央视网消息：10月14日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。 国家发展改革委党组成员、国家粮食和储备局局长刘焕鑫介绍"十四五"时期粮食流通改革发展成效。 国家发展改革委党组成员、国家粮食和储备局局长刘焕鑫介绍，粮食市场供应充足、运行总体稳定。5 年来，全国粮食年产量稳定在1.3万亿斤以上，2024年首次迈上1.4万亿斤新台阶。人均粮食占有量比"十 三五"期末增加25公斤，达到500公斤，高于国际公认的人均400公斤粮食安全线，做到了谷物基本自 给、口粮绝对安全。把粮食收购摆在突出位置，多措并举畅通农民售粮渠道，持续优化为农为企服务， 年均粮食收购量在4亿吨以上。粮食库存充裕、市场平稳，中国人的饭碗端得更牢、更有成色。 ...

新华财经北京10月14日电 国家发展改革委党组成员、国家粮食和储备局局长刘焕鑫14日在国新办新闻 发布会上表示，5年来，全国粮食年产量稳定在1.3万亿斤以上，2024年首次迈上1.4万亿斤新台阶，人均 粮食占有量比"十三五"期末增加25公斤，达到500公斤，高于国际公认的人均400公斤粮食安全线，做到 了谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全。我国把粮食收购摆在突出位置，多措并举畅通农民售粮渠道，持续优 化为农为企服务，年均粮食收购量在4亿吨以上。粮食库存充裕、市场平稳，中国人的饭碗端得更牢、 更有成色。 "从产业发展看，深入实施优质粮食工程，产业强、供给优，2024年全国粮食企业工业总产值超过4万亿 元。"刘焕鑫说，以中国粮食交易大会和区域性粮食经贸洽谈活动为载体，粮食产销衔接更加顺畅。粮 食产业技术创新加快推进，特色产业集群、知名品牌、优质产品竞相涌现，粮食这个传统产业焕发出了 新的生机和活力。从应急保障看，由粮食应急储运、加工企业和应急配送中心、供应网点构成的粮食应 急保障体系进一步健全，在应对重大突发事件中发挥了重要作用、经受住了现实考验。 他介绍，"十四五"期间我国管粮管储方式实现重大转变，粮食流通进入了全面依 ...

Core Points - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025), China's average annual grain purchase volume is expected to exceed 400 million tons [1] - The national grain security has been effectively guaranteed, with stable market supply and overall smooth operation [1] - China's annual grain production has remained stable at over 1.3 trillion jin (approximately 650 million tons), with a projected increase to 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) in 2024 [1] - Per capita grain availability has increased by 25 kg compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," reaching 500 kg, surpassing the internationally recognized safety line of 400 kg [1] - The country has prioritized grain purchases, optimizing channels for farmers to sell grain and ensuring a stable market [1] Grain Purchase and Market Dynamics - Market-oriented purchases now account for over 90% of total grain purchases, enhancing circulation and market vitality [2] - The grain reserve system has been further improved, with enhanced management of grain purchasing and storage, significantly boosting grain circulation capabilities [2] - The management of grain storage has undergone major transformations, entering a new phase of comprehensive legal governance and information-based supervision [2] Global Contribution - China, with only 9% of the world's arable land and 6% of freshwater resources, supports nearly one-fifth of the global population, contributing significantly to global food security [2] - The country is deepening international cooperation in the agricultural sector, playing an important role in promoting global food development and maintaining food security [2]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Grain and Material Reserve Administration have reported on the improvements in China's grain emergency guarantee system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1 - The grain emergency guarantee system in China has been further improved, consisting of emergency storage and transportation, processing enterprises, emergency distribution centers, and supply points [1] - This system has played a significant role in responding to major emergencies [1]

Report Summary 1. Core Views - China takes a solid step in extraterritorial jurisdiction, with the Ministry of Commerce announcing export controls on relevant rare earth items and technologies, and adding 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. It also implements export controls on items like superhard materials, some rare earth equipment and raw materials, some medium and heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjust the technical requirements for new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027. The pure - electric driving range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is adjusted from 43 kilometers to no less than 100 kilometers [2]. - The consumer market shows good growth during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year. Domestic tourism spending reaches 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increases by 4.5% year - on - year, with commodity consumption and service consumption increasing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [2]. - With the continuous advancement of environmental protection production restrictions, most steel mills' sintering machine production restriction ratio increases from 30% to 40% - 50%. Some steel mills' existing iron ore inventories may not last until the end of the production restriction on the 20th. If transportation restrictions continue, raw material supply shortages may lead to blast furnace shutdowns or reduced production loads, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission formulates the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026. The total cotton import tariff quota in 2026 is 894,000 tons, with 33% being state - trading quotas. The total grain import tariff quotas are 963,600 tons for wheat (90% state - trading quotas) and 720,000 tons for corn (60% state - trading quotas) [3]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, coking coal, live pigs, Shanghai copper, and crude oil [4]. - Night - session performance: The report presents the night - session price changes and position - increasing ratios of commodity futures main contracts [4]. - Capital proportion of each commodity plate: Non - metallic building materials account for 2.61%, precious metals 31.86%, oilseeds 10.16%, soft commodities 2.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.98%, coal - coking - steel - ore 12.52%, energy 2.93%, chemicals 11.80%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.48% [5]. - Plate positions: The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6]. 3.2 Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.32 | 1.32 | 17.37 | | | SSE 50 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 12.51 | | | CSI 300 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 19.68 | | | CSI 500 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 31.84 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.28 | 0.70 | | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.29 | - 0.38 | 33.36 | | | German DAX | 0.06 | 3.06 | 23.62 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.77 | 8.12 | 21.77 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.41 | 1.70 | 16.35 | | | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.15 | 0.19 | - 0.81 | | Fixed - Income | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.07 | 0.09 | - 0.76 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.02 | - 0.56 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI Crude Oil | - 0.92, - 1.68 | - 0.42, - 1.58 | 0.88, - 14.49 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.60 | 3.06 | 51.51 | | | LME Copper | 1.01 | 4.67 | 22.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.92 | 2.92 | 33.88 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.56 | 1.62 | - 8.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.12 | - 6.05 | [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and investment prospects in China's grain industry from 2025 to 2031, focusing on the price fluctuations of rice, particularly japonica rice, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for japonica rice is projected to be 4021 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.62% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.26% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for japonica rice was 4046 yuan per ton in mid-September 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to have significant implications for global food prices, potentially leading to inflation in food costs due to increased capital flow into commodity markets [1][2][9]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking its first substantial easing since 2025, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased investment in commodities, including food [1][2]. - The logic behind the rate cut suggests that lower returns on dollar assets will drive international capital towards commodities, causing prices of staple foods like wheat, corn, and rice to rise irrationally [2][9]. Group 2: Relationship Between Energy and Food Prices - Food prices are closely linked to energy costs; rising energy prices increase fertilizer and transportation costs, which ultimately contribute to higher food prices [3]. - Historical food price crises have often been driven by a combination of financial factors and rising energy prices, as seen in the 2008 global food crisis [4]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - Current geopolitical tensions and export instability from key regions, such as the Black Sea, combined with India's rice export restrictions, have created a tight market for food [5][6]. - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as exacerbating the situation, potentially leading to a surge in global food prices [6][9]. Group 4: China's Food Security - China has a robust food security system, being the largest rice producer globally, accounting for about one-third of the world's production [11][12]. - China's grain reserve system is recognized as the largest in the world, allowing it to stabilize domestic prices even amid global market fluctuations [13]. - The country maintains a high self-sufficiency rate in staple grains, with rice and wheat self-sufficiency rates consistently above 95% [14]. Group 5: Potential Domestic Impacts - While China's food supply is secure, global price increases may still lead to indirect pressures on domestic markets, such as rising feed costs affecting livestock prices [15][22]. - The government must remain vigilant as global food price increases could stimulate domestic speculation and push up prices of related products [15][22]. Group 6: Strategic Considerations - China's food security strategy emphasizes not only ensuring staple food availability but also diversifying import channels to mitigate risks from specific countries [18]. - The country aims to modernize agriculture to enhance productivity and reduce vulnerability to climate fluctuations, which have been increasingly disruptive [19][16].

Group 1 - The average price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice in Japan has reached 4,275 yen (approximately 205.5 RMB), marking a continuous increase for three weeks and nearing historical highs [1] - The price increased by 120 yen (about 5.8 RMB) from the previous week, remaining above 4,000 yen (approximately 192 RMB) for two consecutive weeks [1] - The rise in rice prices is attributed to the introduction of relatively expensive new rice and a decrease in the supply of affordable government reserve rice [1] Group 2 - Since the summer of 2024, rice prices in Japan have been on the rise due to extreme high temperatures leading to poor harvests [2] - A previous warning about the increased likelihood of earthquakes in the eastern Pacific region led to public panic buying, resulting in a temporary "rice shortage" [2] - Although the new rice has alleviated the "rice shortage," prices remain high [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint enforcement actions and discussions among Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei aim to enhance food safety and regulatory standards in the region, ensuring fair and effective enforcement of food regulations [1][4]. Group 1: Joint Enforcement Actions - A joint enforcement inspection was conducted in Qinhuangdao, focusing on food enterprises and storage facilities to ensure compliance with food safety regulations [3]. - The enforcement personnel identified and corrected various issues during the inspections, which helped to standardize market order and improve enforcement capabilities [3]. Group 2: Expert Discussions - The seminar brought together legal experts and frontline enforcement personnel to discuss the criteria for administrative penalties in food regulation, aiming to unify enforcement standards across the three regions [2]. - Suggestions made during the seminar included optimizing enforcement procedures, refining penalty standards, and standardizing the exercise of discretionary power [2]. Group 3: Strengthening Collaboration - The activities in Qinhuangdao represent a practical step towards deepening the collaborative enforcement mechanism among the three regions, enhancing communication and cooperation in food regulation [4]. - The unified enforcement standards established during this initiative are expected to reduce discrepancies in enforcement and improve overall regulatory effectiveness [4].

Core Insights - The average market price of medium-grain japonica rice in China for August 2025 is 5.82 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram from July 2025, which represents a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [1] - The year-on-year decline in the price is 0.6%, indicating a slight decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - The reduction in the month-on-month decline rate is 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization trend in the price movement [1] Price Trends - The current price of medium-grain japonica rice is 5.82 yuan/kg, reflecting a minor decrease from the previous month [1] - The month-on-month price change is a decline of 0.1%, while the year-on-year change shows a decrease of 0.6% [1] - The decline rate has reduced by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1]