斯托尔茨弗斯之前的预测是关税战初期的5950点，改变立场的原因是贸易谈判的进展消除了市场的不确 定性。"尽管一段时间以来，贸易政策和地缘政治事件都充满了不确定性和担忧，而且考虑到潜在结果 的多样性，冷静的头脑占了上风，至少目前是积极的结果。" 接下来美股将迎来财报密集披露期，本周将有161家标普500指数成分股公司公布财报，下周将有126家 公司公布。这位策略师将标普500指数公司2025年的盈利预期上调至每股275美元，这比市场平均预测高 出3%，对应标普500指数预期市盈率达到25.8倍，高于目前的22.5倍。斯托尔茨弗斯表示，过去两个季 度的上市公司应收和盈利增长出人意料，而当前财报季84%的公司超过了市场的普遍预期。 随着美国总统特朗普在对等关税立场上有所缓和及贸易协议谈判推进，美国三大股指从4月初低位大幅 反弹。在科技、工业和通信服务等周期性行业的推动下，标普500指数涨幅接近30%。 本月早些时候，高盛、美国银行和加拿大皇家银行也上调了标普500指数的目标。 随着上周末美国和欧盟同意了达成贸易协议的框架，周一盘前美国三大股指冲高。近期，华尔街频频上 调美股目标，周一奥本海默资产管理公司将标普500 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea has agreed to purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Agreements - South Korea's counterpart tariffs and auto tariffs will be set at 15% [1] - Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper are excluded from this agreement [1] Industry Specifics - South Korea will not face discrimination in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors [1]

韩国总统办公室：韩国在美国关于芯片和药品关税上不会比其他国家更糟。 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,561.73 tons on July 25, an increase of 78.28 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price on July 25 closed at $38.33 per ounce, down 2.44%, with a daily high of $39.52 and a low of $38.10 [1] Group 2 - EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite impending counter-tariff plans, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - The US may impose a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30%, while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel [3] - EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and EU has been finalized, potentially avoiding a global economic downturn due to a trade war [1][3] - The agreement sets a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, but there are discrepancies in statements from both sides regarding the inclusion of pharmaceuticals and metals [3][4] - The EU has reportedly agreed to invest significantly in the US, which may have influenced the terms of the agreement, particularly concerning pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the specifics of the tariff implementation may lead to volatility in related sectors, such as metal trading and pharmaceutical exports, as companies await final details [3][4] - The overall direction of the agreement is seen as positive for global supply chains, despite the need to address lingering details and disputes [3][4] - Continuous monitoring of subsequent developments in the trade agreement is essential for long-term investment strategies [4]

Core Insights - In 2024, Belgium has overtaken France to become Cameroon’s largest European import partner, accounting for 22.9% of Cameroon’s imports from the EU, valued at approximately $5.04 billion [2] - The total import value from the EU to Cameroon is projected to reach 1.32 trillion CFA francs (about $22.03 billion) in 2024 [2] - The decline in imports from France, particularly in refined petroleum products and lubricants, has contributed to this shift, with a notable decrease of 13.7% in these categories [2] Import Structure - The top five European import countries for Cameroon now include Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, with Italy and Spain emerging as significant players [2][3] - Italy ranks fourth with exports to Cameroon valued at 1.018 trillion CFA francs (approximately $1.69 billion), while Spain follows closely with 952 billion CFA francs (about $1.58 billion) [2] - The import structure indicates that Cameroon continues to rely heavily on the EU for essential goods, including grains, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electrical equipment, and iron and steel products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the ongoing discussions between the EU and the US regarding trade relations, with a potential agreement on tariff reductions being a focal point [1][4][5] - Trump stated that the likelihood of reaching a trade agreement with the EU is around 50%, which caused a temporary drop in the euro against the dollar [1][5] - EU officials expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement, potentially involving a 15% tariff rate, similar to a recent agreement with Japan [5][6] Group 2 - A face-to-face meeting is scheduled for July 27 in Scotland to further discuss trade cooperation and related disputes between the EU and the US [5][6] - Trump has previously announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, with additional tariffs on specific industries, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts [5][6] - The EU is seeking to establish lower tariff quotas for certain steel and aluminum products and hopes for exemptions in specific sectors [6] Group 3 - Trump indicated that most trade agreements are expected to be finalized before August, with plans to issue around 200 tariff letters to other trading partners [7] - He downplayed the possibility of the UK negotiating a deal by removing its digital services tax in exchange for lower US tariffs on steel and aluminum [7] - Australia has recently lifted restrictions on US beef imports, which Trump praised as a positive step in trade negotiations [8]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

宏观信息 行业信息 综合点评及操作建议 五、宏观信息 外交部发言人宣布，国务院总理李强将于7月26日出席在上海举行的2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议开幕式并致辞。 商务部表示，打击战略矿产走私出口面临的形势依然复杂严峻，下阶段将采取建立两用物项出口管制联合执法协调中心，将违法境外实体列入出口管制管控名 单，制定发布战略矿产合规出口工作指引等举措。 国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张。一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴关系定位。二是 坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴欧投资提供公平、公正、非 歧视的营商环境。 央行、农业农村部印发《关于加强金融服务农村改革 推进乡村全面振兴的意见》，提出要加大乡村振兴重点领域的金融资源投入，包括加大对粮食主产区、 产粮大县信贷资源倾斜，支持拓宽农民增收渠道等。 国家发改委表示， 2025年7350亿元中央预算内投资已基本下达完毕，重点支持现代化产业体系、现代化基础设施体系、新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴等领域项 目建设。 六、行业信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs, particularly the nine industry-specific tariffs based on national security concerns, which are more stringent than reciprocal tariffs based on trade deficits [1][3]. Group 1: Steel and Aluminum - Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum in 2018, which were later reinstated and increased to 50% in 2025 [4][6][7]. - The tariffs primarily target Canada, which accounts for over 20% of U.S. steel imports and nearly half of aluminum imports, followed by the EU and Japan [9]. - The tariffs have significant political implications, especially in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are crucial for elections [13][14][15]. Group 2: Copper - A 50% tariff on copper was announced, affecting various copper products, with the U.S. relying on imports for about half of its copper needs [16][17]. - Chile is a major copper supplier, contributing to a quarter of global supply, while China and other Asian countries hold significant copper reserves [18][19]. Group 3: Automotive and Parts - A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts was implemented, impacting a market where the U.S. imports over $300 billion worth of vehicles annually [22][23]. - The primary countries affected include Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Canada, and the UK, with Mexico being the most impacted [24][25]. - The tariffs are expected to influence U.S. automakers significantly, as they rely heavily on imported parts, with nearly 60% of parts being imported [25][32]. Group 4: Commercial Aircraft and Jet Engines - The U.S. imports more commercial aircraft and jet engines than it exports, with a trade deficit of $33 billion in 2024 [40]. - Nearly 50% of these imports come from the EU, with significant contributions from Canada and the UK [41]. Group 5: Wood Products - The U.S. is investigating tariffs on imported wood products, citing national security concerns due to military construction needs [43][45]. Group 6: Pharmaceuticals - The U.S. imports about 80% of its generic drugs and half of its brand-name drugs, with significant imports from Ireland and China [46][48]. - The U.S. has raised concerns about trade imbalances with Ireland, where many pharmaceutical companies have established operations [48]. Group 7: Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is under scrutiny for potential tariffs, as the U.S. imports $200 billion more in semiconductors than it exports [51]. - Major suppliers include mainland China, Taiwan, and Mexico, with a significant reliance on foreign production [52]. Group 8: Critical Minerals - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, with 12 out of 50 minerals fully imported and 28 more than half imported [53][54]. - South Africa and Canada are the largest suppliers, while China dominates the rare earth imports [55]. Group 9: Manufacturing Employment - The article notes a decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs from 17 million to 13 million over the past 30 years, with tariffs aimed at bringing jobs back to the U.S. [58]. - The transition of supply chains is complex and varies by industry, with manufacturing sectors like automotive facing longer timelines for relocation [59][60].