Core Insights - Logistics is a critical link connecting sellers and consumers in the cross-border e-commerce landscape, with a focus on balancing cost control and timely delivery [1] Group 1: Postal Small Packages - Postal small packages are a cost-effective choice for novice sellers, particularly suitable for low-value items like jewelry and stationery, due to their economical shipping rates and simple customs processes [3] - However, longer shipping times and potential loss risks necessitate precise market targeting for non-time-sensitive products [3] - The cost-effectiveness of this channel has diminished in the U.S. market due to changes in customs policies, but it still holds strategic value in emerging regions like Southeast Asia and South America [3] Group 2: Dedicated Line Logistics - Dedicated line logistics offer a unique balance of efficiency and cost for mature markets such as Europe and the Middle East, with shorter shipping times compared to traditional postal channels [4] - This model is particularly suitable for sellers with stable daily order volumes, as it avoids the time fluctuations of postal small packages without incurring the high costs of international express services [4] - Sellers must evaluate whether their primary sales regions align with the dedicated line resources available [4] Group 3: International Express - International express services like DHL and FedEx provide rapid delivery, essential for high-value items needing urgent restocking or promotional products facing platform time assessments [5] - These services can achieve delivery within 72 hours, supporting high-end service commitments for luxury goods and electronics [5] - However, dimensional weight pricing can lead to hidden costs, especially for bulky items, necessitating careful cost calculations and packaging size regulations [5] Group 4: Overseas Warehousing - The overseas warehouse model allows mature sellers to achieve significant improvements by localizing inventory, converting cross-border shipping into domestic delivery [6] - This approach reduces delivery times to 3-5 days and lowers initial shipping costs through bulk transport [6] - Sellers must manage inventory turnover effectively, particularly for medium to large items, to avoid stock issues and enhance product visibility [6] Group 5: Strategic Logistics Combinations - The essence of cross-border e-commerce logistics is a dynamic balancing act, where seasonal products can leverage dedicated lines or overseas warehouses for timely advantages, while new products can test markets with postal small packages [7] - High-margin products may require international express services to maintain brand positioning [7] - Continuous optimization within the cost, time, and risk framework is essential for sellers to navigate global trade successfully [7]

跨境电商品类持续扩张，表现亮眼。公司智能家居、健康办公产品品类不断丰富，在保持升降桌主打产 品优势的同时，利用线性驱动核心技术以及品牌、渠道协同优势，实现销售收入稳中有升。公司跨境电 商模式下，新品开拓卓有成效，且性价比不断提升，高中低不同价格带满足更多用户需求，2024 年跨 境电商销售收入20.26 亿元，同比增长14.28%，电动沙发、人体工学椅等新品类逐渐起量。 本报告导读： 公司业绩符合预期，自营海外仓的规模效应有望逐步显现。 投资要点： 调整盈利预期 ，维持"增持"评级。公司业绩低于我们的预期，考虑外贸环境的不确定性，我们下调公 司2025-2026 年盈利预期，并新增2027 年盈利预期，预计公司2025-2027 年EPS 为1.15/1.29/1.61元 （2025-2026 年原1.68/1.95 元），参考行业估值水平，考虑公司前瞻布局自建海外仓的成本优势赋予的 估值溢价，给予公司2025 年16xPE，下调目标价至18.44 元，维持"增持"评级。 海外仓业务保持高增长。2024 年公司海外仓实现营收24.23 亿元，同比增长154.76%，毛利率10.37%， 同比降低2.32pct ...

Core Insights - The cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing explosive growth, leading to a restructuring of traditional logistics and warehousing models, particularly in South China [1][4] - The Greater Bay Area logistics market is projected to reach a record supply of 3.94 million square meters in 2024, with over 60% of this space being leased by leading cross-border e-commerce companies [4][5] - The logistics market in the Greater Bay Area is facing mixed influences, with external pressures from trade friction and rising tariffs, while domestic demand growth may alleviate some downward pressure [4][11] Market Supply and Demand - The total logistics stock in the Greater Bay Area is expected to increase by 20.9% year-on-year to 20.97 million square meters by the end of 2024, with Foshan surpassing Hong Kong as the largest logistics market in the region [5][10] - The logistics market has seen a significant structural change, with net absorption declining by 8.3% year-on-year to 2.688 million square meters in 2024, despite record-high new supply [9][10] - Cross-border e-commerce has become the core driving force for the logistics warehousing market in the Greater Bay Area since the end of 2019, with major players like Temu, Shein, AliExpress, and TikTokShop leasing 67.3% of the new supply in 2024 [9][10] Regional Insights - The logistics real estate market in the Greater Bay Area is divided into four sub-markets: Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing, Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou, Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen, and Hong Kong, with the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing area accounting for over 40% of the total supply in 2024 [6][10] - The logistics market is expected to continue expanding, with a projected total supply of 13.503 million square meters over the next three years, leading to a total stock of 27.093 million square meters by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [11][12] Impact of Tariffs - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on cross-border e-commerce is a significant concern, as 34.2% of China's cross-border e-commerce exports in the first half of 2024 were directed to the U.S., which could affect logistics demand and rental levels in the Greater Bay Area [12][13] - The introduction of new tariffs on small packages under $800 by the U.S. is expected to influence market dynamics, prompting some businesses to consider shifting focus to emerging markets in Europe and Southeast Asia [13][14]

据港交所4月15日披露，深圳市顺友跨境物流股份有限公司(以下简称为：顺友物流)向港交所主板递交 上市申请，中信建投（601066）国际为其独家保荐人。按2024年的收入计，该公司在中国B2C出口电商 直发物流服务市场中排名第九。 据招股书，该公司是资深的跨境电商物流服务提供商，通过该公司在中国内地的根基及跨境物流网络赋 能跨境电商平台及跨境电商卖家。该公司成立于2008年，致力于提供一站式跨境物流服务，拥有庞大的 物流网络、阶梯式定价、多种配送时间选项及广泛的可运输物品覆盖面。该公司扎根于珠江三角洲地区 (中国内地最具活力的跨境电商地区之一)，并已于中国内地广东省深圳市、广州市及东莞市，浙江省义 乌市及宁波市，及江苏省苏州市，以及中国香港及美国开展业务。 根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，约5,000名服务提供商参与中国B2C出口电商直发物流服务市场的竞争， 而按2024年的收入计，前10名参与者仅占总市场份额的21.9%。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，2024年为 特货设置的直发物流服务的市场规模佔中国B2C出口电商物流市场的约27.0%。根据同一资料来源，按 2024年为特货设置的直发物流服务的交易额计，该公司在中国 ...