Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is closely tied to ethylene profitability, with historical cycles lasting approximately 6-8 years, and the next peak expected around 2025 due to pandemic impacts [1][4][17]. - Oil prices are positively correlated with the petrochemical stock index, necessitating attention to supply-demand dynamics and full costs, with Middle Eastern countries requiring higher oil prices for fiscal balance [1][5][7]. - The real estate industry requires a comprehensive analysis of policy, valuation, economy, and profitability, with significant influence from the synchronized monetary cycles of China and the US [1][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: Oil prices are a critical indicator for the petrochemical industry, with fluctuations directly affecting stock indices. The expected price range is between $45-80 per barrel in the coming years [1][5][14]. - **OPEC Strategies**: OPEC will shift to a market share preservation strategy in 2025 due to increased production from non-OPEC countries and US inflation control measures [1][9][13]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical factors significantly impact oil prices, with recent tensions having a pronounced effect, although risks have somewhat diminished recently [1][12][16]. - **Investment Focus**: Investment in the petrochemical sector should prioritize new materials and fine chemicals, moving away from outdated small-scale operations [1][24]. Additional Important Content - **Capital Expenditure**: High oil prices encourage capital expenditure among companies, while low prices can lead to reduced production and investment [6][10]. - **Ethylene as an Indicator**: Ethylene profitability serves as a key measure of the petrochemical industry's health, with historical data indicating cyclical peaks and troughs [4][17]. - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is currently undervalued, with stable cash flows and dividend capabilities, making it an area of interest for investors [1][43]. - **Supply-Side Reforms**: The shift from demand-side to supply-side reforms in real estate aims to improve supply quality, despite potential short-term negative impacts on the economy and employment [1][38][40]. Conclusion The petrochemical and real estate industries are undergoing significant transformations influenced by cyclical patterns, geopolitical factors, and strategic shifts in investment focus. Investors should remain vigilant about these dynamics to identify potential opportunities and risks in the market.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Crude oil [1] - Bearish: Short fiber, Styrene [1] - Volatile: Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Coke, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live pigs, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Black liquor, PVC, LPG, Shipping freight [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as asset shortages, weak economies, mine production disruptions, seasonal demand changes, and geopolitical situations. Before the National Day holiday, market sentiment is volatile, and funds have a demand for risk aversion. Different industries and varieties show different trends, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to supply - demand and macro - economic changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern before the National Day holiday is low. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and weak economies are beneficial, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk prompts suppress the upward space [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Gold: May fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, but beware of increased volatility during the National Day holiday [1] - Silver: Expected to run strongly in the short term, but beware of sharp fluctuations during the National Day holiday. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Copper: The accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine has reduced production by 35% (annual output of 800,000 metric tons of metal), intensifying concerns about tight global copper supply. The price may run strongly in the short term [1] - Aluminum: The impact of macroscopic factors has weakened, and the price may fluctuate based on fundamentals [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, pressuring the spot price, but the price is approaching the cost line, and the downward space is limited [1] - Zinc: The supply delay of Huoshaoyun has improved the fundamentals, but high social inventories are still pressuring the price [1] - Nickel: Short - term volatility may be upward, but there is still long - term pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Suggest short - term trading in intervals and light positions during the holiday [1] - Stainless steel: Raw material prices are firm, social inventories are increasing, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term. Suggest short - term trading and waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1] - Tin: The demand in the peak season is expected to improve, and low - buying opportunities can be concerned [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The upward driving force of the industry is insufficient, and there is a risk of weakening supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Suggest reducing positions during the holiday [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand and high inventories [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: After the coking coal 05 contract reached a new high and then sharply corrected, before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee, the policy may enter a window period. Before the holiday, long - position holders should gradually exit the market, and if there is a rally, short - selling hedging is the main strategy [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and Indian purchases impact the price, but the September production reduction in Malaysia and biodiesel demand support it. The price is expected to recover from the previous over - decline [1] - Soybean oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and domestic purchases may supplement the supply, weakening the fourth - quarter destocking expectation. The price is expected to recover from the over - decline. Suggest waiting and seeing [1] - Rapeseed oil: The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term remains unchanged. Positive spreads are preferred [1] - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate widely within a range, and there may be pressure in the long term with the listing of new cotton [1] - Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to oversupply. In China, the import increase and processing plant operation still bring pressure, and short - selling at high prices is still recommended [1] - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. Pay attention to traders' purchasing rhythm and policy changes [1] - Soybean: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing margin is poor, and the price has support at the bottom. Suggest buying at low prices. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American planting - season weather [1] - Pulp: The bottom range of the pulp futures has initially emerged, but there is no bullish driver yet. Pay attention to the warehouse - receipt cancellation volume after September delivery. The futures price will fluctuate [1] - Log: The fundamentals of logs have no obvious changes. The overseas quotation has decreased, and the spot price is firm. The log futures will fluctuate [1] - Live pigs: The pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight does not decrease significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The market is generally bearish [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Driven by short - term geopolitical tensions and a second - consecutive - week decline in US crude oil inventories [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by factors such as a super typhoon in South China, continuous inventory decline, and a significant reduction in RU warehouse receipts compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are loose, the synthetic rubber supply is abundant, the downstream transactions are weakening, the warehouse receipts on the disk are sharply reduced, and the inter - month spread is widening. Pay attention to the capital - flow trend [1] - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the PTA output is increasing, the PTA basis is rapidly declining, the crude oil price is falling, the PX plant maintenance is postponed, and the downstream polyester profit is significantly repaired, with the operating load rising to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis of ethylene glycol is strengthening, but the upcoming commissioning of the Yulong Petrochemical ethylene glycol plant puts pressure on the disk. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery [1] - Short fiber: Short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened as the price falls [1] - Styrene: The supply of pure benzene and styrene is continuously increasing after the end of maintenance, the Yulong Petrochemical plant is about to be commissioned, and the import pressure of domestic pure benzene is increasing due to the unopened South Korea - US price difference [1] - Black liquor: The export sentiment has eased, the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: The domestic PVC plants are gradually resuming production, the supply pressure is increasing, and the near - month warehouse receipts are abundant. The price will fluctuate weakly [1] - LPG: OPEC+ production increase and high domestic crude oil inventories suppress the upward momentum of LPG, the chemical demand is weak, and the profit negative feedback leads to a decline in the cost PG [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term) [1] - Bearish: Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel (long - term), Black Metal, Soda Ash, Pig, Container Shipping to Europe [1] - Neutral: Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel (short - term), Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coal, Pulp, Log, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Pure Benzene Styrene, PE, PVC, PP [1] Core Views - The market trading volume has shrunk but remains above 2 trillion this week. With numerous macro events, investors should control risks in stock index positions and focus on adjusting and going long [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September supports the gold price, while the Fed's interest - rate meeting affects the prices of other commodities such as copper, aluminum, etc [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Control risks in positions and adjust to go long [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Precious metals - Gold: Bullish, supported by the approaching Fed rate cut in September [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, but beware of increased volatility [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pressured by the approaching Fed meeting, but the downside is expected to be limited [1] - Aluminum: At risk of correction due to some long - position profit - taking [1] - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited [1] - Zinc: At risk of short - term correction due to increasing social inventories [1] - Nickel: Short - term shock is strong, but more news is needed to break through upwards. Long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term shock is strong, but long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] Industrial silicon and related products - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, and terminal installation willingness is low [1] - Polysilicon: There are expectations of production cuts [1] - Lithium carbonate: The expected resumption of production in a lithium mine and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Black metals - Threaded steel: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to threaded steel [1] - Iron ore: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1] - Black metal: Supply surplus pressure persists, and the price is under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1] - Soda ash: Weak reality, large supply surplus pressure, and price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: The bottom support is relatively strong, and the price is expected to rise in the future. Consider partial profit - taking for long positions [1] - Coke: Bullish, with similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The flood in Malaysia's Sabah state brings supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to go long or buy out - of - the - money call options [1] - Soybean oil: The de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider going long on volatility [1] - Rapeseed oil: Consider the positive spread strategy of contract 11 - 1 [1] - Cotton: New cotton is expected to be abundant, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - Sugar: The price is expected to be weak in shock, but the short - term downside is limited [1] - Corn: The C01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal: The overall expectation is neutral, and the cost side provides support [1] Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1] - Fuel oil: Similar to crude oil [1] - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, and the number of warehouse receipts is significantly reduced compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: The market is in shock. Pay attention to inventory de - stocking and autumn equipment maintenance [1] - PTA: Production increases, the basis drops rapidly, and the downstream polyester operating rate rises to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis strengthens, but the new device brings pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts weakens [1] - Pure benzene styrene: Supply increases, and the domestic import pressure of pure benzene rises [1] - PE: The price is in shock and weak [1] - PVC: The supply pressure increases, and the price is in shock and weak [1] - PP: The peak - season demand is not met, and the inventory accumulates [1]

Market Overview - The market has returned to previous highs, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has not yet surpassed its previous high [1] - Both Chinese and US markets are currently stable, awaiting significant trading events in the coming week [2] - The 10-year treasury yield at 1.8% has seen increased institutional buying, indicating ongoing liquidity pressure [1] Investment Strategy - The overall judgment of "stock market oscillation upward" continues, with a focus on marginal funds and pricing direction this week [1] - Three key investment directions are suggested: 1. Small-cap growth manufacturing sectors benefiting from easing policies (robotics, new energy, machinery) [1] 2. Cyclical sectors such as real estate and dividends [1] 3. Undervalued sectors like pharmaceuticals that continue to attract active funds [1] Hot Topics - Various ETFs are highlighted for different investment strategies, including: - High-tech ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and innovation [2] - Financial technology ETFs and brokerage ETFs as part of a bull market strategy [2] - ETFs related to food and internet sectors for recovery plays [2] - The market's structural expectations are anticipated to clarify during the upcoming trading week [2] Global Context - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and new rounds of negotiations between China and the US are key global focus points [2] - There is a notable contrast between global easing expectations and domestic liquidity conditions [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The glass and soda ash market continued to be weak on September 3rd [2]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, and the anti - involution logic has become long - term. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the industry still faces oversupply, which hinders price increases, especially for the 09 contract as its delivery is approaching [2]. - Glass supply remains stable, but demand is weak. With the "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the terminal performance is unlikely to improve, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Soda ash supply will return to a high level. Short - term direct demand is okay, but due to the increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, inventory pressure is high and prices are under pressure [2]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage and short on rallies [2] Group 3: Market Data Glass - Futures prices on September 4th: 1 - month contract is 1135, 5 - month contract is 1235, 9 - month contract is 940. Price changes are 1 (0.09%), 2 (0.16%), - 15 (- 1.57%) respectively. Spreads: 1 - 5 month is - 100, 5 - 9 month is 295, 9 - 1 month is - 195. Spot prices: 1200, 1140, 1240 in different regions. The basis of the main contract is 5, etc. [1] Soda Ash - Futures prices on September 4th: 1 - month contract is 1276, 5 - month contract is 1357, 9 - month contract is 1158. Price changes are 9 (0.71%), 10 (0.74%), 6 (0.52%) respectively. Spreads: 1 - 5 month is - 81, 5 - 9 month is 199, 9 - 1 month is - 118. Spot prices: 1000, 1300, 1250 in different regions. The basis of the main contract is - 276, etc. [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity market experienced widespread declines on August 14, with coking coal dropping over 6% and coke falling over 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1435.41 points, down 10.06 points or 0.7% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1987.6 points, down 16.05 points or 0.8% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal and Coke Market - Coking coal saw a significant drop, with prices falling over 6% after a brief dip of over 7% during the trading session [2] - Supply-side factors such as coal mine production inspections and the implementation of the 276 work system continue to disrupt market sentiment, limiting capacity release [2] - The daily customs clearance at the Mengkou port has recovered to over 1300 vehicles, alleviating some supply pressure [2] Group 3: Multi-Crystalline Silicon Market - Multi-crystalline silicon futures fell over 3%, with market dynamics expected to alternate between fundamental logic and "anti-involution" logic in the second half of the year [3] - Fluctuations in electricity prices will directly impact production costs, affecting the price center of multi-crystalline silicon [3] - The demand side has seen limited growth expectations due to the early consumption of market demand during the first half of the year [3] Group 4: Alkali and LPG Market - Caustic soda was one of the few industrial products to rise, increasing by 1.69% due to limited supply pressure from maintenance and unstarted production lines [4] - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity decreased by 1 percentage point to 84.1% [4] - LPG prices rose for the fourth consecutive day, supported by a decrease in port arrivals and a recovery in demand from propane deep processing [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists. The near - term prices are constrained by the weak reality, with the oversupply situation continuing. For glass, demand has some resilience but is hard to improve in the off - season, supply is stable, and inventory accumulates significantly. For soda ash, supply returns to a high level, demand weakens, costs provide support, but near - term inventory is large and faces delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on long positions in the far - month contracts for glass and cash - and - carry arbitrage for soda ash [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The industry start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable [3]. - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season. Speculative demand fades as prices decline [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices are mainly under pressure, and costs provide support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality remains, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Weak reality and strong expectations lead to price oscillations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in far - month contracts for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy. Pay attention to daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Supply increases as maintenance enterprises resume production [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand weakens as prices fall [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Total manufacturer inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons from last Thursday, or 3.86%. Light soda ash inventory is 717,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1475 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices fluctuate significantly, and costs provide support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4]. - Investment View: Bearish. Weak reality and strong expectations, with high inventory [4]. - Trading Strategy: No unilateral trading strategy; take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage. Pay attention to soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1063 (- 39), and the Shahe spot price was 1104 (- 80) [6]. - Soda Ash: This week, prices declined. The main contract was transferred to the 01 contract, closing at 1332, and the Shahe spot price was 1257 (+ 10) [11]. - Spread/Basis: For soda ash, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis both decreased significantly. For glass, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis also decreased significantly [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable. Glass production profits decline as spot prices fall [23]. - Demand: Resilient. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. From January to June, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the newly started area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8% [26][27]. - Inventory: Accumulating. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Output returns to a high level. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Alkali plant profits decline as soda ash prices weaken [31][32]. - Demand: Weakening. Overall demand is weakening, short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand fades as prices fall. Manufacturer inventory increases significantly [35].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: August 5, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. After the cooling of macro sentiment, nickel prices will return to the oversupply trading logic and continue to test cost support. Although nickel prices may have a phased rebound under emotional support, the upside is still under pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 4th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract opened lower and then continued to rise, closing at 120,630, up 0.54%. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,996 to 196,963 lots [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the price has further downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end. In the NPI sector, the short - term price of nickel ore is still high, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Although the nickel - iron price has recovered recently, the sustainability is not strong. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the NPI price will mainly operate at the bottom [7]. - The nickel - salt price has recovered due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro has not yet substantially boosted demand, and the nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless - steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of more than $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10]. - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable - energy consumption goals [10].