Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on December 2, with Weike Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Top Gainers in the Plastic Sector - Ningbo Color Master (301019) saw a closing price of 26.94, with an increase of 11.00% and a trading volume of 186,700 shares, totaling 479 million yuan [1] - Daoming Optics (002632) closed at 15.05, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 70,100 shares, amounting to 106 million yuan [1] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) closed at 9.23, also up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 1,470,200 shares, totaling 1.321 billion yuan [1] Top Decliners in the Plastic Sector - Weike Technology (301196) closed at 75.49, down 4.32%, with a trading volume of 42,100 shares, totaling 321 million yuan [2] - Foshan Plastics (000973) closed at 13.02, down 3.84%, with a trading volume of 1,276,000 shares, amounting to 1.708 billion yuan [2] - Fula New Materials (605488) closed at 33.79, down 3.32%, with a trading volume of 91,400 shares, totaling 311 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in the Plastic Sector - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 134 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 42.5 million yuan [2][3] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) had a net inflow of 117 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 69.87 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Ningbo Color Master (301019) recorded a net inflow of 41.51 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 53.33 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Supply Side - The supply side is expected to remain loose, with limited maintenance scheduled in December, leading to an increase in total supply [1][2] - New capacities from Exxon, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical totaling 1.3 million tons are coming online, contributing to supply pressure [2] - Overall production is projected to be 684,000 tons in the next period, a slight decrease of 0.08 million tons from the current period [2] Demand Side - Demand is weakening as the northern greenhouse film demand is nearing its end, and southern greenhouse production is limited with few new orders [3] - The packaging film sector is experiencing slow follow-up orders after previous completions, with most factories already having stock, leading to a bearish market sentiment [3] Profit Side - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate downward, further weakening cost support, while oil-based costs are anticipated to decline [4] - Coal-based costs remain stable, but natural gas prices are rising, increasing PDH production costs [4] Valuation - The supply side remains loose, with minimal changes in cost dynamics and weakening demand, resulting in low absolute prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dongcai Technology's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 165.19%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Dongcai Technology achieved a revenue of 3.803 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.18% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 283 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.80% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 2, Dongcai Technology's stock price was 19.73 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 651 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.20% [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 12 [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 52,300, up by 60.68% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 29.34% to 19,464 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Dongcai Technology has distributed a total of 1.107 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 317 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth largest circulating shareholder, holding 19.942 million shares, an increase of 6.6923 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated a final review investigation of anti-dumping measures on imported polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) from Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia, following a request from Zhejiang Xinheng Special Materials Co., Ltd. [2] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of a final review investigation on November 30, 2025, regarding anti-dumping measures applicable to imported PPS from Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia [2]. - During the investigation period, the anti-dumping duties will continue to be levied according to the rates specified in previous announcements from 2020, 2021, and 2022 [2]. - The anti-dumping tax rates for various companies are as follows: - Japan: 26.9% to 69.1% - United States: 214.1% to 220.9% - South Korea: 26.4% to 32.7% - Malaysia: 40.5% [4] Group 2: Product Description and Applications - Polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) is a high-performance thermoplastic resin characterized by a molecular chain containing phenyl sulfide, known for its excellent properties such as high-temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, radiation resistance, flame retardancy, and electrical insulation [2]. - PPS is widely used in various industries, including textiles, automotive, electronics, machinery, petroleum, chemical, and aerospace [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with daily K - line focusing on support around 6750 and resistance around 6870 [2]. - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply pressure is on the rise as new capacity is planned to be put into operation in December. Downstream开工率 is expected to weaken marginally. International oil prices are in a multi - empty game [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene contracts increased, with the 1 - month contract at 6803 yuan/ton (up 14), the 5 - month contract at 6863 yuan/ton (up 6), and the 9 - month contract at 6892 yuan/ton (up 10). Trading volume was 305073 hands (down 25026), and open interest was 434382 hands (down 23011). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 (up 8). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 98574 hands (down 5841) [2]. b. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6814.78 yuan/ton (up 10.43), and in East China was 7070.24 yuan/ton (down 6.67). The basis was 11.78 (down 3.57) [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.85 dollars/barrel (up 0.61), and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 dollars/ton (up 5.5). The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Northeast Asia was 741 dollars/ton (up 10) [2]. d. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 84.51% (up 1.79) [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.7% (down 0.23), 31.83% (down 0.17), and 49.04% (down 0.87) respectively [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.49% (up 1.06), the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.54% (up 0.68), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.17%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.16% (down 3.52) [2]. g. Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, China's polyethylene production was 684800 tons (up 2.17% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.51% (up 1.8 percentage points). The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.4%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased by 9.80% to 454000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3.05% to 471100 tons [2]. - From November 22nd to 28th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 1.54% to 7173 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 63.57 yuan/ton to - 346.14 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.26% to 7066 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 95.14 yuan/ton to - 237.43 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a rise of 0.81% on December 1, with Cangzhou Mingzhu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant increases, with Cangzhou Mingzhu rising by 10.00% to a closing price of 5.17 [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 306 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 349 million yuan [2] - The top stocks by main fund inflow included Guofeng New Materials with 286 million yuan and Cangzhou Mingzhu with 143 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Cangzhou Mingzhu and Guofeng New Materials, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently characterized by low valuation and weak drivers. The supply side is expected to see an increase in production in December due to fewer maintenance plans and new production capacity. The demand side is weak, mainly due to the continued downturn in the real estate industry and the approaching off - season. However, the cancellation of anti - dumping policies and BIS certification in India will increase exports and relieve some domestic supply pressure. The PVC price may oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply: Maintenance Plans Decrease, Expected Output to Continue Increasing - In November, there were still some PVC enterprises under maintenance, but the number decreased compared to October, and the overall operating rate increased. In December, there are still plans for new production by individual enterprises, which will further expand the production capacity base. With fewer PVC production enterprises having maintenance plans in China, the operating rate has increased, and the overall supply pressure will continue to increase [2][5][20]. - The operating rate of PVC production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a relatively high level overall, including both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production methods [8]. 2. Demand: Real Estate Construction to Gradually Decline, Expected Decline in the Operating Rate of Pipes and Profiles - Domestic real estate construction is still weak. As the weather gets colder, data on cement shipments and apparent demand for rebar indicate a weakening of real estate construction. Affected by the off - season of downstream demand and the continued downturn in the real estate industry, the operating rate of product enterprises is low, and overall demand is poor. Product enterprises mainly purchase goods based on rigid demand at low prices and have a strong wait - and - see attitude. - In terms of exports, the cancellation of anti - dumping policies and BIS certification in India will increase China's export volume and relieve some domestic supply pressure [2]. - There is an expectation of a rebound in real - estate transactions at the end of the year [35]. 3. Inventory: Supply - demand Pressure Remains, Total Inventory Oscillates at a High Level - The fundamentals still show strong supply and weak demand. With the expectation of a further decline in downstream demand and a continued deterioration in terminal enterprise orders, the PVC inventory digestion ability will continue to weaken [45]. 4. Spread: Expected Narrow - range Oscillation of the Basis - The basis is expected to oscillate in a narrow range. The futures price has continued to decline, and the basis has been repaired compared to before, with the hedging space narrowing [2]. 5. Profit: Weak Profit Performance of Calcium Carbide - based and Ethylene - based Production - The profit performance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production is weak [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of polyolefins is at a relatively low level, and polyolefins tend to fluctuate at the bottom. In December, the supply will increase while the demand will weaken, resulting in high pressure to transfer inventory downstream. However, since the monthly spread is already at the lowest level in the past five years, if the crude oil price remains relatively stable, polyolefins will tend to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 12 - month refinery maintenance decreases, and supply gradually rebounds - **PE**: In November, the number of unit overhauls decreased, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. In December, the overhauls remained low. The 500,000 - ton/year low - pressure unit of BASF is planned to be put into production at the end of the year, with limited impact on linear PE. The PE output is expected to be around 2.75 million tons [3] - **PP**: In November, the number of overhauled units decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained relatively stable at around 78%. The output increased significantly year - on - year, and the domestic supply was relatively sufficient. In December, although there were no new units, the overhauled units resumed production one after another, and the output is expected to increase to around 3.3 million tons [3] 3.2 Demand: Demand gradually weakens in December - **PE**: In November, it was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the start - up rate remained high, but the start - up rates of other downstream industries began to decline. In December, the demand for agricultural film entered the off - season, and the demand is expected to continue to decline [3][19] - **PP**: In December, the traditional demand is expected to enter the off - season. Plastic weaving and injection molding manufacturers are affected by the winter consumption off - season, with fewer orders and cautious procurement. The demand is expected to decline [3][26] 3.3 Inventory: Refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains high - **PE**: At the end of November, the overall social inventory was at a normal level, and the petrochemical inventory was slightly higher than that of the same period last year. It is still in the stage of active inventory reduction [3][37] - **PP**: The supply is at a high level. Although refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the total inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The pressure to reduce inventory in December remains high [3][53] 3.4 Spread: Basis weakens - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds slightly but is at the lowest level in the past five years due to high supply pressure [62][69] - **PP**: The basis strengthens, and the monthly spread continues to weaken due to high supply pressure [81][87] 3.5 Profit: Coal - based profits weaken, and oil - based profits fluctuate slightly - **PE**: Both oil - based and coal - based production profits have declined [101] - **PP**: The production profits from different raw materials show different trends, and the overall situation is complex [106]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。 | | | | （1）聚丙烯下游平均开工上涨0.26个百分点至53.83%。近期包装行业继电商节后订单萎缩，市场需求不佳，行业开工多稳中下行。随着天气寒冷加剧， | | 需求 | 偏多 | 流感等呼吸道疾病进入高发阶段，市场对口罩、消毒湿巾等防护用品的消耗量大幅增长，PP无纺布行业开工+0.58%。西北地区集中建筑施工活动依旧， | | | | 且地暖系统安装与维护需求进入高峰，二 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,700, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,400. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - PP faces high trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,789 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The average price of LDPE was 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The average price of HDPE was 7,387.90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,188.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. The LLDPE South China basis was 399.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.60%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7) [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+21), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton (-14) [18]. - **Spot Price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics had various price changes on November 28, 2025, with some showing increases and others decreases [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 337 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 237 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.51%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 68.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.16%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.68 tons, a decrease of 1.27 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [36]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.04%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.70%, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.83%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 39.1%, with a difference of 3.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 10%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 47.11 tons, a decrease of 1.48 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.05% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,546 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products and related products had various price changes on November 28, 2025 [52][55]. - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,363.33 yuan/ton (-43.34). The PP basis was - 46 yuan/ton (-95), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36) [57]. - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 14 yuan/ton (+29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (-65) [60]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 598.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.39 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 579.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.13 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.01% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [78]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 53.83% (+0.26). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.10% (-0.14%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.87% (-0.19%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.17% (+2.04%) [80]. - **Production Ratio**: Different PP product production ratios had various changes from November 24 - 28, 2025 [86]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 246.96 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.50 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 12.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory this week was 54.63 tons (-8.00%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 7.88% month - on - month, the inventory of traders decreased by 6.04% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 0.76% month - on - month [90]. - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises this week was 990.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%. The BOPP raw material inventory was 10.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 3.64% [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,866 lots, an increase of 133 lots from the previous week [103].