Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both sugar futures and spot prices have risen, driven by increased sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil [1] - As of Friday's close, the white sugar futures contract 2601 settled at 5540 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [1] - In the Guangxi Nanning region, the spot price of white sugar was 5890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - An industry survey of 11 analysts predicts that Brazil's central-south region will crush 49.5 million tons of sugarcane in the second half of August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [1] - Sugar production is expected to reach 3.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, while ethanol production is forecasted at 2.4 billion liters, a decrease of 2.5% [1] - Domestic forecasts indicate that 48.94 million tons of raw sugar will arrive at ports outside the quota by August 2025, with 30.43 million tons expected in September [1] Group 3 - Market analysis suggests that the acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil since August has led to a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production, with a record high sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - Despite the pressure on raw sugar futures prices due to increased production expectations in the northern hemisphere, the ethanol market provides some support, limiting the short-term downside for raw sugar [1] - The domestic sugar market has faced poor production and sales in August, raising concerns about potential policy relaxations on syrup, leading to a weaker market trend [1]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 15 日 白糖：区间震荡为主 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 国际市场：ISO 首次预计 25/26 榨季全球食糖供应短缺 23 万吨，24/25 榨季全球食糖供应短缺 488 万吨。 UNICA 数据显示，截至 8 月 16 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部甘蔗累积压榨量同比下降 6.6 个百分点，累计产 糖 2289 万吨（-112 万吨），累计 MIX52.51% 同比提高 3.37 个百分点。ISMA/NFCSF 预计，25/26 榨季印度 总糖产量 3490 万吨，24/25 榨季为 2950 万吨（+540 万吨）。OCSB 数据显示，24/25 榨季泰国累计产糖 1008 万吨（+127 万吨）。 【趋势强度】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.52 | 0.05 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 0 | 26 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 | 美分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The price of the ICE US Sugar October contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [5][11][15]. - Internationally, institutions predict that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. Downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking stage, and rigid demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the decline of sugar prices may be limited [5]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to focus on include domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: International sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, sales in August were lower than usual, but inventory was low. Downstream stocking may support prices, and short - term price decline may be limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar October contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 85,805 lots, an increase of 11,067 lots from the previous week [11]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot**: The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 51,979 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11,599 [18][23]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 23 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 430 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 177 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [46]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [50]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an acceleration of 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [54]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In July 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [58]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but no specific data is given [59]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [64].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market Quotes - New York raw sugar futures continued to rebound on Monday. The main October contract closed up 1.34% at 15.84 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main December contract closed up 1.24% at $463.60 per ton. The rebound of sugar prices is more of a technical retracement [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract oscillated at a low level. The 01 contract closed at 5,535 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan or 0.25%, with an increase of 581 contracts. Domestic spot prices in production areas remained flat, with Nanning sugar quoted at 5,940 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5,770 yuan [8]. Futures Contracts Details | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601 | 5,535 yuan/ton | 14 yuan | 0.25% | 389,187 contracts | 581 contracts | | SR605 | 5,507 yuan/ton | 4 yuan | 0.07% | 36,793 contracts | 307 contracts | | US Sugar 10 | 15.84 cents/pound | 0.21 cents | 1.34% | 286,293 contracts | -22,382 contracts | | US Sugar 03 | 16.49 cents/pound | 0.23 cents | 1.41% | 351,758 contracts | 15,812 contracts | [7] Group 3: Industry News - The German Sugar Industry Association (WVZ) estimated that Germany's beet refined sugar production in the 2025/26 season will drop 4.9% to 4.4 million tons from 4.63 million tons in the previous season due to a 9.3% reduction in beet planting area to about 350,100 hectares. The average sugar content of beets may rise from 16.3% to 17.2% [9]. - Brazil exported 769,037.60 tons of sugar in the first week of September, with a daily average export volume of 153,807.52 tons, a 17% decrease from the daily average in September last year [9]. - The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia is expected to start production around September 12. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season may be adjusted downwards but is estimated to be over 700,000 tons. The first sugar factory in Xinjiang may postpone its start - up to around National Day. The sugar production in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season is still expected to be around the record - high level of 800,000 tons [9][10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and trading positions of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing trend of sugarcane imports in China and the exploration of international cooperation models in sugar production, particularly the "foreign planting + domestic processing" approach [1] - COFCO Sugar's Deputy General Manager, Hu Yueyang, emphasized the establishment of large-scale raw material bases in ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, by several sugar companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing trend of sugarcane imports by China and the exploration of international cooperation models in sugar production, particularly the "foreign sugarcane planting + domestic sugar production" approach [1] - Hu Yueyang, Deputy General Manager of COFCO Sugar Trade Department, emphasized the establishment of large-scale raw material bases in ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, by several sugar companies, including COFCO Sugar [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sugarcane industry in China, particularly in Guangxi and Yunnan, is evolving towards a circular economy, aiming to maximize the value derived from sugarcane beyond traditional sugar production [1][2] - Guangxi's sugarcane waste, known as bagasse, is being transformed into high-value materials such as biomass porous carbon for supercapacitors, showcasing innovation in waste utilization [1] - The comprehensive utilization rate of bagasse in Guangxi has reached 100%, indicating a significant advancement in the value chain from paper production to high-end supercapacitor materials [1] Group 2: Company Innovations - Green Cycle New Materials (Yunnan) Co., Ltd. is converting bagasse into biodegradable tableware and packaging materials, expanding its market reach into medical supplies and pet litter [2] - Anqi Yeast (Cruz) Co., Ltd. processes sugar molasses into high-activity dry yeast and yeast extracts, consuming nearly 250,000 tons of molasses annually and exporting products to over 130 countries [2] - Baile Qibao Rum Company is utilizing sugar molasses as a key ingredient for rum production, with an expected annual output value of 500 million yuan from its circular economy industrial park project [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The circular economy in Guangxi's sugar industry is projected to achieve an output value of 5.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.15% and accounting for 13.99% of the total sugarcane industry output [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, New York raw sugar futures weakened significantly, with the主力 October contract down 2.06% to 15.70 cents per pound. The ICE white sugar futures主力 December contract in London fell 1.2% to $462.30 per ton. Favorable weather in Brazil for sugarcane harvesting and increased sugar production in Brazil, along with the weakening of oil prices, have negatively impacted sugar prices [7]. - The主力 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,523 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan or 0.31%, with an increase of 5,022 contracts in positions. Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. Today, Zhengzhou sugar 01 continued to decline but showed low - level oscillation. The price is close to the cost lower limit of sugar mills in Guangxi and the previous low in June, providing some support. After the market, speculative funds continued to increase short positions, contributing to the decline [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR601 closed at 5,523 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan or 0.31%, with an increase of 5,022 contracts in positions; SR605 closed at 5,509 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan or 0.16%, with an increase of 1,351 contracts in positions. For US sugar, the 10 - month contract closed at 15.70 cents per pound, down 0.33 cents or 2.06%, with a decrease of 8,899 contracts in positions, and the 03 - month contract closed at 16.34 cents per pound, down 0.31 cents or 1.86%, with an increase of 10,478 contracts in positions [7]. 2. Industry News - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia may be adjusted downward due to continuous heavy rainfall in August but is still expected to be over 700,000 tons, higher than the 663,500 tons in the 24/25 season. The start - up time of the first sugar mill in Inner Mongolia is expected to be around September 12. The start - up time of the first sugar mill in Xinjiang in the 25/26 season may be postponed to around National Day, and the estimated sugar production in Xinjiang remains around the record - high level of 800,000 tons [11]. - Brazil exported 3.744 million tons of sugar in August, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47%. From April to August in the 2025/26 crushing season, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 14.506 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [11]. - The chairman of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) stated that the export parity price of white sugar should be $500 per ton, and that of raw sugar should be over $19 per ton [11]. - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending September 3, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 87, up from 72 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.207 million tons, up from 2.7221 million tons the previous week [11]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats of the主力 contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16][19]

Core Insights - Brazil's exports to the US dropped significantly by 18.5% in August, amounting to a loss of over 600 million USD, affecting key products like sugar, iron ore, and aircraft [1] - In contrast, Brazil's exports to countries such as China, India, and Mexico surged, with the highest increase reaching 58% [1] - The shift in Brazil's export strategy raises questions about the effectiveness of US tariffs and suggests a potential change in the global trade landscape [1] Summary by Categories Export Performance - Brazil's exports to the US fell by 18.5% in August, equating to a decrease of over 600 million USD [1] - Key products impacted include sugar, iron ore, and aircraft, which were previously strong sellers in the US market [1] Market Shifts - Exports to China, India, and Mexico saw a significant increase, with the highest growth rate at 58% [1] - This indicates a strategic pivot by Brazil towards other markets in response to US tariffs [1] Global Trade Implications - The rapid adjustment in Brazil's export focus may signal a broader shift in global trade dynamics, potentially accelerating the "de-Americanization" of supply chains [1] - The ongoing tariff wars raise questions about who the real winners are, as high tariffs may isolate the US further [1]