塑料
Search documents
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is under overall pressure due to a bearish fundamental situation, but the downward space is limited as the price is at a historically low level. The V2601 is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 4800 [3]. - This week, the production volume and capacity utilization rate of PVC are expected to fluctuate slightly on a week - on - week basis. In the medium to long term, the planned commissioning of 900,000 - ton devices by Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf in September will increase the industry's supply pressure [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand, and the Indian PVC anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented soon, causing the export market to remain in a wait - and - see mode. The considerable profit of caustic soda weakens the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4857 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10; the trading volume is 709,598 lots, a decrease of 48,778; the open interest is 1,266,528 lots, a decrease of 25,558. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 150,419 lots, an increase of 15,294 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4985 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4673.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.92. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4920 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4771.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2606.67 yuan/ton in North China, an increase of 16.67, and 2428 yuan/ton in Northwest China (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The weekly average price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 539 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged). The weekly average price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 201 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged) [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.13%, an increase of 1.11%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.73%, a decrease of 0.52%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.14%, an increase of 5.19%. The total social inventory of PVC is 533,000 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region is 478,100 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons, and the total inventory in the South China region is 54,900 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, an increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.48%, an increase of 0.2; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, a decrease of 0.05. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 15.15%, a decrease of 0.48 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 10, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4730 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 30 to September 5, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% [3]. - As of September 4, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons. The V2601 fluctuated slightly and closed at 4857 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the restart of previously shut - down devices drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in PVC production last week to 660,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.11% week - on - week to 77.13%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.9% week - on - week to 43.5%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.13 to 33.48% week - on - week, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 4.21% week - on - week to 38.39%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons [3].
瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 7200 and the pressure around 7300. The total inventory pressure is not large and is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The supply pressure in the industry is difficult to improve. The cost side provides certain support to international oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7237 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7176 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The trading volume is 178,117 lots, an increase of 12,282 lots, and the open interest is 517,187 lots, a decrease of 790 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is - 50, up 29. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 345,595 lots, a decrease of 4219 lots; the short positions are 389,807 lots, an increase of 643 lots; the net long positions are - 44,212 lots, a decrease of 4862 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7256.52 yuan/ton, down 6.09 yuan; in East China is 7335.95 yuan/ton, up 4.76 yuan. The basis is 27.52, up 15.91 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.23 US dollars/barrel, up 0.31 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.25 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 80.55%, up 1.86 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 50.48%, up 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 30.33%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 20.18%, up 2.72 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 6.62%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.41%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.22%, down 0.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.23%, down 0.35 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 29th to September 4th, China's polyethylene production was 632,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.37%. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 80.55%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.8% compared with the previous period. As of September 10th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 487,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.03%; as of September 5th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 560,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [2]
塑料板块9月10日跌0.3%,奇德新材领跌,主力资金净流出8.76亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-09-10 08:30
Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.3% on September 10, with Qide New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Top Performers in the Plastic Sector - Dongcai Technology (601208) saw a closing price of 18.04, with a significant increase of 7.89% and a trading volume of 729,000 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.291 billion [1] - Wankai New Materials (301216) closed at 21.14, up 6.88%, with a trading volume of 371,800 shares and a transaction value of 762 million [1] - Jiangsu Boyun (301003) closed at 36.82, up 5.38%, with a trading volume of 31,800 shares and a transaction value of 115 million [1] Underperformers in the Plastic Sector - Qide New Materials (36600E) closed at 53.71, down 8.81%, with a trading volume of 67,100 shares and a transaction value of 370 million [2] - Dadongnan (002263) closed at 4.14, down 5.48%, with a trading volume of 2,613,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.093 billion [2] - Jinfatech (600143) closed at 17.53, down 4.26%, with a trading volume of 2,258,200 shares and a transaction value of 400.5 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 876 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 754 million [2] - Major stocks like Dongcai Technology had a net inflow of 1.07 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 36.06 million [3] - Wankai New Materials had a net inflow of 1.09 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 3.04 million from retail investors [3]
供强需弱,社会库存累积至高位
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 13:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].
聚烯烃月报:宏观情绪回暖,基本面出现分化-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 12:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Capital market sentiment is relatively hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the divergence in the supply side of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene faces greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, it is expected that the LL - PP price difference will continue to strengthen in an oscillating manner [17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Capital market sentiment is hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and upstream and midstream high - level inventory starts to decrease [17]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.83% this month, Brent crude oil dropped by - 0.06%, coal price dropped by - 1.72%, methanol dropped by - 6.02%, ethylene dropped by - 6.92%, propylene rose by 7.37%, and propane rose by 12.52%. Oil prices are oscillating at a low level, and the impact on the cost side is small. This month's trading logic in the futures market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [17]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%, and a decrease of - 11.00% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 80.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%, a year - on - year increase of 5.78%, and a decrease of - 5.99% compared with the five - year average. There is a divergence in the supply side of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene has greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons [17]. - **Import and Export**: In July, domestic PE imports were 1.107 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.40% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.78%. PP imports were 177,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.73%. On the export side, it declined in the off - season. In July, PE exports were 101,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03% and a year - on - year increase of 76.67%. PP exports were 236,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 65.78% [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.86%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 49.90%, a month - on - month increase of 2.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 0.12%. The seasonal peak season is approaching, but the overall operating rate is lower than that of previous years, with PP performing better than PE [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 450,800 tons, with a destocking of - 12.53% this month and a stockpiling of 2.11% compared with the same period last year. PE trader inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.36% compared with last month and a destocking of - 2.07% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory is 581,900 tons, with a destocking of - 0.89% this month and a stockpiling of 10.17% compared with the same period last year. PP trader inventory is 193,000 tons, with a stockpiling of 3.04% compared with last month and a stockpiling of 50.43% compared with the same period last year. PP port inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.26% compared with last month and a destocking of - 13.59% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (7,200 - 7,500); the reference oscillation range for polypropylene (PP2601) is (6,900 - 7,200) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Due to the mismatch in the production plans of the 2601 contract, go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [65]. 3.3 Cost Side - Crude oil prices are oscillating downward. The prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane have different trends. The profit from ethylene - based PE production has declined significantly. The import freight of LPG oscillates upward seasonally [85][93][119]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions. In 2025, multiple PE production projects have been put into operation, with a total of 4.63 million tons of production capacity put into operation and 400,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate of PE shows certain fluctuations, and there are also corresponding maintenance plans [142][148][154]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export No detailed analysis content is provided in the text, only the figures of total inventory and production enterprise inventory are mentioned [158].
从“中介”到“生态构建者”!聚塑云解锁万亿塑料行业领先密码
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-09-05 12:17
Core Insights - The event "Shandong (Rizhao) Good Brands on the Industrial Chain" was held to showcase the development of emerging industries in Rizhao City, focusing on brand building and innovation practices [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Rizhao City is promoting the growth of new emerging industries by optimizing the innovation ecosystem and developing new production capabilities [1] - The event featured representatives from various sectors including medical devices, digital technology, and industrial internet [1] Group 2: Company Spotlight - 聚塑云 - 聚塑云, established in 2018, is a leading digital service platform in the plastic industry, serving over 25,000 clients nationwide with a projected transaction scale of 8.5 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The company operates a comprehensive business ecosystem covering one-stop procurement, industry SaaS, digital supply chain finance, new material research and development, and smart industrial parks [3] - 聚塑云 has been recognized as one of the "Top 100 Industrial Internet Enterprises in China" and has received the "China Supply Chain Finance Application and Innovation Award" [3] Group 3: Strategic Approach - The core advantage of 聚塑云 lies in its "platform + factory + park" multi-dimensional integration model, which connects upstream and downstream enterprises to create a digital ecosystem in the plastic industry [3] - The company emphasizes that the ultimate value of industrial internet is not just optimizing circulation but also driving innovation and transformation in the production sector through data penetration [4] - 聚塑云's approach involves a three-step process: data accumulation, R&D transformation, and physical implementation, aiming to "reconstruct" rather than "disrupt" traditional industries with digital technology [4]
塑料板块9月5日涨4.56%,横河精密领涨,主力资金净流入10.81亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-09-05 08:49
Market Performance - The plastic sector increased by 4.56% on September 5, with Yokogawa Precision leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Key Stocks in Plastic Sector - Yokogawa Precision (300539) closed at 32.82, up 20.00% with a trading volume of 321,400 shares and a turnover of 983 million yuan [1] - Dazhongnan (002263) closed at 4.41, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 4,980,500 shares and a turnover of 2.102 billion yuan [1] - Wankai New Materials (301216) closed at 18.91, up 8.06% with a trading volume of 347,400 shares and a turnover of 641 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Shangwei New Materials (688585) at 76.50 (+7.53%), Pulite (002324) at 14.17 (+7.51%), and Jinfatech (600143) at 17.70 (+7.27%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 1.081 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 643 million yuan [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows into Jinfatech (600143) with 466.12 million yuan, while Yokogawa Precision (300539) had a net inflow of 263 million yuan [3] - Dazhongnan (002263) attracted 251 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]
美欧韩日泰想不到!中国前脚刚办完国际盛会,后脚重磅关税清单就已杀到
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 06:04
Group 1: International Relations - The current international landscape is undergoing profound changes, with major power competition becoming increasingly complex, moving beyond mere economic strength or diplomatic clout to more refined strategic layouts [1] - Beijing is increasingly becoming the center of global diplomacy, highlighted by a significant international event commemorating the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War, attended by leaders from over twenty countries, including North Korea and Russia [3] - The participation of Southeast Asian leaders at the event counters claims of China's isolation, showcasing its core influence in regional affairs [3] Group 2: Economic Policies - China's Ministry of Commerce has announced anti-dumping measures on imported phenol products, which are crucial raw materials for various key industries, indicating a significant impact on national economic security [4] - The anti-dumping measures target major economies, including the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea, with some tariffs exceeding 100% and a duration of five years, reflecting a response to years of investigation revealing the adverse effects of low-priced imports on domestic industries [4] - Despite implementing protective measures, China remains open to dialogue and negotiation, demonstrating a policy approach that is both firm and flexible in the context of rising global trade protectionism [4] Group 3: Strategic Approach - China's recent combination of diplomatic and economic strategies showcases advanced strategic art, achieving a synergistic effect between soft and hard power [5] - The timing of major diplomatic events and key economic policies has provided moral support for economic measures while enhancing diplomatic credibility, indicating a departure from traditional zero-sum thinking [5] - Looking ahead, China aims to continue employing innovative strategic thinking to navigate complex international situations, contributing to a more just and reasonable global order [5]
LLDPE:中期震荡行情
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 01:49
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to experience a mid - term oscillating trend. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry; however, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. Although there is a slight increase in domestic supply and a small inventory build - up recently, the overall inventory pressure is not high, so the PE market may continue to oscillate within a range [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 7225, with a daily decline of - 0.51%. The trading volume was 235,618, and the open interest increased by 12,101 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 01 contract was - 115 (compared to - 97 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 5 (compared to 7 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the spot price was 7110 yuan/ton (down from 7150 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7170 yuan/ton (down from 7220 yuan/ton); and in the South China region, it was 7350 yuan/ton (down from 7380 yuan/ton) [1]. Spot News - The domestic PE market prices oscillated within a range this week. Crude oil prices first rose and then fell, providing limited cost support. Some plants such as Shanghai Petrochemical, Tarim Petrochemical, and Ningxia Baofeng Phase III were under maintenance, but new production capacities from Jilin Petrochemical Phase II and Yulong Petrochemical continued to be released, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. The operating rate of the downstream agricultural film industry continued to rise, but new orders for some factories were lower than expected. The "Golden September" peak - demand season showed mediocre performance. Market sentiment was cautious, with holders offering small discounts to sell, and terminal inquiries were low, resulting in limited trading volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is improving, mainly due to the approaching peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports PE prices. However, recent weakening commodity sentiment has led to a decline in futures prices. In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August, and the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in the East China region. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a small inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not high [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].
塑料板块9月4日跌2.03%,上纬新材领跌,主力资金净流出4.05亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-09-04 08:50
Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 2.03% on September 4, with Shangwei New Materials leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed varied performance, with Hangzhou Gaoxin rising by 19.99% and Shangwei New Materials falling by 13.94% [1][2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the plastic sector was 405 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 477 million yuan [2][3] - Major stocks like Jinfat Technology and Hangzhou Gaoxin had significant net inflows from main funds, while others like Dazhongnan and Fusheng Technology experienced net outflows [3]