Summary of Wanchen Group's Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese retail industry is evolving, with temporary discount stores rapidly rising and transitioning towards discount supermarket formats, alongside a significant trend towards e-commerce [2][3] - The lower-tier markets, particularly third and fourth-tier cities, are identified as key growth areas for retail enterprises, presenting substantial opportunities for expansion [2][3] Company Insights: Wanchen Group - Wanchen Group is positioning itself as a comprehensive retail group, focusing on providing high cost-performance one-stop shopping experiences, with significant future growth potential [2][5] - The company has integrated regional brands into the snack wholesale sector and is gradually shifting towards a hard discount model, expanding product categories to enhance competitiveness [2][5] - Over the past two years, Wanchen Group has shown excellent stock performance and is recognized as a major player in the snack wholesale market [4][5] Financial Performance and Projections - Wanchen Group's revenue and profit margins are expected to improve through scale effects, reduced franchisee subsidies, and an increased proportion of private label products [4][21] - By 2027, the number of stores is projected to reach 25,500, with total revenue nearing 740 billion RMB, and net profit expected to be around 26 to 27 billion RMB [4][21] - The company has increased its stake in Nanjing Wanhao Commercial Group to 75%, enhancing its control over core operations and profitability [6] Market Dynamics - The snack wholesale market in China is currently dominated by two major groups, Wancheng and Henmang, with a projected increase in store count to over 40,000 by 2025, indicating a trend towards market concentration [9][21] - The rise of snack wholesale stores is attributed to the decline in supermarket revenues, characterized by high-frequency, low-value transactions and price advantages over traditional brands [8][21] Competitive Landscape - Wanchen Group's gross profit margin is higher than the industry average, benefiting from scale effects and a greater proportion of private label products, which enhances profitability [22][23] - The company is expected to outperform competitors like Sam's Club and Hema Fresh due to its higher private label ratio, leading to better gross margins [22][23] Future Trends - The future direction of the snack wholesale sector is focused on national expansion, particularly in lower-tier markets, where there is ample opportunity for store openings and supply chain integration [12][18] - The hard discount model is anticipated to remain the mainstream trend, with a focus on operational efficiency and supply chain management to drive profitability [20][21] Conclusion - Wanchen Group is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving retail landscape in China, with strong growth prospects driven by strategic market positioning, operational efficiencies, and an expanding footprint in lower-tier markets [2][4][6][21]

2025 年末，我们预计行业的这个门店数，是超过 5.5 万家。那对应市场的零售额，是超 过了 2500 亿元。那零食量贩品类，相比于奶茶，其实更为必选。并且受众也更为的广泛。 那另外，它的主力的市场其实是在下沉的这个市场。我们认为未来的这个空间，可以达到 8~10 万家的这个门店。另外，零食量贩的龙头，也在尝试新的单店模型。那主要是包括 折扣超市的这个业态和便利店的这个店型。那如果未来的这个店型能够进一步跑通，我们 认为量贩业态的这个渗透率，就是在线下传统渠道的这个渗透率的话，有望进一步的提振。 第二个方面就是格局。在 2025 年，我们认为行业进入到了 3.0 的阶段，竞争格局已经非 常明晰。那根据高德地图统计，2025 年末，鸣鸣很忙集团和万辰集团的门店数量分别是 超过 2.2 万和 1.9 万加。那第三名是零食很，零食有鸣，整体的门店数是在 6000 家左右， 但其实和前面两家龙头的这个数量级并不是在一个体量。那其余超过 2000 家以上的这个 门店的数量，基本上就只这个品牌数量的话，基本上只有两到三三家。我们认为整个龙头 的这个竞争的壁垒其实很难被颠覆的。 那同时，零食量贩龙头的这个规模，以及这个品 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Abstract 摘要 中金研究 2024年12月我们发布了《 休闲食品行业系列三：零食量贩渠道发展复盘及展望 》[1]报告，经历一年发展，行业进入3.0阶段，从"规模竞速"到"质效深 耕"。 点击小程序查看报告原文 零食量贩行业模型效率高且持续扩容，2025年底零食量贩门店超5.5万家。 我们预估2025年底5.5-6万家（零售额预估超2500亿元），中长期零食量贩店有 望达8-10万家。 零食量贩3.0时代格局已基本形成。 零食量贩1.0阶段（爆发增长期）期间呈现区域割据的特点；零食量贩2.0阶段（竞争整合期）2022-2024年市场整合加 速，头部龙头借助资金、品牌和规模等优势加速市场整合；零食量贩3.0阶段行业双强格局已基本形成，进入需门店运营优化和供应链提效的发展阶段。 2025年末鸣鸣很忙集团、万辰集团的门店数量分别超2.2/1.9万家（高德地图统计）。 2024年下半年零食量贩品牌均开始积极拓展品类，尝试运营省钱/折扣超市的新店型。 以现有品类为基础，拓展IP玩具卡牌类、以及短保类的烘焙或乳制 品，以及日化清洁、冻品等家庭刚需品类。品类扩充后对门店GMV有一定拉动但仍未达到较好的盈利模型，后续仍 ...

Core Insights - The company, Mingming Hen Mang, is set to launch its IPO on January 20, 2026, marking the first capital market appearance for China's snack retail industry, reflecting the business model's appeal amid a trend of consumption downgrade [2][9] - The IPO has attracted significant institutional investment, with a total subscription amount of $195 million (approximately HKD 1.52 billion) from eight major global investors, indicating strong market confidence in the company's growth potential [2][3] Investment Highlights - Major investors include Tencent and Temasek, each investing $45 million, alongside other global asset management firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, showcasing a dual recognition of the business model by both industrial and long-term capital [3] - The IPO plans to issue 14.1011 million shares, with a median offer price of HKD 233.10, aiming to raise approximately HKD 3.124 billion for supply chain upgrades, store network expansion, and digital transformation [3] Business Performance - Mingming Hen Mang has achieved remarkable growth, with revenue soaring from CNY 4.286 billion in 2022 to CNY 39.344 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203% [4] - The company reported a net profit increase from CNY 0.81 billion to CNY 9.13 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 234.6%, positioning it among the top performers in the retail chain industry [4] Market Strategy - The company's unique snack retail model combines supply chain efficiency, a franchise system, and competitive pricing, creating a robust competitive barrier [6] - By leveraging a large-scale procurement strategy with over 1,000 suppliers and a product range exceeding 4,000 SKUs, the company offers prices 20%-30% lower than traditional supermarkets, meeting consumer demand for high value [6] Digital Transformation - Mingming Hen Mang has established a comprehensive digital system covering procurement, warehousing, logistics, and sales, enhancing supply chain efficiency and providing real-time data to franchisees [7] - This digital capability supports better inventory management and operational guidance, reducing risks and improving profitability for franchise partners [7] Industry Dynamics - The IPO signifies a shift in the snack retail industry towards a more regulated and capitalized phase, with increasing competition from both established brands and regional players [8] - The market is evolving from a focus on store count to a more comprehensive competition involving supply chain efficiency, digital capabilities, and brand strength [8] Future Outlook - The listing is seen as a new starting point for Mingming Hen Mang, with challenges ahead in maintaining growth while balancing expansion and profitability [9] - The company's success could set a benchmark for the snack retail sector, encouraging others to focus on supply chain optimization and consumer experience enhancement [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the rapidly growing snack food market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 5.38 trillion yuan [5][14]. - The penetration rate of the bulk snack industry remains low, with expectations to increase from 3.2% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [5][15]. - The company has transitioned from a mushroom cultivation business to a bulk snack retailer, achieving a remarkable GMV growth of 282% from 2023 to 2024 [5][40]. - The company has a strong market presence with 15,365 stores across 29 provinces, leading in the Yangtze River Delta and surrounding areas [5][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The snack food retail market in China is expected to grow from 3.17 trillion yuan in 2019 to 4.05 trillion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.0% [14]. - The bulk snack retail sector is the fastest-growing channel, with a projected CAGR of 36.5% from 2024 to 2029 [15][17]. Company Development - The company has rapidly expanded its bulk snack business through acquisitions, integrating brands like "Lao Xiao Chan" and "Lai You Pin" under the "Hao Xiang Lai" brand [5][40]. - The company’s bulk business has become its primary revenue source, contributing nearly 99% of total revenue by Q3 2025, with revenues of 318 billion yuan and 362 billion yuan for 2024 and Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 503.01 billion yuan, 597.82 billion yuan, and 688.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.46 billion yuan, 17.16 billion yuan, and 20.09 billion yuan [6][7]. - The net profit margin for the bulk business has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.33% by Q3 2025, with the bulk business contributing 96% of the company's total net profit [5][6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid rise of Hunan Mingming, a snack retail chain, which is set to launch its IPO on January 28, 2026, aiming to become the first publicly listed company in the bulk snack sector [2][5] - The company has experienced explosive growth, expanding from a regional player to a leader with over 20,000 stores in just two years, achieving a revenue increase from 4.286 billion yuan in 2022 to 39.344 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 860% growth [6][7] - Despite impressive growth figures, the company faces challenges such as low profit margins and intense competition, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [6][21] Company Growth - Hunan Mingming's store count surged from 1,902 in 2022 to 19,517 by September 2025, with a significant presence in 28 provinces and 1,341 counties [7][10] - The company's GMV reached 66.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 74.5% year-on-year increase, with net profit soaring by 218.9% [8] - The growth strategy includes a dual-brand approach, with "Snacks Busy" targeting younger consumers and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" focusing on family consumption, leveraging a shared supply chain and digital systems [9][12] Market Position and Strategy - Hunan Mingming capitalizes on the consumption upgrade in lower-tier markets, offering over 1,800 SKUs per store, which is double that of traditional supermarkets [12] - The company has positioned itself at the forefront of a channel transformation, with bulk snack sales surpassing supermarkets and e-commerce for the first time in 2024 [12] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with traditional brands struggling to adapt, as seen with Three Squirrels' failed acquisition of a bulk snack brand [18][19] Challenges and Risks - The industry is characterized by low profit margins, with Hunan Mingming's margin at 9.7%, while many smaller brands report margins below 5% due to aggressive pricing strategies [21] - The company faces pressure from rising costs for franchisees and a slowdown in same-store sales growth, indicating potential vulnerabilities in its business model [21] - Supply chain stability is critical as the company expands, with increased demands for efficiency and flexibility to respond to market changes [24][26] Future Outlook - The IPO is seen as a starting point for Hunan Mingming, providing capital to address challenges such as low margins and product differentiation [27] - The company plans to allocate funds for product development, store network upgrades, brand building, and enhancing digital capabilities [27] - The long-term success of Hunan Mingming will depend on its ability to increase its own brand offerings and optimize profitability while navigating a competitive landscape [27][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming IPO of "Ming Ming Hen Mang," a leading company in the snack retail industry, which is set to launch globally on January 20, 2026, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 28, 2026 [5][7] - The snack retail sector is characterized by high-quality price ratios, diverse product structures, and a selection of products that meet consumer demands, positioning it as a mainstream channel in China's snack industry [7] - The company "Ming Ming Hen Mang" has experienced rapid expansion, with nearly 20,000 stores nationwide as of Q3 2025, primarily through a franchise model [7] - The revenue growth of "Ming Ming Hen Mang" is driven by store openings, with a GMV of 66.06 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 74.5% [7] - The report suggests that the snack retail channel will continue to thrive due to its low-priced, high-quality products and favorable in-store experiences for consumers [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -30.07% compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -5.41% [2] Company Insights - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" has a gross margin of less than 10%, relying on high turnover for profitability, with a diluted ROE of 21.58% for the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The company plans to issue approximately 14.1 million shares in its IPO, aiming to raise between 3.237 to 3.336 billion HKD [7]

Group 1 - The snack retail industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with major players like "Mingming Very Busy" and "Wancheng Group" expanding rapidly through listings and store openings [1][4] - The initial success of many franchisees was driven by low rental costs and substantial sales, leading to a rapid increase in store numbers, particularly in smaller towns [6][7] - However, the market has become saturated, resulting in intense competition and price wars, which have significantly reduced profit margins for franchisees [6][7] Group 2 - Many franchise owners are now facing financial pressure, with operational costs rising and the time to break even extending from 1.5 years to 2-3 years [7][9] - Brands are shifting focus from merely opening new stores to enhancing operational details and product upgrades, including the development of private labels and diversification into other product categories [9][10] - The snack retail market, while appearing vibrant, is undergoing a transformation towards differentiation and refined operations, necessitating careful consideration from franchisees regarding their capacity to endure market challenges [12]

Core Insights - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" is on the verge of becoming the first snack retail stock in Hong Kong, with a GMV exceeding 66.1 billion yuan and a year-on-year growth of over 74% as of September last year [1][4] - The founders, Yan Zhou and Zhao Ding, aim to provide affordable snacks and have built a vast retail network with nearly 20,000 stores across lower-tier markets [1][4] - However, the company faces significant challenges, including rising complaints about product quality and increasing store closure rates, which have risen from approximately 0.7% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2024 [5][6] Company Performance - As of 2025, the company has received over 2,000 complaints regarding its products, with issues such as mold and foreign objects being reported [5] - Franchisees are experiencing financial losses, with some reporting losses of over 1 million yuan and a significant increase in store closures from 14 in 2022 to 128 in the first three quarters of 2025 [10][12] - The company's gross profit margin has been constrained between 7.5% and 9.3%, with a net profit margin of only about 2%, indicating weak profitability [10][12] Business Model and Strategy - The company's business model relies heavily on rapid store expansion and low-cost franchise policies, which have created a vast network but also increased operational risks [10][11] - The average payback period for franchisees has extended to 29 months, far longer than the initial promise of 1.5 years [10] - The company is transitioning from a discount snack retailer to a broader "savings supermarket" model, introducing new product categories and self-branded items [13][14] Market Challenges - The snack retail market is highly fragmented, with the top five players holding only 6% of the market share, leading to intense competition [13] - The company faces pressure from established competitors like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba, which have significant advantages in global sourcing and brand development [18] - The shift to self-branded products may strain relationships with traditional suppliers and complicate inventory management, posing risks to profitability [17][18] Future Outlook - The company must prove its ability to adapt and innovate in a competitive landscape while maintaining its low-price strategy [16][19] - The success of the new business model will depend on its ability to manage operational complexities and maintain product quality amidst aggressive cost-cutting measures [17][18] - The path ahead is uncertain, with potential for both growth and significant challenges as the company navigates its transformation [19]