格隆汇1月1日｜中信建投研报称，随着中国新质生产力的蓬勃发展，高端制造升级的过程中也将伴随着 材料体系的升级，这也势必将带动部分金属元素迎来新的需求周期。而若再结合资源的"自主可控，安 全可靠"等战略属性、资源的供给瓶颈等，相关商品的价格中枢及资本市场权益标的的估值中枢有望共 振上移。 ...

Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil recorded its largest annual decline since 2020, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global supply, with a projected oversupply expected to continue affecting prices into 2026 [2][8] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 0.9%, settling at $57.42 per barrel, marking a 20% decline for the year [2][8] - Analysts predict that oil prices will fluctuate between $50 and $70, with uncertainties surrounding supply from Venezuela and Russia providing some price support [2][8] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices experienced their largest annual increase since 2009, rising by 42% year-to-date on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by strong demand for electrification and recent supply tightness [3][9] - The surge in copper prices outperformed other industrial metals in the market [3][9] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on the last trading day of 2025 but are still on track to achieve their largest annual gains in over 40 years, attributed to strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][11] - Spot gold hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver dipped towards $71 per ounce, with significant market volatility prompting increased margin requirements for futures [5][11] - Both metals are set for their best annual performance since 1979, driven by inflation concerns and rising debt burdens in developed economies [5][11]

有色金属板块走低，美国铝业、世纪铝业跌超2%，凯撒铝业、南方铜业跌超1%。消息面上，芝商所本 周第二次提高贵金属期货保证金要求，试图为近期暴涨的贵金属市场降温，贵金属全线重挫，纽约期银 一度跌超9%，跌破71美元/盎司。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations highlighting both short-term risks and long-term bullish fundamentals [2][5]. Short-term Risks - The first risk is tax-driven selling, as investors holding substantial unrealized gains may sell before year-end to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to potential profit-taking in early January [8]. - The second risk involves a strengthening dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically exerts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like silver [9]. - The third risk is the increase in margin requirements announced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which could reduce leverage and speculative demand, although current margin levels are still lower than those seen during the 2011 silver price crash [10][11]. - The fourth risk is technical selling due to silver being perceived as "overbought," although this assessment is challenged by the underlying demand from the solar industry [12]. - The fifth risk is the potential for copper to replace silver in industrial applications, particularly in solar manufacturing, although this transition would take several years [14]. Market Dynamics - A technical pressure is anticipated from the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of their silver futures positions, coinciding with the tax-driven selling window [17]. Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for silver remains strong, supported by structural supply-demand imbalances. Current spot prices in markets like Dubai and Shanghai are significantly higher than COMEX futures prices, indicating tightness in the physical market [19]. - Investment demand is also robust, with speculative net long positions in silver being lower than in gold, suggesting room for price increases. Silver ETFs are seeing renewed inflows, indicating a shift towards silver as a monetary asset [21]. - The solar industry is projected to drive substantial increases in silver demand, with expectations of 290 million ounces in 2025 and 450 million ounces by 2030, marking a significant change in the market dynamics after years of stagnant demand [21][24].

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 2.06% on December 31, with Jiangxi Copper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.02, down 0.58% [1] - Jiangxi Copper's stock price rose by 9.29% to 54.92, with a trading volume of 1.2885 million shares and a transaction value of 7.005 billion [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net outflow of 800 million from institutional funds and 219 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.021 billion [2] - The table of individual stock fund flows indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among different companies [3] - Jiangxi Copper had a net inflow of 335 million from institutional funds, while it faced a net outflow of 180 million from speculative funds [3]

大盘收官日氛围清淡，三大指数盘中均一度跌超1%。截止收盘，恒生指数跌0.87%或224.06点，报 25630.54点，全日成交额为1189.66亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.86%，报8913.68点；恒生科技指数跌 1.12%，报5515.98点。全年来看，港股连续大涨两年，2025年恒指累涨27.77%，创2017年来最佳表现； 国指累涨22.27%；恒科指数则累涨23.45%，为成立以来表现最佳。 百度集团-SW(09888)逆市上扬。截至收盘，涨1.39%，报131.5港元，成交额11.61亿港元，贡献恒指3.55 点。华鑫证券指出，公司AI新业务持续增长，本季首次披露细节，展现出公司AI业务的自信，也有望 提振市场信心。作为较早布局AI技术的互联网传统巨头，公司的全栈AI能力（模型、应用、芯片、智 能驾驶等）可能尚未得到市场重视。 其他蓝筹股方面，舜宇光学科技(02382)涨1.16%，报65.55港元，贡献恒指0.87点；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨0.85%，报35.66港元，贡献恒指2.87点；信达生物(01801)跌3.66%，报76.25港元，拖累恒指 7.58点；新东方-S( ...

在当前宏观预期改善与产业需求强劲的共振下，锡、镍等工业金属正迎来一波由"预期、库存、需求、 成本"四重驱动的上涨行情。全球经济的复苏预期提振了工业金属的整体需求前景，而历史低位的库存 则放大了供应端的紧张情绪。更为关键的是，新能源、电子等下游产业的持续增长构成了刚性支撑，叠 加原材料与能源成本的上行压力，共同推动价格形成向上合力。 今日锡镍价走势趋势（数据来源长江有色金属网） 2025年12月31日，金属市场年末狂欢再添新主角！长江现货1#锡、1#镍同步强势反弹，两大品种携手掀 起一波凌厉的上涨行情，成为年末金属市场的"黑马"组合。在美联储宽松流动性的加持下，叠加新能 源、AI产业的爆发式需求，锡镍正开启新一轮上涨周期，年末资金的抢筹热潮更让这场狂欢热度飙 升。 产业需求精准共振：锡与镍虽应用场景不同，但共同深度绑定了当前最具爆发力的两大产业赛道。 镍：直接受益于新能源汽车年末冲量（三元电池装机环比大增）及人形机器人产业化从0到1的预期启 动，单台机器人用镍量可观。同时，印尼镍矿政策扰动持续强化供应收紧预期。镍：供应端，镍矿资源 分布不均，主要集中在印尼、菲律宾等国家。近年来，印尼的镍矿出口政策调整对全球镍供 ...

2025年12月31日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 单击此处输入文字。 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价大幅超跌反弹。 | | | | | 基本面：白银由于提保带来的下跌情绪上导致铜价同步下行。美联储议息会议纪要显示十二月降息决定并无 | | | | | 太多分歧。供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改。华东华南平水铜现货贴水 300 元和 200 元成交。伦敦结构 35 | 美金 | | | 铜 | back。注销仓单占比 26%。 | | | | | 交易策略：建议观望，等待波动率下降后机会。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.02%，收于 22565 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-330 | | 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2972.5 美元/吨。 | | | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | 交易策略：宏观氛围积极， ...

中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，供应扰动风险增加；工业硅和多晶 硅供需趋松，但多晶硅收储平台成立，供应端收缩预期升温。中短期 来看，节前资金获利了结，碳酸锂等新能源金属宽幅震荡，但供应扰 动担忧支撑逻辑未有变化，可待碳酸锂止跌后继续关注低吸做多机 会。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能 抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过 剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新审视，年度供需拐点 可能提前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价随情绪波动。 多晶硅观点：强预期VS弱现实，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：情绪有所缓和，碳酸锂震荡⾛强。 节前资金谨慎，新能源金属宽幅震荡 新能源观点：节前资⾦谨慎，新能源⾦属宽幅震荡 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 ...

"错过了上车金银的机会，或许买铜是一种补救方式。"近期，一则投资者的发帖在市场中引发共鸣。在 金银价格迭创历史新高之际，铜市已然接棒，开启"狂飙"模式，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜累 计涨超40%，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星之一。这轮铜价的强势上行，不仅带动期货市场价格 屡创新高，更传导至股市相关板块，带动产业链个股走强，全球范围内的"抢铜狂潮"就此拉开序幕。展 望2026年，多位业内人士认为，宏观环境、供需格局等因素有望支撑铜价进一步上行。（中证报） ...