Core Viewpoint - The company, Shuangxiang Co., Ltd. (002395.SZ), has indicated that its optical-grade PMMA materials can be applied in the solar photovoltaic cell sector [1] Group 1 - The company specializes in optical-grade PMMA materials [1] - The application of these materials extends to solar photovoltaic cells [1]

Core Insights - The primary form of plastic production in Chongqing for June 2025 was 17,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 39.6% [1] - The production for the first half of 2025 totaled 123,000 tons, also showing a year-on-year decrease of 26.3% [1] Production Data Summary - June 2025 plastic production: 17,000 tons, down 39.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate change of +14.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - National comparison: Chongqing's production accounted for 0.1% of the national total of 1,203,208.99 tons, which is 51.7% lower than the national growth rate [1] - First half of 2025 plastic production: 123,000 tons, down 26.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate change of +25.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - National comparison for the first half: Chongqing's production represented 0.2% of the national total of 7,012,347.53 tons, which is 36.6% lower than the national growth rate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, in a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as good as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious about the future market and actively sold goods at reduced prices There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry It is expected that plastics will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the plastic operating rate was around 88%, a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly due to factors such as Russia's oil sanctions and OPEC+ production decisions New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious and sold goods at reduced prices There was no anti - involution policy in the plastic industry, which would affect the subsequent market It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6815 yuan/ton, and closed at 6760 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.41% The position decreased by 1974 lots to 584333 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7010 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, a neutral level - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 71000 tons, 1000 tons higher than the same period last year It was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730/ton month - on - month, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $740/ton month - on - month [4]

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a rise of 2.28% on November 11, with Shangwei New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant price increases, with Shangwei New Materials up 20.00% to 130.20, and other notable gainers including Sdik up 9.77% and Tu'en Co. up 9.68% [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 392 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 277 million yuan [2] - The stock performance of major companies showed varied results, with Da Dong Nan experiencing a net inflow of 90.97 million yuan from institutional investors, while Sdik faced a net outflow of 66.22 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Overall, the sector's trading volume and turnover reflected active participation, with significant movements in both institutional and retail investor segments [2][3]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the plastic production in Henan Province reached 970,000 tons, marking an 11.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate has slowed down by 14.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The production accounted for 1.4% of the national total plastic production of 70,123,475.3 tons during the same period [1] Monthly Analysis - In June 2025, the plastic production in Henan Province was 151,000 tons, which represents a decline of 4.4% compared to June 2024, with a significant drop in growth rate of 43.2 percentage points [3] - The June production accounted for 1.3% of the national plastic production of 12,032,089.9 tons [3] Industry Context - The term "primary form of plastic" was previously known as plastic resin and copolymer before 2004 [6] - Since 2011, the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises in China has been raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan [6]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 11 日 LLDPE：单体环节利润压缩，关注进口压力 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6802 | 0.00% | 298530 | 930 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -32 | | -22 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -76 | | -79 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6770 | | 6780 | | | | 东 华 | 6900 | | 6900 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 今日 LLDPE 市场价格延续弱调，幅度在 10-50 元/吨。线性期货低开震荡 ...

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.36% on November 10, with Qide New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.6, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up 0.18% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Jiangsu Boyun (301003) with a closing price of 42.10, up 4.39% and a trading volume of 40,700 shares, totaling 170 million yuan [1] - Foshan Plastics (000973) closed at 10.79, up 3.85% with a trading volume of 2,109,500 shares, totaling 2.325 billion yuan [1] - Shangwei New Materials (688585) closed at 108.50, up 3.71% with a trading volume of 88,000 shares, totaling 930 million yuan [1] - Key decliners included: - Qide New Materials (36600E) closed at 39.58, down 5.31% with a trading volume of 37,400 shares, totaling 151 million yuan [2] - Dongcai Technology (601208) closed at 19.23, down 4.04% with a trading volume of 536,600 shares, totaling 1.036 billion yuan [2] - Wankai New Materials (301216) closed at 18.62, down 3.82% with a trading volume of 143,700 shares, totaling 270 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 554 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 412 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Shengquan Group (605589) with a net inflow of 53.7853 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shenkai Co., Ltd. (002361) with a net inflow of 23.9277 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Daoming Optical (002632) with a net inflow of 20.8714 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量79.65万吨，相较上周的78.92万吨增加0.73万吨，涨幅0.92%；相较去年同期的66.9万吨增加12.75万吨，涨幅19.06%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率77.78%，环比上升0.72%；中石化产能利用率75.77%，环比下降0.19%。 | | | | （1）平均开工上涨0.52个百分点至53.14%。前期部分企业因原料波动或检修导致开工滞后，电商双十一备货拉动终端需求，BOPP、透明包装、物流包装 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 等应用领域订单小增，相关行业开工负荷稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The PE market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand support is insufficient. In the medium - and short - term, a bearish view is taken, and in the long - term, the supply pressure of non - standard PE products may suppress LLDPE prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The pressure is continuously increasing. There are few subsequent device maintenance plans, and the start - up rate is expected to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, new device startups are still concentrated, such as the upcoming startups of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [1]. - Demand side: The support is insufficient. Although the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season, the overall start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. After mid - November, the growth space for demand will be limited, and other downstream industries of PE have insufficient new orders [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Weak oscillation. The price range of L2601 is 6600 - 7000. The strategy is to short on rallies [10]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: No basis strategy; 1 - 5 reverse spread; short - term hedging arbitrage space is limited, and in the long - term, consider narrowing the L - P spread on the 05 contract [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [11]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: On Wednesday, affected by the news of gas restrictions on Iranian devices, the methanol futures market strengthened, and polyolefins briefly followed the upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - The start - up situation of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [12]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: This week, the futures market oscillated downward. The open interest increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top five long and short positions on the order book. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly increased [17]. - **Basis structure**: The spot situation in East China improved and prices stabilized, but the situations in North and South China were still weak. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 32 yuan/ton (strengthened by 47 compared with last week), in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+107), and in South China was 248 yuan/ton (- 3) [20]. - **Spread structure**: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic market expectation for the subsequent macro - situation and the limited start - up of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed. Currently, the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. Since PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, short - term losses usually do not lead to unexpected shutdowns, so PE lacks strong cost - side support in a downward market [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of PE is difficult to change. On the supply side, although device maintenance has increased recently, the high inventory capacity and the upcoming start - up of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, as well as the expected increase in imports after October, will further increase the total supply of PE. On the demand side, although the production and sales of agricultural films are still good, the subsequent growth is limited, and the support from other downstream industries of PE will gradually weaken [31]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Its Deduction - The current PE start - up rate is 82.56% (+1.69%). Multiple devices such as Fushun Petrochemical and ExxonMobil restarted at the beginning of the month, and the device maintenance volume decreased. It is expected that the device maintenance volume will continue to decrease, and with the upcoming start - up of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices, the supply pressure of PE will remain high [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Its Deduction - **Import**: The overseas market is in a loose pattern, and the continuous decline in PE prices has led to an influx of low - price goods into China. Therefore, PE imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Export**: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the total volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [43]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Its Deduction - The current average start - up rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (- 0.52%). The agricultural film industry is still in the peak season, but the start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. As the year - end approaches, the growth space for demand is limited, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up has weakened [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week's PP trend remains weak, and the PE trend still faces pressure. Trade - war, oil - price factors, high - supply factors, and low - profit factors of downstream processed products together create downward pressure on the PP trend. For PE, raw - material crude oil is suppressed, and the supply - demand pattern is not optimistic [6][8]. - In the long - term, the downward - driving factors of PP are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the trend remains weak. The future supply pressure of PE will increase while the demand is weak, and the market still has pressure [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 View Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, China's PP production was 79.65 tons, a 0.92% increase from last week and a 19.06% increase from the same period last year. Next week, the planned maintenance loss of PP is expected to decline significantly, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise to around 79.2% [7]. - **Demand**: The average starting rate of the PP downstream industry showed an upward trend this week. With the end of "Double 11", the demand for packaging industries such as CPP and PP non - woven fabrics slowed down. The starting rate of the modified PP and PP pipe industries increased. Next week, the starting rate of PP product industries may decline slightly [7]. - **View**: The market is suppressed by weak demand and high supply, and the long - term trend is weak. The base difference and monthly difference are weak, and the short - term valuation is neutral to weak. The low profits of MTO and PDH devices limit the market's downward space [5]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, with an upper pressure of 6500 - 6550 and a lower support of 6200 - 6250; short - term cross - period trading is to buy 05 and sell 01; no cross - variety trading is recommended [5]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese PE production enterprises is 82.59%, a 1.72% increase from the previous period. Due to the restart of some devices, the capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: The overall starting rate of the PE downstream industry is mixed. The starting rate of agricultural films has reached its annual high, with limited room for further increase. The starting rates of PE packaging films, PE pipes, and PE hollow products have declined [8]. - **View**: Raw - material crude oil is under pressure, and PE lacks cost support. The supply - demand pattern is not optimistic, and the future supply pressure will increase while the demand is weak, so the market still has pressure [8]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, with an upper pressure of 6900 and lower supports of 6800 and 6600 for the 01 contract; no cross - period and cross - variety trading is recommended [8]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The powder - granule price difference of PP rebounds, and the copolymer - drawing price difference weakens [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate of PP this period is 77.78%, a 0.72% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec is 75.77%, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [23]. - **Device Maintenance**: In November, the PP maintenance is relatively low, and the restart of maintenance devices suppresses the rebound space [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new PP capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5%. The production pressure this year is relatively large [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories of PP have increased month - on - month. The total commercial inventory of Chinese PP is 89.31 tons, a 2.19% increase from the previous period [28][32]. - **Cost**: The oil price has declined, and the oil - based production cost of PP has decreased [33]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production have increased, but the overall profit levels of MTO, PDH, oil - based, and coal - based devices are still low [39][40]. - **Downstream**: The starting rate of BOPP is stable, the order days decline, and the finished - product inventory is at a high level; the profit of BOPP has slightly recovered but is still at a low level over the years. The starting rate of tape master rolls is stable, and the order days decline. The starting rate of plastic weaving remains the same, and the order days increase. The starting rate of non - woven fabrics remains the same, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. The starting rate of CPP increases, and the order days increase [41][44][48][50][55][58]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL price difference of PE oscillates and declines, and the HD - LL price difference oscillates and rises [67]. - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: The starting rate and output of PE have declined month - on - month. This week, the total PE output in China is 66.07 tons, a 2.67% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 82.59%, a 1.72% increase from the previous period [68][70]. - **Device Maintenance**: In November, the PE maintenance loss is less than that in October [71]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new PE capacity is 543 tons, with a capacity increase of 15.2% [72]. - **Inventory**: The production - enterprise inventory of PE has increased month - on - month, and the social inventory has decreased month - on - month. The sample inventory of Chinese PE production enterprises is 49.02 tons, a 17.84% increase from the previous period [74][77]. - **Cost**: The oil price has declined, and the oil - based production cost of PE has decreased [79]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE production devices has declined [86]. - **Downstream**: The starting rate and order days of agricultural films have increased month - on - month; the starting rate and order days of packaging films have decreased month - on - month; the starting rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period in previous years [88][89][90].