由于风险溢价接近历史最低水平，加之恒生指数业绩的下修，港股8月份没有延续继续大涨的行情，板 块业绩也出现了明显的分化。外卖大战是个不得不考虑的扰动，此外2季报后金融、高股息、本地股的 业绩下修也值得重视。板块方面，推荐： 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的发言被市场解读成鸽派信号，深究其言论背后，主张的是长期劳动力与通胀的平 衡，这比四年前的FAIT框架更加关注适应当下的情形。9月将披露8月的通胀数据，这是企业在关税基 本落定后开始向消费者传递通胀的首月，数据的质量决定了后续降息的节奏。 美联储库克事件还在发酵，虽然后续反诉也需要时间，但这无疑会不断增加市场对美联储的独立性的担 忧。鉴于后续的不确定性，建议跟踪加密币的走势，一旦加密币迟迟不创新高，要考虑流动性对美股影 响恶化的可能。 A股：加速上行中，成交量是关键 A股加速上行，成交量是关键。国信证券复盘了过去四次牛市的顶部区域，2.9%的单日换手率是关键位 置。在加速上行的过程中，换手率的不断放大是必要的。当前换手率达到了2.8%，且温和放大，代表 目前市场健康，后续应关注该换手率上行的持续性。 此外，从基钦周期上，测算11-12月，明年4月是两个比较重要的时间窗口。在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and stable profits for the first half of 2025, driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products, as well as cigarette exports, while increasing shareholder returns through dividends [1][2][4]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 10.32 billion, representing an 18.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - Tobacco leaf imports generated revenue of HKD 8.40 billion, up 23.5%, with an import volume of 97,900 tons, a 2.5% increase, and an average import price of HKD 8.58 million per ton, up 20.5% [1]. - Tobacco leaf exports saw revenue of HKD 1.16 billion, a 25.9% increase, with an export volume of 38,500 tons, up 12.7%, and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton, up 11.7% [2]. - Cigarette exports generated revenue of HKD 550 million, a slight increase of 0.8%, with an export volume of 1.019 billion sticks, down 7.9%, and an average export price of HKD 0.54 per stick, up 9.4% [2]. Profitability Summary - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was HKD 706 million, reflecting a 9.8% increase, with a gross margin of 9.2%, down 1.9 percentage points [1]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf imports was 8.2%, down 2.8 percentage points, primarily due to increased costs from CBT-sourced tobacco exceeding sales price increases [1]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf exports improved to 5.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, due to enhanced pricing strategies and market expansion efforts [2]. - The gross margin for cigarette exports increased to 25.7%, up 3.5 percentage points, despite a decline in export volume [2]. Dividend and Future Outlook - The company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, representing a 27% increase [1]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% respectively [4]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363.HK) reported a decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to reduced sales in the real estate sector and significant provisions for inventory impairment and fair value losses on investment properties [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 9.476 billion, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 1.042 billion, down 13.2% compared to the previous year [1] - The board declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.42 per share, with a payout ratio of 43.8% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The infrastructure and environmental protection business saw a profit decline of 11.6% to HKD 933 million, accounting for approximately 92.2% of the company's net profit [1] - The real estate segment reported a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 492 million, mainly due to reduced gross profit from property sales [2] - The health sector recorded a profit of HKD 141 million, an increase of 118.4%, representing about 14.0% of the company's net profit [2] - The consumer goods segment, specifically Nanyang Tobacco, achieved revenue of HKD 1.273 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with a net profit of HKD 337 million, up 20.0% [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on reform and innovation, accelerating the upgrade and transformation of its main businesses, and optimizing asset and business layout [1] - The company is responding to national policy directions by concentrating on water treatment and resource utilization, aiming to expand market share in the water and environmental industry [1] - The chairman emphasized the commitment to innovation-driven development and enhancing risk management to improve profitability [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 605 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 52% compared to 2024[1] - The expected operating revenue for 2025 is 4,157 million RMB, with a growth rate of 4% from 2024[1] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.6, with a PE ratio of 18[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Risks - The valuation for 2025-2027 is projected at 18x, 16x, and 14x, with a PEG ratio of less than 1 for 2026[1] - The company is expected to launch innovative and hard-to-replicate products, including a new drug expected to be approved in 2025[1] - Risks include fluctuations in customer demand and potential delays in product development[1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with the raw material drug business stabilizing[1] - The beverage industry is expected to see improved sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with a narrowing decline[1] - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with a target of 5 billion RMB by 2025[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][23]. Core Views - The real estate segment has negatively impacted both revenue and profit, with a 8.6% year-on-year decline in revenue to HKD 9.476 billion and a 13.2% drop in net profit to HKD 1.042 billion for the first half of 2025. This decline is attributed to reduced sales from property handovers and significant provisions for inventory impairment and fair value losses on investment properties [1][7]. - The infrastructure and environmental segment reported a revenue of HKD 4.433 billion, down 3% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 11.6% to HKD 933 million, primarily due to the impact of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge's exclusion from the financials and a loss from the sale of Yuefeng [2][12]. - The consumer and health segment showed positive growth, with revenue increasing by 11% to HKD 1.9 billion and net profit rising by 26% to HKD 433 million, driven by strong performance in the tobacco business and a one-time gain in the health sector [3][13]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - Revenue for the real estate segment was HKD 3.143 billion, a decrease of 23.2% year-on-year, with net losses expanding to HKD 465 million due to impairment provisions. The losses from Shanghai Industrial Development and Shanghai Urban Development were HKD 754 million and HKD 492 million, respectively [2][12]. Infrastructure and Environmental - The infrastructure segment's revenue was HKD 4.433 billion, down 3%, with net profit at HKD 933 million, a decline of 11.6%. The highway segment performed better, with a revenue increase of 5.1% to HKD 1.019 billion and a slight net profit increase of 0.5% to HKD 548 million [2][12]. Consumer and Health - The consumer segment achieved revenue of HKD 1.9 billion, up 11%, and net profit of HKD 433 million, up 26%. The tobacco business saw a revenue increase of 16.4% to HKD 1.273 billion, with a net profit of HKD 337 million, reflecting a 20% increase [3][13]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics show a decrease in debt, with interest-bearing liabilities dropping from HKD 59.492 billion to HKD 58.513 billion, and the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing from 53.5% to 51.5%. Financial expenses also fell by 15% to HKD 875 million [20][25]. Dividend Policy - The company maintained its dividend at HKD 0.42 per share, totaling HKD 457 million, with the payout ratio increasing from 38% to 43.8% [20][25]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of HKD 2.934 billion, HKD 3.084 billion, and HKD 3.197 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 4.8%, and 3.7% [4][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that UK companies are increasing their foreign exchange market hedging due to the significant appreciation of the pound and the weakening of the dollar, which has negatively impacted their profits [1][4] - According to a survey by MillTech, over half of UK companies reported that their earnings were adversely affected by foreign exchange fluctuations in the second quarter of this year, with their currency hedging ratio rising to approximately 53%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The pound has appreciated nearly 10% against the dollar in the first half of 2025, marking the largest increase for that period since 2009, which has pressured local exporters' profits and sales, particularly in the US market [1] Group 2 - The survey conducted by MillTech involved 250 UK and US companies, revealing that 18% of UK firms consider the Bank of England's monetary policy as the most significant factor affecting their currency hedging strategies, up from less than 10% a year ago [5] - British American Tobacco PLC, one of the largest exporters in the UK, expects a negative impact of 1% to 1.5% on its revenue this year due to foreign exchange headwinds, with the weakening dollar contributing approximately 50% to this adverse effect [4] - Unilever PLC reported a 5.1% negative impact from currency fluctuations, primarily due to the euro's strength against the dollar, complicating the situation for UK companies [4]

Core Insights - The global oral tobacco market is projected to reach $11.232 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.57%, and is expected to grow to $25.148 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.32% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2] - The North American and European markets are experiencing high growth rates, while the Asian and African markets are in early stages, indicating significant potential for rapid development in emerging markets [1][2] - The FDA's approval of flavored oral tobacco products is anticipated to act as a catalyst for market growth, potentially increasing the overall market ceiling [1][4] Market Overview - The retail market for oral tobacco is highly concentrated, with Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group holding market shares of 41.1%, 24.6%, and 13.8% respectively, totaling 79.5% of the market [2] - In 2024, the North American oral tobacco market is expected to reach $8.775 billion, growing by 58.30% year-on-year, while the European market is projected to reach $2.415 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 56.12% [1][2] Company Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN nicotine pouch sales are projected to be 644 million boxes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.93%, with U.S. sales accounting for 581 million boxes, up 51.49% [2] - British American Tobacco's oral tobacco sales, including brands like Velo and Grizzly, are expected to reach 8.3 billion pouches in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%, with U.S. sales surging by 234% [2] Regulatory Developments - The FDA has authorized the sale of 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, which are deemed to have lower harmful components compared to traditional cigarettes and most smokeless tobacco products, aligning with public health standards [4] - The approval of flavored products is expected to enhance market growth and expand the market's potential [4] Industry Opportunities - Jin Cheng Pharmaceutical is increasing its production capacity to 200 tons per year, focusing on high-purity nicotine for new tobacco products, which positions the company to benefit from the expanding oral tobacco market [5][6] - The company has received various certifications, including FDA PMTA approval, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the oral tobacco supply chain include Jin Cheng Pharmaceutical (300233.SZ) and Run Du Co., Ltd. (002923.SZ) [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 10.32 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.8% to HKD 706 million [1][2] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products and cigarette exports, while the net profit increase was attributed to improved profitability in cigarette and tobacco leaf exports, alongside a significant reduction in financing costs by 28% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, representing a 27% increase [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Revenue increased by 23.5% to HKD 8.4 billion, with an import volume of 97,900 tons (+2.5%) and an average import price of HKD 85,800 per ton (+20.5%). The gross margin decreased to 8.2% due to cost increases outpacing sales price increases [1] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue rose by 25.9% to HKD 1.16 billion, with an export volume of 38,500 tons (+12.7%) and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton (+11.7%). The gross margin improved to 5.5% [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue increased by 0.8% to HKD 550 million, with an export volume of 1.019 billion sticks (-7.9%) and an average export price of HKD 0.54 per stick (+9.4%). The gross margin improved to 25.7% [2] - New Tobacco Exports: Revenue fell by 66.5% to HKD 15 million, with an export volume of 81 million sticks (-65.4%) and an average export price of HKD 0.18 per stick (-3.0%). The gross margin remained at 5.5% [3] - Brazilian Operations: Revenue decreased by 50.3% to HKD 195 million, with an export volume of 7,900 tons (-34.8%) and an average export price of HKD 24,600 per ton (-23.8%). The gross margin improved to 27.4% [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% [1][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the same years, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 25, and 22 times [1][4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The global oral tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of USD 11.232 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.57%, and expected to reach USD 25.148 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.32% from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The North American market is expected to reach USD 8.775 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 58.30%, and projected to grow to USD 19.449 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.01% [1] - The European market is projected to reach USD 2.415 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 56.12%, and expected to grow to USD 5.608 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 23.45% [1] - The top three companies in the oral tobacco retail market in 2024 are Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group, holding market shares of 41.1%, 24.6%, and 13.8% respectively, totaling 79.5% of the market [1] Summary by Sections Market Growth - The oral tobacco market is expected to see significant growth in both established and emerging markets, with North America and Europe leading in growth rates [1] - Emerging markets in Asia and Africa are in the early stages but are anticipated to realize their market potential rapidly as the oral tobacco market develops [1] Company Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN nicotine pouch sales are projected to reach 644 million boxes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.93%, with U.S. sales at 581 million boxes, up 51.49% [2] - British American Tobacco's oral tobacco sales are expected to reach 8.3 billion pouches in 2024, with U.S. sales significantly increasing by 234% [2] Regulatory Developments - The FDA has authorized the sale of 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, which are expected to catalyze market growth due to their lower harmful component levels compared to traditional tobacco products [3] - The approval of flavored products by the FDA is anticipated to further enhance market growth and expand the overall market potential [3] Industry Supply Chain - Jincheng Pharmaceutical is positioned as a key supplier in the nicotine market, with an increase in production capacity to 200 tons per year, which is expected to positively impact sales and market positioning [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies within the oral tobacco supply chain, including Jincheng Pharmaceutical and others in the vaping and tobacco supply sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 10.32 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.8% to HKD 706 million [1][2] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products and cigarette exports, while the net profit increase is attributed to improved profitability in cigarette and tobacco leaf exports, alongside a significant reduction in financing costs by 28% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, reflecting a 27% increase [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Revenue increased by 23.5% to HKD 8.4 billion, with an import volume of 97,900 tons (+2.5%) and an average import price of HKD 85,800 per ton (+20.5%). The gross margin decreased to 8.2% due to cost increases outpacing sales price increases [1] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue rose by 25.9% to HKD 1.16 billion, with export volume of 38,500 tons (+12.7%) and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton (+11.7%). The gross margin improved to 5.5% [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue slightly increased by 0.8% to HKD 550 million, with export volume declining by 7.9% to 1.019 billion sticks, while the average export price rose by 9.4% to HKD 0.54 per stick. The gross margin improved to 25.7% [2] - New Tobacco Exports: Revenue fell by 66.5% to HKD 15 million, with export volume down by 65.4% to 81 million sticks, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes [3] - Brazilian Operations: Revenue decreased by 50.3% to HKD 195 million, with export volume down by 34.8% to 7,900 tons, affected by extreme weather and product mix changes [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% [1][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the same years, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [1][4]