Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, or go long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically [4]. - The short - term bond market trend is mainly volatile, and in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and the expectation of continued loose funds, the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and go long on dips [7]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [9]. - For various metals and non - metals, the price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, trade policies, and cost. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different situations, such as being cautious about going long on copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and waiting for opportunities to short nickel, tin, etc. [11][12][16] - For energy and chemical products, the current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies. For other products like methanol, urea, etc., different trading strategies are given based on their supply - demand situations [40][41] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand and price trends of different products, such as being cautious about going long on pigs and eggs, and paying attention to the cost and supply - demand situation of soybean meal [51][52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro news includes disputes between China and the US on trade, the recovery of China's official manufacturing PMI in May, and Trump's tariff policy [2]. - The financing amount decreased by 1.129 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 6.00bp to 1.4710%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 1.23bp to 3.0414%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.90bp to 1.6762% [3]. - The trading logic is that after the Trump tariff policy disturbance, domestic policies have stabilized the economy and the stock market, and the risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and go long on IC or IM futures opportunistically [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the TL main contract rose 0.56%, the T main contract rose 0.21%, the TF main contract rose 0.14%, and the TS main contract rose 0.04% [5]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the production and new order indexes increased. Trump's tariff increase on steel and aluminum was opposed, and the US manufacturing data was weak [5][6]. - The central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan [6]. - The short - term bond market trend is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and go long on dips [7]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.70% to 771.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 8218.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.47% to 3413.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.54% to 34.88 US dollars/ounce [8]. - The US economic data was weaker than expected, and the market's expectation of the Fed's marginal easing monetary policy increased. The Fed's monetary policy stance was dovish [8]. - It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 777 - 836 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 8342 - 8733 yuan/kilogram [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices rose slightly and then fell. The LME copper fell 1.22% to 9497 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77600 yuan/ton. During the Dragon Boat Festival, Trump's threat to raise steel and aluminum tariffs led to a rise in US copper [11]. - The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.2 million tons last week. The spot import loss of copper increased, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [11]. - The supply of copper raw materials is relatively tight, but the supply tension has been marginally alleviated. The consumption resilience has weakened, and it is expected that the copper price will face greater resistance to rise. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract this week is 76500 - 79000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M is 9350 - 9700 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. The Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 0.42%, and the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to 2448 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline. The supply was stable, and the demand showed a slight improvement [12]. - The domestic commodity atmosphere is bearish, and the official manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 19800 - 20400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M is 2380 - 2520 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - Last week, zinc prices rose and then fell. The Shanghai zinc index fell 1.29% to 22118 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 58.5 to 2658 US dollars/ton [13]. - The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. The terminal consumption is weak, and the zinc price has a large downward risk [13][14]. Lead - Last week, lead prices continued to decline. The Shanghai lead index fell 0.80% to 16611 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 34 to 1953.5 US dollars/ton [15]. - The downstream lead - acid battery enterprises promoted sales by reducing prices, and the terminal procurement was weak. The supply of primary lead increased, and the production of recycled lead decreased. The lead price may have more downward space [15]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The market rumor of a large - scale relaxation of nickel ore quotas led to concerns about oversupply [16]. - The production of refined nickel remained high, and the demand was weak. The cost provided some support in the short - term, but the demand was the main contradiction. It is not recommended to short on the decline, and it is advisable to short on rallies [16]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fell sharply due to the resumption of production in the Wa State tin mine and the expectation of supply recovery in the second half of the year [17]. - The supply is expected to turn loose, and the demand is weak. The tin price center may move down. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 28000 - 31000 US dollars/ton [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium fell 2.61% this week. The fundamentals are weak, and the downstream replenishment is weak. The supply is slow to clear, and the cost support is weak. The disk is expected to run weakly. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract is 59100 - 60500 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - On May 30, the alumina index fell 0.03% to 2957 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the import window was open [19]. - The alumina production capacity is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost. It is recommended to go short on rallies lightly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12685 yuan/ton on Monday, a decrease of 0.04%. The spot price was under pressure, and the market was in a difficult situation. The 304 stainless steel market is expected to continue the weak downward trend in the short - term [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% [22]. - The pre - holiday commodity market was poor, and the finished product prices were in a weak shock trend. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the supply decreased. The hot - rolled coil supply and demand increased, and the inventory continued to decline [23]. - The current market has entered the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand for steel is weakening. The tariff policy is unstable, and the long - term demand for steel in China still faces great pressure [23]. Iron Ore - The iron ore main contract (I2509) closed at 702.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71%. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, the demand for molten iron decreased, and the inventory continued to decline [24]. - As the molten iron output peaks and the downstream demand is expected to decline, the iron ore price is under pressure and may run weakly in a shock [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass was weak, and the production enterprises reduced inventory slightly. The medium - term glass price is expected to run weakly due to the lack of significant improvement in the real estate market [25][26]. - The spot price of soda ash was stable, and the supply decreased due to summer maintenance. The demand is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is large. The soda ash price is expected to run weakly [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The manganese silicon main contract continued to decline, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell and then rebounded slightly. The prices of both decreased significantly this week [27][28]. - The decline is due to factors such as the overall weakness of commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side based on "low valuation" [29][30][32]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures main contract continued to decline. The price is in a downward trend, and it is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips blindly [33]. - The root cause is the over - capacity in the industry and the difficulty of capacity clearance. The supply is still slightly more than the demand, and the price may continue to decline [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and the Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [37]. - The bulls believe in the production - reduction expectation, while the bears think the demand is weak. The operating rate of tire enterprises is different, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly [38]. - It is recommended to follow the trend, take a neutral or bearish view, and operate in the short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [39]. Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures rose 3.70%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.91%, and INE crude oil futures fell 3.31%. The Chinese crude oil inventory increased, and the refined oil inventory decreased [40]. - The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40]. Methanol - The 09 contract of methanol fell, and the spot price rose. The domestic supply will increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread [41]. Urea - The 09 contract of urea fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is mediocre. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. PVC - The PVC09 contract rose, and the cost was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell, and the supply and demand were in a de - stocking stage. The terminal export was strong, but there is a risk of valuation correction [44]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell, and the supply was in the maintenance season. The demand was stable, and the PTA will continue to de - stock. The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [45]. p - Xylene - The PX09 contract fell, and the PX load increased. The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price may maintain a shock trend. The supply may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June. The supply will increase significantly, and the demand will decline seasonally [48]. Agricultural Products Pigs - The pig price fluctuated during the holiday. The short - term spot performance is weak, but the space for further decline is limited. It is recommended not to go long and wait for opportunities to short on rallies [51]. Eggs - The egg price was stable during the holiday, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to decline this week. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell during the holiday, and the domestic soybean meal price was stable. The soybean and soybean meal are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost and supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [53][54][55]. Oils and Fats - The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in May, and the export increased. The Indonesian palm oil production and consumption increased, and the inventory decreased. The palm oil price has some support in the short - term but is under pressure in the medium - term. The US soybean oil price fell. The oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [56][57][58]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell, and the international sugar supply may be less tight. The domestic sugar price may weaken in the future [59]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated slightly. The downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly. The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff policies, domestic and overseas monetary policies, and trade negotiations. Different asset classes show various trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. In the bond market, it is advisable to be cautious on the long - end and focus on the short - end. In the commodity market, different strategies are proposed for each commodity based on their fundamentals [2][4][6]. Summary by Category Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.65%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.36%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 129.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.49 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: The National Development and Reform Commission is improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will launch high - quality projects with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan this year. The Financial Regulatory Administration has established 74 private equity investment funds to support investment in science and technology innovation enterprises. The UK and the US have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms [2]. - **Funding**: The margin trading balance increased by 7.22 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 11.80bp to 1.5390%. The 3 - year corporate bond AA - level interest rate decreased by 2.67bp to 3.0673%, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate decreased by 1.28bp to 1.6330%, and the credit spread decreased by 1.39bp to 143bp [2]. - **PE, PB, Dividend Yield, and Futures Basis Ratio**: PE of CSI 300 is 12.45, etc.; PB of CSI 300 is 1.30, etc.; dividend yield of CSI 300 is 3.52%, etc.; futures basis ratio of IF, IC, IM, and IH shows different values [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts rose 0.26%, 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.05% respectively [5]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission supports private enterprises to participate in major projects. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged on May 7, and the Bank of England cut the interest rate on May 8 [5][6]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 158.6 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Thursday, with a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious on the long - end as the long - end interest rate has priced in the interest rate cut expectation. The short - end is more cost - effective. Pay attention to the tariff negotiation process and economic data [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold fell 1.81% to 786.42 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.12% to 8154.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.41% to 3319.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.01% to 32.62 US dollars/ounce [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the UK, and Germany is also working on resolving trade disputes. Overseas trade risks are released, which is a short - term negative factor for gold prices. The US labor market data is still resilient [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait for price corrections to go long on gold. Be cautious on silver and consider short - term shorting or waiting [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper rose 0.73% to 9474 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The copper raw material is in short supply, and the inventory is declining. However, due to inflation expectations and macro uncertainties, copper prices face adjustment pressure [10]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose 1.18% to 2408 US dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 19570 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is under pressure due to tariff policies and weak manufacturing, but inventory reduction provides short - term support [11]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.22% to 22036 yuan/ton. Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc prices may decline further [12]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead index rose 0.50% to 16774 yuan/ton. Lead prices may oscillate in a range in the medium term and show a weak short - term trend [13]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel rose 0.29% to 124000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.35% to 15575 US dollars/ton. The supply of nickel exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin rose 0.10% to 263090 yuan/ton. The supply of tin may turn loose in the future, and tin prices may decline [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The MMLC index fell 0.76%. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has stopped increasing. Pay attention to market changes [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose 3.33% to 2793 yuan/ton. Due to uncertainties in production capacity, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.04% to 12705 yuan/ton. The market is in a game between policies and fundamentals, and the price may oscillate [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The rebar main contract fell 1.48% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.80% to 3191 yuan/ton. The traditional peak season is over, and the demand for steel products is weakening, and the price may oscillate weakly [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract fell 2.05% to 693.50 yuan/ton. The supply has slightly decreased, and the demand may peak and decline. The price may be weak [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices may be weak as the inventory has increased. Soda ash supply is high, and the price may also be weak [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon rose 2.86% to 5758 yuan/ton, and ferrosilicon rose 0.77% to 5472 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see as both are in a downward trend [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon rose 0.30% to 8315 yuan/ton. It is in a supply - surplus situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are oscillating. Thailand may delay rubber tapping, which is a potential positive factor. The demand is in a seasonal off - season. It is recommended to trade with a neutral strategy [35][36][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI crude oil rose 4.02% to 60.28 US dollars, Brent crude oil rose 3.56% to 63.12 US dollars, and INE crude oil fell 1.54% to 461 yuan. It is recommended to take profits on dips and consider short - term long positions [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The 09 - contract of methanol fell 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go short [42]. - **Urea**: The 09 - contract of urea fell 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point to go long [43]. - **Styrene**: The 06 - contract of styrene fell 105 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44]. - **PVC**: The 09 - contract of PVC fell 37 yuan to 4839 yuan. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may oscillate weakly [45][46]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The 09 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 23 yuan to 4222 yuan. The industry is in a de - stocking stage, but there are risks in the medium term. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [47]. - **PTA**: The 09 - contract of PTA rose 80 yuan to 4546 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The short - term valuation has support [48]. - **Para - xylene**: The 09 - contract of para - xylene rose 116 yuan to 6404 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the short - term valuation has support, but the price increase is limited by crude oil [49][50]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price may oscillate as the supply is increasing and the demand is in the off - season [51]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price may oscillate weakly as the supply is stable and the demand is declining [52]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds and wait and see in the short term [54]. - **Egg**: The egg price was stable or declined. It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply is high [55]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean rose slightly. The future soybean supply is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal price may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 spread [56][57]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil export increased, and the production also increased. The oil price may decline due to crude oil and production factors, but there may be support in the medium term [58][59]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic sugar market has good sales, but the price may decline as the international price drops [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to trade negotiations and inventory changes [62][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Trump's tariff policy has led to significant fluctuations in overseas stock markets, suppressing market risk appetite. However, domestic monetary policy tools have sufficient room for adjustment, and institutions such as Central Huijin have increased their holdings of ETFs to stabilize the market. Policy encourages long - term capital to enter the market. [2][4] - The economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter due to tariffs. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. [6] - There are differences between the net long positions of foreign gold management funds and the holdings of gold ETFs, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - The prices of various metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and tariffs, showing different trends. [10][11][40] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of major indexes, with a decline in trading volume. Macro news includes national measures to stabilize the stock market and real estate, and Trump - related tariff and interest - rate remarks. The financing amount decreased, and the overnight Shibor rate increased. [2] - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, along with the basis ratios of stock index futures. [3] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, overseas stock market fluctuations suppress risk appetite. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" after the tariff impact weakens. The strategy is to buy IM long - positions on dips. [4] Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL and T rose, while TF and TS fell. Fiscal revenue data shows a decline in tax revenue and an increase in non - tax revenue. Trump called for the Fed to lower interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection. [5][6] - Economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy signals from the end - of - April meeting and economic data. [6] Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. Trump expressed confidence in a tariff agreement, and the VIX index declined. The net long positions of foreign gold management funds decreased, while the holdings of global gold ETFs increased significantly. There is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - It is expected that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance in May. It is recommended to hold existing gold long - positions, and the cost - effectiveness of opening new long - positions is low. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see. [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated slightly higher. Exchange inventories decreased, and the spot import was slightly in deficit. The LME market shifted from premium to discount. The scrap copper supply was tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased. Trump's statement and the approaching Politburo meeting may bring positive sentiment. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. [10] Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the spot premium increased. The demand for photovoltaic - related aluminum is strong. The impact of tariffs is limited, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to be supported by the decline in inventory, with the possibility of a wider spread between months. [11] Zinc - Last week, zinc prices continued to decline. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the basis and spread changed. The supply is expected to be loose, and downstream procurement is expected to weaken. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there is a risk of further decline in the medium - term. [12][13] Lead - Last week, lead prices rebounded after a decline. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the basis and spread strengthened slightly. The supply is generally loose, and the demand is stable. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, they are expected to fluctuate in a range. [14] Nickel - Last week, nickel prices recovered due to the alleviation of tariff concerns. The supply is expected to increase, the demand for high - priced nickel is limited, and the cost support may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. [15] Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand has improved but its sustainability is uncertain. The inventory has decreased. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. [16] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The impact of tariffs has faded, and the price has entered the bottom - cost area. Production has decreased, and inventory accumulation has slowed. The supply and demand may weaken, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. [18] Alumina - The alumina index fell. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis was positive, and the overseas price was stable. The supply is still in surplus, but there are more production cuts recently. It is recommended to wait and see. [19] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price was stable, and the basis increased. The raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The sales were slow, and the price decline was limited by cost inversion. [20] Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions increased. The spot price also decreased. The "tariff issue" has a great impact on the overall commodity price, and the demand for steel is affected. The supply and demand of steel have different trends, and the inventory is decreasing. The market shows a pattern of "strong reality, weak expectation". [22][23] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased. The overseas mine shipments were stable, the arrival volume increased, the demand may weaken, and the inventory decreased. In the short - term, it will wait for consolidation, and in the later stage, there is downward pressure on the price. [24] Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, the sales were weak, and the inventory decline slowed. The spot price of soda ash was stable, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass provides some support, and it is expected to run weakly. [25][26] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the price of ferrosilicon also decreased. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore may continue to decline, and there is a risk of further price decline. For ferrosilicon, the production is decreasing, but the demand may also weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [27][28][29] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon accelerated its decline. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. Downstream industries have over - supply, and the production of industrial silicon is still expanding. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The global financial market is volatile, and the decline in rubber prices has released most of the risks. The bulls expect price increases due to production - cut expectations, while the bears are bearish due to weak demand. The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. [36][37][38] Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures increased. European oil product inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in refined oil inventories. It is believed that the oil price has bottomed out, and investors are advised to take profits on dips and wait for a turning point. [40][41][42] Methanol - The 09 - contract price of methanol increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and the PP - 3MA spread. [43] Urea - The 09 - contract price of urea increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply will remain high, and the demand will be strong. The inventory is expected to decrease, and it is suitable to go long on dips, with a positive - spread strategy for the 9 - 1 spread. [44] Styrene - The price of the 06 - contract of styrene increased, while the spot price decreased. The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rallies. [45] PVC - The price of the PVC09 contract decreased slightly. The cost is stable, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, the valuation center will continue to decline. [46][47] Ethylene Glycol - The price of the EG09 contract increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory is decreasing, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [48] PTA - The price of the PTA09 contract increased, and the spot price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. [49] p - Xylene - The price of the PX09 contract increased, and the CFR price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see. [50][51] Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE decreased. The supply will increase in the second quarter, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term. [52] Polypropylene (PP) - The price of PP increased slightly. The cost is supported, the supply will increase, and the demand will decline seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price mainly declined over the weekend. The terminal demand is limited, and the price may decline in the north and remain stable in the south. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds. [55] Eggs - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is mostly sufficient, and the demand is average. The price may rise slightly and then stabilize, with a risk of decline later. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean meal price increased locally over the weekend, with a trend of inventory accumulation in the future. The开机率 is expected to increase. The price of U.S. soybeans is affected by weather and tariffs. The cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise steadily, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in a range. [57][58] Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The price of crude oil has an impact on the valuation of oils and fats. The supply of oils and fats is increasing seasonally, and there is a risk of price decline. If the macro - economy stabilizes, there may be support. [59][60] Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is relatively resistant to decline. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline if the weather improves. [61][62] Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price increased slightly, and the basis was positive. The operating rate of spinning and weaving mills decreased, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price trend depends on downstream consumption. [63][64]