华鑫证券近日发布化学制品研究报告：合成氨上涨8.58%，锂电池电解液上涨5.71%，苯 胺上涨3.90%，无水氢氟酸上涨3.80%。截至9月26日收盘，布伦特原油价格为70.13美元/ 桶，较上周上涨5.17%；WTI原油价格为65.72美元/桶，较上周上涨4.85%。预计2025年国际 油价中枢值将维持在65-70美金。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 合成氨、苯胺等涨幅居前，天然气、硫酸等跌幅较大本周涨幅较大的产品：合成氨（河 北金源，8.58%），锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，5.71%），苯胺（华东地 区，3.90%），无水氢氟酸（华东地区，3.80%），金属硅（云南金属硅3303，2.88%），萤 石粉-湿粉（华东地区，2.76%），DMF（华东，2.58%），涤纶工业丝（1000D/192F）（高 强型，2.35%），燃料油（新加坡高硫180cst（美元/吨)，2.22%），醋酸（华东地区， 2.07%）。 分子行业表现超预期，例如润滑油行业等。此外，建议重视草甘膦、化肥、进口替代、纯内 需、高股息资产等方向的投资机会。具体建议如下：首先是建议重视有望进入景气周期的草 甘膦行业。草甘膦行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a novel method for detecting ethephon residues in compound fertilizers using Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS), addressing the lack of standardized methods for fertilizer matrices and providing a reliable technical foundation for regulatory monitoring and quality control [2][4][42]. Group 1: Method Development - A new UHPLC-MS/MS method was established to detect ethephon residues in compound fertilizers, optimizing key parameters based on SN/T 4522-2016 [4][7]. - The method replaced alkaline elution with an acidified extraction system (acetonitrile-0.1% formic acid), improving recovery rates from undetectable levels to 93.8%-104.5% [4][6]. - The method demonstrated excellent linearity (r=0.9993) within a range of 2-200 μg/L, with a quantitation limit of 0.005 mg/kg and relative standard deviation (RSD) of 1.3%-3.9% [4][29]. Group 2: Importance of Ethephon in Fertilizers - Ethephon is often added to fertilizers to enhance crop growth and development, but its presence raises concerns regarding potential residues in agricultural products [5][6]. - The complexity of compound fertilizers, which contain multiple nutrients and additives, necessitates effective monitoring of ethephon to ensure safety and compliance [5][7]. Group 3: Practical Application and Results - Actual sample testing revealed ethephon residues in commercial compound fertilizers, with detected levels of 0.008 mg/kg and 0.015 mg/kg in two batches [39][41]. - The study emphasizes the need for regulatory frameworks to monitor ethephon residues in fertilizers, highlighting the method's practical applicability for ensuring agricultural safety [42].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Pioneer Top Holdings Limited has increased its stake in China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) by purchasing 428,000 shares at an average price of HKD 7.19 per share, resulting in a total investment of approximately HKD 3.0773 million [1] - After the purchase, Pioneer Top Holdings Limited's total shareholding increased to 435,741,999 shares, raising its ownership percentage from 33.92% to 33.96% [1][3] - The transaction took place on September 26, 2025, and the disclosure was made on October 2, 2025 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to achieve high-quality development while maintaining reasonable growth, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [2][3] Industry Growth and Structure - The plan requires an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value-added from 2025 to 2026, while pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [2][3] - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing supply-side dynamics [3] Capacity Control and Market Dynamics - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and rational determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol sector [3] - Future supply of refining and ethylene will be significantly limited, potentially optimizing the competitive landscape of the industry [3] Chemical Products and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key investment directions in the chemical sector, including potassium fertilizers, pesticides, refrigerants, and fluorinated liquids, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and resource scarcity [5][6] - The global potassium fertilizer industry is characterized by high concentration and tight supply-demand balance, with companies like "Yara International" expected to maintain high prices [6] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see price recovery due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [6] Emerging Trends and Policy Support - The plan supports the development of new chemical materials, such as electronic chemicals and high-performance fibers, to meet the needs of emerging industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [3] - The fertilizer industry is encouraged to strengthen raw material supply and stabilize production, ensuring a reliable supply during critical agricultural periods [4] Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported a decline of 8.4% from the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [5] - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, but demand remains weak, highlighting the need for continued monitoring of economic conditions [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth of China's agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer production, highlighting a significant increase in output and market trends from 2025 to 2031 [1]. Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers (in pure terms) in China reached 5.26 million tons in July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of these fertilizers was 38.254 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 10.3% [1]. Company Insights - The article lists several publicly traded companies in the fertilizer sector, including Salt Lake Co. (000792), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntianhua (600096), Luxi Chemical (000830), Xinyangfeng (000902), Stanley (002588), Sichuan Meifeng (000731), and Yangmei Chemical (600691) [1]. - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive analysis and strategic outlook for the fertilizer industry in China, covering the period from 2025 to 2031 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Batian Co., Ltd. is actively working on expanding its phosphate mining capacity, indicating strong growth prospects for the company [1] - The current safety permit for the Xiaogaozai phosphate mine is 2 million tons per year, with plans to expand to 2.9 million tons per year [1] - The company is currently experiencing normal production levels, with product demand exceeding supply, reflecting a positive market condition [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan fell below the previous lows, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was weak. Before the National Day, the purchasing sentiment was difficult to maintain at a high level, showing regional differentiation. The overall order intake of upstream manufacturers was okay, and the subsequent prices are expected to be mainly stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in the Northeast. In the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. In September, the export window period is still ongoing, and the export of urea is accelerating. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On September 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,664 yuan/ton (-5); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was - 64 yuan/ton (-5); the basis in Henan was - 54 yuan/ton (+5); the basis in Jiangsu was - 64 yuan/ton (-15) [1] Urea Production - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%). The urea production is running at a high level, and in the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose [1][2] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 29, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%) [1] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, and the export of urea is ongoing with an accelerating rhythm, and the port inventory is being depleted. In August, 800,000 tons were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected. As of September 29, 2025, the export profit was 1,070 yuan/ton (-88) [1][2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (-3.36%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+3.80%); the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53). The industrial demand for compound fertilizers has low enthusiasm for purchasing and only purchases at low prices, while melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900), and the inventory of port samples was 496,300 tons (-19,700). The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and price fluctuations of urea in China from 2025 to 2031, indicating a significant decline in prices compared to previous years [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for urea (medium and small granules) is 1699.8 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.91% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.11% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years was in mid-September 2021, reaching 2650.2 yuan/ton [1] Historical Data - A statistical chart detailing the price changes of urea (medium and small granules) from 2019 to mid-September 2025 is referenced, showcasing the volatility and trends in the market [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and investment potential in the Chinese compound fertilizer industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for compound fertilizers (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer with a nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium content of 45%) is 3170 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.06% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.18% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years was in mid-September 2022, reaching 3805.4 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, with demand support limited, and price drivers are weak. BZ2603 should follow styrene and oil prices in a volatile manner [1]. - Styrene supply is expected to increase, and demand support may be limited. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. EB11 should be treated as a short - term short opportunity on price rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX supply is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and prices are under pressure [6]. - PTA new device commissioning is postponed, and there is short - term support for the basis due to downstream restocking demand [7]. - MEG is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter, with high supply in October [6]. - Short - fiber has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern, and prices fluctuate with limited up - and - down drivers [8]. - Bottle - chip may enter a downward phase in the fourth quarter, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE's current maintenance is at a high point, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. The 01 contract has high inventory pressure. PP has high production losses, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, the demand is lackluster [10][11]. Urea - The urea market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with high production, weak demand, and a downward - trending price [15]. Methanol - The core contradiction in the methanol market is the game between high current supply and the expected supply tightening due to potential Iranian gas restrictions. The near - term contract's downside is limited, and it is necessary to closely monitor Iranian device dynamics [17]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to supply - side concerns. The market's view on supply has shifted, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Band - trading is recommended [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic soda has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, there may be a change in the supply - demand pattern due to downstream capacity expansion [28]. - PVC's domestic demand is weak, but exports relieve some pressure. The price has limited downside during the peak season, and cost support is at the bottom [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and most pure benzene and styrene - related prices and spreads also changed slightly [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of most pure benzene and styrene downstream products increased [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while styrene inventory increased [1]. - **Industry Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - **PX**: PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook is weak [4][6]. - **PTA**: PTA prices were stable, and processing fees decreased slightly. New device commissioning was postponed [5][7]. - **MEG**: MEG prices changed slightly, and it is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices fluctuate [8]. - **Bottle - chip**: There is a potential new device commissioning in the fourth quarter, and demand support is insufficient [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed slightly, and spreads also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE and PP device start - up rates increased, and downstream weighted start - up rates also increased [10][11]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea prices decreased slightly, and basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [15]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed slightly, and spreads and basis also changed [17]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream and downstream start - up rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined product prices decreased, and spreads and cracking spreads also changed [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC start - up rates and industry profits changed [24]. - **Demand**: Downstream start - up rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [25][26]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories changed [27].