大摩又认为，在供应链转移与地缘政治动态下，亚洲区域内需求的韧性存在上行风险，而全球货柜航运 业的持续下行周期则构成下行风险。若中日贸易显著恶化，海丰国际对日本航线相对较高的曝险可能带 来风险。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，予海丰国际(01308)目标价26.4港元，评级为"与大市同 步"。海丰国际发布初步业绩，预计去年净利润为12亿至12.3亿美元(市场共识为11.9亿美元)，同比增 16%至18.9%。认为业绩略微超越市场共识，但预期市场对去年的盈利反应有限。 ...

摩根士丹利发表研报指，海丰国际发布初步业绩，预计去年净利润为12亿至12.3亿美元(市场共识为11.9 亿美元)，按年增16%至18.9%。认为业绩略微超越市场共识，但预期市场对去年的盈利反应有限。大摩 又认为，在供应链转移与地缘政治动态下，亚洲区域内需求的韧性存在上行风险，而全球货柜航运业的 持续下行周期则构成下行风险。若中日贸易显著恶化，海丰国际对日本航线相对较高的曝险可能带来风 险。大摩予海丰国际目标价26.4港元，评级"与大市同步"。 ...

消息面上，1月27日，海丰国际发布公告，预期截至2025年12月31日止年度的本公司股东应占未经审核 利润约为12亿美元至12.3亿美元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度增加约16.0%至18.9%。截至2025年12月 31日止年度，集装箱运量约为3.85百万个标准箱，较上一个年度增加约7.8%，而平均运费(不包括互换 舱位费收入)约为753.0美元/标准箱，较上一个年度增加约4.4%。 海丰国际(01308)盈喜后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.15%，报29.14港元，成交额4523.28万港元。 本公司认为，该上升的原因主要归因于亚洲市场稳定扩展带动本集团集装箱运量有所增加及本集团定位 为优质服务供应商致使运费上升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indian government will significantly reduce tariffs on EU imports, which is expected to save about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean imports, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - The increase in US core capital goods orders in November exceeded expectations, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] - The short - term upward space of the bond market is limited, but there may be room for compression of the long - term spread. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [4][5] - The precious metals market has strong upward momentum, but the operation is difficult due to high volatility. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [6][8] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Daily News - India will gradually reduce the tariff on EU automobiles from 110% to 10% with a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year, and will completely cancel auto parts tariffs in 5 - 10 years. Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals will also be mostly removed. High tariffs on EU agricultural products will also be reduced or removed, saving about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies, judge potential financial risks, and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean cars, timber, and pharmaceuticals to 25%, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - US core capital goods orders in November increased by 0.7% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the treasury bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on South Korea had a muted impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan. The money market was loose, with DR001 down 5BP to 1.36% and DR007 up 1BP to 1.58% [4] - Since mid - January, treasury bonds have been on a recovery path, mainly driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations. At the beginning of the year, treasury futures were under pressure due to expectations of stable growth and concerns about supply. After the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market in mid - January, the impact of risk appetite on the bond market weakened. The central bank's net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF and the slower - than - expected issuance of local bonds have supported the bond market in the short term [4] - Currently, the bond market recovery is nearing its end, and the valuation is relatively neutral. Without new positive drivers, the short - term upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The long - term spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds is high, and investors can consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [5] 3.2.2. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector opened lower and moved higher, but with increased volatility and significant divergence. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.52% and 7.25% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 4.61% and 2.08% respectively [6] - In the past two weeks, the precious metals sector has shown strong performance. Domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen 17%, 65%, 32%, and 20% respectively since the beginning of the year. The short - term fluctuations of silver are affected by factors such as commodity position adjustment, Trump's "TACO" policy, and the issue of the Fed's independence [6] - Trump's "TACO" policy has little impact on the upward trend of precious metals. The issue of the Fed's independence remains complex, and the inventory shortage in the market continues. Although silver may have reached a short - term peak, the adjustment space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [7][8] 3.2.3. Container Shipping Index - On Tuesday, the main contract of the container shipping index closed slightly lower with reduced trading volume, and trading sentiment became more cautious. Before the Spring Festival, export transportation demand decreased, and shipping companies continued to cut prices to attract customers, putting pressure on the index. However, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and the potential for pre - policy - adjustment export rush may support the index. Fundamentally, the spot market faces pressure from pre - Spring Festival cargo collection and sufficient capacity supply, and the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3.3. Future Key Data - Tonight at 23:00, the US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of 89.1 and a forecast of 90.6 [13] - Tomorrow at 23:30, the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 will be released, with a previous value of 3.602 million barrels [14]

Week5: MSK开舱2450 (环比-300) , PA2400 (特价2200) , OA2500-2700美金。中枢2500美金, 折盘1750点, 消息面 Week6: MSK开舱2050 (环比-400) , PA2200附近, MSC2340, OA2400-2500美金, 中枢2320美金, 折盘1625点, | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持色变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1717.7 | 0.59% | 236.5 | 532 | | 4401 | -280 | | | EC2604 | | 1138.3 | 0.05% | 815.9 | 30781 | | 41149 | 379 | | | EC2606 | | 1412.9 | 0.99% | 541.3 | 4476 | | 5791 | 908 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has seen a nearly 5% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 13.54, with a trading volume of HKD 108 million, following new sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury Department on entities related to Iran's energy and shipping sectors [1]. Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced new sanctions targeting entities and vessels associated with Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports [1]. - The sanctions are expected to impact the shipping and management networks that assist in Iran's oil exports, potentially benefiting companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - According to Citic Securities, COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy are expected to show significant earnings elasticity due to their scalable tanker capacity [1]. - For instance, a daily increase of USD 10,000 in Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) is projected to raise annual net profits by approximately CNY 950 million for COSCO Shipping Energy [1]. - The report indicates that the current valuation of A-share shipping companies has room for improvement, with expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios reaching 13-15 times following upward adjustments in earnings forecasts [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the compliant market supply and demand improve further, it could enhance the valuations of shipping companies [1]. - There is an emphasis on recognizing the discount opportunities in related Hong Kong-listed stocks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. consumers are set to experience an unprecedented "cash rain" due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), with personal income expected to surge in Q1 2026, driven by retroactive tax measures [1] Group 1: Tax Refunds and Consumer Impact - The total personal tax refunds are projected to reach approximately $350 billion (around 2.5 trillion RMB) by the end of May, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that this year's personal tax refunds will be $40 billion to $70 billion higher than last year, with the average refund amount increasing by $550 to a historical high of about $3,500 [1] - The tax benefits primarily stem from deductions on overtime pay, tips, senior deductions, car loan interest, and increased child tax credits [4] Group 2: Economic Implications for Investors - The substantial tax refunds are expected to provide short-term support for consumer spending, particularly in the first half of the year, despite anticipated slow growth in actual consumption in early 2026 [7] - This fiscal stimulus signals a direct improvement in household balance sheets, especially for middle and high-income households [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the actual disposable personal income will grow at an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q1 2026, reversing the stagnant trend observed in the second half of 2025 [12] Group 3: Consumption Behavior and Economic Data - Historical data indicates that only about 30-40% of tax refunds are typically spent in the first quarter after receipt, with higher-income and senior beneficiaries likely to save or pay down debt rather than spend [12] - The OBBBA is expected to boost actual consumption by only 20 basis points, with an overall GDP impact of approximately 40 basis points [12] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - Despite the fiscal stimulus, trade tensions and high tariffs continue to pose challenges, with the effective tariff rate rising to 16% and expected to remain high [13][16] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience moderate GDP growth, with Morgan Stanley raising the Q4 2025 GDP growth tracking value to 2.1% [14][16] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate stance, emphasizing steady economic growth while acknowledging inflationary pressures from tariffs [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - Russia is committed to developing the Arctic region regardless of global climate changes, emphasizing its strategic importance for the country [1][3]. Group 1: Arctic Development Strategy - President Putin highlighted that approximately 70% of Russia's territory is located in high-latitude northern regions, making Arctic development crucial for national strategy [3]. - The development of the Northern Sea Route is not only vital for Russia's growth but also holds significant value for international trade and global logistics [3]. - Russia has been a leader in Arctic scientific research for decades, possessing unique core technologies and is currently enhancing its nuclear icebreaker capabilities [3]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Investment - The construction of the "Leader" nuclear icebreaker is progressing as planned, with expectations to have it operational by 2030, capable of breaking through ice several meters thick [3]. - Russia currently operates 34 diesel-powered icebreakers and 8 active nuclear icebreakers, with additional nuclear icebreakers under construction [3]. - The Russian government has initiated significant infrastructure projects along the Arctic route, focusing on developing key ports to support logistics and operations [7]. Group 3: International Interest and Cooperation - Many countries, including China, Japan, and India, have expressed interest in participating in Arctic development projects, with ongoing discussions about potential collaborations [7]. - A successful trial voyage of a Chinese container ship through the Arctic route to Europe demonstrates the potential for this route to become a major international trade pathway [8][10]. - The Chinese government emphasizes its role as a key stakeholder in Arctic affairs, advocating for cooperation and sustainable development in the region [10].

海通发展公告称，23日，公司向ADMINTERNATIONALSARL出具《履约保函》，为全资子公司 DAIAN开展租船业务提供不超267万美元担保，无反担保。截至20日，公司及子公司对DAIAN担保余额 为238.82万美元。本次担保在2025年相关授权范围内，无需再经董事会、股东会审议。截至20日，公司 及控股子公司对外担保总额30.49亿元，占最近一期经审计净资产的74.02%，无逾期担保。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinhui Group (00137) announced the cancellation of a ship sale agreement due to a failure to meet a timely delivery clause, which will not significantly impact the company's financial status or operations [1] Group 1 - The agreement for the sale of the vessel was made with a buyer for a price of $14.4 million [1] - The agreement was officially revoked on January 23, 2026, due to non-compliance with delivery terms [1] - A deposit of $1.44 million that was delivered to the escrow agent will be refunded to the buyer [1] Group 2 - The board believes that the cancellation of the vessel sale will not have any major adverse effects on the group's financial condition and operations [1]