Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary findings of a countervailing investigation against imported dairy products from the EU, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic dairy industry in China. A temporary countervailing duty will be implemented starting December 23, 2025 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement (Document No. 83 of 2025) revealed that imported dairy products from the EU are subsidized, leading to significant harm to the domestic dairy industry. The State Council Tariff Commission will impose temporary countervailing duties starting December 23, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The countervailing investigation was initiated following a request from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association in July 2024. The investigation confirmed that the subsidization of EU dairy products has resulted in increased inventory and a shift from profit to loss for domestic producers. The subsidy rates for sampled companies ranged from 21.9% to 42.7% [4]. Market Opportunities - The reliance on EU imports for various dairy products presents opportunities for domestic alternatives. In 2024, the B-end market for cheese, cream, and butter is projected to reach approximately 27.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.6% over the past decade. Key recommended companies include Miaokelando, Yili, Mengniu, New Dairy, and Lihai Foods [4]. Raw Milk Price Outlook - There is an expectation for a turning point in raw milk prices, as domestic fresh milk prices have decreased significantly while international prices for bulk powder have shown an upward trend. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to stabilize by 2026, with recommendations for companies like Youran Dairy and Modern Dairy [4].

晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3917.36 | 0.69 | | 深证成指 | 13332.73 | 1.47 | | 创业板指 | 3191.98 | 2.23 | | 科创 50 | 1335.25 | 2.04 | | 北证 50 | 1449.28 | 0.24 | | 沪深 300 | 4611.62 | 0.95 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 管诗睿 | 研究助理 | 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【市场策略】科技方向回暖，大盘放量反弹 【基金研究】基金数据日跟踪 【债券研究】债券市场综述 二、重要财经资讯 【财经要闻】托育服务法草案提请十四届全国人大 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling that imported dairy products from the EU, including fresh cheese, processed cheese, and cream, are subject to subsidies, leading to a temporary anti-subsidy tax deposit of up to 42.7% starting from December 23 [1] - The investigation into EU dairy products was initiated after the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association submitted a request on July 29, 2024, citing adverse effects on the domestic industry due to increased inventory and a shift from profit to loss [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's Trade Relief Investigation Bureau indicated that substantial evidence shows the EU provided significant subsidies to its dairy sector through the Common Agricultural Policy, resulting in material harm to the Chinese domestic industry [1] Group 2 - The Trade Relief Investigation Bureau reiterated that China has been cautious and restrained in using trade relief measures, having not initiated any new investigations against the EU since 2025, while the EU has initiated multiple trade relief cases against China [2] - The Chinese side opposes the abuse of trade relief measures and expresses willingness to resolve trade frictions through dialogue and consultation to maintain the overall economic and trade cooperation between China and the EU [2]

Group 1: Childcare Services Legislation - The draft law on childcare services was presented for the first review at the 19th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee, aiming to protect infants under three years old and alleviate parenting anxiety for families. The draft consists of 8 chapters and 76 articles covering general principles, childcare institutions, personnel, service provision, support measures, supervision, legal responsibilities, and appendices [1]. Group 2: Audit Rectification Report - The State Council reported on the rectification of issues identified in the 2024 annual audit, revealing that 98% of the 2,186 immediate rectification issues have been resolved by September 2025. Additionally, 1.04 trillion yuan has been rectified across various localities, departments, and units, with over 1,090 institutional improvements and disciplinary actions taken against more than 3,420 individuals [1]. Group 3: Trade Measures on Dairy Products - The Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy investigations, deciding to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU starting December 23, 2025, in the form of a temporary anti-subsidy tax deposit [2]. Group 4: Economic Data - The telecommunications industry reported a total revenue of 1,609.6 billion yuan for the first 11 months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. When adjusted for last year's prices, the total telecommunications business volume increased by 9.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for key companies like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a prolonged down cycle in raw milk prices due to rigid supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fall below production costs by July 2024 [1][2]. - The core dairy product categories have seen a decline in both volume and price since 2021, leading companies to adopt discount promotions to reduce inventory, further lowering raw milk purchase prices [1][4]. - The potential for a market reversal in raw milk prices may arise from the active elimination of high-yield farms and the loss of cost-effectiveness of imported bulk powder [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2021, China's milk production increased, with fresh milk prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, while imported milk powder prices fell by 5% [1][2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by high production costs and a significant number of farms facing prolonged losses [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy product consumption is growing rapidly, with fresh milk accounting for approximately 45% of this market, although it is currently dominated by imported brands [6]. - Domestic companies are accelerating their entry into the B-end market, benefiting from policy support and cost advantages [6]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable decline in demand for high-consumption categories like ambient milk and yogurt, with significant inventory pressures prompting companies to discount products [4][10]. - The trend towards low-temperature and health-oriented products is evident, with flavored milk beverages emerging as a new growth point [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Yili has a stronger channel bargaining power compared to Mengniu, with a more efficient deep distribution model and a diversified strategy that has led to leading market shares in several segments [12]. - The report predicts stable performance for liquid milk over the next 2-3 years, while non-liquid dairy products are expected to achieve double-digit growth [13].

Summary of the Food and Beverage Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is expected to end its deep adjustment cycle by 2026, with consumer goods having largely completed inventory destocking [1][4] - The liquor sector, particularly baijiu, is projected to reach a new equilibrium by Q2 2026, with CPI stabilizing to alleviate price deflation pressures [1][4] - Companies with innovation or supply chain optimization capabilities are expected to stand out in the recovery phase [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming process, with mid-term investment value being significant [1][5] - Consumer goods are benefiting from an efficiency revolution and the transition between old and new growth drivers, with emerging channels and cost advantages continuing [1][5] - In 2025, the food and beverage sector showed mixed performance, with yellow wine, soft drinks, dairy products, and meat products leading in growth, while baijiu faced significant downward pressure from high-end price declines [1][6] Market Dynamics - The CPI and PPI differential has been volatile, with weak price increase expectations; however, a future stabilization of CPI could relieve downward price pressures [1][7] - The liquor price average has returned to a high level, indicating limited future downward space, necessitating companies to maintain a balance between volume and price [1][8] Sector-Specific Trends Liquor Industry - The baijiu sector is expected to reach a new balance by Q2 2026, with a characteristic of low-to-high price movement [1][5] - Companies are advised to focus on maintaining volume-price balance during the destocking phase [1][8] Consumer Goods - The industry is currently in a "channel is king" phase, necessitating the exploration of structural opportunities to meet changing consumer demands for health, personalization, convenience, and cost-effectiveness [1][9] - After completing inventory destocking, traditional sectors may rebound, with new emerging segments expected to thrive [1][9] Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is in a stabilization phase, with raw milk supply expected to contract in 2026, leading to a potential improvement cycle [1][11] - Key companies to watch include Yili, Mengniu, and Miaokelando, which are expected to show growth potential [1][11] Beer and Yellow Wine - The beer industry is stable but experiencing changes due to the rise of new channels, suggesting a focus on leading companies like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer [1][12] - The yellow wine sector is seeing a concentration of market share among leading companies, with structural upgrades expected to continue [1][12] Soft Drinks and Snacks - The soft drink market is facing intensified competition, with notable segments like glucose tea and sports drinks showing promise [1][13] - The snack sector is benefiting from new channel transformations, with companies like Weilong and Chacha expected to perform well [1][13] Restaurant Supply Chain and Food Chains - The restaurant supply chain is recovering from regulatory impacts, with companies like Anji Food and Gaoli Co. being highlighted for their growth potential [1][14] - Food chain companies are accelerating their expansion through optimization and innovation, presenting investment opportunities [1][14] Health Products - The health product market shows potential for significant growth, with key products like coenzyme Q10 and probiotics gaining traction [1][15] Conclusion - Each sub-sector within the food and beverage industry presents unique opportunities and challenges, necessitating tailored investment strategies to capture alpha opportunities and achieve stable returns [1][16]

Group 1 - New stock offering for Hengdongguang with an issuance price of 31.59 yuan per share and a subscription limit of 461,200 shares [2] - Domestic fuel prices will decrease due to international oil price reductions, with gasoline and diesel prices lowered by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively, translating to approximately 0.13 yuan and 0.14 yuan per liter [6] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to repurchase shares worth between 300 million to 600 million yuan [11] - Zhuoran Co. has signed a significant order worth 4.033 billion yuan through its wholly-owned subsidiary [12] - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a net profit increase of 25% to 50% year-on-year for the fiscal year 2025 [13] Group 2 - Yichang Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of trading starting from the 23rd [10] - Reader Culture is also planning a change in control, with an expected trading suspension of no more than two trading days [10] - Xusheng Group's actual controller is set to change to the Guangzhou municipal government, with trading resuming on the 23rd [14] - Lingyun Optics intends to invest up to 500,000 USD in the initial public offering of Zhipu [15] - Current demand for optical fibers and cables in the telecommunications market remains under pressure, as noted by Changfei Optical Fiber [16]

Group 1 - The Chinese government is working on the "14th Five-Year Plan" as indicated by a meeting led by Premier Li Qiang [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented temporary anti-subsidy measures on dairy products imported from the European Union [1] - The "four domestic GPU companies" are preparing for IPOs, indicating a growing interest in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 2 - Alibaba has released a new open-source image model called Qwen-Image-Layered, showcasing advancements in AI technology [1] - MiniMax's Xu Zizhao stated that large AI models are not merely a "money-burning game," suggesting that domestic models are significantly undervalued [1] - Netflix is refinancing part of a $59 billion bridge loan to support its acquisition of Warner Bros, highlighting ongoing consolidation in the media industry [1]

证券日报网讯12月22日，光明乳业（600597）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将持续增强价值 创造能力，聚焦主业，提高管理效率、提升盈利能力，实现企业价值最大化。同时，公司高度重视投资 者关系管理，通过举办业绩说明会、召开投资者交流会、接待投资者调研等方式，加强与投资者、研究 机构的沟通互动，展示公司投资价值，实现公司市值与投资价值的统一。公司近期发布《关于"提质增 效重回报"行动方案》，将持续关注投资者意见建议，结合实际优化行动方案并持续推进实施。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has announced a one-time credit repair policy, allowing individuals to have overdue information removed from the financial credit information database if they repay overdue debts of up to 10,000 RMB by March 31, 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the next two weeks, 46 routes between China and Japan will cancel all flights, with a total of 2,195 flights canceled from mainland China to Japan by December 22, 2025, resulting in a cancellation rate of 40.4% [2] Group 3 - Four new stocks in Hong Kong experienced a collective drop on their first trading day, with Mindray Hospital falling nearly 50%, marking the worst performance for new stocks this year [4] Group 4 - The U.S. Secretary of State emphasized the importance of maintaining relations with China while continuing strong partnerships with Japan, indicating a balanced approach to U.S. policy in the Asia-Pacific region [3][10] Group 5 - Zhiyuan Robotics expects to achieve sales revenue exceeding 1 billion RMB this year, with plans for significant growth in robot shipments and revenue in the coming years [4] Group 6 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of China is committed to deepening cooperation with Hong Kong to enhance its status as a financial center and support the internationalization of the RMB [6] Group 7 - The Ministry of Commerce announced temporary countervailing measures on imported dairy products from the EU, effective December 23, 2025 [10]