Core Insights - The report suggests that the market performance has decoupled from earnings since September last year, resembling the period from 2013 to 2015. In the early stages of PPI decline, negative impacts on earnings dominated, but as PPI remained negative for a sufficient duration, policy and liquidity factors improved, leading to a decoupling of market performance from earnings [2][10][11] - The current macro-level asset shortage may exceed that of 2014. If the bull market is driven by liquidity and policy rather than earnings, the logic of asset scarcity becomes more significant. The current 10-year government bond yield is about half of that in 2014, and the rate of decline over the past two years is comparable to that of 2014 [3][20][22] - Insurance funds have already impacted the market, and there is potential for increased inflow from household funds. Since the pandemic in 2020, household deposits have risen rapidly, but their inflow into the stock market has been limited due to the lack of a stable profit-making effect. With the market transitioning from bearish to bullish since September last year, conditions for accelerated household fund inflow are gradually being met [22][24] Market Changes - The report indicates that the A-share market has seen significant increases in major indices, with the ChiNext 50 rising by 2.65% and the ChiNext Index by 2.36%. In contrast, sectors like coal and banking have experienced declines [38][42] - Global stock markets have shown mixed performance, with indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 performing well, while indices in Brazil and Mexico have declined [39] - The report notes a net inflow of 241.19 billion yuan from southbound funds (Hong Kong Stock Connect) this week, indicating strong market interest [40][48]

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, primarily influenced by policy changes and the low probability of interest rate cuts in July, alongside the announcement of high tariffs on copper by the U.S., leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The short-term forecast for copper prices indicates a weak trend, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 77,500-79,500 CNY/ton and LME copper between 9,450-9,850 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Domestic aluminum prices initially fell before rebounding, with an average price of 20,696 CNY, reflecting a decrease of 0.61% [1] - The market is influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and adjustments in tariff policies, leading to fluctuations in demand and inventory levels [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices suggests continued high-range fluctuations, with an average price expected around 20,650 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a stable range-bound movement with an average price of 16,950 CNY, slightly down by 0.06% [1] - The market lacks upward momentum for lead prices, although cost support limits downward movement, indicating a continuation of range-bound trading [1] - The short-term forecast for lead prices suggests a focus on the range of 16,800-17,100 CNY for spot prices [1] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc market sentiment is pessimistic due to tariffs and seasonal factors, with expectations of a slight decline in prices [2] - Despite a relaxed supply outlook due to global zinc mine production increases, relatively low inventory levels provide some price support [2] - The anticipated range for next week's zinc prices is between 21,800-22,500 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and ongoing tariff disturbances, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Supply remains tight, but recent price declines have prompted downstream purchasing activity, indicating a potential for recovery in transactions [2] - The expected price range for tin next week is between 258,000-270,000 CNY, with a focus on macroeconomic developments and consumption trends [2] Group 6: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are on a downward trend, with an average price of 121,775 CNY, down by 710 CNY or 0.58% [3] - The market sentiment is bearish, influenced by falling nickel-iron prices and a lack of significant demand improvement [3] - The forecast for nickel prices suggests a potential rebound, with a trading range expected between 118,000-123,000 CNY [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest meeting minutes show differences among members regarding future prospects, mainly due to different expectations of tax impacts on inflation. The initial jobless claims in the US have decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims remain at the highest level since the end of last year. Some Fed officials believe that two interest rate cuts within the year are most likely, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar still uncertain. Recently, tin prices have adjusted, and smelters are holding firm on prices, with few transactions. Traders' quotes follow the market, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has increased, with overall market trading performing well. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Report Summary - The Fed's meeting minutes reveal differences among members on future prospects, mainly due to different inflation expectations influenced by taxes. US initial jobless claims have dropped for four consecutive weeks, hitting a two - month low, while continuing claims are at a high since late last year. Some Fed officials see two potential rate cuts this year, and tariff impacts on prices are milder than expected, enhancing market risk preference. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, and the resumption in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Tin prices have adjusted, smelters are holding prices, and trading is sluggish. Traders' quotes follow the market, and downstream buying interest has increased, with overall trading performing well [5]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The resumption rhythm of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is still uncertain; overseas inventories have declined; the US dollar index remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumer end is in the industry's off - season, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has significantly decreased [7]. Data Analysis - **Supply and demand balance**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January to April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January to April, it was 103,700 tons [9]. - **Price and basis**: This week, tin futures prices remained volatile. The basis of Shanghai tin was - 1,810 yuan/ton, changing from premium to discount; the LME tin premium was 22.21 dollars/ton, changing from discount to premium [12]. - **Smelter operating rate**: Recently, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been slightly rising. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces reached 53.97%. Yunnan smelters face tight tin ore supply, and although the operating rate rose slightly by 4.13% this week, it is still far below the level in Q4 2024. Jiangxi smelters rely on waste tin recycling, but poor terminal consumption has led to a decline in recycling volume and increased production costs. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in the two regions will remain low in July [15]. - **Import data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (equivalent to about 6,518 metal tons), a month - on - month increase of 36.39% and a year - on - year increase of 59.84%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 50,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04% and a year - on - year increase of 225.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. In May, refined tin exports were 1,770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.19%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 9,584 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.48%, with imports and exports basically balanced [18][24]. - **Production data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. It is expected that in June 2025, domestic refined tin production will be around 13,800 tons [21]. - **Automobile industry data**: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June, production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [27]. - **Solder industry data**: In May, the solder operating rate was 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The operating rates of large, medium, and small solder enterprises all decreased [30]. - **Inventory data**: The latest LME tin inventory is 2,015 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. As of the week of July 4, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 3.49% to 7,198 tons [34]. 后市研判 - Tin prices will maintain a volatile pattern [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation trend may have formed. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may drive the zinc price to return, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$9.88 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,090 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton and closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 154,513 lots, a decrease of 4,004 lots. The open interest was 114,762 lots, a decrease of 4,112 lots. The highest price was 22,175 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,980 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. As of July 9, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The upward movement of the futures market dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and the spot premium further declined [4] - **Supply**: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The output in July is expected to be as high as 590,000 tons, and the supply pressure remains [4] - **Inventory**: The increase in social inventory has expanded, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may have occurred [4] - **Cost**: The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, and the supply pressure still exists [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, price movements, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies for each sector [2][11][24] - Different sectors face different opportunities and risks. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the stock index futures suggest trading based on economic and policy expectations; in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices are affected by policies, production, and demand; in the energy chemicals sector, geopolitical risks and supply - demand balances impact prices [2][11][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Category Stock Index - **Base Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH show different base ratios for different contracts [2] - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariff impacts; domestically, focus on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. With low treasury bond rates and high stock - bond yield ratios, funds may flow into high - yield assets. Suggest going long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF long contracts at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [3] Treasury Bond - **Market Condition**: On Wednesday, TL, T, and TF contracts rose, while the TS contract remained unchanged. China's June CPI and PPI data were released, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Strategy**: Economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The PMI in June recovered, but exports may face pressure. The money market is expected to remain loose, and interest rates are expected to decline. It is recommended to enter the market at low prices [6] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. The US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index were reported [7] - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's minutes show a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, with internal differences. It is expected that the Fed's stance will turn dovish. Focus on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Movement**: Affected by the US copper tariff policy, prices fluctuated. LME and Shanghai copper showed different trends. The inventory, premium, and import - export situation were reported [11] - **Price Forecast**: The policy is uncertain, and the price may fluctuate. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to be high, and the inventory is expected to be stable. Shanghai copper may be stronger than LME copper [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The domestic commodity market was strong, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory, processing fee, and spot premium situation were reported [12] - **Outlook**: The domestic market is strong, but overseas trade is uncertain. The inventory is low, but the supply may increase in July, which may limit the upward space of aluminum prices [12] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Tin, etc.) - **Zinc**: Supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is under pressure [13] - **Lead**: The primary supply is high, and the secondary supply is tight. The price is strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [14] - **Nickel**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is falling. It is recommended to go short at high prices [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is short, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Condition**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices were reported [24] - **Analysis**: The export is affected by the Vietnamese anti - dumping policy. The domestic demand is insufficient, and the market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [24] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the iron ore main contract rose. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [25] - **Outlook**: The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand was affected by steel production. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [25][26] Other Products (Glass, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded, and soda ash prices are expected to be weak. The supply, demand, and inventory situation were reported [27] Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Movement**: NR and RU rebounded. The reasons for the rise and fall were different, and the tire industry situation was reported [37][38][39] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral view. Pay attention to the band operation opportunity [40] Other Chemicals (Crude Oil, Methanol, etc.) - **Crude Oil**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil rose. The inventory data was reported. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see [41] - **Methanol**: The price of the 09 contract and the spot price fell. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] Agricultural Products Category Livestock and Poultry Products (Pigs, Eggs) - **Pigs**: The prices in different regions showed different trends. The supply may increase, and the price may decline in the north. The short - term long - position may have space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [53] - **Eggs**: The prices were mostly stable. The supply is large, and the demand is cautious. The short - term is recommended to wait and see or short - term operation, and the medium - term is recommended to short after the festival [54] Oilseeds and Oils (Soybean Meal, Vegetable Oil) - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are in a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal supply is high, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to supply pressure [55][56] - **Vegetable Oil**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the domestic inventory increased. The EPA policy supports the price, but there are still negative factors. It is recommended to view it with a fluctuating attitude [57][58][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable nickel profits in Q2, with cobalt performance showing elasticity. The forecast for H1 2025 indicates a net profit of 2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%-68% [7] - Nickel wet-process projects are expected to continue overproducing, with a projected shipment of over 70,000 tons in Q2, maintaining stable profits. The company anticipates nickel intermediate shipments of over 280,000 tons for the year, a 25% increase year-on-year [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, potentially leading to a second wave of price increases in the second half of the year, with the company’s cobalt projects contributing significantly to profits [7] - Copper is expected to contribute stable profits, while lithium is projected to break even. The company aims for a total copper shipment of 90,000 tons for the year, contributing 700-800 million in profits [7] - The sales of positive materials are expected to recover significantly, with a target of 130,000 tons for the year, a 30% increase year-on-year [7] - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 44%, 12%, and 22% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.351 billion, down 14.25% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.58 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 138.963 billion by 2025, with total liabilities of 84.779 billion [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased policy uncertainty and market volatility [14][15] - Various commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, such as the impact of tariff threats on palm oil exports, the production pressure on Ferrexpo's iron ore, and the adjustment of the expected price of polysilicon [2][30][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.02%, lower than the expected 3.13% and the previous value of 3.20%. Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper, and the equal - tariff is postponed to August 1. Gold lacks the impetus to break through and rise, and there is a risk of decline in the short term [9][10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper, threatens to impose sanctions on Russia, and the tariff deadline on August 1 will not be postponed. Market risk appetite is affected, and the dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [12][13][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - National leaders inspected Shanxi, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. The A - share market sentiment is high, and it is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US June one - year inflation expectation dropped to a five - month low. Trump threatens to impose a 50% copper tariff, and tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected. The industry tariff pressure increases, and there is a risk of US stock market correction [20][21][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise marginally from July to August, and long positions can be held and bought on dips [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 7.3%, and the US cotton growth progress was slightly slow but the excellent rate was higher. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26][27][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Due to US tariff threats, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the US are expected to decline. Palm oil prices rose significantly yesterday, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a callback [30][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises in production areas are in a loss state, and the starch inventory cycle changes rapidly with high uncertainty [32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction on July 8 cooled down, and it is recommended to enter short positions on new crops lightly in advance [33][34] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic steam coal exists. The daily consumption of steam coal is high in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable in July [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of excavators in June increased year - on - year, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [36][38][39] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Ferrexpo's iron ore production in the second quarter was under pressure. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair of coking coal [40] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount. The lead price center may gradually rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the external reverse arbitrage opportunity [41] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expected price of polysilicon was significantly increased, but there are still problems in reality. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount, and the zinc market is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. It is recommended to short on rallies, arrange medium - term positive arbitrage, and maintain the medium - term positive arbitrage idea externally [44] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The output of organic silicon increased. The industrial silicon price may face a downward risk, and it is recommended to short on rallies [45][46][47] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel raw materials began to weaken, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [48][49] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium carbonate project's environmental impact assessment was accepted. It is recommended to buy on dips and arrange positive arbitrage [50][51] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - EIA lowered the forecast of US crude oil production growth this year, and API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [52][53][54] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly, and it is expected to adjust in the short term and the supply gap will widen in the medium term [54][55] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis declined. It is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of PX maintenance on the supply - demand gap in the medium term [56][57] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices were lowered, and it is recommended to increase the processing fee of bottle chips on dips [58][59][60] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [60][61][62] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp fluctuated, and it is expected to fluctuate in the market [62] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device is expected to be put into production. The pure benzene futures were listed, and the styrene - pure benzene spread narrowed. There may be a long - term allocation opportunity for pure benzene [63][64][66] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices fluctuated slightly, and the market is expected to have limited upside [67] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The construction of national zero - carbon parks was launched, and CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [68][69] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices were weak and fluctuating, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [70] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market were stable. It is recommended to use the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [71][73]

Group 1 - Glencore has sold its copper smelting plant to the Villar family, a prominent business group in the Philippines [1] - This transaction indicates a strategic shift for Glencore, focusing on divesting non-core assets [1] - The sale reflects the growing interest in copper production and processing in the Philippines, aligning with the country's economic growth [1]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing the financial and commodity markets. - In the stock index market, it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices. - In the bond market, it is advisable to enter the market at low prices as interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. - In the precious metals market, a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained due to the expected easing of the Fed's policy. - In the metal market, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are in a state of complex supply - demand and price fluctuations, and different trading strategies are recommended for different products. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: Trump threatens to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries; Changxin Storage starts the listing guidance; Guojin Securities' Hong Kong subsidiary prepares to apply for virtual asset trading licenses; the eurozone's July Sentix investor confidence index reaches a new high [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH futures contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East decline, and the market risk appetite recovers. Domestically, economic data in May is stable, and policies are introduced to support the market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" at low prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures long at low prices, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined to varying degrees [5]. - **News**: China's foreign exchange reserves increased in June; Trump threatens to impose tariffs on countries supporting BRICS' anti - US policies [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the economic data and policy support, it is expected that interest rates will decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.36%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.19%. COMEX gold rose 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US fiscal and monetary policies are the core drivers of precious metal prices. It is expected that the Fed will ease its policy in the second half of the year, and a long - term bullish view on silver is maintained [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.69%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79390 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose. In China, social inventory increased, and the spot premium changed. The copper price is under pressure of phased shock adjustment [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum fell 1.31%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20490 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index fell 1.41%, and LME zinc fell 50 to 2695.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore supply is high, and the zinc price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and the decline of the long - short structure [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index fell 0.48%, and LME lead fell 19 to 2043.5 dollars/ton. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The lead price is relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai nickel fell 1.41%, and LME nickel fell 0.85%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. The price difference between refined nickel and nickel iron is high, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin fell 1.40%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, and the terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the LC2509 contract rose 0.60%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The lithium price has limited upward space, and it is recommended to pay attention to demand expectations and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose 0.15%. - **Industry Situation**: The alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to policy and production reduction risks [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.71%. - **Industry Situation**: It is in the consumption off - season, and the supply - demand excess pattern is difficult to reverse. The spot market is expected to be weak [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.78%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are weak, and the price is affected by the aluminum price. The upper resistance is large [20][21]. Black Construction Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry Situation**: The export is under pressure due to the anti - dumping policy. The supply - demand situation of rebar and hot - rolled coil is different, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies, demand, and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron ore main contract fell 0.20%. - **Industry Situation**: The supply and demand of iron ore are affected by multiple factors. The price is in a wide - range shock, and it is necessary to control risks [25][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The glass price rebounded, and the soda ash price was stable. - **Industry Situation**: Glass is affected by policies, and it is recommended to avoid short - selling. Soda ash has large inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.04%, and ferrosilicon was flat. - **Industry Situation**: The industry is over - supplied, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and short at high prices for hedging positions [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.81%. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is over - supplied, and demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU adjusted downward. - **Industry Situation**: The tire industry has a neutral start - up rate, and the inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to be long - term bullish in the second half of the year and neutral in the short - term [39][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all declined. - **Industry Situation**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry Situation**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to short - long opportunities at low prices [45]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, and the futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The cost is sufficient, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [46]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 14 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both expected to decline, and it is recommended to short at high prices [50]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was flat. - **Industry Situation**: Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is slightly under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [51]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 12 yuan. - **Industry Situation**: The overhaul season is over, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: The price is expected to fluctuate due to inventory and demand factors [53]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The pig price may stop falling and rise slightly. The short - term long - position has space, but the medium - term needs to consider supply and hedging pressure [56]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price mostly declined. - **Industry Situation**: The egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in others. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term [57][58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans fell 2.75%, and domestic soybean meal spot fell. - **Industry Situation**: The soybean import cost is stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to trade policies [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Domestic oils and fats fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a shock [62][63]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated, and the spot price declined. - **Industry Situation**: Brazilian sugar exports increased, and the domestic sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. - **Industry Situation**: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [65].