Summary of Natural Gas Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the natural gas market, specifically the TTF (Title Transfer Facility) prices in Northwest Europe, which have recently experienced an 11% sell-off due to warmer-than-average weather and potential peace negotiations in Ukraine [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Forecast**: The company maintains a price forecast of 29 EUR/MWh for TTF in 2026, arguing that the recent sell-off is overdone from a fundamental perspective [1]. - **Storage Levels**: Estimated end-March 2026 gas storage levels are projected to be 29% full, down from a previous estimate of 35% full, indicating a lower probability of congestion in NW European gas storage during the upcoming summer [2][10]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - Supply has missed expectations, particularly in December, with LNG imports lower than November levels due to increased demand from Asia and Southern Europe [4]. - Demand was negatively impacted by mild weather in December, which offset the demand support from a colder late November [4]. - **Future Price Expectations**: While European gas balances are expected to soften in the coming years due to higher global LNG supply, TTF prices are forecasted to drop below lignite generation costs by 2027, averaging 20 EUR/MWh [3]. Additional Important Points - **Volatility Risks**: Prices may remain volatile due to ongoing developments regarding Ukraine, with expectations that any peace deal could initially lead to lower gas prices before correcting higher to align with fundamentals [3]. - **Market Revisions**: The analysis indicates tighter balances than previously expected, driven by supply misses and supported power demand [5]. - **Storage Injection Rates**: The expected storage injections are lower than prior estimates, reflecting the adjustments in supply and demand dynamics [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the natural gas market analysis, highlighting the current state and future expectations for TTF prices and storage levels in Northwest Europe.

Core Insights - The report indicates that global energy demand will maintain a high annual increment of approximately 230 million tons of oil equivalent over the next decade [1] - The resilience of fossil energy is exceeding expectations, with various factors potentially delaying the peak oil demand to around 2040 [1] - Natural gas demand is projected to significantly increase, reaching a peak of 5 trillion cubic meters between 2040 and 2045, driven in part by the growth of AI computing power [1] Energy Outlook for China - By 2035, China's primary energy demand is expected to peak at approximately 5 billion tons of oil equivalent, remaining above 4.5 billion tons of oil equivalent by 2060 [1] - The energy structure in China is characterized by a balanced transition, with reductions in coal, stable oil and gas, and an increase in non-fossil energy sources [1] - Natural gas is anticipated to play a crucial role in replacing coal and supporting the new power system in China [1]

大宗周期-石油石化行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 全球原油供应预计在 2026 年增加约 130 万桶/日，低于 2025 年的 270 万桶/日增幅，OPEC+计划增产 120 万桶/日，美洲国家贡献剩余 增量，但美国页岩油增产可能因油价下跌而放缓。 2026 年全球原油需求预计维持在 110 万桶/日左右，与 2025 年持平， 中国和印度仍是主要增长动力，分别预计增加 20 多万桶/日和 30 多万 桶/日，供应增长仍略高于需求。 OPEC+在 2025 年调整策略，转向市场份额争夺，大幅增产，但由于闲 置产能有限，未来对供应格局的调整能力受限，美洲海上油气项目成为 主要新增供应来源。 俄罗斯原油产量虽受制裁影响，但通过海上浮仓维持出口量，俄乌冲突 导致其成品油出口下降，推高欧洲汽柴油裂解价差，并带动石油焦和硫 磺价格上涨。 中国国内汽柴油消费受新能源替代影响下降 4%-5%，但航煤需求保持 增长，山东地炼厂开工率因进口俄伊低价优势减弱而降低，整体成品油 供需双降但仍平衡。 Q&A 2026 年全球原油市场的供需情况如何？ 2026 年全球原油市场预计将继续面临供应过剩的局面。2025 年，OPE ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebounds [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the oil market is in an oversupply pattern, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices. Cost - related factors are dragging down the prices of LPG, L, PP, etc. Some products have short - term supply - demand imbalances and inventory issues [1][9]. - For some chemical products like PTA, EG, and methanol, supply - demand changes, cost support, and inventory trends are the main factors affecting their prices. Urea has a complex supply - demand situation with both domestic and international factors at play [3]. - Natural gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakened demand support. Asphalt prices are affected by cost and seasonal demand factors. Glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances with high inventories [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.94%, Brent down 2.71%, and SC down 1.14% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing as the Russia - Ukraine situation eases. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and global and US inventories are increasing [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production in November increased slightly. The IEA predicts an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 5 [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, the trend is weak. It is recommended to partially close short positions, with SC focusing on the range of 415 - 430 [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, up 1.40% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12][13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, which is in a downward trend. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Inventory has increased [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG prices still have room to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions, with PG focusing on the range of 4150 - 4250 [15]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices, weakening basis, and high production rates limit the rebound space. Supply is sufficient, the peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventory is increasing slightly [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread, with L focusing on the range of 6450 - 6600 [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed significantly [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak demand support, weakening basis, and high inventory limit the rebound space. In December, demand enters the off - season, and the industry chain still faces high inventory - reduction pressure [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or short on MTO05, with PP focusing on the range of 6200 - 6300 [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [25]. - **Basic Logic**: North American plant shutdowns led to a rebound in the market, but the basis weakened. Supply - demand surplus persists until there are concentrated mid - and upstream maintenance. Some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide plants are losing cash flow [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it as a short - term rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction before going long, with V focusing on the range of 4300 - 4450 [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and basis and spreading prices also had some fluctuations [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and many domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. Cost support is weakening, and there is an expected inventory build - up in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low valuation and processing fees, consider going long on the 05 contract on dips, with TA05 focusing on the range of 4610 - 4670 [30]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of EG changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas plant loads have decreased. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in December, and it lacks upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with EG05 focusing on the range of 3730 - 3800 [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data is emphasized, but it is mentioned that the Taicang spot price is weakening [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply - side pressure still exists. Domestic plants are increasing production, while overseas plants are reducing production. Demand is slightly weakening, and cost support is weakening [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The methanol 05 contract is expected to be weak, with the downward space being limited [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of urea changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening. Supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. Demand is currently good but not sustainable. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously avoid shorting. Consider going long on the 05 contract, with UR01 focusing on the range of 1615 - 1640 [42]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.012 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 2.46% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [43][44]. - **Basic Logic**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US has weakened demand support. Gas prices have reached a high level in recent years, and supply is relatively sufficient [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 3.860 - 4.239 US dollars per million British thermal units. The demand has some support, but gas prices are under pressure [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the BU main contract closed at 2891 yuan/ton, down 2.07% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [46][47]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side factors are negative, and it is the consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is relatively high [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions due to the increasing uncertainty in South American geopolitics. Pay attention to the range of 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton [49]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price decreased slightly, and basis and spreading prices changed [51]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply reduction is insufficient under weak demand. Production capacity remains stable, and demand is weak. Inventory is high although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with FG focusing on the range of 1110 - 1150 [53]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price increased, and basis and spreading prices changed [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The market rebounded with reduced positions. Supply is expected to be loose with a planned new plant coming into operation. Demand support is insufficient [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with SA focusing on the range of 1150 - 1200 [57].

匈牙利与美国签署液化天然气采购协议。 匈牙利外交与对外经济部长西雅尔多·彼得12月16日在布达佩斯宣布，匈牙利电力公司 与美国雪佛龙公司当天签署一项总量为20亿立方米的液化天然气采购协议，期限为5年。 西雅尔多在与美国能源部副部长詹姆斯·丹利共同举行的新闻发布会上宣布这一消息。西 雅尔多说，根据协议，雪佛龙公司将每年向匈牙利电力公司供应4亿立方米液化天然气。 这将是美国液化天然气首次纳入匈牙利能源供给结构。 西雅尔多还说，匈方已与美国西屋公司就保克什核电站核燃料供应签署相关合同，计划于 2028 年 至 2029 年 间 启 动 。 双 方 还 就 采 用 美 国 技 术 在 匈 建 设 小 型 模 块 化 反 应 堆 达 成 协 议。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） 编辑丨闫志强 保克什核电站是匈牙利唯一的核电站，由俄罗斯建造，发电量占该国用电量的大约一半。 按照西雅尔多的说法，美国总统特朗普已决定对匈牙利从俄罗斯购买能源豁免相关制裁。 匈牙利总理欧尔班11月7日到访白宫与特朗普会谈时，承诺从美国购买总额约6亿美元的 液化天然气，并加强核能和防务合作。 来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "introduction listing" is gaining popularity among companies in the Hong Kong stock market, allowing them to list without raising new funds, thus streamlining the process and reducing costs [2][8]. Group 1: Reasons for Choosing "Introduction Listing" - "Introduction listing" allows companies to list their existing shares on the exchange without issuing new stocks or raising funds, making it a more efficient process that can be completed in 3 to 6 months [2]. - This method is particularly suitable for companies seeking dual listings, such as those already listed on foreign exchanges, to expand their shareholder base and attract regional investors [2]. - Companies planning to transition from the Hong Kong Growth Enterprise Market to the main board can also utilize this method to enhance market credibility and liquidity without the need for new stock issuance [3]. - Subsidiaries or restructured entities with a mature shareholder structure can directly list their shares, as they already have a distribution base that meets market liquidity requirements [4]. Group 2: Strategic Value Analysis of Companies - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical became the first case of H-share absorption merger and introduction listing in Hong Kong, allowing it to lower integration costs and time without issuing new shares [5]. - Lantu Motors is pursuing an "introduction listing + privatization" strategy, where it will first distribute shares to existing shareholders before listing, facilitating access to capital markets while optimizing asset value for its parent company [6]. - Xin'ao Holdings plans to achieve a dual listing through privatization, aiming to create a closed-loop natural gas industry chain and enhance resource synergy and capital operation capabilities [7]. Group 3: Importance of Introduction Listing in Capital Strategy - Introduction listing is becoming a crucial part of corporate capital strategies, representing a shift from the traditional view of listing as a means to raise funds [8]. - This approach enables companies to quickly enter the capital market, achieve valuation restructuring, industry integration, and brand upgrading, laying the groundwork for future financing and business expansion [8].

西雅尔多还说，匈方已与美国西屋公司就保克什核电站核燃料供应签署相关合同，计划于2028年至2029 年间启动。双方还就采用美国技术在匈建设小型模块化反应堆达成协议。 保克什核电站是匈牙利唯一的核电站，由俄罗斯建造，发电量占该国用电量的大约一半。 按照西雅尔多的说法，美国总统特朗普已决定对匈牙利从俄罗斯购买能源豁免相关制裁。匈牙利总理欧 尔班11月7日到访白宫与特朗普会谈时，承诺从美国购买总额约6亿美元的液化天然气，并加强核能和防 务合作。（总台记者 卜卫军） 匈牙利外交与对外经济部长西雅尔多12月16日在布达佩斯宣布，匈牙利电力公司与美国雪佛龙公司当天 签署一项总量为20亿立方米的液化天然气采购协议，期限为5年。 西雅尔多在与美国能源部副部长詹姆斯·丹利共同举行的新闻发布会上宣布这一消息。西雅尔多说，根据 协议，雪佛龙公司将每年向匈牙利电力公司供应4亿立方米液化天然气。这将是美国液化天然气首次纳入 匈牙利能源供给结构。 △匈牙利外交与对外经济部长西雅尔多（资料图） ...

香港聯合交易所有限公司與證券及期貨事務監察委員會對本申請版本的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦 不發表任何意見，並明確表示概不就因本申請版本全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何 損失承擔任何責任。 ENN Natural Gas Co., Ltd. 新奧天然氣股份有限公司 （一家於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 的申請版本 警告 本申請版本乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）與證券及期貨事務監察委員會（「證監會」）的要求而刊發，僅用 作提供資訊予香港公眾人士。 本申請版本為草擬本，其內所載資料並不完整，亦可能會作出重大變動。 閣下閱覽本文件，即代表 閣下知悉、接納 並向新奧天然氣股份有限公司（「本公司」）及其保薦人和顧問表示同意： 本申請版本將不會於美國刊發或派發予美國人士。本申請版本所述的任何證券並無亦不會根據1933年美國證券法（經 修訂）或美國任何州份證券法例登記，亦不可在未根據該證券法登記或未取得該證券法的豁免的情況下在美國發售或出 售，且將不會於美國進行任何證券公開發售。 本申請版本或其內所載資料並不屬於美國或禁止發售或出售證券的任何其他司法管轄區提呈出售或徵求購買任 ...

中国燃气(00384)发布公告，于2025年12月8日，北燃新加坡与China Gas International(公司的间接全资附 属公司)订立主协议，为订约方买卖液化天然气提供框架。于2025年12月10日，China Gas International与 北燃新加坡订立确认备忘录，据此，China Gas International同意购买而北燃新加坡同意出售340万 MMBtu的液化天然气，总代价为3888.58万美元。 ...

格隆汇12月16日丨中国燃气(00384.HK)公告，于2025年12月8日，北燃新加坡与公司的间接全资附属公 司China Gas International订立主协议，为订约方买卖液化天然气提供框架。于2025年12月10日，China Gas International与北燃新加坡订立确认备忘录，据此，China Gas International同意购买而北燃新加坡同 意出售340万MMBtu的液化天然气，总代价为38,885,800美元。 China Gas International与北燃新加坡订立该协议及其项下拟进行交易，标志着集团拓展其国际贸易业务 的里程碑。北燃新加坡为北京控股的海外贸易平台，在国际贸易及三方贸易安排方面具备丰富经验，该 交易属三方国际贸易架构下进行的试点交易，可作为集团日后与其他国际交易对手进行类似交易的参 考。董事(包括独立非执行董事)认为，该交易将使集团能够扩展其国际液化天然气贸易活动、加强其在 国际市场的执行能力，以及增加其整体市场导向国际贸易量，且知悉该交易大致上符合市场惯例。 北燃新加坡为一间于新加坡注册成立的有限公司，主要从事固态、液态及气态燃料及相关产品的批发 ...