1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9] - For strategy, it is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different option varieties have different latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 489, with a price increase of 3 and a trading volume of 11.05 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various option varieties are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market trend [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various option varieties is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility [7] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Types 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: The OPEC+ production increase cycle has ended, and Russia has announced production cuts. The market shows a short - term upward受阻 pattern. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Supply is abundant, and the market is short - term bearish. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Port inventory is rising, and the market is bearish. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to accumulate, and the market is in a wide - range volatile pattern. It is recommended to construct a short volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, Plastic, Styrene) - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation of PE and PP is different, and the market is weak. It is recommended to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **PVC**: The market is in a certain trend, and specific strategies are not fully detailed in the summary [113] - **Plastic**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output - **Styrene**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: The tire industry's operating rate has changed, and the market is short - term weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip) - **PTA**: Social inventory is rising, and the market is in a weak consolidation pattern. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13] - **PX**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output - **Short - fiber**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output - **Bottle Chip**: No detailed strategy summary provided in the current output 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate has changed, and the market is in a rebound pattern. It is recommended to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory and social inventory are rising, and the market is in a consolidation pattern. It is recommended to construct a short volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.7 Other Options (Urea) - Urea: Port inventory is decreasing, and enterprise inventory is rising. The market is in a low - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to construct a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views LPG Section - Short - term valuation is reasonable, and the market will move in a range. Domestic civil gas supply and demand remain loose, with prices showing weak and narrow fluctuations. Ether - post C4 prices are in an upward - trending pattern. In the next week, civil demand will remain seasonally weak, and the short - term boost to the overall chemical end's operating rate is limited [3]. Propylene Section - Supply and demand are tightening, and prices have certain support. Although the supply will increase after the restart of some devices, there is still a large supply - demand gap in Shandong in August and September, and price support is expected to remain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part - Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices: Except for Shandong domestic gas, the price centers have all been adjusted upwards. For example, the prices of East China and South China civil gas and imported gas have increased to varying degrees [7][10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: The Panama Canal has slow passage, resulting in high freight rates; FEI discounts have narrowed; the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East has improved compared to last week [19]. - Propane prices: Some propane price indices have changed, such as the AFEI index increasing by 2.39% to 524.00 USD/t [32]. LPG Part - Supply - US propane shipments: Shipments to Japan and South Korea have significantly decreased on a week - on - week basis. Shipments to China this week are 50,000 tons, and Kpler statistics show that next week's shipments will increase significantly [3][45]. - Canadian propane shipments: There is no significant change in shipments [46]. - Middle East LPG shipments: Overall shipments have decreased compared to last week, and shipments to India have declined from a high level, while shipments to China have decreased [47][53]. - Imports of China, India, Japan, and South Korea: India's imports have increased, while China's imports have declined [60]. - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 521,000 tons (-1.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 216,000 tons (-0.6%) [3][61]. - Propane commodity volume: China's propane supply this week is 62,690 tons, a 10.35% week - on - week increase. Domestic refinery commodity volume has decreased by 2.66%, and the international ship arrival volume is 583,000 tons [75]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased, while MTBE operating rate has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of increase [78]. - LPG domestic refinery inventory: The week - on - week change is small [82]. - LPG terminal imported cargo inventory: Shandong and South China (excluding Fujian) have accumulated inventory, while other regions have reduced inventory [96]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The overall operating rate of the industry has changed slightly. For example, the operating rate of PDH has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 76.33% [107]. - Propylene industry chain prices: Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI have slightly decreased; propylene prices in different regions have different trends, with Shandong prices first rising and then falling, and East China prices rising slightly [110]. - Propylene industry chain profits: Some profit indicators have changed, such as MTO profit increasing by 75 yuan/ton to - 304 yuan/ton [4]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - Propylene national balance sheet - Supply: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 524,000 tons, with a 4.01% increase in the weighted operating rate [129]. - Propylene national balance sheet - Demand: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is 524,000 tons, with a - 0.22% change in the weighted operating rate [130].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity market experienced widespread declines on August 14, with coking coal dropping over 6% and coke falling over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1435.41 points, down 10.06 points or 0.7% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1987.6 points, down 16.05 points or 0.8% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal and Coke Market - Coking coal saw a significant drop, with prices falling over 6% after a brief dip of over 7% during the trading session [2] - Supply-side factors such as coal mine production inspections and the implementation of the 276 work system continue to disrupt market sentiment, limiting capacity release [2] - The daily customs clearance at the Mengkou port has recovered to over 1300 vehicles, alleviating some supply pressure [2] Group 3: Multi-Crystalline Silicon Market - Multi-crystalline silicon futures fell over 3%, with market dynamics expected to alternate between fundamental logic and "anti-involution" logic in the second half of the year [3] - Fluctuations in electricity prices will directly impact production costs, affecting the price center of multi-crystalline silicon [3] - The demand side has seen limited growth expectations due to the early consumption of market demand during the first half of the year [3] Group 4: Alkali and LPG Market - Caustic soda was one of the few industrial products to rise, increasing by 1.69% due to limited supply pressure from maintenance and unstarted production lines [4] - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity decreased by 1 percentage point to 84.1% [4] - LPG prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by a decrease in port arrivals and a recovery in demand from propane deep processing [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple energy - chemical futures are presented, including their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 486, down 5 with a decline of 0.92%, trading volume of 4.09 million lots, and open interest of 3.09 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various energy - chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.71, with a change of - 0.05, and the open interest PCR is 0.72, with a change of 0.14 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest call and put option open interest. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 600, and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various energy - chemical options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 26.505%, and the weighted implied volatility is 30.72%, down 1.56% [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in US crude oil inventories. The market is in a short - term upward -受阻 and downward - trending state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: Factory inventories are high, and the market is in a short - term bearish state. Strategies involve constructing a bearish spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Production and import data are presented. The market is in a weak state. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has decreased. The market is in a weak and volatile state. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Inventory is expected to decrease. The market is in a weak state. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Import volume has increased. The market is in a short - term weak state. Strategies include a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy [13]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Inventory has decreased, but filament has accumulated. The market is in a weak and volatile state. Strategies include a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy [14]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Production is high, and demand is low. The market is in a state of rebound. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory and production data are presented. The market is in a volatile state. Strategies include a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Inventory has decreased. The market is in a low - level volatile state. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16]. 3.4 Option Charts - Charts for various energy - chemical options are provided, including price trends, trading volume, open interest, PCR, implied volatility, and historical volatility cones, which help in analyzing the market conditions of different options [18][37][55] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combinations with sellers as the main body and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The document presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. The document provides the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various energy - chemical options [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of the option underlying are determined from the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. The document provides the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call open interest, and maximum put open interest of various energy - chemical options [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The document provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various energy - chemical options [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, US crude oil inventories decreased last week. The market is in a short - term upward - blocked and downward - adjusted state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: Factory inventories are high, and port inventories are in a high - level shock. The market is short - term bearish. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Production and capacity utilization are expected to rise, and imports are estimated. The market is in a weak state with pressure above. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: East China main port inventories have decreased significantly. The market is in a weak and wide - range shock state. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Production enterprise inventories are expected to decline. The market is in a weak state with bearish pressure above. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Imports have increased. The market is in a short - term weak state with pressure above. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Industry inventories have decreased, but filament inventories have increased. The market is in a weak consolidation state with pressure above. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [13] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Enterprises have high operating rates, and it is in the off - season of demand. The market is in a weak shock state with pressure above. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: Domestic inventories and production have increased. The market is in a shock state with support below. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. The market is in a low - level shock state. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies with sellers as the main body and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 492, with a rise of 2 and a rise - fall rate of 0.33%, and the trading volume is 4.87 million lots with a change of 1.58 million lots [4]. 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.88 with a change of 0.07, and the open interest PCR is 0.52 with a change of 0.01 [5]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, different option varieties have corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 550 and the support level is 480 [6]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Each option variety has different implied volatility indicators such as at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 27.72%, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.76% with a change of - 3.41% [7]. 3.5. Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1. Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows a decrease in US crude oil inventory. The market shows short - term weakness after an attempt to rebound. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: Factory and port inventories are at relatively high levels, and the market is short - term bearish. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy for put options, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2. Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Production and import data are given, and the market is in a weak state. Strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory in the main port in East China has decreased. The market shows a wide - range weak oscillation. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3. Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory of production enterprises is expected to change. The market is in a weak state. The strategy is to hold a long spot + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.4. Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The import volume has increased. The market shows short - term weakness. Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.5. Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The industry inventory has decreased, but the filament inventory has increased. The market is in a weak consolidation state. Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.5.6. Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The enterprise's production is high, and it is in the off - season of demand. The market shows a weak oscillation. The strategy is to construct a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory and production data are given, and the market is in a weak and bearish state. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.5.7. Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly. The market shows a low - level oscillation. Strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying market, research on option factors, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties. Volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying market has a turning point, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the underlying option market [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option positions, and maximum put option positions of various option varieties are provided. These are determined from the strike prices of the maximum call and put option positions [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for each option variety [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The U.S. crude oil inventory decreased last week. The market showed a short - term upward rebound受阻 pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates around the mean. The open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling portfolio, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: Factory inventories decreased slightly, while port inventories are at a high level and oscillating. The market is short - term bearish. The implied volatility of LPG options is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR indicates strong bearish power. Strategies include a bearish put option spread, a bearish call + put option selling portfolio, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: China's methanol production and capacity utilization are expected to increase, and import volumes are estimated. The market shows a weak pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of methanol options is falling and fluctuating below the mean. The open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market. Strategies include a bearish call + put option selling portfolio and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory in East China's main ports decreased significantly. The market shows a weak and wide - range oscillating pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - mean level. The open interest PCR indicates an oscillating market. Strategies include a volatility - selling strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory of polyethylene and polypropylene production enterprises is expected to change. The market shows a weak pattern with bearish pressure above. The implied volatility of polypropylene options fluctuates around the historical mean. The open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in July increased. The market shows a short - term weak pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of rubber options first rises sharply and then falls to around the mean. The open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a neutral call + put option selling portfolio [13]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The industry inventory has decreased, but there is inventory accumulation in finished filament. The market shows a weak - oscillating pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level above the mean. The open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. Strategies include a neutral call + put option selling portfolio [14]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Enterprises have high production starts, but it is the off - season for demand, and export orders are few. The market shows a weak - oscillating pattern with pressure above. The implied volatility of caustic soda options first rises sharply and then falls but remains at a high level. The open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high, and production has increased. The market shows a weak - bearish pattern. The implied volatility of soda ash options first rises sharply and then falls but remains at a high level. The open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. Strategies include a volatility - selling portfolio and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The total inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The market shows a low - level oscillating pattern. The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical mean. The open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. Strategies include a bearish call + put option selling portfolio and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16].

前期，国际原油价格大跌，打压液化气市场。目前，投资者观望情绪加重，液化气上行动力不足，叠加 需求端恢复仍未有起色，短期液化气期价或维持弱势振荡。中长期来看，市场对9月中下旬及10月需求 预期较为乐观。 9月CP价格涨幅不及预期 7—8月国内液化气市场需求量较前期变化不大，且表现一般。虽然在价格上涨过程中，部分贸易商进行 补库囤货操作，但库存也只是从上游向社会库存转移，实际终端消耗有限。目前，终端需求仍未出现好 转迹象。近期，多地现货市场走跌，下游仍以阶段性补货为主，入市较为谨慎。 供应方面，国内液化气商品库存总量处在相对高位，当前值在43.16万吨，环比增加0.38万吨，相比4月 初的34万—35万吨，涨幅在25%左右。其中，华南地区库存上升较为明显。除东北地区外，其余地区库 存均有小幅上升。一方面，因为下游观望情绪浓厚，入市积极性不高;另一方面，短期国内炼厂无检修 和停工计划，炼厂开工平稳。 液化气基差逐渐收窄 近期，液化气期货主力2011合约承压下行。基差方面，上市初期主力合约基差在193.67元/吨，随后基差 不断回归，自4月底开始呈现明显的现货贴水现象，最小值一度达到-1008.33元/吨。截至9月1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly on the short - selling side, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table shows the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy - chemical futures contracts. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 510, down 7 with a decline of 1.28%, trading volume of 14.58 million lots, and open interest of 2.82 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators for volume and open interest of different energy - chemical options are presented. These indicators help describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.89 with a change of - 0.12, and the open - interest PCR is 0.75 with a change of - 0.10 [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 480 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility and volume - weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.835, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.67 with a change of - 1.69 [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventories have increased. The market showed a short - term upward trend followed by a decline last week. Implied volatility is around the average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long - collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: Factory and port inventories are at high levels. The market is short - oriented in the short term. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Similar to crude oil, it has corresponding strategies for volatility and spot long - hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Production enterprise inventories and orders have decreased. The market is weak with pressure above. Implied volatility is around the average. Strategies include short - neutral option combinations and long - collar hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate is stable, but production profits are under pressure. The market shows a narrow - range volatile pattern. Strategies involve short - selling volatility and long - collar hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The number of maintenance production lines has decreased, and production has increased. The market is weak with upward pressure. Strategies include long - collar hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The opening area and output in Hainan have decreased. The market is in a short - term downward trend. Strategies involve short - neutral option combinations [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Factory inventories are accumulating, and price rebound is restricted. The market shows a slight upward trend with pressure. Strategies include short - neutral option combinations [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The average utilization rate of production capacity has slightly decreased. The market is volatile with pressure. Strategies include long - collar hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventories are at a high level. The market has experienced a significant decline after a rise. Strategies include short - selling volatility and long - collar hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. The market is volatile under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - bearish option combinations and long - collar hedging [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices of various energy - chemical futures showed different trends. For example, crude oil (SC2509) was at 513, down 15 (-2.86%); liquefied petroleum gas (PG2509) was at 3,923, down 64 (-1.61%); methanol (MA2509) was at 2,383, down 20 (-0.83%) [4]. 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Position PCR - The PCR indicators of different option varieties varied. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil was 1.01 with a change of 0.46, and the position PCR was 0.85 with a change of 0.01. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 640 and the support level was 500; the pressure level of liquefied petroleum gas was 5,200 and the support level was 3,800 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also differed. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil was 33.445, and the weighted implied volatility was 36.36 with a change of - 1.17 [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventories increased. The market showed a short - term upward受阻and then downward trend. Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean. Recommended strategies included constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Factory and port inventories were at high levels. The market was short - term bearish. Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level. Recommended strategies included constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Production enterprise inventories and orders decreased. The market was weakly bullish with pressure. Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean. Recommended strategies included constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate was stable, but production profits were under pressure. The market was weakly bullish with pressure. Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean. Recommended strategies included constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, Plastic, Styrene) - **Polypropylene**: The number of maintenance production lines decreased, and production increased. The market was weakly bearish. Implied volatility was around the historical mean. Recommended strategies included a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: Hainan's natural rubber production decreased. The market was bearish. Implied volatility decreased to around the mean after a sharp increase. Recommended strategies included constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (Para - xylene, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip) - **PTA**: Factory inventories continued to accumulate, and prices were under pressure. The market was slightly bullish with pressure. Implied volatility was at a relatively high level. Recommended strategies included constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Urea) - **Caustic Soda**: The average utilization rate of production capacity decreased slightly. The market was weakly bullish with pressure. Implied volatility was at a relatively high level. Recommended strategies included a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventories continued to accumulate at a high level. The market was bearish after a sharp decline. Implied volatility was at a relatively high level. Recommended strategies included constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Urea**: Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. The market was bearish with fluctuations. Implied volatility was below the historical mean. Recommended strategies included constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].