感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后Thanks for startPlease remain on the line目前所有参会者定处于静音状态现在开始播放演奏声明 本次会议为中信证券白名单会议仅限受邀客户参会未经中信证券和演讲嘉宾出面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中信证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 尊敬的各位投资人大家晚上好我是中云证券研究部新能源和电力设备行业的分析师华峰伟今天我和我的同事林姐就风电整机和核聚变相关的一些情况跟各位来做一个汇报那么近期的话其实我们也发布了关于风电整机和核电混合堆的报告 我们为什么会发这样的深度报告我们看到了就是说在像风电整机领域其实之前相应的开始涨价的一些 封基也就是说解除了低价竞争的一些封建整齐的这样的订单开始进入了交货期那么交货期也意味着就是说整个封基制造板块的一个盈利相较于之前大概会有一个比较明确的好转 另外就是我们也注意到在核电的混合堆这样的一个方向大概率是商业化推进速度最明确的那么针对这样的两个方向首先就是就风电整机板块啊我们先请电信组的分析师林杰就相应的一些观察到的行业思路以及推荐跟各 ...

谢谢主持人也非常荣幸能借此这个机会跟各位投资者分享一下我们这边的一个行业的观点那么我这边就是重点把我这边对下半年甚至整个未来我们整个电力板块的一个预测和判断然后跟各位投资者做一个分享其实今年呢首先我们先讲一下火电 其实今年的话,为什么要先讲火电呢?其实你可以看,在我们公共事业里面,主要有火电、水电、核电、风电、光伏或者统一叫绿电。你会发现其他几个板块,不管是水电、核电还是绿电,它们曾经都有过一波的估值显著提升。水电不用说,整个跟着长电,从最早最早的十几倍,然后到十五倍,再到二十倍。 然后绿电呢虽然说目前处于一个底部但曾经在21年的时候在双碳的时候呢也是一度很多估值达到20多倍甚至还有30倍的核电呢也是从9到10倍呀也是提升到了15倍以上那么呢只有火电这么长时间其实它一直处于一个就是低估值的一个状态或者在大家眼里就是一个很传统的一个典型的一个周期股大家就觉得这个行业估值可能了不起就9倍10倍可能差不多说七八倍也不觉得它有多便宜 为什么会这个样子呢就是你会其实我们会发现就是我们过去包括现在我们很多人看这个火箭行业的时候呢我们大多数还是会把火箭当成一个就是逆周期的板块就是我们要看煤价只要经济不行了觉得煤价下跌了火箭 ...

关于一级报的后续的一些判断,因为不管年报还是一级报,其实利润端的波动都是非常大的,这里面我们就想看看实际的需求,比如说从订单角度来讲,看看哪些板块的订单是在恢复的。 然后哪些板块订单的恢复是具有这个持续性的,这是我觉得第一点。然后第二点就是一个这一周的热点话题,就是关于公募基金的这个新的改革方案,然后对这个市场的短期中期的一些风格,包括板块上的影响,主要是这两个部分。然后第一我们先看一下订单这个方面的这个讨论,我们看一些细节。 首先呢,刚才我们提到,就是说整个这个上市公司利润层面上的波动,其实是非常剧烈的啊,就净利润累计同比增速,呃,四季度的话是一个最近几年吧,应该说是除了疫情之外哈,就回到了大概一五一六年这样的水平了,大概只有百分之负的十三十四这样的这个这个增速。 但一季报又大幅度的回升时隔两年算是第一次又转正了所以这个利润端的波动是很大的在这种情况下其实说实话是不太好做线性外推的尤其是从这个单季的这个环比的情况来看比方说左边这个图是每年的四季度的这个利润的单季的环比右边的是一季度单季的环比我们看四季度单季环比的话历史上过去六年的数字其实还是比较稳定的大概就是在50%多 这两个四季度和一季度的单级环比,都可 ...

花点时间跟大家做报道一下我们对于电信行业中期的一些策略观点因为行业的字板块比较多所以我们对整个行业做一些梳理梳理完了之后我们大致形式是这样的就是这个板块就分成三个篇章第六个篇章我们称之为成长生产行业进攻性比较足的那么我们主要选了人形机器人 后台电视还有包括ABC以及近期大家关注比较高的闻电这些领域作为主要的进攻方向因为其他主播始终还是大家对于关心的那么这是第一块那么第二块就是我们觉得格局比较细细的稳中有深的也是我们行业里面大家能选出一些优质个子的大块我们觉得从大大块讲来说风电是一个观念之年还有就是包括 电网和鼠轮我们觉得也是属于科技比较新鲜的这些环节我们觉得一些农土公司估值都比较低后期会继续一个估值修复的阶段最后一份篇章我们其实只是选了一个行业而且就是光伏我们觉得光伏还在一个过剧的环节 整个行业的营业成压还需要比较长的一段时间 我觉得那是需要再去观察行业的一些指标可能行业指标有什么变化这是大概整体的一些一个思路和方向那接下来呢我就是以报告形式把一些要点的部分跟大家做一个整体的一个汇报那从上半年因为我们报告呢就是在5月底的时候提交的就是从整个上面的情况来看嘛就是电信板坑呢就是今年是跑出行业了大概今年以来呢就是到 ...

市场流动性环境上来讲货币政策还是维持着一个适度宽松的这样一个环境那除此之外的话我们看到从外围的这样一个市场之前最担心的关税的问题上来讲近期其实也是发生了一系列积极的变化那其实最主要就是看到中方也是正式 好的各位直播间的投资者朋友大家好今天的话我们来介绍一下整个的新能源板块的一些投资机会以及即将新发展的创业板新能源ETF国泰的一个基本情况那创业板新能源ETF国泰的代码是159387整个发行期的话是在5月12号到5月23号两周然后这个产品它最大的特点就是预销于创业板单市场的这样一个 有20个亿米涨跌幅限制的这样一个新能源代交的ETF品种那其实它作为一个这个最佳创业板单市场的ETF品种在二级市场交易的一个这个涨跌幅限制就是20%那当下来看的话呢我觉得整个新能源板块也是在一个行情上来看是在一个历史偏低位的一个水平同时的话呢我们看到未来它也有一个这个供应车改革相关的这样一些预期 包括我们去看产业新闻产业链的这样一些投资机会你觉得当前可能也是在一个底部偏左侧的一个位置所以我们觉得可能也是在一个相对来说适合去做一个地位布局的阶段当然首先我们来讲介绍一下当前阶段我们对于整体A股市场行情投资机会的这样一个观点首先的话我们看到近 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the telecommunications and electronics industry, with a focus on companies like Zhongtai Telecom and others involved in the supply chain and manufacturing of electronic components. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Differentiation**: The industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with some segments showing strong performance while others face challenges. [1] 2. **Pressure in Supply Chain**: The refining stages of the supply chain are under considerable pressure, affecting overall operational capabilities. [2] 3. **Profit Margins**: There is a notable disparity in profit margins, with leading companies maintaining positive margins while non-leading firms struggle with losses. [3] 4. **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: The demand side shows some strength, particularly in the first quarter, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to potential pressures in the second quarter. [3] 5. **Focus on Leading Companies**: Recommendations suggest prioritizing investments in companies with solid reports and proven track records, particularly in the context of ongoing market pressures. [4] 6. **Improvement in Financial Performance**: Companies like Fucai have shown improvements in operational capabilities, driven by strong group dynamics and market positioning. [5] 7. **Market Conditions**: The overall market conditions are expected to remain stable, with a focus on technological advancements and new materials driving future growth. [10] 8. **Regional Performance**: China’s performance aligns with expectations, with significant orders coming from India, the Middle East, and parts of Europe, despite previous high inventory levels. [7] 9. **Emerging Markets**: The demand in emerging markets is increasing, particularly in Europe, where economic conditions are improving. [13] 10. **Future Projections**: The second half of the year is anticipated to see increased shipping volumes, particularly in traditional peak seasons, despite some challenges in the U.S. market. [15] 11. **Valuation and Market Positioning**: Current valuations are seen as attractive, with expectations of recovery as tariff impacts diminish. [16] 12. **Operational Stability**: Companies are maintaining stable operational levels despite low surface margins, indicating resilience in the face of market challenges. [11] 13. **Technological Advancements**: Innovations in technology, particularly in materials like copper and silver paste, are expected to enhance operational efficiencies. [10] 14. **Investment Recommendations**: There is a strong recommendation for investing in companies with robust operational capabilities and market positioning, particularly in the context of ongoing industry changes. [12] 15. **Long-term Growth Potential**: The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding long-term growth, with expectations of significant improvements in operational performance and market share. [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the market, with expectations of improved performance in the coming quarters. [17] 2. **Supply Chain Adjustments**: Companies are adjusting their supply chains to better meet the evolving demands of the market, particularly in response to technological changes. [25] 3. **Investment in New Technologies**: There is a focus on investing in new technologies and materials to enhance competitiveness and operational efficiency. [10] 4. **Regional Disparities**: The performance of companies varies significantly by region, with some areas showing stronger growth potential than others. [22] 5. **Future Market Dynamics**: The dynamics of the market are expected to shift, with increased competition and the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer demands. [30]

招股书显示，华电新能是华电集团风、光新能源业务的唯一整合平台，主营业务为风电和光伏电站的开 发、投资与运营。截至2024年底，公司控股装机容量68.62GW，其中风电32.02GW、光伏36.59GW，分 别占全国市场份额6.15%和4.13%。2024年度公司营业收入340亿元；净利润率为27.91%；净资产收益率 为10.16%，盈利指标领先同业。 华电新能表示，本次上市募集的资金，将重点投向风光大基地项目、就地消纳负荷中心项目、新型电力 系统协同发展项目和绿色生态文明协同发展项目。未来，公司将以本次募投项目为牵引，充分发挥基地 化、规模化开发的核心优势，将募集资金高效转化为高质量发展的新动能和提升业绩的新动力，适应电 价市场化改革要求，将13200万千瓦备案储备项目优选精建，形成"开发更加有序、建设更加高效、运营 更加稳健"的可持续发展新局面。 编辑：李一帆 新华财经上海7月16日电（记者 郭慕清）7月16日，中国华电集团旗下新能源旗舰华电新能（600930） 正式登陆沪市主板，成为年内第三家成功上市的光伏风电为主的新能源企业，此前已有首航新能、泽润 新能源成功上市。 据悉， 公司股票发行价3.18元／ ...

从 2024 年到 2025 年，国内风电设备出海市场持续受到高度关注。许多上市 公司披露的海外订单实现了 100%到 300%的高增速，整体行业数据也显示出 显著增长。2024 年的出口总量和新增订单量均增长超过 60%。从全球新增装 机角度看，中国市场占比约 60%至 70%，其中陆上风电占国内市场的 90%以 上。因此，国内需求波动对海外市场有重要影响。 2024 年，全国风电招标总 量为 164 吉瓦，同比增长 90%，创历史新高。过去三年（2022-2024 年）， 全国陆上风电招标保持高景气度，为今年（2025 年）的抢装奠定基础。海上 风电方面，自 2022 年以来，每年的招标体量平均超过 10 吉瓦，但实际交付 逐年下滑，去年（2024 年）降至仅 4 吉瓦。然而，根据各省十四五规划，目 前有 20 至 25 吉瓦的项目将在两年内开工建设。今年（2025 年）和明年 （2026 年）预计分别有 10 吉瓦和 15-16 吉瓦的装机。 从核准角度看，自国 家双碳战略推动以来，陆上风电新增核准持续创新高。今年前五个月新增核准 接近 46 吉瓦，同比增长 133%。这使得对明年的陆上风电装机量预期较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the marine economy and the development of offshore wind power in China, highlighting the country's leadership in the global offshore wind energy sector and the need for further innovation and expansion in this industry [2][4][6]. Offshore Wind Power Development - As of the end of 2024, China's cumulative installed offshore wind power capacity is projected to reach 41.27 GW, accounting for 49.6% of the global total [4]. - China has been the world's largest contributor to new offshore wind power installations for seven consecutive years, with a market share of 60% in wind turbine production, 64% in blade production, 80% in gearbox production, and 73% in generator production [8][9]. Technological Advancements - Recent advancements include the development of the world's largest direct-drive floating offshore wind turbine, capable of withstanding extreme weather conditions [5]. - The offshore wind power industry in China benefits from a robust manufacturing system, allowing for the production of high-quality wind power equipment at the lowest costs [6]. Policy Support and Industry Collaboration - The Chinese government is providing targeted support for the offshore wind power industry, with local policies aimed at strengthening the supply chain and enhancing technological capabilities [9]. - The industry has established a comprehensive supply chain that includes research and design, equipment manufacturing, resource development, and operational services [8]. Future Directions - The focus is shifting towards deep-sea development, which is expected to be a core direction for the offshore wind power industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as deep-sea wind resources are underutilized [11]. - The integration of offshore wind power with other marine activities, such as aquaculture and hydrogen production, is being promoted to enhance efficiency and economic returns [10][12].

Core Insights - China's offshore wind power industry has achieved global leadership in installed capacity and market scale, with a cumulative grid-connected capacity of 41.27 GW by the end of 2024, accounting for 49.6% of the global total [2][3] - The industry is focusing on deep-sea wind energy resource development and innovative models such as multi-energy coupling and "wind power +" to drive industrial upgrades [1][7] Industry Development - The offshore wind power sector in China has seen significant advancements, including the launch of the world's largest direct-drive floating offshore wind turbine, capable of withstanding extreme weather conditions [3] - The Jiangsu Dafeng 800 MW offshore wind project, the farthest from shore at 85.5 km, has successfully integrated domestic technology and achieved dynamic construction solutions [3][5] Technological Advancements - China's offshore wind power technology is mature, with a strong manufacturing capability that allows for the production of high-quality wind power equipment at the lowest cost [4] - The industry has established a complete supply chain, with domestic production capacities for wind turbines, blades, gearboxes, and generators accounting for 60%, 64%, 80%, and 73% of the global market, respectively [5] Policy Support - The Chinese government is providing targeted support for the offshore wind power industry, with local policies aimed at strengthening the supply chain and promoting the development of large-scale floating wind turbines [6] - The current electricity pricing mechanism is seen as a challenge, with ongoing efforts to improve market mechanisms during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] Future Directions - The development of deep-sea wind energy resources is expected to be a core focus for the offshore wind power industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant untapped potential in global offshore wind resources [7] - The integration of hydrogen production with offshore wind power is being explored as a means to enhance energy storage and distribution, contributing to a more sustainable energy supply [8]