日本经济新闻》美国当地记 者报道那些日常新闻中未曾展现的 " 真实美国 " 。本栏目不定期刊登。 酒店"贝拉吉奥"的赌桌 在拉斯维加斯市中心的著名赌场酒店"贝拉吉奥"内，有一间专门供"高额投注者"（High Roller）使 用的房间。这些客人是赌场中豪赌的常客。房间大小类似于小型宴会厅，空气中弥漫着淡淡的烟 草味，六张赌桌整齐摆放着，几位穿着休闲的亚洲顾客一边饮酒，一边静静地享受游戏的乐趣。 这里进行的是经典赌场游戏"百家乐"，在这间VIP小房间里，最低下注额高达1000美元（约15万 日元），是普通赌桌的100倍以上。当晚，每桌单次最高下注额达5000美元（约75万日元）。一 个房间里一晚的资金流动就能达到数亿日元的规模。 尽管赌场对 ...

【解剖大盘】 关税战终于出现缓和迹象，美股有望二次探底成功，港股今天也跳空高开，全天走势平稳，收盘涨 2.37%，恒指站上了22000点关口。 现在的美股已经到了危险的边缘，如果再跌破近期的低点，后果非常严重，资金的外逃将不可避免。全 球资管巨头骏利亨德森投资公司目前正考虑减少其对美国资产的敞口。大概会有10%的资金或转移到欧 洲、中国、中东和拉丁美洲。这还只是开始，稳不住的话，出逃的比例恐怕会更多。全球资金总量是有 限的，此消彼长也是必然的趋势。看下新兴市场，印度上周成为首个抹平关税引发的跌幅的主要市场， MSCI新兴市场指数周三上涨1.7%，韩国KOSPI指数收复了因美国征收对等关税而导致的跌幅。中国市 场也很接近了。 再看一下基本面状况，据报中方禁韩企向美国国防部门出口含中国稀土产品，这就是防止出现钻漏洞的 情况，我们这一块具有丰富的经验，连马斯克都在担心其擎天柱机器人要用到的稀土永磁材料会被禁。 金力永磁(06680)今天也借机涨超12%，光是稀土一项，美国军工企业就非常难受，高精尖武器就无法继 续生产，军工复合体不慌是假的。还有，据媒体4月23日报道称，美国高关税迫使中国买家用中东的 LPG取代美国 ...

裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 板块配置｜六大主线板块当前处在什么位置？ 一个季度过去了，市场最关注的几个主线板块都处在什么位置？后续还可以期待什 么？我们从股价、估值、基本面等维度自上而下梳理了科技、消费、医药、新能源、 红利、出海六大板块一季度运行动态，并给出了相关配置线索。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复 苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧；地缘政治风险。 尹欣驰 ｜中信证券 汽车及零部件行业首席分析师 S1010519040002 商用车｜卡车电动化最后一块拼图：重卡混动发展前瞻 重卡新能源化进展如火如荼，趋势明确不可逆。但现有主流的纯电动重卡受限于续航 里程限制，主要在短途和特定场景下渗透，中长距离场景的新能源化仍待开拓。复盘 乘用车新能源化进程，混动车型于纯电车型普及后两年开始加速渗透，我们认为混动 也将成为重卡新能源化的最后一块拼图。混动重卡在政策大力支持的新能源重卡范畴 内、且在中长距离运输场景中满足高效运输需求，经济性表现远超柴油重卡、且混动 技术已较为成熟，我们认为其已具备大范围商业化基础。我们预计2024/202 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the cryptocurrency market, particularly focusing on Bitcoin, and its relationship with traditional assets like gold and the stock market. It also touches on the Hong Kong stock market as a platform for global capital allocation. Core Points and Arguments Bitcoin as an Alternative Asset - Bitcoin has transitioned from being primarily driven by retail speculation to being influenced by institutional investment and U.S. dollar liquidity, showing a negative correlation with U.S. real interest rates [3][4][5] - The price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with mining costs, which increase with greater computational power [3][4] - Bitcoin's long-term annualized return can exceed 80%, but it also exhibits a volatility rate over 60%, posing challenges for institutional investors [5][6] Relationship with Gold - Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including central bank purchases, U.S. fiscal deficits, and market dynamics, with a mid-term target price of $3,100 to $3,200 [3][19] - Central bank gold purchases have altered the supply-demand dynamics in the gold market, particularly with China reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves [21][22] - The creditworthiness of the U.S. dollar significantly impacts gold prices, with high fiscal deficits undermining dollar credibility and pushing gold prices higher [23][24] Market Dynamics and Risks - Bitcoin faces risks from technological vulnerabilities, potential competition from superior cryptocurrencies, and significant sell-offs by large holders (whales) [8][9] - The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has strengthened since 2020, indicating that both are influenced by macro liquidity conditions [5][15] - The tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity is expected to support gold and Bitcoin prices in the near term [12] Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned as a crucial platform for global capital allocation, with mechanisms like ETF cross-listing facilitating cross-border investments [35][36] - The market has seen a significant increase in cross-border investment activities, with a notable rise in the proportion of southbound capital [35][41] - The future of the Hong Kong market is expected to be shaped by its role as an international financial center, with ongoing developments in ETF products and cross-border investment channels [39][40] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for AI technology to enhance productivity in various sectors, including logistics and transportation, is highlighted as a significant trend that could impact market dynamics [55] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their effects on gold demand and pricing are noted, with a focus on how these factors could influence investment strategies [28][29] - The historical context of gold price fluctuations and the factors leading to significant market corrections are discussed, providing insights into potential future trends [32][34] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, its relationship with gold, and the evolving role of the Hong Kong stock market in global capital allocation.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The return of Trump with stronger political capital enhances governance efficiency, as he won all seven swing states in the 2024 election with margins exceeding polling expectations [6] - Key voter concerns in swing states include inflation and immigration, with 28% of voters prioritizing inflation as the main issue [10] - Trump's cabinet is more hawkish and loyal, potentially leading to aggressive policies in economic, immigration, and foreign affairs [15] - The cabinet consists of various factions, including conservatives, MAGA loyalists, reformists, and Wall Street representatives, each with differing policy priorities [17] Summary by Sections 1. Trump's Strong Return - Trump's political capital is at its highest since Roosevelt, allowing for rapid cabinet appointments and policy advancements [6][8] - Swing states have shifted towards Trump, indicating a strong voter base [7] 2. Overview of Trump's 2.0 Policy Layout - Key issues for voters include inflation, immigration, and employment, with a focus on trade and immigration policies as tools for domestic policy negotiations [10][31] - The administration has signed numerous executive orders, particularly in trade and immigration, to address pressing domestic issues [31] 3. Economic Impact of Trump's 2.0 - The U.S. faces a challenging monetary policy environment, balancing between employment and inflation, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 3.0% [22][23] - The federal deficit is projected to remain high, with government debt levels exceeding historical averages, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [24] - Strong dollar policies may conflict with manufacturing repatriation efforts, as high inflation and a strong dollar reduce competitiveness for U.S. exports [25] - Tariff policies are expected to generate significant revenue, with estimates suggesting potential tariff income of around $111 billion from proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China [56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Galaxy Entertainment is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, and there is optimism for continued growth in 2025, particularly in EBITDA profit margins [5] - The recovery in gaming revenue is attributed to non-gaming activities such as concerts, which have attracted high-net-worth clients [5] - The company is exploring upgrades for its hotel offerings to enhance revenue generation [5] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 35,684 million in 2023 to HKD 53,525.8 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% [1][6] - Adjusted property EBITDA is expected to increase from HKD 9,955 million in 2023 to HKD 16,663.4 million in 2026, with a significant year-on-year growth of 34.5% in 2024 [1][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.56 in 2023 to HKD 3.24 in 2026 [1][6] Market Position - The company achieved a total gaming revenue of HKD 110.3 billion in Q4 2024, recovering to 76.3% of the levels seen in Q4 2019 [5] - The market share for the company's mass gaming segment increased to 22.5%, while the overall gaming market share rose to 19.8% [5] - The company is expected to maintain stable operating costs, which will support profit margin recovery to pre-pandemic levels [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, and there is optimism for continued EBITDA margin improvement in 2025 [5] - The recovery in gaming revenue is attributed to non-gaming activities, such as concerts, which have attracted high-net-worth clients [5] - The company is exploring upgrades for its hotel offerings to enhance revenue generation [5] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 35,684 million in 2023 to HKD 53,525.8 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% [1][6] - Adjusted property EBITDA is expected to increase from HKD 9,955 million in 2023 to HKD 16,663.4 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 20.6% in 2025 [1][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.56 in 2023 to HKD 3.24 in 2026 [1][6] Market Position - The company achieved a total gaming revenue of HKD 110.3 billion in Q4 2024, recovering to 76.3% of the Q4 2019 level [5] - The market share for the company's mass gaming segment increased to 22.5%, while total gaming revenue market share rose to 19.8% [5] - The company is expected to maintain stable operating costs, contributing to improved profit margins [5]

摘要 Q&A 请介绍一下思摩尔国际的股权激励目标及其对公司未来发展的影响。 思摩尔国际设定了到 2030 年实现市值 3,000 亿、4,000 亿、5,000 亿港币的股 权激励目标，并向核心创始人发放一定比例的股份。该目标引起了市场广泛关 注，主要集中在其与英美烟草合作推出的 Glo Hyper 产品的未来前景上。具体 而言，这款产品的竞争力如何、主要客户是否将其作为重点推广方向以及上市 节奏等因素都将对公司未来业绩产生重要影响。 中信建投｜大消费联合电话会 • 思摩尔国际的 Glo Hyper 产品市场表现具优势，虽口感略逊于 IQOS，但整 体水平达 IQOS 7-8 成，预计未来销量约 810 支烟弹，保守估计扣税后纯利 可达 40 亿元，若按七分钱计算，总利润可达 56 亿元，增长空间显著。 • 快递行业自 2025 年 3 月起进入淡季价格调整，各品牌降价幅度不一，中通 降幅最大，同比去年同期降幅更高。义乌地区低价竞争压力仍存，关注中 通和申通的投资机会，高频月度份额数据反映战略执行情况。 • 阿里巴巴对菜鸟网络的组织业务和人员调整，可能对快递行业格局产生较 大影响。关注阿里持股较多的申通快递， ...

今日早参 2025 年 2 月 17 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：社融"开门红"背后的信息 1 月社融数据点评 数据快评：1 月新增社融同比多增，主要由于政府债、企业贷款以及票据融 资同比多增，主要反映政府债前置发行、地方债置换的影响消退以及银行年 初贷款冲量的拉动。同时，考虑春节错位影响后，新增居民中长期贷款同比 边际改善，显示地产去杠杆对信贷周期的拖累下降。简单测算显示，1 月 M2、社融余额偏离趋势值分别较 12 月的 3.7%、2%收窄至 3%、1.1%。口 径调整后，1 月 M1 同比增速从 12 月的 1.2%放缓至 0.4%（彭博一致预期- 0.5%），部分受去年同期高基数的拖累。1 月 M2 同比增速较 12 月的 7.3%回 落至 7%，低于彭博一致预期的 7.3%，主要受企业与非银机构存款同比少增 拖累。 风险提示：稳增长政策发力不及预期，地产周期超预期下行。 研报发布日期：2025-02-14 研究员 常慧丽 SAC:S0570520110002 SFC:BJC906 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 宏 ...