Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, three soft indicators showed divergence: EPMI and BCI declined, while manufacturing PMI increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, indicating mixed economic signals in the manufacturing sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Analysis - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to sample differences, with EPMI focusing on strategic emerging industries and BCI primarily representing private small and medium enterprises. The structure of June's PMI indicates that large enterprises are experiencing improved conditions, while small enterprises are facing downturns [4][5]. - In June, large enterprises' PMI was 51.2, up from 50.7; medium enterprises' PMI was 48.6, up from 47.5; and small enterprises' PMI was 47.3, down from 49.3, highlighting the disparity in performance across different enterprise sizes [5]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Significant increases in PMI were observed in the petroleum processing, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries, with respective increases of 8.6, 7.2, and 4.0 points. These changes are expected to have a notable impact on overall data due to the substantial contribution of these industries to manufacturing value added [6][8]. - The rise in the petroleum and chemical sectors is linked to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly due to recent increases in international crude oil prices [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Expectations - Manufacturing employment and enterprise expectations both saw declines in June, indicating a slowdown in internal economic momentum when excluding the impacts of commodity price fluctuations [8][10]. - The manufacturing employment index was reported at 47.9, down from 48.1, while the production and business activity expectation index was at 52.0, down from 52.5, reflecting cautious sentiment among manufacturers [9][10]. Group 4: Positive Signals - Despite some negative indicators, there were positive signals in June, such as a slight increase in new export orders to 47.7, which contrasts with the direction of EPMI export orders, suggesting potential for future verification [11]. - The construction sector also showed improvement, with the construction PMI rising by 1.8 points to 52.8, driven by better orders and business activity expectations, likely influenced by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10][12].

Group 1 - In the first five months of 2025, the petroleum coke production in Hebei Province reached 369,000 tons, representing a 16.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 4.7 percentage points higher than in 2024, and 21.0 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The total petroleum coke production from large-scale industrial enterprises in China during the same period was 13,124,000 tons, with Hebei's share being 2.8% [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, the petroleum coke production in Hebei Province was 72,000 tons, which is a decrease of 4.6% compared to May 2024, with a growth rate 106.4 percentage points lower than in 2024, but still 3.4 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - The national petroleum coke production for May 2025 was 2,469,000 tons, with Hebei's contribution being 2.9% [2]

Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 博汇股份 is taking multiple measures to address its declining performance, including accelerating global sourcing, improving product quality, and expanding into international markets [1] - 博汇股份 is engaging in commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [1] - The company plans to issue 73,644,312 shares to state-owned enterprises, which will increase state ownership to approximately 33.13% after the conversion of convertible bonds [1] - 博汇股份 has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, 无锡极致液冷科技有限公司, to enter the liquid cooling industry, optimizing its business structure and creating new growth potential [1] Group 2 - 深圳市凯丰投资管理有限公司 is a macro-hedge fund management company that invests in global bulk commodities, bonds, equity assets, and their derivatives [2] - 凯丰投资 has received multiple awards for its fund management, including "2014年度金牛私募管理公司（宏观期货策略）" and "2015年度金牛私募管理公司（宏观期货策略）" [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of detailed industry research and aims to strengthen communication and cooperation with real enterprises to provide comprehensive solutions within the industry chain [2]

Group 1: Company Strategies for Sustainable Development - The company is accelerating global sourcing efforts to enhance the procurement of raw materials, aiming to improve cost-effectiveness through AI-driven market analysis systems [2][3] - Focus on R&D in specialized oils and new chemical materials to enhance product quality and increase added value, with transformer oil being a key product for future cooling applications [2][3] - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Wuxi to explore liquid cooling business, optimizing its business structure and expanding market reach [3][4] Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Strategies - The company engages in commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks from price fluctuations in raw materials and products, utilizing approved futures exchanges for transactions [3] - Plans to issue up to 73,644,312 shares to state-owned assets, which, combined with transferred shares, will result in state ownership of approximately 33.13% of the company [3] - The company is awaiting approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of A-shares to specific investors [3] Group 3: Market Expansion and Product Development - The company is the only private refinery in China operating bonded high-sulfur fuel oil, breaking the reliance on imports for this product [3] - Continuous process optimization is being implemented to enhance product quality stability and increase capacity utilization [3] - The establishment of the Wuxi subsidiary will provide comprehensive liquid cooling management solutions, contributing to the company's growth potential [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. It's expected to remain strong in Q3 due to peak - season power generation demand and geopolitical policy games, and become looser in Q4 as demand fades and supply returns. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3][4][63]. - For investment strategies, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3 for arbitrage, and there are no options recommendations [5][63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was supported by supply in Q1 2025, with main suppliers like Russia, Iran, and Mexico having supply issues. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and Egypt bought large amounts for power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak overall, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong in Q3 due to power generation demand and geopolitical factors, and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. In Q1, supply - side issues in Russia, Iran, and Mexico supported the market. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and supply tightened. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [9][10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - **High - sulfur supply**: - Russia's supply was restricted by sanctions and bombings in H1 2025, and is expected to remain below 300 tons/month in H2. - Mexico's high - sulfur supply returned to the level before the Olmeca refinery's operation and is expected to be stable. - Middle - East high - sulfur exports had a monthly gap of about 400,000 tons in H1 2025 compared to previous years, mainly due to Iran. It's expected to be restricted in Q3 and recover in Q4 [18][22][28]. - **Low - sulfur supply**: - South Sudan's low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is recovering, and export tenders continue. - Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery has stable supply. - Nigeria's Dangote refinery has unstable gasoline unit operation, with sufficient short - term low - sulfur supply [50][52][54]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - **High - sulfur demand**: - High - sulfur marine fuel demand is stably supported by the growth of desulfurization tower - equipped ships. - China's refinery high - sulfur feed demand is expected to slightly recover in H2. - High - sulfur power generation demand in summer 2025 exceeded expectations and is expected to remain strong in Q3 [34][38][45]. - **Low - sulfur demand**: - There is no specific driving force for demand, and marine fuel demand is stable. - China's low - sulfur market has abundant quotas, and production is stable [56][58]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No information provided. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong before Q3 and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - Strategy recommendations: - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [63].

Group 1 - Shandong Molong experienced a rapid decline, with its increase narrowing to within 30% [1]

ljs 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/26 | | 指标 | 5/27 | 6/17 | 6/23 | 6/24 | 6/25 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3516 | 3644 | 3781 | 3580 | 3574 | -6 | -70 | | | BU06 | 3523 | 3381 | 3472 | 3301 | 3280 | -21 | -101 | | | BU09 | 3465 | 3644 | 3781 | 3580 | 3574 | -6 | -70 | | | BU12 | 3278 | 3482 | 3620 | 3417 | 3405 | -12 | -77 | | 程南 | BU03 | 3234 | 3379 | 3531 | 3341 | 3321 | -20 | -28 | | | 成交量 | 458674 | 421957 | 421608 | 623658 | 381167 | -242491 | -40790 ...

6月25日，东营市政府新闻办举办"抓改革创新促高质量发展"主题系列新闻发布会第七场，对东营市发展改革委"抓改革创新，促高质量 发展"的有关情况进行介绍。 "近年来，东营市抢抓山东绿色低碳高质量发展先行区建设机遇，以全面深化改革为动力，加力提速打造产业转型升级、特色生态城市、 乡村振兴'三个升级版'，加快构建现代产业体系，协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，新动能新优势不断塑强，经济发展质量更高、活力更 强，高水平现代化强市建设迈出坚实步伐。"发布会上，东营市发展改革委党组成员、副主任李过介绍，全市经济运行稳中提质，产业升 级步伐加快，内需外贸协同发力，改革创新不断深化，发展空间有效拓展。 在内需外贸方面，全市项目建设加力提速，1—5月份，固定资产投资同比增长8.5%，较1—4月份提高0.1个百分点，高于全省7.2个百分 点，居全省第3位；认真落实省提振消费十大行动计划，配套出台"1＋10"实施方案和政策措施，1—5月份，全市限额以上消费品零售额 157.31亿元，同比增长14%，较1—4月份提高0.4个百分点，高于全省6.6个百分点，居全省第2位；外贸外资运行稳定，宁德时代 （300750）零碳产业园及40GWh锂电池 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the waterproofing membrane开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The device maintenance volume is estimated to be 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Basis**: On June 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 180 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the in - plant inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57%. The social inventory remains stable, and the in - plant and port inventories continue to be depleted [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases [10].