Economic Overview - Jinan's economy shows a stable and improving trend in the first four months of the year, supported by precise policies and macroeconomic coordination [1] Industrial Production - The city's industrial output increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing sector at 103.0%, and automotive manufacturing at 39.5% [1] - Equipment manufacturing grew by 27.2%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 18.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech manufacturing also performed well, with a 26.1% increase in output, contributing 4.9 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.4% year-on-year, with the primary industry seeing a substantial increase of 210.6% and the secondary industry growing by 14.7% [2] - Industrial investment grew by 13.8%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to the overall investment growth [2] - High-tech industry investment increased by 13.8%, while real estate development investment declined by 2.0% [2] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's revenue reached 1111.8 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, with nine out of ten major industries reporting revenue growth [3] - The transportation, storage, and postal services sector generated 469.5 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of the service sector's total revenue, and grew by 6.4% [3] - The rental and business services sector also performed well, with a revenue increase of 14.2% [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in Jinan reached 654.2 billion yuan, a 3.0% increase year-on-year, with urban retail sales growing by 3.2% [4] - The sales of communication equipment surged by 71.2% due to the "trade-in" policy, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.9% [4] - Online retail sales grew significantly by 32.7%, reaching 172.4 billion yuan [4] Fiscal and Financial Overview - Public budget revenue was 452.5 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase, while tax revenue decreased by 1.3% [4] - Financial institutions reported a 4.9% increase in deposits and a 10.6% increase in loans by the end of April [4] Foreign Trade - Jinan's total import and export value reached 793.4 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase, with exports growing by 10.4% and imports by 49.6% [5] - General trade accounted for 92.3% of the total trade volume, growing by 23.3% [5] Price Trends - Consumer prices rose by 0.5% cumulatively, with a 0.6% increase in April, showing a mixed trend across eight categories of goods and services [5]

Economic Overview - Zhuhai's economy showed overall stability from January to April, with industrial, consumption, import-export, and fiscal indicators experiencing steady growth, while investment indicators saw a significant decline [1] Industrial Production - From January to April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in Zhuhai increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with the "4+3" pillar industries growing by 6.9% [1] - Specific sectors such as new energy (8.2%), integrated circuits (2.1%), new generation information technology (12.7%), smart home appliances (1.1%), fine chemicals (9.0%), and high-end equipment manufacturing (42.2%) reported varied growth rates [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Zhuhai saw a significant year-on-year decline of 41.2% from January to April, with industrial technological transformation investment down by 1.2%, real estate development investment down by 39.2%, and infrastructure investment down by 42.8% [1] Consumption Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Zhuhai reached 31.26 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - Within consumption types, catering revenue for above-designated size enterprises decreased by 0.3%, while retail sales of goods increased by 12.0% [1] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade import-export total reached 111.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Exports totaled 75.77 billion yuan, growing by 12.3%, while imports amounted to 35.94 billion yuan, increasing by 25.4% [1] Service Industry - From January to March, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises in Zhuhai reached 40.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [2] - Key growth sectors included information transmission, software, and IT services (22.1%), leasing and business services (11.2%), and water, environment, and public facilities management (13.0%) [2] Fiscal and Financial Performance - From January to April, Zhuhai's general public budget revenue was 16.68 billion yuan, up by 3.9% year-on-year, while public budget expenditure was 20.47 billion yuan, increasing by 1.0% [2] - By the end of April, the balance of deposits and loans in Zhuhai's financial institutions grew by 5.9% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively [2]

Group 1 - The average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees in 2024 is 124,110 yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 2.8% and a comparable growth of 2.6% [4] - The average annual salary for urban private sector employees is 69,476 yuan, with a nominal growth of 1.7% and a comparable growth of 4.0% [4] - The average annual salary for employees in large-scale enterprises is 102,452 yuan, showing a nominal growth of 4.4% and a comparable growth of 4.2% [4] Group 2 - The highest average salary levels in urban non-private and private sectors are found in the information transmission, software and information technology services, financial services, and scientific research and technical services industries [5] - The lowest average salary levels are concentrated in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, accommodation and catering, water conservancy, environmental and public facilities management, and other service industries [5] Group 3 - The data indicates a trend of narrowing wage disparities across different industries, regions, and job positions [6][10] - The stability in wage levels across industries suggests a correlation with the overall stabilization of the macroeconomic environment [8] - The information transmission and software services industry has maintained the highest average salary for several years, attributed to the growth of the digital economy [8][10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Consumption - The central bank's report emphasizes that boosting consumption is a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with signs of gradual recovery in consumption growth [2][3] - The central bank plans to increase low-cost funding support for key consumption sectors and develop guiding documents for financial support to enhance consumer finance services [2][3] - The report indicates that China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower compared to countries like the US and Japan, suggesting significant potential for increasing consumption's contribution to economic growth [2] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The report highlights that China's broad government total assets are equivalent to 166% of GDP, while total liabilities are 75% of GDP, indicating a net asset position of 91% of GDP [5][6] - The sustainability of government debt is supported by substantial state-owned assets and a relatively low level of government liabilities, allowing for continued debt expansion [6][7] - Increased fiscal support has been noted, with local governments issuing nearly 1 trillion yuan in new special bonds in the first quarter, effectively boosting investment and market confidence [8] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The central bank discusses the need to promote reasonable price recovery by balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [9] - Current low price levels are influenced by multiple factors, including persistent downward pressure on consumption and significant investment contraction in traditional sectors [9][10] - Experts suggest that price management should shift from preventing "price gouging" to preventing "low-price dumping," emphasizing the importance of quality over quantity in competition [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development [1] Group 1: Employment Initiatives - The target for urban new employment in 2025 is set at over 12 million, with enhanced public employment services and support for key groups [1] - A series of recruitment events have been launched, with over 1,000 events and 697,000 job postings from more than 350,000 employers, attracting nearly 7.42 million job-seeking graduates [2][4] - Various specialized service zones have been established at job fairs to provide policy consultation and career guidance [4] Group 2: Policy Support and Financial Aid - The government has implemented incentive policies to expand job opportunities in key sectors, including new productivity development and basic livelihood services [6] - Employment support policies have been enhanced, with a cumulative issuance of over 640 billion yuan in loans to stabilize and expand employment positions [13] - In the first quarter, 35.2 billion yuan in stabilization funds were distributed to 588,000 enterprises, reducing costs by 45.6 billion yuan through lowered unemployment insurance rates [15] Group 3: Skills Training and Development - The "Skills Illuminate the Future" training initiative aims to address structural employment issues by increasing the supply of skilled labor in high-demand sectors [20] - Over 1 million people are expected to receive subsidies for vocational skills training, focusing on advanced manufacturing and modern services [26] - Specialized training programs for sectors like elderly care and domestic services have been initiated to support workforce stability [30]

编者按 人工智能领域将创造1100万个岗位 同时随着技术进步，也将取代900万个岗位 未来增长最快的5个职业 大数据专家 金融科技工程师 人工智能和机器学习专家 软件和应用程序开发人员 安全管理专家 预计到2030年 39%的工人核心技能将发生变化 就业是最大的民生。4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出，要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化 的不确定性。当下，就业情况如何？哪些领域正成为吸纳劳动力的"蓄水池"？稳就业政策如何精准发力？本期《智库·数据》将通过多组数据为您揭示。 观 数 数据来源:世界经济论坛《2025年未来就业报告》 季度就业形势总览 手工 季度 全国城镇新增就业308万人 同比多增5万人 全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.3% 3月份 全国城镇调查失业率为5.2% 比2月份下降0.2个百分点 本地户籍劳动力调查失业率为5.3% 100 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 -- -- -- -- - 外来农业户籍劳动力调查失业率为5.0% 31个大城市城镇调查失业率为5.2% 全国企业 就业人员周平均工作时间为48.5小时 李度末 外出务工农村劳动力总量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and expanding job opportunities in key sectors, reflecting the labor market's potential for growth [1] Employment Expansion Efforts - The government plans to enhance job release efforts by focusing on new productivity, major engineering projects, and basic livelihood services [1] - There is a commitment to actively explore new employment growth points in various industries [1] Industry-Specific Insights - Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, there was a year-on-year increase in recruitment demand in sectors such as life services, transportation logistics, and resident services [1] - The demand for positions related to artificial intelligence, such as robot algorithm engineers, has seen a year-on-year growth of over 30% [1]

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...