上证指数又重新站上3600点了，市场反弹的股票也特别多，银行回调的情况下，创业板的表现比A股好。不出意外的情况下，大家开始质疑自己了。 目前，大盘指数已经没有压力位了，3674点不用看。银行、白酒如果同时上涨只需要几分钟就可以突破了。大家的情绪会慢慢回暖，指数已经越来越高了。 大家只需要做好准备，指数会迎来新的节奏，牛市最危险的不是回调，而是提前下车。目前的情况很简单，行业轮动上涨，大盘指数慢慢创新高。 A股走势分析 不出意外，大盘指数有自己的节奏，市场开始反复波动。行业震荡向上，大盘指数波动越来越剧烈了，今日没有跳水，说明指数依旧还有上涨的空间。 指数牛！ 目前，指数开始从大盘指数切换到行业指数上涨了，医疗、稀有金属、证券等指数大幅反弹了，地产、白酒、煤炭也回暖了。 上证指数目前每涨10%的情况下，很多股票都可以涨30%以上，行业指数也可以。现阶段无论是指数与股票都可以参与了，涨幅都会很可观，也是行情最肥 美的一段了。 不要质疑行情，大家越是不相信上涨的情况下，市场越有可能大幅拉升。当前的位置不需要悲观，股市有自己的逻辑，大家越不看好的情况下，市场越有可 能大涨。 4月初是今年最好的抄底位置，不过大家都很恐 ...

2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 644.0 1.0 11.0 26.0 -206.0 25省终端可用天数 22.3 0.4 2.4 1.4 4.7 秦皇岛5000 581.0 1.0 11.0 36.0 -174.0 25省终端供煤 588.8 -7.7 -19.7 -51.2 -34.0 广州港5500 730.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 -185.0 北方港库存 2700.0 -12.0 5.0 -163.0 184.1 鄂尔多斯5500 425.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 -205.0 北方锚地船舶 115.0 1.0 28.0 33.0 54.0 大同5500 500.0 0.0 15.0 40.0 -190.0 北方港调入量 146.1 -20.1 9.7 -25.9 -5.6 榆林6000 562.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 -271.0 北方港吞吐量 176.3 8.1 26.7 25.2 21.7 榆林6200 ...

Group 1 - The company aims to integrate spiritual civilization construction with production operations, corporate culture, and team building to support high-quality development [1][4] - Activities such as "micro party classes before shifts" and "safety thought education month" are regularly conducted to make theoretical education more relatable [4] - The company promotes a culture of recognition through awards for "civilized teams" and "civilized individuals," enhancing motivation and engagement among employees [4][8] Group 2 - The company focuses on improving the work environment and addressing employee concerns through initiatives like "sending coolness" and "sending warmth," ensuring employees share in the development benefits [8] - Various cultural activities, including basketball games and volunteer services, are organized to enrich employees' spiritual lives and encourage dedication to their work [8] - The company highlights the achievements of exemplary teams, such as the electromechanical maintenance workshop, to promote a spirit of innovation and hard work [8][9] Group 3 - The company actively innovates in spiritual civilization construction, aligning it with contemporary needs and environmental policies in the coal industry [9] - Initiatives include promoting green development through "lighting and greening" themes and enhancing moral education to strengthen employee ethics [9] - The company celebrates significant events, such as the 104th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party, to foster a sense of community and shared purpose among employees [9][12] Group 4 - The company plans to deepen spiritual civilization construction, using it as a driving force for action and development, ensuring a synergistic relationship between material and spiritual progress [12]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3274 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅 1%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 下跌 20 元/吨至 3110 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3340 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.09 万 | | | | 吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 1.18 万吨至 418.02 万吨，社库回升 7.98 万吨至 546.62 万吨， | | | | 厂库回落 25.17 万吨至 305.76 万吨，建材表需回升 39.45 万吨至 435.21 万吨。建材产量小幅回落，库存再 | | | | 次转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。近期反内卷、大基建等政策面消息不断，在很大程度上提振市场情绪， | | | | 不过市场现实供需有所趋弱。预计短期螺纹盘面将转入震荡整理走势。 | ...

"行情说来就来，资金推动着市场，涨停一片，这是近几年熊市从未看到过的景象。三连板的表现，让 人有点猝不及防。"抓到这一波做多焦煤期货机会的投资者刘云感慨道。 经济观察报 记者 陈姗 本周以来，焦煤期货连续三日上演"涨停接力赛"，空头惨遭洗劫，多头情绪彻底沸腾。 7月21日，焦煤期货吹响冲锋号，主力合约2509日内斩获大阳线，涨幅达7.88%，其余合约均涨停； 次日行情走势更趋疯狂，焦煤全部合约日内封涨停，夜盘时段多头乘胜追击，近月三个合约再度暴力拉 涨11%； 7月23日开盘后，各合约虽出现震荡回落，但尾盘多头再度集结，近月三个合约再度封死涨停板，主力 合约2509最新报1135.5元/吨，站上近4个月新高。 7月22日午间，一则有关"煤矿生产核查"的通知在市场中传播，这也被认为是引爆本轮焦煤行情的导火 索。 本周仅三个交易日，焦煤期货主力合约累计上涨22.62%。同时，二级市场上的煤炭ETF和煤炭股也同步 掀起大涨行情。 7月23日下午，长期从事黑色商品期货交易的于先生向记者表示："这几天我一直在盯着它（焦煤期货） 看，但参与交易的仓位很少，因为它的价格有点儿太不正常了。"数据显示，焦煤主力合约自6月初低点 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that most primary industries in the A-share market are experiencing intense competition, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector compared to upstream resource products [1] - It notes that the willingness to expand production has dropped to a low point across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1] - The report emphasizes different signals for capacity clearance in traditional versus emerging industries, focusing on improving expansion capabilities for traditional sectors and low expansion willingness for emerging sectors [1] Existing Capacity Utilization Levels - The methodology for measuring industry capacity utilization is based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, assessing the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor conditions [8] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historical low levels of capacity utilization, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [8][9] Potential Incremental Capacity Levels - The report evaluates potential new capacity based on two dimensions: willingness to expand and capacity to expand. The willingness is measured by the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation, indicating active investment in expansion [9] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historical low levels of expansion willingness, with only utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals showing relatively strong willingness [9] - The capacity to expand is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow conditions, with most primary industries at historical mid-high levels of expansion capacity [9] Historical Capacity Clearance Patterns - Emerging industries signal clearance through cash capability and low expansion willingness. The report references the solar industry's overcapacity from 2011 to 2015, where capacity utilization rapidly declined and remained low until cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to zero [10][12] - Traditional industries signal clearance through improvements in cash capability. The steel and coal industries experienced a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, with capacity utilization showing a "V" shape trajectory [12] Current Capacity Clearance Trajectories - In the current cycle, the lithium battery and solar sectors have reached low capacity utilization levels, with both showing expansion willingness near the 0% percentile over the past decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels [25] - Traditional resource sectors are not facing severe overcapacity issues as seen in previous cycles, with steel and coal industries nearing 2019 low points in capacity utilization, although signs of cash capability improvement are emerging in basic chemicals and steel [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the overall market value of A - share holdings of active equity - oriented funds decreased, while that of H - share holdings increased. The industry concentration of the top heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries saw significant increases in allocation ratios, while the steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios [4][6]. - The structure of the top heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The overall number of large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the holdings of sub - industry leaders increased. The new high - growth technology stocks related to AI emerged, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks were significantly reduced [4]. - In terms of industry leaders, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes: communication and hardware upstream under AI diffusion, non - bank finance, new consumption in the Hong Kong stock market, and national defense and military industry [26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q2 Active Fund Heavy - Stock Holding Structure Overview - **A - share and H - share holdings changes**: In Q2 2025, the total market value of active equity - oriented fund heavy - stock holdings was 1736.2 billion yuan, a 1.66% QoQ decrease. A - share holdings decreased by 2.79% QoQ to 1394.8 billion yuan, while H - share holdings increased by 3.20% QoQ to 341.3 billion yuan. Due to the complex macro - economic environment and market volatility, funds faced redemption pressure and tended to reduce large - cap stocks with poor liquidity [6]. - **Industry concentration decline**: From Q1 to Q2 2025, the industry concentration of the heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. CR3 decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 38.37%, and CR5 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 51.18%. The top five industries in terms of holding market value remained the same, but the proportion of the electronics industry increased, while the other four industries decreased [4][7]. - **Structural adjustment of industry holdings**: In Q2 2025, 12 industries saw an increase in the total market value of holdings. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries had large increases in allocation ratios, rising by 75.88%, 64.62%, and 38.37% respectively. The steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios, decreasing by 46.32%, 26.16%, and 23.99% respectively [9] 3.2 Q2 Active Fund Top Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Change in the structure of top heavy - stocks**: In Q2 2025, the structure of the top 20 heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the sub - industry leaders increased. The market value of the top 20 heavy - stocks accounted for 20.72% of all heavy - stocks, a 2% decrease from Q1 [12]. - **Changes in the top five heavy - stocks**: The top five heavy - stocks remained the same, but the overall holdings decreased. New high - growth technology stocks such as New Fiber Optic Technology and Inphi Corporation quickly rose in the rankings, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks such as Luxshare Precision Industry, Midea Group, and Contemporary Amperex Technology were significantly reduced [4]. - **Hong Kong stock market adjustment**: In the Hong Kong stock market, AI and Internet media leaders were reduced, while the pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors that performed well in Q2 were significantly increased [18] 3.3 Q2 Industry Leader Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Industry leader allocation changes**: In Q2 2025, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - **Communication industry focus**: Driven by the booming demand for AI hardware, the communication industry became the focus of funds. The optical module sector, which benefits from the expansion of AI capital expenditure, was the main area for increasing communication heavy - stocks. The profitability of communication equipment is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year [22]. - **Non - bank finance sector highlights**: The leaders of the non - bank finance sector attracted attention. The holdings of Ping An Insurance and CPIC increased by 55% and 41% respectively, and securities leaders such as Citic Securities and Huatai Securities also saw over 30% increases. The brokerage sector's performance is expected to continue to improve [23] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **AI diffusion - related communication and hardware upstream**: The significant increase in the holdings of optical module leaders reflects that funds are extending from AI software to computing infrastructure. AI capital expenditure is expected to drive the performance of upstream sectors in the second half of the year [26]. - **Non - bank finance sector**: The concentrated increase in holdings of leaders such as Citic Securities and Ping An Insurance reflects the positive expectations of the market for the profitability improvement of the brokerage and insurance sectors. The non - bank finance sector is expected to achieve a resonance of valuation repair and performance recovery [26]. - **Hong Kong stock new consumption theme**: After the correction in the AI sector, funds refocused on consumption structure highlights, especially in the Hong Kong stock market. Sub - sectors such as pets, toys, and emotional consumption have become important directions for heavy - stock allocation [26]. - **National defense and military industry safety theme**: The significant increase in the holdings of core military stocks reflects the high attention of institutions to the "national security + high - end manufacturing" theme. The military industry has policy support, order growth, and mid - report performance improvement expectations, with medium - term allocation value [27]

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 24 日 逻辑：昨日，焦煤期货价格延续涨势，尾盘涨停收盘。钢矿价格反弹 表现乏力，将对煤价上涨形成压力。现货市场维持偏强，焦炭第 2 轮提涨 陆续落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 7 月份以来，一系列利多消息刺激，叠加基本面供需有所改善，市场 看涨情绪爆发。7 月初中央财经委员会明确反对行业内卷化竞争，首次释 放"激发合理涨价与优化产能"的政策信号；7 月 18 日工信部新闻发布 会宣布，将在煤炭、钢铁、化工、有色等十大重点领域推行"稳增长与去 产能"协同政策；本周流传的国家能源局发布煤炭超产核查文件进一步引 爆行情。煤价连续拉涨后，继续上行阻力增加。 原材料：程 鹏 从基本面来看，主产地煤矿延续复产节奏，部分区域虽仍有零星停产、 减产，但整体产量仍继续小幅增长，市场投机补库需求集中释放，部分产 地焦煤呈现供不应求态势。需求端，近期焦化厂 ...

Group 1 - The core logic behind the recent surge in commodity futures is attributed to the "economic recovery expectations + supply rigidity + liquidity premium" [3] - The main contracts for polysilicon and coking coal have shown remarkable performance, with polysilicon prices rising over 70% from just above 30,000 yuan/ton to over 50,000 yuan/ton in less than a month [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon, coke, glass, and soda ash have also experienced significant rebounds, with industrial silicon prices reaching over 10,000 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 50% increase from early June [1] Group 2 - The recent collective rise in commodity futures is driving an investment trend in related industries, fueled by supply-demand dynamics and policy guidance [4] - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition, which is interpreted as potentially beneficial for related commodity prices [3] - A focus on sub-industries like pesticides and organic silicon is suggested due to the combination of seasonal demand and supply adjustments [3]