Core Insights - Company reported 3Q25 revenue of 5.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, aligning closely with the expected 5.49 billion [1] - Operating profit reached 1.16 billion, exceeding expectations by 7.5%, with an operating profit margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 1.06 billion, surpassing expectations by 2.8% [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue of 5.5 billion was driven by improved hotel and flight prices, with core OTA business revenue from accommodation and booking services reaching 1.58 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Traffic business revenue was 2.209 billion, up 9.0% year-over-year, supported by increased user demand and enhanced value-added products and services [2] - Other business revenue, boosted by hotel management growth, reached 821 million, a year-over-year increase of 34.9%, exceeding expectations by 1.4% [2] Profitability Analysis - Operating profit of 1.16 billion represented a year-over-year increase of 19.0%, exceeding expectations by 7.5% [3] - Core OTA operating profit was 1.44 billion, with an operating profit margin of 21.1%, surpassing expectations by 1.4 percentage points [3] - Adjusted net profit was 1.06 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.5%, primarily driven by refined subsidies and cost control [3] International Business Outlook - International ticket booking volume saw significant year-over-year growth, contributing 6% to total traffic ticket revenue, an increase of 2 percentage points [4] - The company aims to increase international business revenue contribution by over 10% in the future [4] - The proprietary app showed strong performance, with daily active users reaching a historical high, driven by the launch of the AI itinerary planning tool DeepTrip [4] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.4 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 3.4 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.5 billion [4] - Valuation switched to 2026, with a target price set at 29.4 HKD based on a 16 times PE ratio for 2026 [5]

盈利预测与估值 我们基本维持25/26 年收入盈利预期，维持跑赢行业评级和目标价28 港元（对应18x/15x 25e/26e Non- IFRS 市盈率），上行空间为30%，公司目前交易于14x/12x 25e/26e Non-IFRS P/E。 风险 宏观不确定性，费用管控不及预期，投资并购风险。 同程旅行3Q25 收入同增10%至55.1 亿元，略高于市场预期0.5%，主要系酒店收入和其他收入超预期； Non-IFRS 归母净利润10.5 亿元，超市场预期1.1%，对应19.1% Non-IFRS 净利润率，系服务开发费用和 管理费用有效控制。 发展趋势 国内酒店中高星占比提升。1）住宿：3Q25 公司国内酒店间夜量同比增长10-15%，符合此前预期， ADR 同比低单个位数增长，主要系用户消费习惯变化，中高星占比提升，公司三星酒店等高质量供给 的间夜量同比增长20%。我们预计4Q25 酒店收入同比增长15%，其中国内酒店间夜量同比增长约10%， ADR 继续维持同比低单个位数增长，抽佣率同比小幅提升。2）交通：3Q25国内机票量同比增速和大 盘类似，公司聚焦提升变现率，该趋势延续至下个季度，我们预计4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [1] Business Performance Summary - The core OTA business showed robust growth, with Q3 revenue reaching 4.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [1] - Accommodation booking revenue for Q3 was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% year-on-year increase, supported by the growth in international ticket sales, which accounted for 6% of total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points [1] - Other business revenue grew significantly to 0.821 billion yuan, a 34.9% year-on-year increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [1] - Vacation revenue for Q3 was 0.900 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, mainly due to ongoing safety concerns regarding travel to Southeast Asia [1] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage point [1] - Profitability improvements were attributed to the positive effects of revenue scale and the application of AI to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [1] - As of September 30, the company had 253 million annual paying users, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [1] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the core OTA revenue is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue likely to be driven by hotel management [1] - Accommodation revenue is projected to sustain double-digit growth, while transportation revenue is expected to grow in single digits, and vacation business may continue to face challenges [1] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.368 billion yuan, 4.044 billion yuan, and 4.667 billion yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to adjusted PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times for the same years [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its performance and growth prospects [1]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：贾梦迪 同程旅行3Q25 的收入同比增长10%至55 亿元，经调整净利润同比增长17%至10.6 亿元，超出我们的预 期，主要由于住宿业务好于预期。我们将25 年每股盈利预测由1.41 元上调至1.44 元，维持26 年预测 1.57 元，27 年预测1.74 元。目标价由26.5 港币上调至27 港币，对应25%的上涨空间，维持买入评级。 国内业务增长稳健。三季度的核心OTA业务收入同比增长15%。住宿预订收入同比增长15%，受益于酒 店平均价格的增长以及日均间夜量创历史新高。交通票务收入同比增长9%，其他业务收入同比增长 35%，主要受益于酒店管理业务的增长。年付费用户同比增长9%至2.529亿人，创历史新高。 出境机票业务已实现盈利。3Q25 出境机票贡献交通收入的约6%，并实现盈利。公司预计出境游业务将 快速发展，国际机票和酒店在整体机票和酒店的收入贡献在2027 年将提升至10-15%。 维持买入评级。我们看好在线旅游行业的增长确定性和行业竞争格局的稳定，同程旅行是内需消费中确 定性较高的标的，出境游规模的提升有望推动利润率的提升，酒店管理业务也有望提供额外的增长驱动 力 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [1] Group 1: Core Online Travel Platform - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [1] - In the transportation ticketing segment, revenue reached 2.2 billion yuan, up 9% year-over-year, driven by deep insights into user demand and a continuous enhancement of value-added products and services, with international ticket sales growing rapidly [1] - The accommodation booking segment generated 1.58 billion yuan in revenue, a 15% year-over-year increase, benefiting from a significant rise in high-quality hotel room nights and improved brand recognition among high-value users in lower-tier cities [1] - Other revenue sources totaled 820 million yuan, a 35% year-over-year increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and 1,500 hotels in preparation as of September 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Vacation Business and User Performance - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 900 million yuan in Q3 2025, a decline of 8% year-over-year, largely due to security issues in Southeast Asia [2] - The company saw a steady increase in paid user numbers, with an average monthly paid user count of 47.7 million, up 2.8% year-over-year, and an annual paid user count of 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-over-year, with total service users growing by 7.3% to 2.02 billion [2] - As of September 30, 2025, over 87% of registered users lived in non-first-tier cities in China, with more than 70% of new paid users from WeChat in Q3 2025 coming from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in lower-tier markets, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in these markets, international business expansion, and user growth driven by online and offline traffic [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.5 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 2.9 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively, leading to diluted EPS of 1.3, 1.4, and 1.6 yuan, and corresponding P/E ratios of 15.7, 14.2, and 12.3 [2] - The target market value for the company in 2026 is set at 60.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 28 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The core online travel agency (OTA) maintains a steady growth momentum, with a notable performance in international business [4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year [3][4] - The company's hotel management business is expanding, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and an additional 1,500 hotels in preparation [4] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated revenue of 2.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by insights into user demand and a rich array of value-added products [4] - The accommodation booking segment saw revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [4] - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure due to safety issues in Southeast Asia, with Q3 2025 revenue declining by 8% to 900 million yuan [4] Group 3: User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million in Q3 2025, a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [5] - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities, with more than 70% of new paying users in Q3 2025 coming from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [5] Group 4: Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in lower-tier markets, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand and international business expansion [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan [5] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 28 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [5] Group 5: Alibaba Overview - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026 Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5% [14] - The traditional e-commerce segment showed steady growth, with revenue increasing by 16% to 132.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [15] - The cloud business experienced a 34% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching 39.8 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [17] Group 6: Financial Outlook for Alibaba - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,041.8 billion, 1,160.5 billion, and 1,282.1 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 125.1 billion, 149.3 billion, and 184.5 billion yuan [18] - The target market capitalization for Alibaba in FY2027 is estimated at 3,345.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 175 yuan [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year [4]. Group 1: Business Performance - The core OTA business achieved revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [5]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [5]. - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% increase year-on-year, supported by the growth in international ticket sales [5]. - Other business revenue surged to 0.821 billion yuan, marking a 34.9% increase, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [5]. - Vacation revenue decreased to 0.900 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing safety concerns regarding travel to Southeast Asia [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin reached 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage point [6]. - Profitability improvements were driven by revenue scale effects and the application of AI technologies, enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [6]. - The number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [6]. - The international and hotel management businesses are expected to contribute more profits in 2026, with the international business projected to break even [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that Q4 2025 core OTA revenue will maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue driven by hotel management continuing to grow [7]. - Accommodation revenue is expected to sustain double-digit growth, while transportation revenue is projected to grow in single digits, and vacation business may face continued pressure [7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, U.S. consumer spending growth was below expectations, primarily due to the escalation of trade tensions with China, including a 100% tariff threat from Trump, which negatively impacted consumer sentiment [4] - The risk of a government shutdown at the end of September further restricted consumer spending capacity, as many government employees would face salary suspensions [4] - Despite the disappointing consumer data, it may not significantly influence hawkish officials regarding interest rate cuts, leaving uncertainty for potential cuts in December [4] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Commercial Aerospace - The demand for commercial space launches is on the rise, which is expected to sustain the growth of the launch vehicle industry [5] - Launch vehicles are multi-stage aerospace transport tools, with their performance determined by the collaboration of various systems, including structure, control, and propulsion [5] - Key technological advancements, such as reusability and liquid oxygen-methane engines, are driving improvements in cost and performance within the launch vehicle sector [5] Group 3: Company Performance - NIO - NIO reported a total revenue of 21.79 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% [6] - The gross margin improved to 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year and 33.1% quarter-on-quarter, amounting to 2.76 billion yuan [6] Group 4: Company Performance - Tongcheng Travel - Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [8] - The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [8] - The core OTA business generated revenue of 4.609 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, while the gross margin for the company reached 65.7%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is facing challenges in achieving revenue growth, with new models like "C2B" and "JD Travel" not yet delivering significant results [1][2] Group 1: C2B Model Overview - The "C2B" model allows consumers to set prices for hotel rooms, aiming to connect price-sensitive users with hotels that have vacant rooms [2][3] - The "Hui Xuan Ding Fang" platform, representing this model, has struggled to gain traction, with only about 10,000 hotels onboarded against an initial target of 30,000 by 2025 [1][4] - The platform has seen a high cancellation rate of 50% on its nearly 20,000 monthly orders, indicating issues with user trust and hotel engagement [1][4] Group 2: Market Challenges - The platform faces difficulties in attracting hotels due to exclusivity agreements with major OTAs and the reluctance of well-known brands to lower prices [5][8] - User trust is a significant barrier, with many consumers hesitant to engage with a new platform, leading to high cancellation rates and negative feedback regarding order fulfillment [6][10] - The platform's operational model relies on low-cost marketing strategies and partnerships, with a focus on integrating resources rather than traditional advertising [11][12] Group 3: Future Goals and Projections - The company aims to reach 1 million users by the end of the year, with a long-term goal of capturing 25% to 30% of the hotel market share in China, targeting 100,000 to 150,000 hotels [12] - The operational strategy includes building a hotel alliance over the next five years and potentially pursuing an IPO in the future [12]

Group 1 - The 2026 National Examination will take place from November 29 to November 30, with record-high registration numbers due to relaxed age limits for applicants [2] - Hotel bookings around examination venues have surged, particularly for high-quality accommodations, reflecting an increased demand for better lodging options among candidates [2][3] - The report indicates that hotel bookings within a 5-kilometer radius of exam sites increased over nine times compared to the previous week, with high-rated hotels seeing a more than fivefold increase in bookings [2] Group 2 - The top ten cities for "National Exam Rooms" bookings align with the most popular provinces for the exam, including Guangzhou, Beijing, and Jinan [3] - The demand for family rooms has significantly increased, particularly among older candidates preparing for the exam with family support [3] - As of November 26, the booking rate for family rooms near exam sites has tripled compared to the same period last week, with some hotels fully booked three days in advance [3]