金立印 复旦管院院长助理、市场营销学系系主任 研究方向：消费行为与营销战略 01 增收入！居民增收计划提升消费能力 "十五五"是中国迈向2035年基本实现社会主义现代化目标的关键五年。作为开局之年的2026，世界依然变乱交织。面对全球经济增长疲软与内需不足等多 重挑战，中国经济如何破局？高质量发展如何取得显著成效？科技自立自强如何实现制度保障？如何扩大内需，建设强大国内市场？ "视界·新年特辑"系列策划，将立足"十五五"规划战略框架，结合学术前沿洞察与产业一线动态，力图从宏观经济、资本市场、消费趋势、产业变迁、组 织进化等维度呈现教授们对2026和未来趋势的展望。变革时代，需要冷静的洞察与笃定的行动。复旦管院始终致力于连接学术智慧与商业实践。我们期待 通过系列文章，与您共同探寻中国经济的韧性、活力与未来路径。 本期，复旦管院院长助理、市场营销学系系主任金立印教授将为我们分析中国消费市场趋势与机遇，探讨当依赖规模扩张、渠道渗透和人口增长的传统逻 辑失效时，如何有效拉动内需，促进消费市场繁荣发展。 消费是促进中国经济增长的重要引擎。2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上，为"十五五"开局之年的2026年经济工作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Finance Department has issued a notice to optimize the implementation of loan interest subsidies for service industry operators, extending the policy period, increasing subsidy limits, and expanding support areas to boost consumption and domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators is extended until December 31, 2026 [1]. - Loans issued between March 16, 2025, and December 31, 2025, will continue to follow previous national and provincial guidelines, while new loans in 2026 will receive enhanced support [1]. Group 2: Subsidy Details - The maximum loan amount eligible for interest subsidies for individual operators in 2026 is raised to 10 million yuan, with a subsidy period not exceeding one year and an annual interest subsidy rate of 1% [1]. - The funding for the subsidies will be covered 90% by the central government and 10% by the provincial government, effectively reducing financing costs for enterprises [1]. Group 3: Expanded Support Areas - The support areas have been expanded to include three new emerging consumption sectors: digital, green, and retail, in addition to the existing eight service sectors [2]. - The digital sector includes "Internet and related services" and "digital content services"; the green sector covers industries meeting standards for green buildings, transportation, and logistics; the retail sector encompasses all retail industries as classified in the National Economic Industry Classification [2]. Group 4: Implementation and Supervision - The notice emphasizes the need for strong organizational implementation and supervision, with penalties for serious violations, including the recovery of subsidy funds and accountability for banks colluding with enterprises [2]. - Banks are required to strictly perform their loan approval duties, monitor fund flows, and prevent loans from being used for non-operational purposes, with measures in place to avoid duplicate subsidy claims [2]. - The policy encourages flexible borrowing and repayment models to enhance fund utilization efficiency, while also establishing risk constraints by denying subsidies for overdue or non-performing service industry loans [2].

Core Insights - The 2026 Guangdong Provincial Government Work Report emphasizes "investment in people" as a new trend, shifting focus from traditional infrastructure and industrial investment to areas directly impacting citizens' lives such as education, employment, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [1] Group 1: Investment in People - "Investment in people" aims to allocate more resources to essential sectors, focusing on reducing rigid living costs and enhancing individuals' ability to create wealth and withstand risks [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Guangdong's expenditure on people's livelihoods reached 6.45 trillion yuan, accounting for over 70% of general public budget expenditures [1] - Over the past five years, the province has created more than 7 million new urban jobs and provided stable employment for 43.86 million migrant workers, alongside the construction of 1.554 million units of affordable housing [1] Group 2: Specific Initiatives - Childcare support will be expanded with subsidies for over 3 million infants and the establishment of new childcare facilities [2] - Employment initiatives include plans to absorb over 1 million college graduates for employment and entrepreneurship in Guangdong, along with subsidized vocational training for over 300,000 individuals [3] - Healthcare improvements will focus on continuous health management services for key populations and enhanced interoperability of medical examination results [4] - Education expansion includes the addition of over 200,000 regular high school places and improved support for county-level high school education [4] - Long-term care insurance systems will be accelerated to provide basic living and medical care for severely disabled individuals, with increased subsidies for vulnerable groups [5] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The ongoing investment in people's livelihoods reflects Guangdong's foresight in addressing economic transformation pressures, aiming to boost confidence and consumption while stabilizing the economy [5] - The shift towards "investment in people" signifies a deeper change in development logic, focusing on human happiness and long-term competitiveness rather than merely short-term expenditures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the comprehensive development of a three-tiered elderly care service network in Jinchuan District, emphasizing the integration of medical and nursing services, community support, and smart technology to enhance the quality of life for the elderly [1][7]. Group 1: Medical and Nursing Integration - The Baoye Medical and Nursing Apartment is the first "medical care" elderly institution in the province, housing 180 residents with an average age of 86, and 80% of the 60 staff members are professional nurses providing 24-hour care [2][3]. - Residents experience a high level of comfort and care, with services available on-site for various health issues, allowing them to engage in daily activities like playing cards and exercising [2]. Group 2: Community Embedded Services - The community service center in Jinchuan District offers a range of elderly-friendly facilities and a 24-hour monitoring system, ensuring regular check-ins and emergency training for staff [3]. - The introduction of 30 "elderly care consultants" in the community provides a one-stop service for consultation, assessment, and feedback, facilitating seamless transitions in care as health conditions change [3]. Group 3: Smart Elderly Care - The Jinchuan District has implemented a smart elderly care service platform that integrates various service points, allowing for real-time monitoring and management of elderly care services [4][5]. - The platform supports multiple payment methods and provides dietary recommendations based on health status, enhancing the convenience and personalization of services [4]. Group 4: Rural Support Initiatives - The mutual happiness homes in rural areas provide meal delivery services, ensuring that elderly residents receive nutritious meals at low costs, supported by a collaborative funding model involving government and community contributions [6]. - Each mutual happiness home receives an annual subsidy of 30,000 yuan for operational costs, and local associations engage in service management to better meet the needs of elderly residents [6]. Group 5: Overall Coverage and Future Goals - Jinchuan District has established 8 comprehensive elderly service centers, 25 community day care centers, and 27 rural mutual happiness homes, achieving 100% coverage of elderly care facilities [7]. - The district aims to ensure that both urban and rural elderly populations can enjoy a fulfilling and secure retirement through a multi-faceted approach that combines medical care, smart technology, and community support [7].

1月30日，省政府新闻办举行主题为"幸福广东"的"'十四五'广东成就"系列主题新闻发布会。发布会上， 一组"民生账单""幸福密码"令人瞩目—— "十四五"时期全省地方民生类支出总量达6.45万亿元，占一般公共预算支出比重七成以上；底线民生保 障水平持续位居全国前列。全省城镇新增就业累计704.7万人，就业形势总体稳定。 此外，全省15分钟医疗圈基本建成，人均预期寿命从77.8岁提升至80.6岁。全省建设筹集各类保障性住 房155.39万套；打造建设83个体育公园，全省社区体育公园超3000个、健身步道达3.56万公里。 投入超3800亿元实施省十件民生实事 不久前的省两会上，2026年广东省十件民生实事出炉。省财政厅党组书记、厅长陈国煌介绍，广东已连 续15年办好省"十件民生实事"，"十四五"期间全省投入实施省十件民生实事的财政资金超3800亿元。 就业是最大的民生。陈国煌介绍，"十四五"期间，全省统筹投入各类资金超480亿元，助力稳岗扩容提 质，将7000多万人就业稳在广东。全省发放各类就业创业补贴补助超240亿元，帮助高校毕业生、农民 工、困难群体等就业。全省落实失业保险稳岗返还政策资金约111亿元，惠及 ...

Economic Growth and Investment - The region's GDP has crossed three hundred billion levels, with general public budget revenue reaching 20.4 billion and fixed asset investment exceeding 100 billion [1] - The total import and export volume has grown at an annual rate of 10.4%, with 255 projects attracting over 100 million in investment [1] Industrial Development - The Jinan New Materials Industrial Park has expanded from 4.7 square kilometers to 14.85 square kilometers, with industrial output value from large-scale enterprises increasing by 45% [1] - The number of high-tech enterprises has doubled, accounting for 82% of the total output value, and 94 new scientific innovation platforms have been established [1] Infrastructure and Urban Development - A total of 622 million square meters have been demolished, and 588 million square meters of old residential areas have been renovated, significantly improving the image of key areas [1] - Major infrastructure projects such as the PM2.5 concentration reduction of 34.8% and the continuous 100% excellent water quality ratio at national control sections have been achieved [1] Social Welfare and Public Services - Public spending on people's livelihood remains above 75%, successfully completing 83 livelihood projects [2] - 30 new or expanded schools have been built, adding over 26,000 new student places, along with 145 new elderly care facilities [2]

强化财政金融支持，是服务消费扩容增长的"助推器"。服务消费领域的中小微经营主体居多，新业态的 培育、消费基础设施的完善，都需要金融活水的精准滴灌和财政资金的有效引导。《方案》打出的财政 金融"组合拳"，兼顾"输血"与"造血"，精准发力服务消费新增长点。例如，统筹利用现有资金渠道支持 服务消费发展，优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，为市场主体降低融资成本；引导金融机构加大 信贷投放、创新特色金融产品，破解服务消费领域融资难、融资贵问题；支持符合条件的企业发行债 券、消费基础设施项目发行REITs，盘活存量资产，拓宽市场化融资渠道；加大消费信贷支持力度，推 动金融机构与商家合作开发适配服务消费特点的产品，从需求端撬动消费潜力。 一分部署，九分落实。服务消费的发展具有鲜明的个性化特征，不同地区的消费需求、产业基础、资源 禀赋差异显著，这就要求各地区、各有关部门跳出"一刀切"的政策思维，结合实际创新支持举措，细化 落实方案。既要聚焦本地特色培育服务消费新场景、新赛道，如文旅资源丰富的地区发力"旅游+"融合 消费，老龄化程度较高的地区完善养老家政服务供给，产业集聚的地区培育体育、教育等特色消费业 态，也要加强部门协同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extension of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services, including elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping services, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [3]. Tax Reductions - Income from community elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping services will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) [5]. - When calculating taxable income, only 90% of the income from these services will be included in the total income [5]. - Properties and land used for providing these community services will be exempt from deed tax [5]. - Properties and land owned or obtained through lease or free use for these services will be exempt from property tax and urban land use tax [5]. Fee Exemptions - Properties and land used for community elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping services will be exempt from various fees, including real estate registration fees, land reclamation fees, and land idle fees [6]. - Construction projects for these community services will be exempt from urban infrastructure support fees [6]. - If geological conditions prevent the construction of a civil air defense underground facility, the fee for alternative construction will be waived [6]. Definition of Community Services - Community refers to a social living community composed of people living in a specific geographic area, including urban and rural communities [6]. - Institutions providing community elderly care services are defined as those offering services such as daily care, rehabilitation, and emergency assistance to elderly residents [6]. - Institutions providing community childcare services are defined as those offering care and education for children under three years old [6]. - Institutions providing community housekeeping services are defined as those offering cleaning, cooking, and care services for families [6]. Compliance Requirements - Service providers must retain documentation such as registration receipts and service agreements to prove compliance with the preferential policies [7]. - Failure to provide adequate documentation or if the documentation is found to be false may result in the recovery of enjoyed tax benefits [7].

（上接1版） 《方案》的印发旨在优化和扩大服务供给，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。 对企业而言，投资与创新方向更清晰，为企业开展经营活动提供了有力加持；对消费者而言，意味着可 选择的服务更多、质量更稳定、体验更丰富，尤其是在家政、旅居、文化娱乐等领域，将更好满足其个 性化、多样化和情绪价值需求。 展望未来，洪勇表示，服务消费仍将是我国扩大内需和促进高质量发展的重要引擎，其增长动力将更多 来自人口结构变化、生活方式升级和技术赋能。随着标准、监管和信用体系不断完善，服务供给质量提 升，服务消费将在稳增长、稳就业和改善民生中发挥更加基础性、长期性的作用。崔丽丽认为，服务消 费结构将持续升级、继续深化，同时技术发展与服务深度融合，促进产业迭代创新升级，中国服务品牌 也将有机会脱颖而出。 洪勇认为，目前部分服务消费领域标准体系、信用体系和监管规则尚不健全，影响消费者信心。并且服 务消费对时间、收入和场景依赖度高，居民预期和消费环境改善仍需持续推进。 同时也要看到，制约因素依然存在。在崔丽丽看来，目前限制服务消费发展的最核心矛盾是优质供给不 足与结构失衡：一方面，高品质、精细化、个性化的服务供给短缺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the development of integrated medical and educational services, as well as medical and elderly care services, in response to China's demographic challenges, including declining birth rates and an aging population [1] Group 1: Policy Recommendations - The proposal suggests enhancing inter-departmental collaboration and expanding effective supply through various channels, including public-private partnerships, to meet the basic service needs of residents [2] - It advocates for the establishment of a collaborative service network involving various healthcare institutions to ensure resource sharing and efficient coordination [2] Group 2: Operational Management - The article recommends creating a clear operational management mechanism tailored to local needs, defining responsibilities among participating units, and ensuring safe and effective service delivery [3] - It highlights the importance of integrating medical and educational services with the construction of medical alliances to facilitate communication and service delivery between different healthcare providers [3] Group 3: Safety and Regulation - The article stresses the need to establish a robust safety framework through multi-departmental coordination, regulatory clarity, and quality assessment systems to ensure the safety and quality of integrated services [3]