证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-06-20 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250619：美联储全年降息或不及 2 次——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评 核心观点：6 月 FOMC 如期不降息，同时在声明中删除了更高失业率与 通胀的判断。经济预测中美联储下调了美国 GDP 增速预期，上调了失业 率与 PCE 通胀预期，判断经济前景将更加滞胀。虽然更滞胀的经济预期 并未让今年的点阵图中值发生变化，但点阵图分布明显更鹰派。发布会上 鲍威尔对经济保持信心、对通胀保持耐心，表示按兵不动是最佳策略。向 前看，相对于增长的下行风险，美联储仍然更担心通胀的上行风险与不确 定性，更晚降息更有利于确保关税带来的通胀冲击是一次性而非持续性 的；同时特朗普对美联储货币政策独立性的干预仍然存在，这或打乱、延 后美联储原有的降息进程。因此我们预期今年全年降息次数或不及 2 次。 风险提示：特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水平 时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 宏观点评 20250618："1+6"体系精准支持硬科技企业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7][16]. Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery equipment industry is expected to recover, with solid-state batteries creating growth opportunities [7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic lithium battery production expansion, as major manufacturers restart capacity [8]. - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with multiple equipment deliveries to clients in North America, Asia, and Europe [9]. - The company has seen a significant increase in high-margin consumer lithium battery equipment orders, which is expected to improve its operational performance [10]. - The company is advancing its solid-state battery initiatives, having successfully bid for its first complete line of sulfide solid-state battery equipment [11]. - The company reported a turnaround to profitability in Q1 2025, with cost reduction and efficiency measures showing initial results [12][14]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 0.6 billion, 1.3 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 96, 43, and 33 [16]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a total revenue of 2.48 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [18]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve significantly, with consumer lithium battery equipment expected to have a gross margin of approximately 26% in 2024 [10].

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证消费电子主题ETF发起联接A（014906），国泰中证消费电子主 题ETF发起联接C（014907）。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 广发证券指出，5月份制造业PMI环比上升0.5%至49.5%，高技术制造业PMI连续4个月高于荣枯线至 50.9%，显示电子、半导体等高端制造领域延续较好发展态势。半导体设备方面，近年AI等新技术推动 汽车电子、新能源、物联网等领域需求增长，成为半导体板块重要成长动力；同时中美贸易摩擦加速国 产化进程，国内晶圆制造及配套环节发展势在必行。固态电池、复合集流体等新技术兴起为锂电设备带 来增长点，2025年将成为固态电池商业化关键年，其成熟将带动设备全面更新及价值量成倍提升。 消电ETF（代码：561310）跟踪的是消费电子指数（代码：931494），该指数由中证指数有限公司编 制，从A股市场中选取涉及智能 ...

曼恩斯特分析师会议 调研日期：2025年06月17日 调研行业： 参与调研的机构：瑞民投资、善思投资、中胤信弘投资、中金、 广发证券等 / 机构调研pro小程序 DJvanbao.com 洞见研报 出品 : 机构调研pro小程序致力于为金融证券投资者提供最新最全的调研会议纪要。 来机构调研pro小程序，了解最新的：行业投资风向、热门公司关注、权威机构分析... 权威完善的信息持续更新! 更多精彩的机构调报告请移步机构调研pro小程序~ 一解投资机构行业关注度。 频判市场 | Gallia | | | --- | --- | | 11 2 12 200 2 110 | | | 1:给我们 = 影片面临官 = | | | 阿里巴巴佩尼 | | | 钢铁机之题。 8 | 图纸制图: 23 | | 20GB Millio Aller 19 | | | 海双集团 | | | 1 1 80.0 0 | 总机构建 23 | | LOGA: REGH, KETA: 1986 | | | 小麦具日 | | | 的研究次数:8 | 上机构馆:23 | | 定年代的:用者点击:我要的中:主要原因 | | | START SHILL ...

证券代码：301325 证券简称：曼恩斯特 时考虑到锂电新技术中粉体材料处理及硫化物材料对设备耐 磨损、抗腐蚀、高硬度等要求趋严，公司前瞻性提出新型陶瓷 材料改造锂电设备尤其固态/干法新技术装备的升级方案。现 在公司已搭建较完整的陶瓷科研实验室及加工产线，通过自研 的陶瓷材料配方及加工工艺，已开发有陶瓷模头、陶瓷双螺杆、 陶瓷搅拌浆、陶瓷辊等代表性产品。 此外，公司现已规划有较完善的固态电池极片制造解决方 案，针对不同材料的适配性亦有多种工艺路线选择，且在多工 序的干法设备均有订单出货。为了确保固态电解质薄层均匀性 制备要求以及尽快推动商业化落地，公司所开发的电解质薄涂 技术，干膜厚度可以控制在 1-15µm，具备较强的竞争优势。 深圳市曼恩斯特科技股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-005 | | █特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | █现场参观 | | | □其他（电话会议） | | 参与单位名称 | （以下排名不分先后） | | | 博时基金、长城基金、金鹰基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent developments in the lithium battery equipment sector, particularly focusing on the partnership between Ningde Times and Changan Automobile, and the implications for related companies like Xinyuren. Group 1: Partnership Developments - Xinyuren (688573) recently won a bid for the drying line project for the Ningde Times-Changan Times base, marking a new phase in their joint battery project [1] - The joint venture, Times Changan, was established on June 28, 2023, with Ningde Times holding 51%, Changan Automobile 19%, and Deep Blue Automobile 30% [2] - Times Changan has two production bases, one in Yibin with an investment of 6 billion yuan, and another in Guang'an with a planned investment of 5 billion yuan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 25 GWh [2] Group 2: Production Capacity and Future Plans - Changan Automobile has outlined its capacity planning, with the first phase of Times Changan targeting 25 GWh, and plans to reach a total capacity of 75 GWh by 2026 [3] - The Yibin base is the first smart, digital, and low-carbon factory for Ningde Times and Changan, producing both ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries [2] Group 3: Xinyuren's Business Performance - Xinyuren has faced challenges in the lithium battery equipment market, with a significant drop in net profit to -63.26 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 208.41% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin decreased to 20.33%, down 6.56 percentage points year-on-year, indicating intensified market competition [4] - To improve performance, Xinyuren is diversifying into solid-state battery technologies and enhancing its manufacturing capabilities through smart factories [4][5] Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The lithium battery industry is experiencing structural overcapacity, leading to increased competition and a concentration of orders among leading companies [5] - Despite the challenges, Xinyuren aims to accelerate new product commercialization and improve existing product margins as a priority for 2025 [5]

固态电池获政策大力支持，终端车企如宝马、丰田积极推进，部分已进 入路试阶段。宁德时代、青岛金王等电池厂也在搭建固态产线，中试线 预计年中逐步拉通，预示产业链加速发展。 固态电池技术路线逐步采用干法方案，生产工艺对设备提出新需求，如 高压化设备，带动相关设备盈利。干法电极制造设备（包括混合设备） 是未来明确趋势，高压致密化、电解质与极片复合及封装工艺是关键。 固态电池应用场景广泛，包括低空领域、人形机器人、新能源汽车及储 能等。低空领域因价格敏感度较低，有望率先落地，其他领域亦具潜力， 推动固态产线发展，打开市场空间。 干法制备技术在固态电池生产中至关重要，涉及纤维化、滚压、叠片及 高压致密化等环节。干法混合、电极制造、高压致密化等关键步骤提升 产线价值，解决界面结合问题，为全固态电池大规模生产提供支持。 固态电池生产设备在前、中、后道工序均有显著变化。前道工序新增纤 维化、混合等设备需求，滚压机价值量大幅提升。中道工序叠片机需求 增长，后道工序化成分容环节涉及高压化处理，设备需求增加。 Q&A 固态电池加速落地过程中设备环节的变化有哪些？ 固态电池加速落地过程中，设备环节发生了显著变化。首先，从政策层面来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery and oil service equipment sectors [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a projected total investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2][21] - The engineering machinery sector shows a mixed outlook, with a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, indicating undervalued investment opportunities [3] - The trend towards lightweight humanoid robots is accelerating, with increased application of magnesium alloys and PEEK materials, enhancing performance and efficiency [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in energy projects in the Middle East is expected to reach $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024, with oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion [2][21] - Leading companies like Jerry and Neway have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jerry's orders expected to double in 2024 [2][23] - The Middle East oil service market is projected to be worth over $100 billion, with significant growth potential for Chinese companies [2][21] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales declining by 1.48% [3] - Non-excavator machinery sales are recovering, with significant year-on-year increases in sales of road rollers and pavers [3] - The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities as export sales continue to support overall performance [3] Humanoid Robots - Lightweight design is becoming a core focus for humanoid robot manufacturers, utilizing materials like magnesium alloys and PEEK to reduce weight and improve performance [4][25] - Magnesium alloy's density is only two-thirds that of aluminum, offering advantages in strength and processing, while PEEK materials are expected to see increased application as costs decrease [26][27] - Investment opportunities in magnesium alloy die-casting and PEEK materials are highlighted, with specific companies recommended for attention [5][28] Forklifts and AI in Logistics - The integration of AI in logistics is driving the transformation towards automation, with a focus on unmanned forklifts and smart logistics solutions [6] - Key players in the forklift industry are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [6] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of major players like CATL, with significant investments in new production facilities [10][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology as a future growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent positioned to capitalize on this trend [10][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the magnesium alloy die-casting sector such as Xusheng Group and Baowu Magnesium, as well as PEEK material companies like Zhongyan Co. and Watte [5][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the successful listing of Circle, marking it as the first public stablecoin company, with its stock price increasing nearly 2.5 times since its IPO, leading to a market capitalization of approximately $23.8 billion [6][7]. - The stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with its total size increasing from $20 billion in 2020 to $246 billion by May 2025, alongside a 598% increase in trading volume [6][7]. - The report emphasizes three main growth themes: Blockchain + Fintech, New Energy + RWA (Real World Assets), and Cross-Border Payments [6][7]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include companies such as Xinjie Electric, Beite Technology, Hanwei Technology, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Hengli Hydraulic, and Nuwei Co., Ltd. [4]. Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see a cumulative demand of approximately 2 million units by 2030, currently in a critical breakthrough phase [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on Tier 1 and core component suppliers within this sector [6]. Industry Focus: Photovoltaic Equipment - The penetration rate of N-type photovoltaic technology is accelerating, enhancing the competitiveness of leading companies [17]. - The report recommends companies like Maiwei Co. and Jiejia Weichuang for their technological innovations and customer bases [17]. Industry Focus: Energy Storage - Energy storage is essential for building a new type of power grid, with favorable policies boosting industry growth [17]. - Leading companies in battery, inverter, and integration segments are highlighted as key investment opportunities [17]. Industry Focus: Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $140 billion by 2030, with a growing share from mainland China [17]. - The report suggests focusing on platform companies and domestic replacements that are expected to break through quickly [17]. Industry Focus: Automation - The market for industrial consumables is around $40 billion, expected to reach $55.7 billion by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from increased concentration and import substitution [17][18]. Industry Focus: Hydrogen Energy - Green hydrogen aligns with carbon neutrality goals, with rapid development in photovoltaic and wind energy laying the foundation for hydrogen production [17]. Industry Focus: Engineering Machinery - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with product, scale, and cost advantages in the engineering machinery sector [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery technology is emerging as the next frontier in battery innovation, driven by the limitations of liquid batteries and the increasing demand for higher energy density and safety [1][2]. Industry Overview - The solid-state battery sector is gaining traction, with significant interest from large capital investors following the introduction of new national standards for power batteries in April [2]. - Recent industry events, such as the Solid-State Battery Summit and the International Solid-State Battery Technology Conference, are expected to stimulate market interest and investment [2]. Company Analysis - **Li Yuanheng**: Recognized as a concept pioneer in solid-state battery equipment, but faces challenges with production speed and delivery. The company reported a significant loss of 1 billion in 2024 and is undergoing internal restructuring due to talent loss [3][4]. - **Xian Dao Intelligent**: A leader in traditional liquid lithium battery equipment, claims to have full solid-state production capabilities. However, it relies on imported core equipment and has faced quality issues, leading to extended order fulfillment timelines [3][4]. - **Hai Mu Xing**: The first company to deliver solid-state battery equipment and achieve commercial validation of its technology. It has a strong competitive edge with proprietary lithium metal interface treatment technology and has secured over 10 billion in orders [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The market has misjudged the capabilities of Li Yuanheng and Xian Dao Intelligent, which are currently under scrutiny for their technical and production capabilities. In contrast, Hai Mu Xing's early industrialization advantage positions it favorably despite short-term performance pressures [5]. - The solid-state battery industry is expected to follow a pattern of "equipment first, materials follow, vehicle deployment," with a predicted peak in equipment bidding between 2025 and 2026 [6]. Companies with mature production capabilities and core technology are likely to lead the upcoming industry upgrade and benefit from significant valuation premiums [6].