Core Insights - China has discovered the world's largest tungsten mine, significantly enhancing its sustainable development prospects and attracting global attention [1][13] - Tungsten is a critical industrial resource due to its unique properties, including high hardness and melting point, making it indispensable in various sectors such as aerospace and defense [1][3][5] Group 1: Resource Significance - Countries rich in tungsten resources hold substantial influence, especially in high-tech fields, due to tungsten's strategic importance in manufacturing key components like rocket engines and munitions [3][5] - The global scarcity of tungsten resources, with only 0.001% of the earth's crust containing tungsten, has led to intense competition among nations for this vital resource [7][9] Group 2: China's Position - China is the largest tungsten reserve holder, with its reserves accounting for 57% of the global total, far exceeding Russia, the second-largest holder [14] - The discovery of significant tungsten deposits in regions like Dahutang and Zhuxi has solidified China's leadership in the global tungsten industry, with estimated values exceeding 100 billion RMB [11][14] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Developments - Despite its abundant tungsten resources, China faces challenges in deep processing technologies, leading to a high export ratio of raw materials and limited profitability for domestic companies [16][17] - In response to resource pressures, China has implemented measures to regulate tungsten mining and exports, aiming for sustainable development and increasing the export of high-value products like tungsten alloys [17][19]

Group 1 - Xanadu Mines Ltd has terminated its exclusive negotiation agreement with Zijin Mining Group due to the inability to finalize a control transaction within the agreed timeframe [1][2] - The company will restart the shareholder voting process regarding the exercise of a 25% put option, with a special meeting scheduled for June 4, 2025 [2][3] - If the put option is exercised, Xanadu can sell 19.125% of its interest in the Kharmagtai project to Zijin for $25 million, funded by a low-interest loan from Zijin [3] Group 2 - Xanadu is exploring other financing options and potential partnerships for the Kharmagtai project, while also discussing joint venture or equity financing for the Red Mountain project [4] - The company has received approval to issue up to 15% of its shares for financing as a backup plan [4] Group 3 - Almonty Industries Inc has signed a binding off-take agreement with U.S. defense contractor Tungsten Parts Wyoming, Inc. for the supply of tungsten oxide [5][6] - The agreement stipulates a minimum monthly purchase of 40 tons of tungsten oxide, which will be used for U.S. defense projects [6][7] - Almonty reported a revenue of CAD 28.8 million for the fiscal year 2024, a 28% increase from the previous year, but also a net loss of CAD 16.3 million [9][10] Group 4 - The company plans to relocate its registered office from Canada to the U.S., which has been approved by shareholders [10] - Almonty's stock price has increased approximately 285% over the past year, reaching a 52-week high of AUD 2.85 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market in China experienced significant fluctuations in 2024, with an average price increase of approximately 15% year-on-year, driven by tight supply and rising prices across the industry chain. The company Jaxin International, based in Kazakhstan, has submitted an IPO application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amid favorable market conditions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, the average price of tungsten increased by about 15% year-on-year, with black tungsten concentrate (65%) peaking at 156,600 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate (APT) exceeding 230,000 CNY/ton, marking a 13-year high [1]. - As of February 2025, black tungsten concentrate prices stabilized at 143,000 CNY/ton, while APT remained at 212,500 CNY/ton [1]. - The tight supply has led to price increases being passed down the industry chain, prompting major tungsten companies to announce price hikes [1]. Group 2: Company Profile - Jaxin International, established in 2014, focuses on developing the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan and aims to commence commercial production in the second quarter of 2025 [7][12]. - The Bakuta tungsten mine is noted for having the largest designed tungsten ore capacity globally and is the fourth largest tungsten mine by resource volume [9]. - The company plans to issue up to 125 million ordinary shares in its IPO and simultaneously issue up to 1.3176 million shares on the Astana International Exchange [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Jaxin International has not generated any revenue since its establishment, incurring cumulative losses of approximately 350 million HKD over the past three years [11][13]. - The company reported losses of 26.117 million HKD in 2021, 94.450 million HKD in 2022, and 80.129 million HKD in 2023, with a loss of 64.969 million HKD for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [11]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The Bakuta tungsten mine is crucial for alleviating long-term supply pressures in the tungsten market, especially as global demand continues to rise [26]. - China, holding over 50% of global tungsten reserves, has seen a decline in domestic production, making the development of the Bakuta mine strategically significant for both China and Kazakhstan [26].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Natural Resources issued a total control index for tungsten mining of 58,000 tons for the first batch in 2025, which is a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the first batch in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.5% and an increase in the decline rate by 4.9 percentage points [1] - The tungsten industry is expected to have limited short-term growth due to constraints from mining quotas, environmental regulations, declining ore grades, and the difficulty of bringing new projects online in the short term [1] - Downstream demand is anticipated to grow rapidly due to equipment renewal policies and the demand for photovoltaic tungsten wire, which may support an upward trend in tungsten prices [1] Group 2 - The tungsten industry is likely to undergo transformation and upgrading under the backdrop of export control policies, further strengthening the strategic attributes of tungsten resources [1]

Group 1 - The central government has not reduced its holdings in ETFs since October 2023, with Central Huijin increasing its ETF holdings to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence [1] - As of April 2025, Central Huijin's ETF holdings have shown significant net inflows, contradicting rumors that it typically sells after market rallies [1] - The A-share market is considered a key element in boosting confidence amid the trade war, reflecting the government's commitment to maintaining market stability [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2023, local government bond issuance reached a record high of 2.84 trillion yuan, with 1.4 trillion yuan allocated for debt replacement [2] - The issuance of new general bonds and special bonds has accelerated, with expectations for further increases in Q2 due to the implementation of self-examination and self-issuance trials [2] - The current high yield spread of local government bonds makes them suitable for stable institutional investors [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set the tungsten mining quota for 2025 at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 6.5% from the previous year [3] - The tightening of mining quotas, along with environmental regulations and declining ore grades, is expected to limit short-term supply in the tungsten industry [3] - Increased demand from downstream sectors, particularly in photovoltaic tungsten wire, is anticipated to support an upward trend in tungsten prices [3] Group 4 - Core companies in the commercial aerospace sector reported strong Q1 results, with Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology showing significant profit growth of 300.06% and 495.74% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The Shanghai government aims to grow the commercial aerospace industry to over 100 billion yuan by 2027, indicating strong policy support [6] - The satellite internet industry is entering a phase of growth, driven by core company performance and increasing orders [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the tungsten industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The Bakuta tungsten mine is expected to begin commercial production in Q2 2025, contributing significantly to global tungsten supply [4][6]. - The mine has favorable geological conditions and is one of the largest tungsten resources globally, with an estimated resource of 109.5 million tons containing 0.211% WO3 [3][11]. - The global tungsten supply has been declining over the past six years, and the Bakuta mine's phase two production is expected to contribute 13% to global output by 2028 [6][28]. Summary by Sections Bakuta Tungsten Mine Overview - The Bakuta tungsten mine is located in Kazakhstan and is one of the largest open-pit tungsten mines globally, with a significant resource endowment [3][11]. - The mine's estimated resources include 10.95 million tons of ore, translating to approximately 231,500 tons of WO3 [3][11]. Production Timeline - Phase one of the Bakuta project is set to start commercial production in Q2 2025, with a target capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore per year [4][20]. - Phase two is planned for Q1 2027, which will increase production capacity to 4.95 million tons per year [4][20]. Cost Advantages - The Bakuta mine benefits from lower operational costs due to its open-pit nature and favorable local conditions for land use, water, electricity, and labor compared to other major tungsten-producing countries [23][24]. - The estimated operational cash cost for 2025 is projected to be approximately RMB 463.2 million, with a unit cost of RMB 156 per ton of ore [23][24]. Global Supply Dynamics - Global tungsten production is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in 2024, but the Bakuta mine's contribution will be crucial as it ramps up production [6][28]. - The report highlights that China's tungsten production dominates the market, accounting for about 83% of global output [28]. Beneficiary Companies - Companies expected to benefit from the Bakuta tungsten mine's production include Zhangyuan Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Xiamen Tungsten, among others [7][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Natural Resources has issued a notice that the total control index for tungsten mining in the first batch of 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 6.5% compared to the same period last year [2][4] - The distribution of the 2025 mining indicators shows that Jiangxi, Hunan, and Henan provinces account for the highest proportions, with 37%, 27%, and 12% respectively, totaling 76% of the national indicators [10][12] - The supply of tungsten is expected to remain rigid due to policy constraints and resource limitations, with a significant focus on strategic resource allocation [10][12] Summary by Sections Mining Indicators - The 2025H1 tungsten mining indicator is 58,000 tons, down from 62,000 tons in 2024H1, with an annual quota of 114,000 tons [2][10] - No province has achieved a year-on-year increase in mining indicators except for Fujian, which saw a slight increase of 2 tons [10][12] - Jiangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, and Guangxi have seen significant decreases in their mining indicators, with reductions of 2,370 tons, 400 tons, 266 tons, and 240 tons respectively [10][12] Policy and Supply Dynamics - The tightening of tungsten supply is a response to the current global strategic situation, with stricter controls on the supply of strategic resources like tungsten and rare earths [10][12] - Domestic mining operations are facing challenges due to long-term depletion and rising costs, with the average cost of domestic tungsten mining now at 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton [10][12] - New mining projects are expected to contribute limited output until after 2026 due to infrastructure and cost issues [10][12] Strategic Importance and Price Outlook - Tungsten is recognized as a strategic resource in China, with the country holding 53% of global tungsten reserves and producing 82% of the world's tungsten [10][12] - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in tungsten prices due to resource depletion and increased costs, with historical price movements closely linked to global manufacturing activity [10][12] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten for potential investment opportunities [10][12]

Group 1 - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 6.45% compared to the previous year, indicating a tightening supply of tungsten resources [1][2] - The Chinese government will no longer issue total control indicators for small-scale tungsten mines starting in 2024, but companies must report their tungsten production [2] - Domestic tungsten production is expected to be around 88,500 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.77%, which accounts for about 83% of global tungsten supply [3] Group 2 - Tungsten is recognized as a strategic resource with increasing demand due to its applications in military, aerospace, and electronics, alongside a recovering manufacturing sector [4] - The domestic manufacturing PMI index improved by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5% in March, indicating a gradual recovery in demand for tungsten-related products [4] - Recommended stocks benefiting from the tungsten market dynamics include Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH) and China Tungsten High-Tech (000657.SZ) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiaxin International Resources Investment Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its third attempt after previous failures [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiaxin International is a tungsten mining company based in Kazakhstan, focusing on the development of the Bakuta tungsten mine [2] - The Bakuta tungsten mine is recognized as the world's fourth-largest tungsten mine by resource volume, with a total mineral resource of 230,000 tons and the largest designed tungsten production capacity [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Jiaxin International reported annual losses of HKD 94.45 million, HKD 80.129 million, and HKD 177 million from 2022 to 2024, accumulating over HKD 300 million in losses over three years [2] - Administrative expenses have shown a compound annual growth rate of 35.99%, with respective expenses of approximately HKD 40 million, HKD 70 million, and HKD 80 million during the same period [2] Group 3: Project Development - The Bakuta tungsten mine project has been in the exploration and development stage, with no confirmed revenue to date [2] - The project is expected to enter commercial production in the second quarter of 2025, with a targeted mining and mineral processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore for that year [3] Group 4: Shareholding Structure - The pre-listing shareholding structure of Jiaxin International includes significant stakeholders such as Jiangxi Copper (41.65%), Hengzhao International controlled by Liu Zijia (43.35%), and China Railway Construction (10%) [4]