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4月PMI:内外开始分化
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-04-30 23:50
以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ,作者赵伟 屠强 耿佩璇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作 者: 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人: 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件: 4月30日,国家统计局公布4月PMI指数,制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%;非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点:4月新出口订单已明显下滑,但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱,但相对来看新订单指数更弱,生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%;剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落,边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标,反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化;产需对比看, 新订单指数下行至49.2%,而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近(49.8%),反映本月需求偏弱,生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征,其中新出口订单指数降幅较大,但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下,4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%,主因前期订单在"抢出口 ...
4月PMI回落至收缩区间,高技术制造业依然保持扩张
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-04-30 23:33
Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 51.5%, showing resilience against external pressures, while overall manufacturing production index falls to 49.8% [3][4] - New export orders have significantly declined by 4.3% to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on export orders [3][4] Group 2 - The April PMI for imports decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 43.4%, and the purchasing index fell by 5.5 percentage points to 46.3%, indicating cautious spending by enterprises amid uncertainties [5] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, still above the critical point, but export orders dropped by 7.6 percentage points to 42.2% [6] - The construction sector continues to expand, with the civil engineering PMI rising by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating accelerated project progress [6][7] Group 3 - The comprehensive PMI output index for April is at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates overall expansion in production activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 49.8% and 50.4%, respectively, reflecting stable operations in manufacturing firms focused on domestic sales [7]
4月PMI:经济景气度有所回落,关注增量政策落地
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 14:22
Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 recorded at 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction in economic activity[1] - The production index and new orders index were at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both declining by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The new export orders index fell to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting a significant impact from external demand constraints[9] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0%[1] - Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, all showing declines from the previous month[1] - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector remained stable at the critical point of 50%[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall production activity in manufacturing showed a slight decline, with the purchasing volume index at 46.3%, down 5.5 percentage points from last month[3] - Domestic demand has been supported by policies promoting consumption, with significant increases in the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a sales boost of over 720 billion yuan[10] - The overall price levels for raw materials and finished products have decreased, with the purchasing price index at 47.0% and the factory price index at 44.8%, both down from the previous month[16] Future Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month[22] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating expansion in the sector[20] - Risks include fluctuations in international commodity prices and geopolitical tensions that could further impact economic stability[23]
4月PMI数据点评:季节性因素叠加外部环境变化,制造业PMI降至收缩区间
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan· 2025-04-30 12:42
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]
三类行业继续保持扩张态势——4月PMI数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-04-30 12:00
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人: 陆银波(15210860866) 报告摘要 PMI 数据:制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ,前值为 50.5% 。具体分项来看: 1 ) PMI 生产指数为 49.8% ,前值为 52.6% ,回落 2.8 个百分点。 2 ) PMI 新订单指数为 49.2% ,前值为 51.8% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7% ,前值为 49.0% 。 3 ) PMI 从业人员指数为 47.9% ,前值为 48.2% 。 4 )供货商配送时间指数 为 50.2% ,前值为 50.3% 。 5 ) PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ,前值为 47.2% 。 其他行业: 1 )建筑业:建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9% ,比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 2 )服务业:服务业 商务活动指数为 50.1% ,比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3 )综合产出: 4 月,综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2% ,比上月下降 1.2 个百分点,仍高于临界点。 PMI 点评:三类行业继续 ...
PMI点评:关税冲击制造业PMI大幅回落,Q2有望小幅反弹
Huafu Securities· 2025-04-30 11:25
Economic Indicators - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped significantly by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0%, marking the lowest level since June 2023[3] - The new orders index fell sharply by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest since 2023[3] - The production index declined by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, reaching a 23-month low[3] Sector Performance - The inventory index for finished goods decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, remaining near a low of 47.7% for four consecutive months[4] - The construction PMI fell by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, but the civil engineering index rose by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating increased infrastructure investment[4] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, maintaining stability in service consumption[4] Future Outlook - The report suggests a potential slight rebound in manufacturing PMI in May and June due to expectations of a second round of export grabbing and marginal improvements in real estate supply-side confidence[5] - If export pressures increase later in the year, the central government may expand fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment[5] - The monetary policy forecast remains unchanged, with a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points in Q2 and a total reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points for the year[5]
中采PMI点评:4月PMI:内外开始分化
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-30 11:14
Group 1: PMI Overview - In April, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, down from 50.5% in March[7] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, compared to 50.8% in the previous month[7] - The new export orders index dropped significantly by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating potential pressure on future exports[2] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index declined to 49.2%, while the production index remained near the threshold at 49.8%, suggesting weak demand but relatively high production levels[2] - Internal demand showed resilience, with the domestic orders index only down 2.3 percentage points to 49.9%[2] - Despite a decline in new export orders, foreign trade cargo volume increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3%, attributed to prior "export rush" orders[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Key sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant PMI declines of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, while the consumer goods sector's PMI fell only 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in real estate, although infrastructure construction accelerated[3] - The service sector PMI experienced a minor decline of 0.2 percentage points to 50.1%, supported by strong performance in productive service industries[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty in external demand due to tariff hikes, while emphasizing the need to monitor changes in domestic demand[4] - The central political bureau meeting in April stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating potential support for domestic demand in manufacturing[4]
4月PMI数据点评:三类行业继续保持扩张态势
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-30 10:05
宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 三类行业继续保持扩张态势 ——4 月 PMI 数据点评 ❖ PMI 数据:制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%,前值为 50.5%。具体分项来看:1)PMI 生产指数 为 49.8%,前值为 52.6%,回落 2.8 个百分点。2)PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%, 前值为 51.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7%,前值为 49.0%。3) PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%,前值为 48.2%。4)供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%,前值为 50.3%。5)PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0%,前值为 47.2%。 其他行业:1)建筑业:建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%,比上月下降 1.5 个百 分点。2)服务业:服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%,比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3)综合产出:4 月,综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%,比上月下降 1.2 个百分点, 仍高于临界点。 ❖ PMI 点评:三类行业继续保持扩张态势 (一)外部环境急剧变化影响下,部分指标出现下滑 4 月,受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 ...
重要数据发布:49%
天天基金网· 2025-04-30 06:08
制造业PMI有所回落 4月制造业PMI比3月下降1.5个百分点,分项数据显示,制造业市场需求有所放缓。4月,新出口订单指 数为44.7%,较3月下降4.3个百分点;新订单指数为49.2%,较3月下降2.6个百分点。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示,国外需求短期收紧拖累了我国制造业整体市场需求。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示,从全球范围看,受贸易环境不确定性增大影响,主 要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间,美国供应管理协会发布的3月份美国制造业PMI为49.0%,有 关机构发布的4月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业PMI初值均低于临界点。 制造业PMI中生产指数和价格指数也有所下降。4月,制造业生产指数为49.8%,比3月下降2.8个百分 点。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%,比3月下降2.8和3.1个百分点,制 造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。 "制造业价格指数有所下降,主要受到市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响。"赵 庆河表示。 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会4月30日发布数据显示,4月,制造业PMI为49%, 比3月下降1.5个百 ...
国家统计局:制造业PMI有所回落
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-04-30 01:37
4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 (四)预期指数保持扩张。生产经营活动预期指数为52.1%,继续位于扩张区间。部分行业企业对近期 发展信心较强,其中食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期指数 均位于58.0%及以上较高景气区间。 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此, 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.0%,比上月下降1.5个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%,继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 4月份,受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响,制造业PMI为49.0%, 回落至临界点以下。 (一)产需两端均有放缓。生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.8%和49.2%,比上月下降2.8和2.6个百分 点,制造业生产和市场需求均有所回落。从行业看,农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶、 ...