4月，巴西中南部2025/2026榨季生产正式拉开帷幕，受供给预期增加及需求疲软等因素的影响，国际原 糖价格重心逐步下移。7月2日，ICE原糖期货主力合约价格下挫至15.44美分／磅，创下近4年来新低， 随后出现技术性修复行情，回升至16美分／磅关键支撑位上方；至8月中旬，国际原糖期货价格维持 16~17美分／磅区间震荡。综合来看，年内，全球糖市仍将处于增产周期，但市场已对供应过剩预期进 行充分计价，原糖价格继续下行的空间有限。此外，巴西食糖增产不及预期的概率增加，且市场缺乏新 的驱动因素，或使国际糖价陷入僵持走势，短期难有趋势性突破。 知名糖业咨询机构Covrig Analytics近日发布报告称，随着亚洲和北美需求放缓，叠加巴西、泰国和印度 的食糖产量有所提升，预计2025/2026榨季全球食糖市场供应过剩420万吨，食糖总产量增长3.7%，至 1.948亿吨，而需求仅增长0.8%，至1.906亿吨，供需格局将从平衡转为过剩，糖价下行压力显著。同 时，分析机构StoneX和大宗商品贸易商Czarnikow也分别预测2025/2026榨季全球食糖供应过剩304万吨 和750万吨。 具体从各国来看，巴西方面， ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： 1、沐甜：白糖南部区域报价上调为主，成交一般。广西:南宁中间商站台报价 6000 元/ 吨，报价上调 10 元，成交一般;南宁仓库报价 5970 元/吨，报价上调 10 元，成交一般。柳州 中间商站台报价 6030 元/吨，仓库报价 5980-6000 元/吨，报价上调 20 元，成交一般。广东: 广州中间商湛江糖报价 6070 元/吨，报价不变，成交一般。湛江中间商仓库报价暂无。 2、康师傅上半年营收超 400 亿元，净利增两成。从饮品细分表现来看，"碳酸及其他" 是饮品业务中实现同比增长的品类，该品类上半年收入同比增长 6.3%至 103.56 亿元。 3、美国农业部(USDA)预计，美国 2025/26 年度(10 月开始)糖产量将达到创纪录的 942 万吨，甜菜糖和蔗糖产量预估双双被上修。美国农业部将甜菜糖产量预估从上个月的 509 万 吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The short - term external market is strong, but the continuous upward space of sugar price is limited. It is expected to maintain range - bound. In China, the inventory pressure is low in July, but the concentrated arrival of third - quarter shipments and increased imports in the second half of the year will bring pressure to domestic sugar sales. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize after a sharp correction [3]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals of pulp and its downstream have changed little. The import volume in July was high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is difficult to rebound. The price increase is difficult to be transmitted, but the price is less likely to return to the June low [5]. - **Cotton**: The external market may continue to bottom - hunting, and the domestic market is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The price may continue to fluctuate and sort out in the short term [7]. - **Apples**: The current focus is on the end of the old season and the realization of the new season. The initial production estimate cannot provide a trend guide. The price of early - maturing apples has risen, but the sustainability needs to be tracked. The overall price of the apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory is being depleted, and the spot price is running strongly. The 2601 contract is recommended for long - holding, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on production [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apples**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 7400 - 7500, and the pressure range is 8300 - 8400 [18]. - **Jujubes**: Hold long positions. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Sugar**: Try to go long when it回调 to the lower edge of the range. The support range is 5500 - 5530, and the pressure range is 5670 - 5700 [18]. - **Pulp**: Short on rallies. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [18]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume decreased. The inventory in cold storage decreased. There are different estimates of production, with a slight increase or decrease [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is stable. The shipment volume is general. The price of early - maturing apples varies greatly. The arrival at the wholesale market is small, and the price is stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of August 8, the inventory decreased. The arrival at the sales area increased, and the spot price was strong. Attention should be paid to terminal consumption and shipment sustainability [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The domestic spot price is stable, and the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.54 cents/pound. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing is high [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The transaction of imported bleached softwood pulp is light. The price increase is not accepted by buyers. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has increased, and two companies plan to reduce production [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - Vietnam's cotton textile and clothing production data from January to July 2025 shows an increase in textile production and a decrease in clothing production. - Brazil's cotton picking progress is advancing, but lags behind last year. - Australia's cotton export volume increased significantly in June. - Pakistan's cotton imports increased significantly from July 2024 to June 2025. - Thailand's cotton imports increased in June. - Egypt's cotton net signing and shipment volume increased in the week ending August 9 [28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8178 | 51 | 0.63% | | Jujube 2509 | 10385 | - 145 | - 1.38% | | Sugar 2509 | 5706 | 28 | 0.49% | | Pulp 2509 | 5216 | 14 | 0.27% | | Cotton 2601 | 13980 | 100 | 0.72% | [30] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | 0.15 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5960 | 0 | - 540 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5850 | 0 | - 250 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15177 | 16 | 407 | [33] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [44][45][49]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 193 | - 5 | 84 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1155 | - 580 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 98 | - 7 | - 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 70 | 20 | 105 | Range - bound | Temporarily wait and see | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [58][60][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 9214 | 0 | - 970 | | Sugar | 17853 | - 387 | 1901 | | Pulp | 253327 | 1872 | - 239490 | | Cotton | 8087 | - 85 | - 2309 | [78] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [80][82][83].

智通财经APP获悉，市场再次担忧全球最大产糖国巴西的甘蔗减产可能引发供应紧张，纽约原糖期货价 格连续第三日上涨，创下自2月21日以来的最长连涨纪录。据贸易公司Meir Commodities India Pvt.董事 总经理拉希尔·谢赫分析，2025-26年度巴西糖产量预计将降至3900万至4000万吨区间，低于此前市场普 遍预期的4100万吨。这一调整主要基于作物生长初期遭遇大面积干旱天气，导致单产水平出现下滑。 报告同时指出，若要推动糖价形成持续上行趋势，市场需要看到确凿证据证明巴西实际产量远低于巴西 蔗糖产业协会(Unica)当前公布的数据水平。目前市场正密切关注产区天气变化与作物生长进度，任何 产量不及预期的信号都可能加剧价格波动。 截至发稿，纽约原糖价格上涨 1.9%，至每磅 16.81 美分。伦敦白糖价格上涨1.6%;纽约可可价格上涨， 阿拉比卡咖啡价格下跌。 谢赫特别指出，当前市场价格还受到巴基斯坦实物采购需求的支撑。此外，作为全球第二大产糖国，印 度2024-25年度的糖出口政策备受关注——本年度出口窗口将于9月30日关闭，而新产季出口预计最早明 年2月才能启动，这意味着未来五个月全球贸易流将 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5608 | 35 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 306587 | -571 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 17853 | -387 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -37611 | -1429 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 -35 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 现货市场 | | 4398 5584 | | 4474 5683 | -34 -45 | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) -46 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5815 | /吨) -10 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) | 5960 | 10 | | | 现货价:白 ...

作者：王琪瑶 从业资格证号：F03113363 交易咨询证号：Z0018762 研究联系方式：wangqiyao@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 | 核心观点 | 短期偏空 | 7月上半月巴西中南部糖产量超预期，对原糖形成压制。国内配额外利润打开，7-8月进口糖加速到港，推动反 套到位，关注内外正套策略。中期处于寻底过程。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国外生产 | 偏空 | 25/26榨季巴西基本定产4100万吨；印度24/25产量不及预期但25/26存增产预期达3500万吨；泰国维持小幅增产 。 | | 国内产销 | 偏多 | 截至6月底，全国累计产糖1116万吨，同比增120万吨；累计销糖890万吨。 | | 进口利润 | 偏空 | 配额外利润打开，5月后进口放量，8月预期达到顶峰，9月回落。 | | 整体库存 | | 中性偏多6月全国工业库存226万吨，同期低位。 | | 醇油 | | 中性偏多醇油比小幅抬升至0.6768，乙醇存在微弱优势，接近平衡。 | | 原白价差 | 中性 | 原白价差在113美元/吨， ...

白糖产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5573 | 0 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 307158 | 6182 -5244 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 18240 | -305 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -36182 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | | 4398 | -35 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4474 | -34 -45 | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) -46 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 5584 | | 5683 | | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5825 | /吨) 0 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日 ...

Report Information - Report Title: [White Sugar Weekly Report 20250808] Processed Sugar Captures Market, Spot Quotes Decline Steadily [1][2][10][26][39][62][79][89][105][116][128][141][148] - Date: 2025 - 08 - 08 [1][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR509 contract of white sugar is likely to decline in the short term but has limited downside space, with support at the 5600 price level [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with the SR2509 contract expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range [3]. - Key factors to monitor include Brazil's production, India's production, EU policies, and domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. White Sugar Weekly Data Summary - **Futures Prices**: This week, the 1 - month closing price was 5573 yuan/ton, the 5 - month closing price was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month closing price was 5680 yuan/ton. Compared with intraday prices, the 1 - month price decreased by 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - month price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month price decreased by 53 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the spot prices of white sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 70 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 70 yuan/ton respectively compared with last week [7]. - **Basis**: As of August 8, the basis of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 280 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts was 18,615, a decrease of 858 compared with last week [7]. 2. International Supply Brazil - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The output was set at 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with the previous season, but still within a historically high - output range [32]. - **Production in the 2025/26 Season**: As of the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in the first half of July was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 42 million tons, which will put pressure on raw sugar prices [33]. - **UNICA Bi - weekly Data**: In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the 2025/26 season to the first half of July was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [42][43]. - **Alcohol - to - Oil Ratio and Ethanol - to - Sugar Price**: As of August 1, the alcohol - to - oil ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.57%, and the ethanol - to - sugar price was about 14.10 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 2.04 cents/pound over the ethanol - to - sugar price [58]. - **Export and Inventory**: In July, Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses, a decrease of 4.98% compared with the same period last year. As of August 6, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 5.5777 million tons [77]. As of July 15, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 339,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years [73]. India and Thailand - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, the estimated net sugar production was about 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to reach about 34.9 million tons, an 18% increase [76]. - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar production was 10.0418 million tons, a significant increase compared with last year. In the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. Global Production - **2024/25 Season**: The global sugar supply was still in a loose pattern, but the tightness was marginally reduced from the previous period [87]. - **2025/26 Season**: The global sugar supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions predicting supply surpluses ranging from 115,000 to 7.5 million tons [87]. 3. Domestic Supply - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.56%, and the cumulative sales rate was 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the same period last year [103]. - **Import**: The quota - free import profit window opened earlier, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. In June, the domestic sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons [119]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Import**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. The import of three types of goods under the 170290 tariff item remained at a low level, while the import of two types of goods under the 2106906 tariff item increased significantly [134]. 4. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: The market supply is sufficient, and sugar mills face great pressure in sales. Traders and middlemen have little intention to stock up, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed [143]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national industrial inventory was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [145].

白糖：估值有安全边际 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.27 | 0.24 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 107 | 25 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5930 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 43 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5573 | -94 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 357 | 74 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 11 日 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 ...

巴西政府的农业预测机构Conab在 4 月份表示，2025-2026 年度的甘蔗产量可能总计为 6.634 亿吨，较上 年下降 2%。Covrig称，有人预测产量会低于 6 亿吨。 智通财经APP获悉，由于对全球最大产糖国巴西甘蔗产量下降的担忧，原糖期货在四天内首次上涨。截 至发稿，原糖价格上涨 1.2%，达到每磅 16.20 美分。伦敦市场上，白砂糖价格上涨 1.6%。 Covrig Analytics分析师Claudiu Covrig表示："尽管目前甘蔗压榨量已经相当巨大，因为我们正处于榨季 的高峰期，但持续报告的产量下降可能会导致巴西在第四季度的甘蔗收成突然枯竭。"他还表示，制糖 厂可能会比预期更早耗尽甘蔗供应。 今年总体来看，尽管巴西供应存在一些问题，但受全球供应过剩预期的影响，价格有所下降。不过，由 于巴西雷亚尔走强，这一下降幅度可能会受到限制，因为这提高了乙醇的最低价格门槛。而乙醇的最低 糖价则是指在该价格水平下，对于生产商而言生产乙醇才是具有经济可行性的价格。 糖厂根据乙醇折糖价(即乙醇生产成本折算为原糖价格)与原糖市场价的相对高低，自主调整制糖比。当 乙醇折糖价低于原糖价格时，糖厂倾向于增加原 ...