行情预期 21世纪经济报道记者李域 1月7日，平安基金举办"正启新程"2026年投资策略会，多位基金经理共同展望新一年资本市场机遇。 策略会明确将科技创新与周期品供需再平衡列为2026年两大投资主线。科技领域聚焦全球AI资本开支高增带动的硬件创新机会以及自主可控 叠加国内AI产业需求带动的国产半导体产业链投资机会；周期领域则建议关注供给约束良好、需求温和复苏的周期品种，如化工和工业金属 及其他品种。 平安科技创新混合基金经理翟森则指出，AI基础设施建设远未达到需要讨论泡沫的阶段。他认为，2026年AI领域的投资整体策略是紧扣全球 资本开支主线，同时布局国内替代机遇和应用端的新增长点。 多层次含权产品体系 2025年"固收+"产品规模迅猛增长，截至2025年第三季度，全市场"固收+"产品规模已突破2.6万亿元大关，创下历史新高。 展望2026年，平安恒泽混合基金经理刘斌斌对"固收+"市场发展持乐观态度。刘斌斌预计，债券市场将呈现"N型"走势，十债收益率运行中枢 有所上行，在新的中枢震荡等待基本面的确认。权益市场方面，随着国内供给端产能周期筑底确认、需求侧稳增长政策持续发力以及美国财政 货币双宽周期的开启，A股盈 ...

Market Overview - On December 30, 2025, A-shares experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a "10 consecutive days" increase, marking the longest streak of the year [1] - The market's trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the third consecutive day, indicating robust investor interest [1] Sector Performance - The chemical and non-ferrous metals sectors opened lower but rebounded, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.5% during the day, reaching a three-year high [1] - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) also saw a rise of 1.75%, reflecting strong investor sentiment [1] - Technology stocks remained active, particularly AI-related ETFs, with the AI-focused ETFs achieving new closing highs [1] ETF Highlights - The chemical ETF (516020) has accumulated a year-to-date increase of over 40%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite [15][21] - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) received a net subscription of 28.8 million units, indicating strong market confidence in the sector's future performance [22] - The Hong Kong market saw a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.86%, driven by hard technology stocks [2] Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a 15.9% year-on-year growth, and is expected to grow to $206.7 billion in 2025 [10] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with specific sub-sectors like titanium dioxide and certain pesticides expected to see better conditions [21] - The domestic manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which may provide additional growth opportunities for the chemical industry [21] Notable Stocks - In the semiconductor sector, stocks like SMIC and other related companies have shown significant price increases, reflecting positive market sentiment [8] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies such as Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum reached historical highs, indicating strong performance within the industry [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the semiconductor chip industry, is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index outperforming other technology indices significantly this year, showing a cumulative increase of over 39% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index rose over 2%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index and other technology-related indices [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C ETF (159131) recorded a daily trading volume of 77.27 million yuan, recovering its 5-day and 20-day moving averages [2] - The ETF focuses on the "Hong Kong chip" industry, comprising 70% hardware and 30% software, and includes 42 hard-tech companies [7] Group 2: Key Companies and Developments - Semiconductor company SMIC plans to acquire 49% of its subsidiary, SMIC North, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, while also receiving a cash injection of $7.778 billion for SMIC South [3] - Notable stock performances include InnoCare rising over 15%, Midea rising over 11%, and UBTECH rising over 8% [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Chinese semiconductor market is projected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and expected to reach $206.7 billion by 2025 [5] - The domestic semiconductor industry is advancing from downstream manufacturing to upstream core equipment, materials, and software, driven by national policies and international dynamics [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in third-generation semiconductor materials, computing chips, RF communication chips, and high-bandwidth storage [5] Group 4: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) has a current P/E ratio of 33.25, which is significantly lower than the P/E ratios of the ChiNext Index (41.04) and the Nasdaq 100 (36.23), indicating a favorable investment valuation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the semiconductor chip industry, is experiencing a strong rebound, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index rising over 2%, significantly outperforming other technology indices [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information C Index has a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1][10]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology ETF (159131) recorded a single-day trading volume of 77.27 million yuan, recovering both the 5-day and 20-day moving averages [2][11]. Group 2: Key Stocks and Movements - Notable stock performances include InnoCare Pharma rising over 15%, Midea Group increasing over 11%, and UBTECH Robotics gaining over 8% [5][15]. - Semiconductor companies like SMIC and iFlytek also saw increases of over 4% [5][15]. Group 3: Industry Developments - SMIC plans to acquire a 49% stake in SMIC North, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, and will receive a cash injection of $7.778 billion for SMIC South [3][12]. - This capital operation is expected to create opportunities for domestic chips, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure [3][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $176.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and is expected to reach $206.7 billion by 2025 [4][13]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is making progress from downstream manufacturing to upstream core equipment, materials, and software, driven by national policies and international dynamics [4][13]. Group 5: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong Information Technology ETF (159131) has a current P/E ratio of 33.25, which is significantly lower than the ChiNext Index at 41.04 and the Nasdaq 100 at 36.23, indicating a favorable investment valuation [6][16]. - The ETF focuses on a composition of 70% hardware and 30% software, covering 42 hard tech companies, with significant weights in SMIC (15.19%) and Xiaomi (14.21%) [8][18].

Market Overview - On December 30, 2025, A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a "10 consecutive days of gains," marking the longest streak of the year [1] - The market's trading volume exceeded 20 trillion yuan for the third consecutive day, indicating strong investor interest [1] Sector Performance - The chemical and non-ferrous metals sectors opened lower but rebounded strongly, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a new three-year high, gaining 2.5% intraday [1][34] - The chemical ETF (516020) recorded a year-to-date increase of over 40%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite [35] - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) also saw a rise of 1.75% after hitting a historical high, reflecting strong investor confidence in the sector [1][16] Technology Sector - The technology sector remained active, with the "AI twins" (entrepreneurial AI ETFs) continuing to rise, showcasing the strength of the domestic AI industry chain [1] - The Hong Kong information technology ETF (159131), focused on the semiconductor industry, surged by 2%, outperforming other technology indices [27][34] Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor market in China is projected to reach $206.7 billion by 2025, driven by domestic policy support and international dynamics [32] - The valuation of the Hong Kong information technology ETF (159131) is attractive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.25, indicating significant upside potential compared to other major technology indices [32][34] Notable Stocks - Semiconductor stocks like SMIC saw a rise of over 4%, indicating strong market performance [27] - In the chemical sector, stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical and New Fengming experienced significant gains, with some stocks hitting their daily limit [35]

Group 1 - The 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecosystem Expo (Bay Chip Expo) was held from October 15 to 17 at the Shenzhen Convention Center, where Shenzhen Xinkailai Industrial Machinery Co., Ltd. emerged as a popular attraction [1][3] - Xinkailai is recognized as a domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, addressing a critical weakness in the domestic semiconductor industry chain, particularly in equipment development [3] - Established in June 2022, Xinkailai is fully owned by Shenzhen Shenchip Heng Technology Investment Co., Ltd., which is in turn wholly controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3] Group 2 - In the first half of this year, Xinkailai demonstrated over 30 types of equipment, covering the entire semiconductor manufacturing process with categories including process equipment and measurement equipment [3] - Despite the buzz, Xinkailai did not showcase any lithography machines at the expo [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecosystem Expo (Bay Chip Expo) took place from October 15 to 17 in Shenzhen, where Shenzhen Xinkailai Industrial Machinery Co., Ltd. (Xinkailai) emerged as a major attraction, drawing significant attention before 9 AM on the first day of the event [3] - Xinkailai is recognized as a domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, addressing a critical weakness in the domestic semiconductor industry chain, particularly in equipment development [3] - Established in June 2022, Xinkailai is fully owned by Shenzhen Shenchip Heng Technology Investment Co., Ltd., which is in turn wholly controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3] Company Highlights - Xinkailai demonstrated over 30 types of equipment in the first half of this year, categorized into process equipment and measurement equipment, covering nearly the entire semiconductor manufacturing process [3] - The product lineup includes diffusion products, thin film products, optical detection products, and optical measurement products, showcasing the company's technological capabilities [3] - Notably, Xinkailai did not showcase any lithography machine equipment during the expo [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's Kirin chip makes a strong comeback after four years, with the unveiling of "Kirin 9020" at a press conference, signaling a significant achievement for both the company and the domestic semiconductor industry [1] Group 1 - The Kirin 9020 was prominently displayed during the launch, indicating a shift towards transparency in Huawei's operations [1] - The entire process from design to production to testing has been largely streamlined, showcasing advancements in the company's capabilities [1] - This event represents a collective triumph for the domestic semiconductor supply chain, highlighting the progress made in the industry [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a net inflow of 306.13 billion HKD from southbound funds between August 18 and 21, 2025, primarily into non-bank financials, software services, and consumer discretionary sectors [2][7][34] - The top five sectors receiving inflows accounted for a total of 238.11 billion HKD, with non-bank financials leading at 85.1 billion HKD [2][7][34] - In contrast, foreign capital saw a net outflow of 145.99 billion HKD during the same period, with significant withdrawals from non-bank financials and consumer discretionary sectors [7][40] Sector Summaries Southbound Fund Inflows - Non-bank financials received the highest inflow of 85.1 billion HKD, followed by software services at 62.8 billion HKD, and consumer discretionary retail at 30.69 billion HKD [2][7][34] - Other notable inflows included pharmaceuticals and hardware equipment, each receiving 30.69 billion HKD and 28.85 billion HKD respectively [2][7][34] Foreign Capital Outflows - Foreign capital saw significant outflows from non-bank financials (-61.11 billion HKD), consumer discretionary retail (-47.58 billion HKD), and banking sectors [7][40] - The top sectors for foreign inflows included daily consumer retail (73.52 billion HKD) and medical equipment and services (31.31 billion HKD) [7][40] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.89% during the period from August 18 to 22, 2025 [6][12] - Key drivers for market performance included technological breakthroughs in semiconductor design and strong earnings reports from leading companies [6][12] Comparative Analysis - The report notes a divergence in fund flows, with southbound funds showing net inflows while foreign capital exhibited net outflows during the same timeframe [7][40] - The report also indicates that the southbound funds have been increasingly directed towards sectors like non-bank financials and software services, contrasting with the foreign capital's focus on consumer retail and medical sectors [7][40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the target price for SMIC has been lowered by 6.25% from HKD 48 to HKD 45 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The company’s stock price performance in the previous quarter met expectations, indicating potential volatility influenced by market sentiment [1] - The report emphasizes SMIC's leading position in the domestic semiconductor industry, suggesting that the stock price may fluctuate around the revised target price as the market returns to fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025 have been revised down to USD 8.95 billion and 20.8% respectively, from previous estimates of USD 9.41 billion and 20.9% [1]