宁德锂矿复工的情况如何？市场对此有何误解？ 大摩周期：市场对宁德锂矿复工有误解，原材料反内卷 5 天调研，保险油运工 业的投资机会 20250910 摘要 铜冶炼行业受政策影响，国产费用增加，进口受限，每月供应减少约 5 万吨至 5.5 万吨，加工费已降至负值，但行业不会因此反内卷。 氧化铝行业整体过剩，电解铝因产能刚性和海外供应限制，供应增速低 于需求，维持高盈利状态。 钢铁行业部分省份已减产，唐山尚未强制。若唐山钢厂盈利转负，可能 自发减产。年底唐山或有减产。 水泥需求下滑，龙头企业讨论减产基金，加速淘汰小型企业产能。 邮轮运输市场需求二元分化，运价近期上涨至 6 万左右，超出预期。四 季度旺季需求、运力减少、制裁及增产等因素支撑运价。 安能物流在加盟制快运市场领先，受益于柔性供应链和大件电商渗透率 提升，迷你小票货量增长显著，估值具吸引力，四季度旺季或成股价催 化剂。 工程机械行业接近底部，2025 年进入上升周期，挖掘机率先复苏，国 内替换周期、基建项目和海外市场增长是驱动因素，首选三一重工。 Q&A 市场对宁德锂矿复工存在一定误解。宜春的七个矿山将在 9 月 30 日提交储量 核查报告，最终决定是否 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - **Industries Discussed**: Lithium mining, copper, aluminum, steel, cement, coal, shipping (cruise industry), express delivery, logistics, insurance, industrial equipment. Key Points and Arguments Lithium Mining - Market misunderstanding regarding the resumption of operations at Ningde lithium mines, with a target for resumption set for November [4][3] - Seven mines in Yichun are awaiting a government decision on their operational status, with results expected by October or November [3][4] Copper - Copper smelting processing fees are currently negative, but no significant changes in smelting operations are anticipated [6][6] - New regulations on waste copper suppliers may increase domestic costs and affect supply, with an estimated monthly supply impact of 50,000 to 55,000 tons [7][7] Aluminum - The impact of anti-involution on alumina is minimal, with the industry remaining in a state of oversupply [8][8] Steel - Regional differences in steel production cuts, with some provinces actively implementing reductions while others, like Tangshan, have not yet enforced cuts [9][9] - Profitability in the steel sector has dropped significantly, leading to potential voluntary production cuts [9][9] Cement - Cement demand is declining, particularly in cities like Shanghai, prompting discussions among leading companies about potential production cuts [10][10] Coal - Coal prices are expected to stabilize between 600 and 700, with production checks likely if prices fall below 600 [11][11] Shipping (Cruise Industry) - The cruise industry has faced demand dilution due to illegal oil transport, impacting market performance [14][14] - Recent increases in shipping rates, from around 30,000 to 60,000, indicate a potential recovery in the sector [15][16] - Supply-side changes are expected to drive future price increases, with a focus on compliance and sanctions affecting operational efficiency [20][20] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a gradual price increase, with major players locking in market shares to stabilize pricing [26][26] - Concerns about social security changes impacting delivery costs were noted, but no drastic regulatory changes are expected [29][29] Logistics (Aneng Logistics) - Aneng is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery market, benefiting from structural changes and a growing market share [30][30] - The company is expected to see continued growth due to favorable market dynamics and competitive advantages [31][31] Insurance - The insurance sector has reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on cost control and structural improvements [39][39] - The growth in the insurance market is driven by fewer catastrophic events and improved expense management [39][39] Industrial Equipment - The industrial sector is entering a new upcycle, particularly in engineering machinery and lithium battery equipment, with expected growth rates of 46%, 24%, and 21% over the next three years [52][57] - Key drivers include equipment replacement cycles, infrastructure projects, and overseas market growth [54][55] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in various sectors indicates a cautious optimism, with potential for recovery in specific industries despite ongoing challenges [12][12] - The discussion highlighted the importance of regulatory changes and market dynamics in shaping future performance across sectors [12][12][12]

中青报·中青网记者 尹希宁 见习记者 马子倩 9月10日，2025年中国国际服务贸易交易会（以下简称"服贸会"）启幕。与往届相比，本届服贸会开幕 当天就亮点鲜明，多国与会嘉宾乘"数"而来。 商务部副部长盛秋平在不久前召开的新闻发布会上介绍，今年上半年，我国服务进出口总额达到3.9万 亿元，同比增长8%，规模创历史同期新高。 扎实的数据背后，是日益凸显的服务贸易"中国活力"。记者在北京市石景山区首钢园内看到，多款参展 项目紧扣本届服贸会的主题"数智领航"：供应链及商务服务专题展内，申通快递AI视觉系统亮相，依托 12万路摄像头，该系统每小时可识别800件包裹异常，分拣准确率达99.97%；文旅服务专题展区内，歌 剧《费加罗的婚礼》借助全球首个8K级超高清第二现场分发平台，实现剧场演出跨越山海的同步共 赏；在多个专题展区内，人形机器人和机器狗持续吸睛，在真实场景内展示其技术能力…… 9 月10日，2025年中国国际服务贸易交易会开幕，专题展内观众人头攒动。中青报·中青网记者 尹希宁/摄 摩根资产管理全球主席白博文在开幕式致辞时感慨，在过去的30年里，他访问中国150多次，每一次访 问都对中国发展的活力印象深刻。在 ...

全国主要产粮区基本都涨价了，涨价幅度高低不一，从0.1元到1元不等。 过去十年，电商与快递共生发展，催生了三五元包邮的时代。无论涨多少，对于三块九、四块九包邮的商家来说，意味着发货成本的上涨，这些原本依靠 廉价快递费赚钱，甚至不少赚快递钱的商家，正在慢慢消失，电商产业也有望借势完成升级。 低价电商坐不住了 在电商同样内卷的环境里，成本上涨时，要么提价，要么牺牲利润，否则只能被更有规模的大卖家挤掉。低价争夺中，有时候差一毛甚至5分钱，就能决 定商家的生死。 亿豹网认为，正是因为快递费长期太低了，商家才敢于抛出三四块钱包邮的策略，并利用末端的管理漏洞让快递买单。任何一个行业，都不应该拿另外一 个行业的血汗换取利润。 因此，快递涨价，并非简单的商业行为，对于快递行业高质量发展、电商产业转型升级，都有着重要的推动作用。 以河北为例，作为全国快递业务量第四大省，保定、石家庄、廊坊、邢台等产粮区发货价格较低，一块二三的价格遍地开花，甚至比广东产粮区价格还 低，尽管一度拉高了整体业务量，但河北的特价件同样要全国网点为之买单，产业升级迫在眉睫。 此轮上涨0.5元到1元不等，河北的电商首先坐不住了。一位河北毛巾卖家吐槽："各大 ...

A股复盘 | 缩量和"电风扇"最配噢 / 2025.09.10 群总这几天成了舆论焦点，跌的时候忍着，一割就反弹！ 我们还有一个小伙伴昨天卖了淳中科技，哈哈哈，拍断大腿！ 我捋了下今天算力、PCB、光通信这些板块反弹的原因。 一是前面跌得多了，有人忍不住要出手！ 二是甲骨文爆单了！ 衡量已预订收入的最受欢迎指标—— 未履行履约义务（RPO）在截至8月31日的第一财季飙升359%，至4550亿美 元。 三是英伟达宣布将推出NVIDIA Rubin CPX，这是一款专为大规模上下文处理而设计的新型GPU。 四是孙潇雅又出手了！发了个研报说，AI发展促进高端PCB铜箔需求和产品迭代，国产商有望分享产业增长蛋糕。 五是花旗明牌看好光通信，还上调中际旭创/新易盛/天孚通信目标价至569元/472元/196元。 花旗说，近期光通信股价上涨主要由盈利预测上调驱动，而不是非理性估值重估（当前2026财年市盈率仍低于20倍）。 花旗基本维持对2026财年行业出货量的预测， 同时将2027财年行业需求预估从4950万/1800万（800G/1.6T）上调至5630万/1920万 （800G/1.6T），相当于同比增长42%。 这 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，根据物流指闻等数据，7、8月以来以广东、义乌为代表的产 量区陆续开始调价，其他周边省市也陆续跟进，截止到目前，已宣布涨价省市市占率占全国约80%(根 据25H1数据统计)。基于7、8月以来的涨价趋势，行业提价有望持续，加盟商和上市公司业绩均有望实 现修复。9月旺季到来，有望看到价格更大范围企稳回升，从而加盟商经营承压或将改善，快递业绩及 板块情绪有望实现阶段性修复。 浙商证券主要观点如下： "反内卷"政策定调，7月以来快递提价贯南北 2024年7月30日,中共中央政治局会议中首次提出要强化行业自律，防止"内卷式"恶性竞争。同年12月， 总书记出席中央经济工作会议。会议强调，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。2025年 7月1日，中央财经委会议再次强调"治理企业低价无序竞争"的问题，2025年7月8日，国家邮政局党组召 开会议，会议强调按照"五统一、一开放"基本要求，进一步加强行业监管，完善邮政快递领域市场制度 规则，旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争，依法依规整治末端服务质量问题。 根据物流指闻等数据，7、8月以来以广东、义乌为代表的产量区陆续开始调价，其他周边省 ...

Group 1 - JD Logistics (02618) saw a nearly 5% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 13.91 with a trading volume of HKD 422 million [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for August was 112.3, up 0.3 points from the previous month, marking a new high for the year and indicating six consecutive months of growth [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics surpassed 131 points, increasing by 0.5 points from the previous month, indicating accelerated growth [1] Group 2 - Bank of America released a report stating that the express delivery industry in China lacks positive catalysts in the short term due to the effects of price adjustments from the anti-involution trend [1] - JD Logistics is viewed as having a particularly good entry point, as third-quarter profit expectations have been reset [1] - Bank of America maintains a target price of HKD 16 for JD Logistics and has given it a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics (02618) shares increased nearly 5%, reaching HKD 13.91, with a trading volume of HKD 422 million [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for August was 112.3 points, up 0.3 points from the previous month, marking a new high for the year [1] - The e-commerce logistics index has risen for six consecutive months [1] - The total business volume index for e-commerce logistics surpassed 131 points, increasing by 0.5 points from the previous month, indicating accelerated growth [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Bank of America released a report stating that the price adjustment effects in the Chinese express delivery industry have already taken effect, suggesting a lack of positive catalysts for the industry in the short term [1] - JD Logistics is viewed as having a particularly good entry point, as third-quarter profit expectations have been reset [1] - Bank of America maintains a target price of HKD 16 for JD Logistics and assigns a "Buy" rating [1]

快递反内卷：反内卷保障良性竞争，监管力度决定持续性 20250909 摘要 快递行业经历"春秋战国"阶段，早期轻资产加盟模式难匹配电商增长， 后期重资产投入提升产能，头部企业通过价格战抢占市场份额。 单票收入下降分为成本驱动、理性竞争和非理性价格战三种类型。过去 五年单票收入下降主要由规模效应和自动化升级等成本端因素驱动。 2020 年极兔入局引发非理性价格战，导致行业业绩和估值下滑，网点 和快递员面临经营压力，网络稳定性受威胁。 义乌通过行政手段上调快递底价，浙江省出台条例禁止低于成本价竞争， 有效遏制恶性竞争，维护网络稳定。 2021 年反内卷行动后，头部公司市场份额回升，单票收入上升，盈利 能力显著修复，数字化转型进一步提高盈利水平。 2024 年下半年快递行业再次进入价格竞争阶段，头部公司为争夺市场 份额提升价格战力度，预计 2025 年春节后将加剧。 本轮反内卷依赖监管力度，短期内缓解行业竞争压力，排名靠后企业估 值得到修复，长期保障良性竞争，促进行业自然集中。 Q&A 快递行业反内卷的背景和近期发展情况如何？ 今年 7 月份，中央提出多行业反内卷的要求后，国家有关总局迅速召开了专题 会议，并强调旗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the oil tanker sector and dry bulk sector, highlighting potential opportunities in both areas [3][24]. Core Insights - The VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, with the Clarkson VLCC-TCE index reaching $56,000 on September 5, marking a week-on-week increase of 34% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the elasticity of oil tanker rates as the market approaches the peak season, driven by expected OPEC+ production increases and recovering refinery utilization rates [19][20]. - The dry bulk market is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by low supply growth and potential demand increases from upcoming projects and economic factors [23]. Summary by Sections Focus on Oil Tankers and Dry Bulk Opportunities - VLCC freight rates have shown significant increases across various routes, with Middle East to China rates at $58,000/day, up 38% week-on-week [1][10]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day in October, which may contribute to higher freight demand [19]. - Refinery utilization rates have improved, with major refineries operating at 81.59%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous week [19]. Industry Data Tracking - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1979 points, down 2.3% week-on-week, indicating a mixed performance in the dry bulk sector [23]. - The report notes that the supply side remains constrained, with only 10.4% of dry bulk vessels on order, suggesting limited capacity growth in the coming years [23]. Market Review - The transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.4% in the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.6 percentage points [64]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Jinling, while others like Shentong Express saw declines [64]. Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for the oil tanker sector include China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Jinling, and China Merchants South Oil [24]. - For the dry bulk sector, recommendations include Haitong Development and China Merchants Jinling, with a suggestion to pay attention to Pacific Shipping [24].