早盘提示 Morning session notice ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5168 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5165 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5180 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日今日广西白糖现货成交价为 5239 元/吨，下跌 8 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区 | | | | | 间 5250~5320 元/吨，多数下调 10 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5120~5170 元/吨，下 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5560~5900 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2 ...

Core Insights - Guangnong Sugar Industry's subsidiary, Guangxi Nantung Modern Agricultural Development Co., has been focusing on expanding sugarcane planting areas since 2025, integrating party building with production operations to enhance agricultural productivity [1][2] Group 1: Expansion of Sugarcane Planting - The company has completed over 169,000 acres of non-reformed sugarcane planting in 2025, contributing to a total planting area of 1.7 million acres, which is a 9% increase from the previous year [2] - The expansion of sugarcane planting not only revitalizes idle land but also establishes a new industrial pattern characterized by "party leadership, enterprise drive, farmer participation, and mutual benefit" [2] Group 2: Support and Training Initiatives - Guangnong Sugar Industry has initiated a project led by party organization secretaries to address the high costs and farmer concerns regarding the conversion of non-sugarcane land to sugarcane cultivation [1] - The company has organized a service team to promote government subsidy policies and provide on-site training and guidance to farmers, enhancing their confidence in sugarcane cultivation [1][2] Group 3: Future Projections and Goals - For the 2025/2026 sugar season, the company anticipates a sugarcane processing volume of 8.44 million tons, which will strengthen the raw material supply and support rural revitalization [2] - The company aims to continue leveraging party building as a core engine for development, optimizing support policies, and enhancing technical support to invigorate the sugar industry in rural areas [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,185, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 16,144, down 1384, open interest 103,859, up 2180 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,296, down 7, down 0.13%, volume 128, down 102, open interest 838, up 28 [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,168, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 190,426, down 9709, open interest 472,603, up 4628 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5330 (down 10), Kunming 5155 (down 10), Wuhan 5630 (unchanged), Nanning 5300 (down 10), Bayuquan 5460 (down 70), Rizhao 5415 (down 40), Xi'an 5760 (unchanged) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 162, Kunming -13, Wuhan 462, Nanning 132, Bayuquan 292, Rizhao 247, Xi'an 592 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -128, up 3; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, unchanged; SR09 - SR01: Spread -111, up 3 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.17, freight 32.75, in - quota price 4046, out - of - quota price 5125, spread with Liuzhou 205, spread with Rizhao 290, spread with futures 171 [3] - Thailand import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 1.05, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4098, out - of - quota price 5192, spread with Liuzhou 138, spread with Rizhao 223, spread with futures 104 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - Brazil exported 173.76 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average of 10.86 million tons. In January 2025, the export volume was 206.22 million tons, with a daily average of 9.37 million tons [5] - As of January 24, 2026, in the 2025/26 crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, crushing 2489 million tons of sugarcane and producing 232.9 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 26.6 million tons compared to the same period of the previous season [5] - In Yunnan, 2 more sugar mills started operation on January 27, 2026, and 1 more is expected to start this week. As of now, 47 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 crushing season in Yunnan, 2 more than the same period last year [5] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazilian sugar supply pressure will ease as the harvest season approaches. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to higher - than - expected growth, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodities, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestic market: China's sugar production is at its peak, and the output is likely to increase significantly this season. In 2025, China imported 491.88 million tons of sugar, an increase of 56.22 million tons year - on - year. The supply pressure is obvious, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. But considering the low price and cost support, the decline space is limited [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to fluctuate due to supply pressure above and cost support below [9] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, spot prices, basis, and spreads [13][18][20][22][24][26]

| | | | | 20260127申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 黄莹(执业编号：F03148260；投资咨询编号：Z0022869） | | | | | | | | huangying@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | | 前日收盘价 | 5189 | 5172 | 5178 | 14.77 | 14.29 | 14.61 | | | 前2日收盘 价 | 5195 | 5180 | 5185 | 14.73 | 14.32 | 14.63 | | | 涨跌 | -6 | -8 | -7 | 0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | | 期 货 | 涨跌幅% | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.14 | 0.27 | -0.21 | -0.14 | | 市 | 持仓量 | 101679 | 4679 ...

Sugar Industry - In the 2025/26 crushing season, India's ethanol blending ratio in gasoline reached a milestone of 20% in December [2] - Current spot prices for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group range from 5260 to 5330 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5130 to 5180 CNY/ton [2] - The raw sugar market remains in a fluctuating range, with production in the Northern Hemisphere meeting expectations; future attention should be on production conditions in Thailand and India [2] - Domestic spot transactions are slowing down, with continuous crushing and accumulating inventory; market sentiment is average, and a fluctuating market is expected to continue [2] Cotton Industry - On Monday, ICE cotton prices fell by 1.36%, closing at 62.94 cents/pound; Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.51%, closing at 14650 CNY/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 7457 contracts to 795900 contracts [6][7] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 15560 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [6] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with rising risk aversion; precious metals are reaching historical highs, and the US dollar index is weak, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices [7] - Domestically, cotton prices are expected to remain weak before the holiday due to limited stocking by textile enterprises and high inventory levels [7] - The current cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports, indicating ample supply [7]

转自：期货日报 在国内外利空因素压制下，郑糖于1月下半月破位下行，呈现探底走势。短期在供应过剩的压力下，预 计郑糖仍将以弱势震荡为主。 全球糖市供应仍旧过剩 2025/2026榨季全球食糖产量预期总体乐观，食糖主产国预计产量增加，市场正转向供应过剩状态。 巴西本榨季食糖产量维持高位。截至2026年1月初，中南部地区生产已近尾声。尽管甘蔗压榨总量同比 下降2.28%，但糖厂为追求更高收益采取了重糖轻醇策略，将制糖比提升至50.82%，完全抵消了甘蔗单 产与含糖量下降的影响，推动糖产量同比微增0.86%，达到4022.2万吨。 印度本榨季开局强劲。截至2026年1月15日，印度全国糖产量已达1588.5万吨，同比增长21.6%。有利天 气和高产糖率共同推动增长。印度糖业协会预计本榨季食糖总产量可达3500万吨，其中约350万吨将转 产乙醇，净糖产量约3150万吨。印度国内食糖消费量预计2900万吨，加上期初库存，期末库存或达750 万吨。印度政府已批准150万吨食糖出口配额，但因印度国内糖价高企，实际出口情况仍有待观察。 泰国本榨季开榨进度明显慢于2025年同期。截至2026年1月17日，泰国累计入榨甘蔗和糖产量 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,189 | -6 | -0.12% | 17,528 | -5048 | 101,679 | 3058 | | SR01 | | 5,303 | 3 | 0.06% | 230 | 51 | 810 | 98 | | SR05 | | 5,172 | -8 | -0.15% | 200,135 | -848 | 467,975 | 1330 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5340 | 5165 | 5630 | 5310 | ...

作为平衡食糖库存的关键手段，本榨季乙醇转化量同样未达预期。印度糖业协会预计，本榨季乙醇调配 量约为29亿升，远低于行业预期的45亿升。转化量不足直接造成食糖库存积压，进而加剧价格下行压 力。巴拉尼透露，部分地区的食糖出厂价已跌破生产成本，而甘蔗采购成本却在持续攀升。目前甘蔗报 价已涨至每公担355卢比，但同期食糖最低支持价却一直未作调整。印度糖业协会还提出改革乙醇定价 机制的诉求。该协会指出，原料成本占乙醇生产成本的70%-75%，但乙醇定价未能与甘蔗价格上涨同步 调整，直接挤压了酿酒厂的利润空间。 值得注意的是，印度已提前实现20%乙醇汽油掺混(E20)的目标，但乙醇产能过剩问题随之凸显。数据 显示，印度糖料及谷物基乙醇总产能约为200亿升，而满足E20标准的乙醇仅需约110亿升，大量产能处 于闲置状态。 中化新网讯 近日，印度糖业与生物能源制造商协会(ISMA)宣布，正向政府申请16.6亿至22亿美元的联 邦预算支持，用于加速第二代乙醇和可持续航空燃料(SAF)等先进生物燃料的投资布局。 该协会总干事迪帕克·巴拉尼表示，这笔预算资金将主要用于支持先进生物燃料的试点项目、新技术研 发及设备创新，其中约11亿 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs officially issued the "Guidelines for Order Agriculture Contract Norms," marking a significant milestone in standardizing order agriculture contracts across the country [1] - The guidelines aim to provide a clear and comprehensive administrative framework for signing order agriculture contracts, addressing issues such as unclear contract parties, vague terms, and forced bundled sales [1] Group 1: Order Agriculture Model - The core of order agriculture relies on contractual relationships to achieve precise production and sales alignment, allowing farmers to produce according to the needs of buyers [1] - This model effectively addresses key issues faced by farmers, such as variety selection, sales channels, and price expectations, through the integration of capital, management, and production resources [1] - In Guangxi, for example, the coverage rate of sugarcane order agriculture has exceeded 95%, benefiting 5 million sugarcane farmers with an average annual income increase of over 10,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Challenges in Order Agriculture - Order agriculture faces multiple challenges, including frequent contract disputes and risks of non-compliance and fraud [2] - Price fluctuations in agricultural products can lead to unilateral breaches of contract, compounded by structural flaws such as vague terms and unclear responsibilities [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has previously issued risk warnings to protect farmers from scams disguised as order agriculture [2] Group 3: Guidelines for Improvement - The guidelines establish a clear and fair transaction framework by focusing on four dimensions: clarifying parties, standardizing processes, stabilizing expectations, and facilitating rights protection [2] - It requires clear identification of both parties and mandates that the buyer's business license be attached to the contract to help farmers avoid signing with fraudulent entities [3] - The guidelines prohibit forced purchases of specified inputs by buyers, encourage the inclusion of technical standards as contract attachments, and aim to make commitments explicit [3] Group 4: Pricing and Rights Protection - The guidelines advocate for innovative pricing mechanisms, such as "minimum price + market floating price," allowing farmers to share profits during high market prices while ensuring minimum returns during low prices [3] - They emphasize the need for specific and quantifiable acceptance standards to avoid ambiguity and encourage the preservation of samples as evidence [3] - The guidelines also outline equitable liability for breaches and provide multiple dispute resolution methods, offering farmers clear pathways for rights protection [3]

在广东湛江，甘蔗林随风起伏。这片土地所孕育的，不仅有南国特有的"甜蜜"，更有一位企业家用40余 年时光书写的从传统农业到现代产业、从个人冒险到系统风控的深刻变革故事。他，就是广东金岭糖业 集团有限公司（简称金岭集团）董事长林水栖。 3万元与一份"甜蜜"的冒险 1985年，改革开放的春潮在南粤涌动。在湛江麻章，27岁的林水栖做出了一个大胆决定：取出个人存折 上的全部积蓄3万元，投资建厂。 "如果能见到那个年轻的自己，我想用力拍拍他的肩膀，对他说：别怕，你脚下的这片土地，藏着最温 暖的'甜蜜'希望。"40多年后回望，林水栖眼中仍有光。这份希望，不仅关乎一家企业的生存，更连接 着广大蔗农的生计，并指向一个用现代金融工具重塑传统农业的宏大命题。 创业早期，公司风险集中于工厂内部的生产与市场销售，"单点防控"是主要策略。随着金岭集团一步步 成长为农业产业化国家重点龙头企业，年加工白糖达25万吨，林水栖的风险意识发生了根本性转变。 下游以"品牌化"破局，金岭集团不再甘做原料"搬运工"，而是以"湛品"区域品牌为载体，主动对接粤港 澳大湾区市场，完成从"卖原料"到"卖品牌""卖文化"的价值跃迁。 "其中的核心，是让期货从一种 ...