宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2025 年 10 月 21 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治周期：美国国内政治转向与全球外交格局变化 美国正经历长达十几年的 "向右转动" 周期，是对 1992 年冷战结束后 33 年发 展方向的反向矫正。冷战后欧美因外部威胁消除后，广泛出现自满情绪，国内在性 别、移民、福利等意识形态及政策上的一些争议性议题逐渐凸显，尤其在持极端保 守立场的基督教群体眼中，此类社会变化已趋近于堕落，偏离了传统价值观的轨道。 保守人士如 Charlie Kirk 等在过去十年以来致力于推动回归清教徒立国之本，体现 美国例外主义。美国对旧约重视远超欧洲，因此犹太人在美国地位较高。以特朗普 为首的 MAGA 阵营与以色列关系密切，包括迁都耶路撒冷、偏袒内塔利亚胡打击 哈马斯，这是意识形态上"向右转"的体现。特朗普执政风格并不优雅，类似历史 上的麦卡锡主义。虽然必要，但是如果做过头的话，不排除将来被历史清算。特朗 普下 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes that AI's value lies in empowerment rather than replacement, with human-AI collaboration becoming the central mode of future society [1][4]. AI Uncertainty - There are three key uncertainties in the AI field: the feasibility of achieving general artificial intelligence, the trend of centralized versus decentralized computing deployment, and the impact of AI on employment [3]. - The possibility of general artificial intelligence remains uncertain, with a likelihood of a combination of specialized weak AIs rather than a single general intelligence system [3]. - Future AI computing resources are expected to be more distributed across edge or local devices rather than centralized in cloud computing centers [3]. Employment Impact - Data indicates that AI has not led to job losses; instead, it primarily empowers workers, with productivity increasing by an average of 25% [4]. - The collaboration between humans and AI, especially in knowledge-intensive sectors like healthcare and education, will become the norm [4]. Frontline Development Directions - Four key development directions for AI in the next five to ten years include: 1. Symbolic reasoning, combining top-down reasoning with bottom-up neural networks for complex cognitive tasks [6]. 2. Spatial intelligence, enabling AI to understand and operate in the physical world [6]. 3. Emotional intelligence, allowing AI to recognize and interact with human emotions [6]. 4. Autonomous agents that can complete tasks independently and form complex ecosystems [6]. "Protopia" Concept - The "Protopia" concept suggests a focus on continuous improvement and long-term optimism, advocating for gradual innovations rather than striving for an unattainable utopia [7]. Gradual AI Adoption - The adoption of AI is a gradual process requiring adjustments in organizational structures and workflows, with early beneficiaries being roles like programmers and customer service [8]. - The "three tries rule" suggests that initial attempts at AI application may be costly and prone to failure, but subsequent attempts can lead to success and optimization [8]. "Cool China" Vision - The concept of "Cool China" suggests that China can lead trends and become an attractive nation through soft power accumulation [10]. - Key paths to achieving "Cool China" include creating excellent products, enhancing cultural output, and developing attractive urban environments [11]. - The vision includes an AI-empowered society characterized by efficiency, fairness, and integrity, with China positioned to build a data-driven decision-making model [11].

智通财经APP讯，希玛医疗(03309)发布公告，于2025年10月21日，该公司斥资38.13万港元回购20万股 股份，每股回购价格为1.89-1.92港元。 ...

中国金融智库特邀研究员余丰慧接受证券时报记者采访时表示："拓展数字服务消费，利用人工智能等技术促进服务消费，不仅是当前经济转型的重要措施， 也是推动消费升级的明确路径。" 目前文旅、医疗等服务消费场景已经率先迈向"智能新时代"。 走进医院，智能导检系统实时显示院内信息、通过算法推荐就诊者有序检查，住院患者能用智能床旁边的交互终端便捷查询费用和电子病历，甚至还能在线 点餐、调控灯光亮度和室内温度。而在智慧药房，机器人在狭窄的空间内"接力"将药品运输到发药机，机械臂快速按处方取药…… 这种以前在科幻大片里才能看到的场景正在走进现实，人工智能（AI）等信息技术正在深入服务消费的各个场景，带来消费新体验。近日，商务部等9部门联 合发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》（以下简称《措施》），明确提出拓展数字服务消费，鼓励电商平台创新线上线下融合的数字服务消费场景， 开展"人工智能+消费"典型应用案例推荐，持续打造信息消费新产品新场景新热点。 政策的春风激荡起层层涟漪，标志着服务消费的数字化、智能化变革将从企业自发探索走向政策有力牵引的新阶段。 服务消费迈向智能新时代 什么是数字服务消费？指的是把人工智能、虚拟现实、增强 ...

证券代码：002004 证券简称：华邦健康 华邦生命健康股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20251020 投资者关系活动 类别 特定对象调研 分析师会议 媒体采访 业绩说明会 新闻发布会 路演活动 现场参观 其他（电话会议） 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 具体名单详见附件 时间 2025 年 10 月 20 日（周一）下午 15:00~16:00 地点 进门财经（https://www.comein.cn/home/index） 上市公司接待人 员姓名 1、华邦健康董事会秘书 胡菁菁 2、普瑞金董事会秘书 王靖 3、华邦健康 IR 阳星月 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 1、公司目前的战略规划。 公司成立于 1992 年，是国内皮肤临床用药及皮肤健康领域领 先企业，经过三十多年的耕耘，形成了以大健康产业为核心，农 化、新材料、旅游三家上市公司独立发展的模式。目前公司业务 范围涵盖医药、医疗、农化、新材料、旅游等五大领域，旗下共 控股三家上市公司，分别为颖泰生物(920819.BJ)、凯盛新材 (301069.SZ)、丽江股份(002033.SZ)；控股一家新三板企业秦岭 旅游（870256.NQ）；参股一家 ...

本报记者 陈强 全力建设北京大兴国际机场临空经济区等六大产业功能区，划定荟聚商务科技集聚区等五个产业集聚 区，谋划花园城市永定湾等三大发展新片区……大兴区将全域发展新质生产力。这是记者从昨天举行的 北京市"一把手发布·京华巡礼"系列主题新闻发布会上了解到的。 今年年初，本市"一区一策"制定平原新城高质量发展实施方案，为大兴明确了"聚焦开放改革示范，重 点建设协同发展示范区、繁荣开放国门新城"的发展蓝图。大兴区委副书记、区长、北京大兴国际机场 临空经济区（大兴）管理委员会主任刘洋表示，大兴区已明确发展临空经济、生物医药、未来能源、数 字经济、商业航天、农林科技六大主导产业。 今年落地高质量项目突破1000个 结合六大主导产业，大兴区谋划了"6+5+3"产业发展蓝图。 "6"是指大兴机场临空区、大兴生物医药产业基地、北京数字经济示范区、国际氢能示范区、北京中日 创新合作示范区、北京商业航天产业基地六大产业功能区。"5"是指荟聚商务科技集聚区、国家新媒体 产业基地、念坛国际金融商务区、京南物流基地、京南农林科技园五个优势突出、特色鲜明的产业集聚 区。"3"是指花园城市永定湾、大兴国际旅游度假区、产业协同发展示范区三 ...

英科医疗(300677.SZ)公告，公司全资子公司英科医疗国际(香港)有限公司(简称"英科医疗国际")拟与华 平投资签署认购协议，以自有资金参与投资Warburg Pincus Global Growth 15,L.P.。合伙企业的目标募集 规模为170亿美元，其中，英科医疗国际将作为该合伙企业的有限合伙人(LP)认缴出资7000万美元。合 伙企业旨在投资于医疗健康、能源转型、商业服务、工业、科技、消费及与可持续发展等领域的成长资 本交易、早期成长平台、收购、资本重组及其他特殊情形。 ...

尽管官方数据显示中国GDP尚未赶超美国，但不少美国学者却提出了颇具争议的观点，中国的GDP被"人为压低"了。 若采用更科学、全面的统计方法，中国经济的真实规模或许已经接近甚至超越美国。 这样的论断让世界经济学界炸开了锅：如果属实，那么全球经济格局将发生翻天覆地的变化。 究竟是什么让美国学者作出这样的判断？ 关于"中国GDP被低估"的争论，首先要从统计方法的不同说起。 虽然GDP看似是个统一的经济指标，但在不同国家，其计算口径和标准却千差万别。 例如，美国在统计GDP时，会把部分非市场活动也算进去，包括毒品交易、非法赌博、卖淫、甚至居民自住房屋的"虚拟租金"。 这些行为虽然不合法，却被美国经济学界认为"产生经济效益"，因而被纳入国民经济总量。而中国的统计体系则严格排除这类"灰色经济"，确保GDP仅反映 合法、可验证的生产与服务活动。 美国的服务业比重高达70%以上，其中法律、医疗、教育、金融等高价行业的收费极高。例如美国的律师时薪常常是中国的数十倍，大学学费是中国的二十 倍，医疗费用更是令人咋舌。 这些行业高昂的价格虽然推高了美国的GDP，却未必代表实际生活水平更高。 反观中国，虽然服务业占比相对较低，但实体经 ...

Core Viewpoint - General Electric (GE) is poised for a positive earnings report, with expectations of increased earnings per share (EPS) and revenue driven by strong demand in its Aerospace division [1][3][4]. Financial Performance Expectations - GE Aerospace is expected to report an EPS of $1.46, reflecting a 27% increase from the previous year, and revenue of approximately $10.4 billion, a 15.6% growth from $8.94 billion [3][6]. - The company has a history of exceeding earnings expectations, with an average earnings surprise of 16.1% over the last four quarters [4]. Market Reaction to Earnings - Historically, GE's stock has shown a 60% chance of a one-day gain following earnings announcements, with a median positive movement of 5.1% and a maximum single-day gain of 8.3% [2][6]. - The anticipation of favorable stock performance is linked to the company's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations [2]. Financial Metrics - GE's financial metrics indicate strong investor confidence, with a P/E ratio of 41.29 and a price-to-sales ratio of 7.65 [5]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.99, and the current ratio is 1.04, suggesting a balanced financial position that supports growth opportunities [5][6].

Core Insights - The Xi'an High-tech Zone has launched a new round of "pro-business and enterprise assistance" visits to optimize the business environment and promote enterprise development [1][5] - The initiative aims to address urgent issues faced by enterprises and enhance communication between government and businesses through the distribution of "pro-business and enterprise assistance" service cards [3][6] Group 1: Activities and Implementation - The "pro-business and enterprise assistance" service card serves as a key tool for facilitating communication, providing contact information for dedicated personnel to assist businesses [3] - The visits cover various industries including machinery manufacturing, electronic technology, chemicals, and healthcare, with officials engaging directly with business leaders and employees to understand their operational challenges and future plans [5][6] Group 2: Issues Identified - Companies such as Xi'an Xutong Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. reported issues like inadequate basic services and parking shortages, while Yanfeng Automotive Interior Systems (Xi'an) Co., Ltd. highlighted challenges related to limited space, high rental costs, and supply chain stability [5][6] - A total of over 100 enterprise-related requests were collected during the visits, involving 298 visiting officials and 498 enterprises across 8 participating parks [6] Group 3: Support Measures - Officials provided tailored support by interpreting policies aimed at stabilizing employment and assisting enterprises, coordinating resources to address challenges in applying for "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" status [6] - Recommendations included accelerating applications for "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" status, exploring domestic markets, and connecting businesses with financial institutions to reduce financing costs [6] - The initiative aims to establish a long-term service mechanism to continuously improve support for enterprises and contribute to high-quality regional economic development [6]