研究报告 Research Report 19 Dec 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 11 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，多数消费跑输指数 Moderate, Uneven Inflation; Most Consumer Sectors Underperform the Index [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI 80 100 120 140 160 HAI Southeast Asia Staples HAI Southeast Asia Discretionary MSCI China Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 10 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，消费需求结构性改善 Inflation Moderate and Differentiated; Consumption Structurally Impr ...

Group 1 - Two studies published in Nature confirm the efficacy and safety of a new diabetes drug, Masitide, developed by China's Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, showing superior blood sugar control and weight loss compared to placebo and Dulaglutide [1] - The studies involved Phase III clinical trials with Chinese type 2 diabetes patients, demonstrating improvements in cardiovascular, liver, and kidney-related indicators [1] - Masitide is a dual receptor agonist for glucagon-like peptide-1 and glucagon, providing high-quality evidence for overweight, obese, and diabetic patients, highlighting China's research capabilities in this field [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the Dow Jones up 65.88 points (0.14%), S&P 500 up 53.33 points (0.79%), and Nasdaq up 313.04 points (1.38%), driven by gains in large tech stocks [2] - Notable stock performances included Tesla rising over 3%, and Micron Technology increasing over 10% [2] - Chinese concept stocks also saw gains, with Zhihu up over 3% and XPeng Motors up over 2% [2] Group 3 - The State Council of China issued an opinion to combat illegal tobacco activities, focusing on countering counterfeit and smuggled tobacco products, and enhancing law enforcement collaboration with other countries [3] - The opinion aims to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [3] Group 4 - BHP CEO Mike Henry emphasized the critical role of copper in the economy and its demand surge, predicting a bull market for copper due to supply constraints [4] - The annual market size for copper is estimated between $300 billion and $400 billion, with a projected 70% increase in demand by 2050, while new mining discoveries are becoming rarer and more challenging to develop [4] Group 5 - Meituan released and open-sourced a state-of-the-art virtual human video generation model, LongCat-Video-Avatar, which supports multiple tasks and has undergone significant upgrades in realism and stability [5] Group 6 - Zhihui Mining's shares rose 126.16% in dark trading, with a planned global offering of 122 million H-shares at HKD 4.51 each, focusing on zinc, lead, and copper mining in Tibet [6] Group 7 - Evergrande Auto announced a change in the registered shareholder of its subsidiary to Guangzhou Juliyi, with stock trading suspended pending further notice [7] Group 8 - Wasion Holdings' subsidiary won a contract worth over RMB 80 million for a project with CPFL, a leading power company in Brazil, and expects significant growth in AI data center revenues [8] - The company anticipates a doubling of AI data center revenue from RMB 1 billion in 2025 to RMB 2 billion in 2026, with new orders expected to grow significantly [8] Group 9 - Citigroup raised its profit forecasts for Wasion Holdings by 1% to 5% for 2025-2027, increasing the target price from HKD 15.5 to HKD 21, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]

1、证监会：吸引更多新质生产力领域优质企业上市 重要程度：★★★★★ 12月18日，中国证监会主席、中国资本市场学会会长吴清出席中国资本市场学会学术委员会成立会议暨第 一届第一次全体委员会议，并主持召开资本市场"十五五"规划专家座谈会。会上，大家围绕如何做好资本 市场"十五五"规划提出了前瞻性、建设性的意见建议，主要包括： 持续活跃并购重组市场，严格常态化退市； 推动完善人工智能在资本市场应用的治理和监管； 从严打击财务造假，加强投资者保护和教育等等。 吴清表示，证监会将深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，扎实推进资本市场"十 五五"规划编制和实施，紧扣防风险、强监管、促高质量发展的工作主线，持续深化资本市场投融资综合 改革，稳步扩大制度型高水平对外开放，持续提高资本市场制度包容性吸引力，更好服务经济高质量发展 和中国式现代化大局。 2、美国CPI数据意外回落 美联储1月份降息概率提升 重要程度：★★★★ 美国11月CPI同比增长2.7%，预估为增长3.1%。美国11月核心CPI同比增长2.6%，预估为增长3%。数据公 布后，美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has issued an opinion aimed at combating illegal activities related to tobacco, including counterfeiting, smuggling, and sales, to purify the tobacco market and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The opinion emphasizes the need to combat overseas counterfeiting and smuggling of tobacco products, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to address counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands [1]. - It calls for strict measures against various forms of tobacco smuggling, including maritime and land-based operations, and emphasizes the need for comprehensive management of tobacco-related issues at borders and ports [1]. - The opinion also highlights the importance of controlling risks associated with transportation tools and international mail to prevent smuggling activities [1]. Group 2: Domestic Enforcement and Regulation - The opinion mandates a crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of supply chains for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It stresses the need for strict regulation of e-cigarettes and illegal tobacco products, including those resembling traditional tobacco products, and calls for the prohibition of unauthorized production and sales of tobacco-related items [2]. - The opinion outlines the necessity of strengthening the tobacco industry's vertical management system and enhancing the connection between administrative enforcement and criminal justice [2]. Group 3: Responsibilities and Coordination - The opinion emphasizes the importance of local authorities and relevant departments taking responsibility for combating illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented [2]. - It calls for a comprehensive approach to ensure that all tasks related to combating illegal tobacco activities are well-coordinated and executed [2].

证券日报网讯12月18日，兰剑智能在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司业务布局涵盖烟草、半导 体、电商、航空航天等二十多个行业，2023年至2024年公司持续在航空航天行业与优质客户中航光电 （002179）科技股份有限公司进行深度合作；相关信息请参考披露的公开资料。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the State Council's recent issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Illegal Tobacco Activities," which outlines targeted policy measures to address issues such as tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales, aiming to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The Opinions emphasize the need to combat overseas counterfeit tobacco and smuggling, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to tackle counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands and illegal tobacco entering China [1]. - It calls for strengthened enforcement against various forms of tobacco smuggling, including maritime and land border operations, and comprehensive management of tobacco-related issues at special zones [1]. - The document highlights the importance of risk control in international transport and postal services to prevent tobacco smuggling through these channels [1]. Group 2: Domestic Crackdown on Tobacco Violations - The Opinions mandate a rigorous crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including the disruption of supply chains for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery [2]. - It specifies the need for strict regulation of illegal storage, transportation, and online sales of tobacco products, as well as enhanced oversight of electronic cigarettes and similar products [2]. - The document also prohibits the unauthorized production and sale of tobacco-related products, emphasizing the need to combat illegal manufacturing and sales of products resembling tobacco [2]. Group 3: Support and Enforcement Mechanisms - The Opinions propose strengthening the vertical management system within the tobacco industry and improving inter-departmental enforcement collaboration [2]. - It stresses the importance of professional law enforcement capacity building and the need for strict, standardized, and fair enforcement practices [2]. - The document calls for local authorities and relevant departments to take responsibility for combating illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the State Council's recent issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Illegal Tobacco Activities," which outlines targeted policy measures to address issues such as tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales, aiming to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 1: Measures Against Illegal Tobacco Activities - The Opinions emphasize the need to combat the overseas production and smuggling of counterfeit tobacco products, enhancing law enforcement collaboration with relevant countries to tackle the illegal flow of tobacco into China [1]. - It calls for a comprehensive crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including severing the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery, and strictly regulating the storage, transportation, and sale of illegal tobacco products [2]. - The document highlights the importance of strengthening electronic cigarette regulation and prohibits the unauthorized production and sale of tobacco-related products, including nicotine pouches and other similar items [2]. Group 2: Support and Enforcement Mechanisms - The Opinions propose enhancing the vertical management system of the tobacco industry and improving inter-departmental law enforcement mechanisms to ensure effective collaboration between administrative and criminal justice systems [2]. - It stresses the need for professional law enforcement capacity building and the establishment of a standardized and professional enforcement team to ensure rigorous and fair law enforcement practices [2]. - The article underscores the responsibility of local authorities and relevant departments to prioritize the crackdown on illegal tobacco activities, ensuring that all measures are effectively implemented and interconnected [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Illegal Tobacco Activities" by the State Council, which aims to address issues such as tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales to purify the tobacco market environment and protect national interests and consumer rights [1][2]. Group 2 - The Opinions emphasize the need to combat illegal tobacco activities from abroad, including strengthening law enforcement cooperation with relevant countries to crack down on counterfeit Chinese tobacco brands and illegal tobacco entering China [1]. - It calls for a comprehensive crackdown on domestic illegal tobacco activities, including severing the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery, and strictly regulating the storage, transportation, and sale of illegal tobacco products [2]. - The Opinions propose enhancing the regulatory framework for the tobacco industry, improving inter-departmental enforcement mechanisms, and ensuring effective coordination between administrative and criminal law enforcement [2].

Core Viewpoint - The narrative surrounding the decline of traditional consumption, particularly in sectors like liquor, luxury watches, and fuel vehicles, has gained traction online, with the term "老登" (Old Deng) becoming a symbol of generational conflict and a critique of older consumer habits [1][12][18] Group 1: Understanding "老登" Brands - "老登" brands, such as liquor and cigarettes, are characterized by their exclusivity and emotional resonance, which creates a strong identity among their consumers [10][11] - The term "老登" carries a negative connotation, reflecting a rejection of older consumer values, while "老钱" (Old Money) is viewed more neutrally, indicating wealth accumulation over generations [5][7] - The success of "老登" brands lies in their ability to clearly define their target audience, allowing them to thrive despite negative perceptions from non-consumers [9][18] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - "老登" brands operate on a business model that does not rely on mass appeal or constant advertising, instead thriving on relationship networks and long-term trust [14][18] - The emotional backlash against "老登" consumption does not necessarily indicate a loss of market; rather, it may reflect external influences affecting sales [15] - The current discourse around "老登" consumption serves as a means for younger generations to express their identity and attitudes, transforming consumption into a form of social commentary [18]

Group 1: Japan Market Focus - The expected policy interest rate in Japan is projected to rise to 1% by 2026, driven by inflation concerns and the need for fiscal sustainability [11][15][13] - Key stocks to focus on include Bandai Namco and Oracle Japan, with Bandai Namco showing resilience despite a 23% year-on-year decline in operating profit, and Oracle Japan benefiting from partnerships with major firms like SoftBank [19][18] - The iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF is highlighted as a vehicle for investment, emphasizing quality management and financial stability in its constituent companies [22] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK economy faces downward risks, with GDP growth slowing and unemployment rising, leading to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [30][31] - Key stocks to monitor include Rolls-Royce Holdings and Imperial Brands, with Rolls-Royce benefiting from increased defense spending and Imperial Brands offering stable returns as a defensive stock [36][35] - The iShares MSCI UK ETF is recommended for exposure to large and mid-cap UK companies, reflecting the overall market performance [38] Group 3: South Korea Market Focus - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its interest rate at 2.5% until at least April 2026, influenced by inflation and economic recovery [45][43] - Factors supporting further upward movement in the KOSPI index include improving economic conditions and specific stocks like Samyang Foods and SK Hynix [46][41] - The iShares MSCI Korea ETF is suggested for investment, reflecting the broader market trends [42]