而展望2025年及后续几年： 1）需求端随着全球步入降息周期，已逐步复苏，业绩端陆续兑现； 2）供给端因部分头部企业放缓扩产进程，中小企业部分关停，产能持续去化，行业整体趋向动态平衡 发展； 3）业绩端，2025年部分企业大订单高基数影响已基本消化出清，CXO行业将进入平稳增长阶段。 从外部宏观环境来看，情况也有所缓解，估值陆续修复。2025年4月受关税政策冲击，部分出海CXO公 司出现较大幅度回撤。从业务层面看，CRO业务属服务类业务，不受商品关税影响；CDMO特别是商 业化项目直发美国市场的占比较少，预计影响有限。供应链的转移非一朝一夕能够落地的。目前看出海 CXO仍然是增长确定性更强的，同时部分企业已积极采取措施以规避风险，如剥离美国受限业务，以 欧洲、东南亚作为国际化产能新方向等。随着中美关税的边际缓和，CXO企业已逐步迎来估值修复。 另外，可关注内需修复及行业出清后集中度提升。国内创新药支持政策频出，行业需求有望逐步回暖。 同时H股市场的回暖、科创板第五套标准的重启、创新药BD的火热等均为早期研发的需求复苏提供新 动能。此外国内CXO企业经历几年需求遇冷、价格竞争，倒逼企业降本增效，成本结构的改善具 ...

Group 1 - Domestic leading CXO companies have recently announced strong growth in their Q2 performance, attracting attention to pharmaceutical-related ETFs [1] - The Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF (588860) has shown active trading, with an average daily turnover of 22.46 million yuan since July [1] - The management fee for Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF is 0.45%, and the custody fee is 0.07%, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Biopharmaceutical Index [1] Group 2 - The Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Biopharmaceutical Index, which includes 50 large-cap companies in the biopharmaceutical and biomedical engineering sectors [1] - As of July 29, the biopharmaceutical index covers 74.6% of the chemical pharmaceuticals and medical devices industries [1] - The introduction of the "market value + R&D" listing standard on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has significantly aided innovative pharmaceutical companies in overcoming funding bottlenecks and accelerating R&D results [1] Group 3 - Overseas CXO leaders have reported stable R&D conditions and slightly raised their annual performance guidance for 2025 [2] - The CXO industry is transitioning from a recovery phase to a performance inflection point, primarily driven by overseas revenue [2] - With a more favorable external environment and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, the CXO sector is expected to experience a comprehensive recovery due to ongoing global innovation in drug development and supportive domestic policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities highlights that WuXi AppTec's TEDIS business is driving significant growth, leading the company to raise its full-year performance guidance [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.56 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.9% [1] - In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.9% [1] Business Growth Drivers - The strong growth in the company's chemical business is primarily driven by the high demand in the TEDIS segment [1] - The demand for peptides and oligonucleotides remains robust, with a rich order backlog [1] - The company plans to increase its peptide solid-phase synthesis capacity to over 100,000 liters by the end of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the TEDIS business in the next 1-2 years [1] Global Market Position - Approximately 85% of the company's revenue comes from overseas clients, establishing it as a fully globalized and competitive leader in the CRDMO sector [1] - Despite geopolitical concerns, the business growth from U.S. clients remains strong in H1 2025, alleviating market worries and reinforcing the company's stable position in the global supply chain [1]

金十数据7月28日讯，药明康德公告，截至2025年6月末，公司持续经营业务在手订单人民币566.9亿 元，同比增长37.2%。报告期内，公司持续经营收入人民币204.1亿元，其中来自美国客户收入人民币 140.3亿元，同比增长38.4%；来自欧洲客户收入人民币23.3亿元，同比增长9.2%；来自中国客户收入人 民币31.5亿元，同比下降5.2%；来自其他地区客户收入人民币9.0亿元，同比增长7.6%。 药明康德：来自美国客户收入人民币140.3亿元，同比增长38.4% ...

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec expects capital expenditures to reach 7-8 billion yuan by 2025, driven by business growth and efficiency improvements [1] - The company anticipates an increase in free cash flow from 4-5 billion yuan to 5-6 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Summary by Category Financial Projections - Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between 7 billion and 8 billion yuan [1] - Free cash flow is forecasted to rise from 4 billion-5 billion yuan to 5 billion-6 billion yuan by 2025 [1]

金十数据7月28日讯，药明康德公告，公司预计2025年持续经营业务收入重回双位数增长，增速从10- 15%上调至13-17%。公司预计全年整体收入从人民币415-430亿元上调至人民币425-435亿元。公司将聚 焦CRDMO核心业务，持续提高生产经营效率。报告期内，化学业务实现毛利人民币799,844.71万元， 毛利率较去年同期上升5.5%，主要得益于生产工艺持续优化以及临床后期和商业化项目增长带来的产 能效率不断提升。测试业务实现毛利人民币66,439.04万元，毛利率较去年同期下降12.1%，主要受市场 价格因素影响。生物学业务实现毛利人民币43,859.63万元，毛利率较去年同期下降1.0%。 药明康德：预计2025年持续经营业务收入重回双位数增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Nuotai Aosaino Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Nuotai Biopharma") is facing severe penalties for information disclosure violations, including fabricating revenue in its 2021 annual report and falsifying documents related to the issuance of convertible bonds, resulting in a total fine of 76.2 million yuan from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1][5]. Group 1: Violations and Penalties - The CSRC found that Nuotai Biopharma falsely reported 30 million yuan in revenue from a technology transfer to Zhejiang Huabei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., which lacked the financial capability to pay for the transaction [2][3]. - The inflated revenue led to a 25.95 million yuan overstatement in total profit, representing 20.64% of the profit disclosed in the company's 2021 annual report [3]. - The penalties imposed include a fine of 47.4 million yuan on the company and additional fines on six responsible individuals, totaling 76.2 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Nuotai Biopharma has shown significant growth in recent years, with net profit soaring to 163 million yuan in 2023, and the first half of 2024 already surpassing the entire 2023 profit at 227 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 442.77% [7]. - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 1.625 billion yuan, a 57.21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 404 million yuan, up 148.19% [7]. - In Q1 2025, Nuotai Biopharma reported revenue of 566 million yuan, a 58.96% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 130.10% [7]. Group 3: Industry Context - The peptide CDMO industry may face overcapacity issues, with domestic companies planning a total GLP-1 peptide API capacity of approximately 33-40 tons, potentially nearing 50 tons when including unreported expansions [8]. - Major players like Nuotai Biopharma and WuXi AppTec are rapidly expanding their production capacities, while competitors such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are also building their own capacities [8]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Impact - Nuotai Biopharma's stock price surged over 70% in the first half of 2024 but dropped nearly 30% in October 2024 following the CSRC's notice of investigation [9]. - After being designated as "ST Nuotai" due to the penalties, the stock is expected to experience prolonged declines, impacting daily operations, financing channels, and customer relationships [9].

Core Viewpoint - Notai Bio has been penalized for financial misconduct, leading to a change in its stock designation to "ST Notai" and a total fine of 76.2 million yuan, marking it as one of the most heavily fined companies in the A-share pharmaceutical sector in the past year [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On July 18, Notai Bio received an administrative penalty notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating that its annual report contained false financial data related to revenue and profit [1]. - The total fine imposed on Notai Bio amounts to 76.2 million yuan, with 16.8 million yuan for false reporting in the 2021 annual report and 59.4 million yuan for fabricating significant false content in convertible bond issuance documents [2][3]. - The penalties are attributed to the actions of key executives, including the actual controllers and senior management, who are deemed responsible for the misconduct [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The false reporting inflated Notai Bio's 2021 revenue by 30 million yuan and profit by 25.95 million yuan, which constituted 20.64% of the reported profit for that year [3]. - Despite the penalties, Notai Bio reported a significant increase in revenue from 300 million yuan in 2019 to 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit also showing consistent growth during the same period [7][10]. Group 3: Business Operations - Notai Bio, established in 2009 and listed on the STAR Market in 2021, specializes in pharmaceutical outsourcing services, particularly in small molecule drugs and peptide drugs, including GLP-1 products [6]. - The company has seen a surge in stock price, increasing over 70% from January to early July 2024, driven by the popularity of weight-loss drugs [6]. - Notai Bio's recent performance forecast indicates a net profit of 300 million to 330 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.06% to 45.27% [10].

Summary of CXO Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The CXO industry has shown significant recovery, with overall sales growth of 30%-40% driven by the launch of blockbuster products and relaxed healthcare policies [1][2] - Secondary market financing, including IPOs and additional offerings, has increased by over 60% year-on-year, with Hong Kong stocks performing actively and additional offerings growing by over 80% [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a notable recovery in orders, particularly in the second quarter of 2025, with June showing significant improvement [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Order Recovery**: The recovery in clinical orders is driven by two types of clients: those increasing investment after upfront payments and those influenced by business development (BD) projects [1][7] - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Companies need to maintain capacity utilization around 80% to avoid profit declines; low demand in the past two years has led to low utilization rates [1][10] - **Impact of Overseas Markets**: The overseas market has shown stable demand, with a noticeable improvement in global demand starting in 2024 and continuing into 2025 [2][11] - **Clinical Recruitment Trends**: Increased recruitment in the clinical phase indicates improved demand certainty, with changes in independent experiment scheduling reflecting overall demand recovery [4][8] Financial Insights - **Funding Sources**: Despite a decline in primary market financing, innovative drug companies are diversifying funding sources, including product sales, which have been boosted by favorable policies [2] - **Price Stability**: Current clinical order prices have not changed significantly, although there is potential for future price adjustments [9][18] Industry Structure - The CXO industry can be segmented into four stages: preclinical, clinical, and commercialization, with different companies specializing in each stage [5] - The relationship between pipeline quantity and company performance indicates that a higher number of pipelines correlates with better profitability [12] Market Dynamics - **Large Pharma vs. Biotech**: Large pharmaceutical companies have a higher order ratio compared to biotech firms, which tend to outsource more due to limited resources [17] - **Regulatory Impact**: The "Beautiful Law" may indirectly affect CDMO companies by influencing drug sales, which in turn impacts production volumes [19][20] Additional Observations - The SMA industry has reached a price bottom, with prices remaining stable since Q4 2024, which may affect clinical performance in 2025 [18] - The U.S. cost control policies differ from China's centralized procurement, leading to a slower implementation of cost controls in the U.S. market [20]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 0.7%, closing at 24,060.99 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.15%, ending at 5,299.91 points [1] - The total market turnover reached 229.24 billion HKD [1] Sector Performance - Oil and gas stocks continued to perform well, with low-priced oil and gas stocks showing significant gains [1] - Stablecoin concept stocks and IP economy concept stocks were active, while real estate stocks strengthened [1] - Gold stocks and pharmaceutical outsourcing concept stocks declined [1] Notable Stock Movements - Kingsoft Corporation (03888.HK) surged over 11% [1] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) increased by 6% [1] - Henderson Land Development (01929.HK), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209.HK), and Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) all rose over 4% [1] - WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) fell by 5.36% [1] Low-Priced Oil and Gas Stocks - Jixing New Energy (03395.HK) skyrocketed by 200% [1] - Baikin Oilfield Services (02178.HK) rose by 66.67% [1] - Yanchang Petroleum International (00346.HK) increased by 35.56% [1] - Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery (00568.HK) gained 32.67% [1]