2024年，牧原股份、温氏股份归母净利润扭亏为盈，新希望归母净利润实现大幅增长。业内人士指出，随着养殖技术进步和规模化程度提升，生猪养殖行业进入成 本驱动的高质量发展阶段。头部企业通过降本增效、技术革新及金融工具运用，增强抗风险能力。 多家猪企业绩扭亏为盈 近日，牧原股份公布的业绩显示，2024年，公司实现营业总收入1379.47亿元，同比增长24.43%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润178.81亿元，扭亏为盈。今年一季 度，牧原股份实现营业收入360.61亿元，同比增长37.26%；实现归母净利润44.91亿元，扭亏为盈。 | 证券简称 | 2024年营业 总收入（亿 元) | 2024年归属母 公司股东的净利 润(亿元) | 2025年一季度营 业总收入 (亿元) | 2025年一季度归 属母公司股东的 净利润(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 1379.47 | 178.81 | 360.61 | 44.91 | | 温氏股份 | 1049.24 | 92.30 | 243.31 | 20.01 | | 新希望 | 1030.63 | 4.74 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the SW Agriculture sector achieved a total profit of 13.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1049%, with significant contributions from the breeding, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors, accounting for 59%, 16%, and 15% of profits respectively [10][11] - The breeding sector saw a profit of 8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 254%, driven primarily by pig farming, which generated 7.615 billion yuan, up 242% year-on-year [10][11] - The feed and animal health sectors reported profits of 2.143 billion yuan and 512 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 676% and 34% [10][11] - The planting sector experienced a profit of 800 million yuan, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, influenced by declining grain prices [10][11] Summary by Sections Breeding Sector - The average price of lean pigs was 14.69 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork was 20.59 yuan/kg, down 1.4% [12][13] - The profit from self-breeding pigs decreased to 85.05 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 48.53 yuan per head [14][15] - The average price of broiler chickens was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous week, and the average price of chicken products remained stable at 8.9 yuan/kg [25][27] Feed and Animal Health - The feed sector's profit growth was supported by the performance of the breeding sector, with significant increases in profits from poultry and aquatic feeds [10][11] - The pet food segment also showed strong performance, achieving a profit of 330 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [10] Planting Sector - The planting sector's profit decline was attributed to lower prices for corn and wheat, which fell by 11% and 14% year-on-year, respectively [10][11] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [11] Market Trends - The agriculture sector underperformed the broader market by 0.1 percentage points, with a decline of 0.6% [8][9] - The feed sector saw a slight increase of 1.65% during the same period [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [15] Core Views - The pig farming sector shows significant profitability but with large disparities due to cost differences, leading to a "stronger becoming stronger" scenario [19][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a structural decline in production capacity, with a focus on the white chicken segment as it approaches its lowest point [22][24] - The seed industry faces inventory pressure, but the biological breeding sector is expected to accelerate due to supportive policies [29][30] - The pet industry is witnessing rapid growth of domestic brands, with a focus on high-income growth companies [32][33] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to improving market demand and cost control capabilities [34] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - Q1 sales prices for pigs were low, averaging 14.5-15.5 CNY/kg, down from 16-17 CNY/kg in Q4 2024 [19] - Companies like Shennong and Juxing saw over 60% year-on-year growth in output [19] - Average profit per pig improved significantly, with leading companies achieving profits of 300-350 CNY per head [19][21] - Some companies are returning cash to shareholders with high dividend payout ratios [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is under pressure, with significant price declines and narrowing profits [22] - The egg-laying chicken sector is benefiting from rising chick prices and sales, with companies like Xiaoming showing substantial profit growth [28] - The yellow chicken segment is experiencing a supply contraction, with demand expected to improve gradually [26][27] Seed Industry - The seed sector is under pressure with a net profit decline of 37.6% in Q1, primarily due to excess supply [29] - High R&D investment is noted, with leading companies like Longping High-Tech maintaining a strong position [29][30] - New regulations are expected to bolster the biological breeding sector, enhancing competitiveness [30][31] Pet Industry - Major pet food companies reported strong revenue growth, with brands like Maifudi leading the market [32] - The demand for elderly pet care products is increasing significantly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [32] - The pet economy is thriving, with a focus on high-growth domestic brands [33] Feed Sector - The feed sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Haida Group showing improved revenue and profit [34] - The market for aquaculture feed is expected to recover, driven by rising fish prices and supportive consumption policies [34] Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is experiencing revenue and profit differentiation, with some companies benefiting from price increases in raw materials [35] - New product opportunities in the pet health segment are emerging, providing potential growth avenues [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing a feed-saving initiative in the livestock sector to promote food conservation and establish a diversified food supply system, aiming for significant reductions in feed consumption by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Goals and Targets - By 2030, the average feed consumption per kilogram of animal products in standardized large-scale farming is targeted to decrease by over 0.2 kilograms compared to 2023, representing a reduction of over 7% [1] - The development capacity of non-grain feed resources, including microbial protein feed and insect protein feed, is expected to exceed 10 million tons, with an additional 40 million tons of high-quality forage produced compared to 2023 [1] - The proportion of grain used in total feed consumption in the livestock sector is aimed to drop to around 60%, with soybean meal usage reduced to about 10% [1] Group 2: Key Tasks - The initiative emphasizes promoting feed-saving technologies, maximizing the use of non-grain feed resources, and accelerating the production of high-quality forage [1] - It includes guiding the optimization of livestock breed structures and continuously innovating and promoting integrated technologies [1] - The establishment of a leadership group for the feed-saving initiative and the involvement of provincial agricultural departments to tailor and implement measures accordingly [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.115 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 148 million yuan, a significant increase of 338.3% year-on-year [1] - The chicken segment showed resilience with sales of 303,000 tons, up 3.1% year-on-year, despite a decline in average selling price by 4% to 9,759 yuan per ton [2] - The company has successfully optimized its customer and channel structure, maintaining a price premium of 630 yuan per ton over the industry average for two consecutive quarters [2] - Cost control measures have led to a 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to profitability in the chicken segment [2] - The deep processing food business generated 1.89 billion yuan in revenue, a slight decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, but the C-end retail sector experienced over 30% growth [3] - Investment income increased by 203.4% to 30 million yuan, primarily due to strong performance from the joint venture, Sun Valley [3] - The company expects net profits of 990 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.1%, 6.8%, and 13.8% [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 21.232 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 993 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.1% [5] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.80 yuan per share for 2025 [5] - The company maintains a P/E ratio of 20.7 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant development and transformation of Xinjiang, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, as it becomes a key area for international trade and cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative [1][4]. Group 1: Company Development - The company founded by Dani, a Belgian entrepreneur, has expanded from one production base to four, achieving an annual sales volume exceeding 40,000 tons of water-soluble fertilizers [2]. - The company has improved over 2 million acres of saline-alkali land, contributing to the agricultural productivity of the region [2]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - Xinjiang's agricultural sector has undergone a historic transformation, with advancements in soil improvement, water-saving irrigation, and mechanized harvesting [3]. - The introduction of high-quality fertilizers has enhanced crop yields, while organic waste from livestock can be converted back into natural fertilizers, creating a sustainable agricultural cycle [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The company plans to expand its market beyond domestic sales to Central Asian countries, leveraging Xinjiang's strategic position as a core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt [4]. - The entrepreneur is also exploring the introduction of Belgian Blue cattle to improve local livestock quality and economic benefits [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a steady decline in costs and has sufficient breeding stock reserves, indicating a strong potential for high earnings realization [5][6] - The first quarter of 2025 reported revenue of 1.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, up 193.91% year-on-year [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 918 million, 1.411 billion, and 2.383 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.80, 2.77, and 4.67 yuan [5][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.52 billion yuan from pig farming, with a total of 833,000 pigs sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.40% [6] - The complete cost of production in Q1 2025 was 13.38 yuan per kilogram, with a target to keep the annual cost below 13 yuan per kilogram [6] - As of March 2025, the company had a breeding stock of 176,000 pigs, with expectations to exceed 230,000 by the end of the year [6] Leather Business - The leather business reported a revenue of 54 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant increase of 280% year-on-year, contributing to a reduction in losses [7] - The company has a strong cash position with 615 million yuan in cash and a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.88% [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 20.04 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10.222 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 11.1, 7.2, and 4.3 respectively [5][9]

农林牧渔/养殖业 新希望（000876.SZ） 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.66 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 11.88/8.16 | | 总市值(亿元) | 437.21 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 434.67 | | 总股本(亿股) | 45.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 45.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 81.68 | 股价走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 新希望 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《生猪养殖利润修复，饲料业务经营 稳健—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.4 《猪业饲料双轮驱动，周期上行盈利 修复—公司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《饲料业务量利稳增，生猪养殖推进 降本增效 —公司信息更新报告》 -2024.5.6 生猪养殖逐步优化，海外饲料拓展顺利 ——公司信息更新报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing measures to continuously adjust and optimize pig production capacity, focusing on controlling the breeding sow inventory and guiding farmers in optimizing their breeding structures [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Ministry has issued a notice regarding the "Implementation Plan for the Feed Saving Action in Animal Husbandry," which emphasizes the need for ongoing adjustments to pig production capacity [1] - A production capacity regulation plan will be implemented to manage the breeding sow inventory effectively, referred to as the "total switch" for breeding sows [1] Group 2: Market Guidance - The Ministry aims to enhance the monitoring and early warning system for pig production capacity, ensuring timely market information is released [1] - Farmers will be guided on optimal timing for market release and scale of breeding operations to better match supply and demand [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term disturbances from trade tensions [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while short-term trade tensions may impact certain agricultural products, the long-term outlook remains manageable through diversification of import sources and enhancing self-sufficiency [6][14]. - The Chinese agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" which emphasizes food security and agricultural competitiveness [6][14]. Summary by Sections Trade Tensions - Recent data shows that the proportion of agricultural imports from the U.S. has decreased, with 2024 imports from the U.S. accounting for approximately 6.3% of total imports, down from 8.3% in 2017 [6][14]. - The report notes that most agricultural products have low import dependency, while a few, such as soybeans and sorghum, are more reliant on imports, particularly from the U.S. [6][14]. Meat Products - China is a major producer of pork, with a projected production of 57 million tons in 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of global production [18][20]. - The report anticipates a recovery in China's pig production capacity in 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate, initially declining before rising later in the year [39][40]. - Chicken production in China is projected to reach 15.5 million tons in 2025, with low import dependency, particularly from the U.S. [41][46]. Grain Products - China ranks second globally in corn production, with a projected output of 294.92 million tons in 2024/25, while maintaining a low import dependency [75][78]. - The report indicates that corn prices have shown signs of recovery, with domestic prices reaching 2285.29 yuan per ton as of April 2025 [79][80]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the agricultural sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [6][14].