| 冠 永安期货 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/09 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.168 | 4.404 | 3.528 | 2.862 | 3.508 | 3.254 | 0.261 | 3.370 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.073 | 6.234 | 1.882 | - | 4.668 | 4.429 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.489 | 3.650 | 2.09 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for silicon iron futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 5686.00 yuan, with a current price of 688.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [1] - Institutions have varying views on the future of silicon iron prices, with expectations of price fluctuations around cost valuation levels due to high overall costs and seasonal demand pressures [2] - The overall trend of silicon iron prices is heavily dependent on energy price changes, with current coal prices providing some support to costs [3] Group 2 - The production of silicon iron is currently low, and major steel mills are still showing a willingness to replenish stocks before the winter season [3] - Despite an increase in iron alloy production and inventory accumulation, the downside for iron alloys is limited due to cost support and recent positive trends in bulk commodities [3] - The market outlook suggests a cautious approach to bearish positions, considering the potential for cost support and disruptions in coal production [3]

Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, the US corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support the price. In the domestic market, the acquisition progress in the Northeast has passed half, and after the New Year's Day, the release of reserve corn and the directional release of imported corn continue. The feed enterprise inventory is at a normal level, and the deep - processing enterprise inventory is relatively low year - on - year. In the Huabei and Huanghuai regions, as the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness to sell grain increases, and the market supply is abundant. The corn futures price is relatively volatile recently, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply pressure remains. The starch inventory has increased week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year. However, after the large increase in the price of tapioca starch, some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch, increasing the demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2222 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 27 yuan/ton, the open interest of the active contract is 994015 lots (down 7328 lots), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 167858 lots (up 1031 lots), the registered warehouse receipts are 31655 lots (down 7740 lots), and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 313 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2501 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton), the monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 44 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton), the open interest of the active contract is 193513 lots (down 3295 lots), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 33413 lots (down 1803 lots), and the registered warehouse receipts are 12355 lots (unchanged) [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 444.5 cents/bushel (up 7.5 cents), the total open interest is 1543015 contracts (up 26463 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 53192 contracts (down 11680 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2354.51 yuan/ton (down 1.96 yuan/ton), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price of imported corn is 2051.05 yuan/ton (up 3.76 yuan/ton) [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the main corn starch contract is 69 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main corn contract is 132.51 yuan/ton (up 0.04 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons (down 1.58 million tons), in Brazil is not mentioned, in Argentina is 53 million tons (unchanged), in China is 295 million tons (unchanged), and in Ukraine is 32 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - Corn planting areas: The predicted planting areas in the US is 36.44 million hectares (up 0.55 million hectares), in Brazil is not mentioned, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares (unchanged), in China is 44.3 million hectares (unchanged), and in Ukraine is not mentioned [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons (up 15.6 tons), at northern ports is 157 tons (down 31 tons), and the deep - processing corn inventory is 349.4 tons (up 11.6 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Corn: The monthly import volume is 36 tons (up 30 tons), the monthly feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9 tons), and the sample feed corn inventory days are 29.92 days (up 0.04 days) [2]. - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 19.17 tons (up 6.39 tons), the starch enterprise inventory is 112.3 tons (up 2.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64%) [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Corn: The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.28 tons (down 1.42 tons), and the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 63.5% (down 1.38%) [2]. - Corn starch: The starch enterprise operating rate is 59.86% (down 0.6%), the processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Hebei is 65 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jilin is - 56 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 11.08% (down 0.32%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.29% (down 0.01%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 10.02% (up 0.53%) [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,206,913 tons, compared with the revised 1,335,028 tons last week and 877,214 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending December 25, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2025/26 season was 756,419 tons, compared with 2,202,287 tons in the previous week [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing sophistication and concealment of financial crimes, particularly in the context of illegal futures trading facilitated by a low-cost software tool, which has led to significant financial transactions without proper regulatory oversight [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Crime Trends - Financial crimes are evolving with new methods that enhance their concealment and professionalism, as evidenced by a case involving illegal futures trading with a total transaction amount of 437 million yuan [1][4]. - The use of a 5,000 yuan software tool allowed individuals to split a main account into 15 independent trading ports, bypassing essential identity verification processes required by legitimate futures companies [3][4]. Group 2: Case Details - The illegal trading operation was initiated by individuals with prior experience in the futures industry, who sought to create a trading team and expand into leveraged trading services [3][8]. - The operation involved recruiting traders under the guise of offering substantial capital for trading, while the actual business model was centered around illegal futures trading and collecting excessive fees [7][8]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The case reflects a broader initiative to strengthen financial regulation in response to emerging financial crimes, aligning with the government's goal of building a robust financial system [1][9]. - The prosecution of the individuals involved was based on the illegal nature of their activities, which included conducting futures trading without the necessary regulatory approvals [9][13]. Group 4: Implications for the Market - The case serves as a warning against the misuse of technology to circumvent financial regulations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the financial market to prevent similar illegal activities [10][13]. - The actions taken by the authorities aim to enhance compliance awareness among market participants and address regulatory loopholes exposed by such illegal operations [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial crime trends in Beijing highlight the increasing sophistication and concealment of illegal activities, particularly in the futures trading sector, as evidenced by a case involving a total transaction amount of 437 million yuan through illegal means [1]. Group 1: Financial Crime Trends - The financial crime methods are evolving, with increased concealment and professionalism [1]. - A specific case involved illegal futures trading using a 5,000 yuan software that allowed the creation of multiple trading accounts, bypassing regulatory requirements [4][5]. - The case reflects the government's commitment to strengthening financial regulation and combating illegal activities in the financial sector [1]. Group 2: Illegal Trading Mechanisms - The software enabled the creation of up to 15 independent trading ports from a single account, allowing unqualified clients to engage in high-risk trading without proper identity verification [4]. - The illegal operation was structured to attract clients under the guise of recruiting skilled traders, offering lucrative profit-sharing agreements [6][7]. - The operation involved two main funding sources: personal funds from the operators and borrowed funds from a private fund that had reached its liquidation threshold [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Response and Legal Action - The prosecution of the case was based on the illegal organization of futures trading and the collection of fees without proper authorization, which was classified as unauthorized futures brokerage [10]. - The investigation revealed that the actual illegal gains were significantly lower than the total transaction volume, leading to a more nuanced understanding of the crime's scale [10]. - The case has prompted discussions among regulatory bodies to address the loopholes that allowed such illegal activities to flourish [11].

Market Overview - As of January 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse stocks at 97,925 tons, with cancellations of 8,400 tons, resulting in a net decrease of 750 tons. Total zinc inventory stands at 106,325 tons, down by 1,300 tons [1] - The Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Production Forecast - Refined zinc production is projected to be 552,100 tons in December 2025, which is below expectations. However, production is expected to increase to 569,400 tons in January 2026 [3] Institutional Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall market sentiment is warming. The treatment charges (TC) have stabilized due to the opening of the import window, but are expected to decline in January. The domestic raw material supply remains tight in the short term, while the supply side is expected to loosen in the long term. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts is providing support for Shanghai zinc prices. The outlook suggests that while low domestic inventory supports prices, there is a lack of upward driving force in the fundamentals, leading to a range-bound market [4] - Guangzhou Futures anticipates that the medium to long-term focus for zinc prices will gradually shift upward. However, due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter, short-term upward potential is limited. Prices are expected to trend upward after the holiday, followed by a transition into a range-bound market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stock of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, with a low inventory - consumption ratio of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious bullish factor in South American weather in the short term. The weather in Argentine production areas is dry recently, but the soil moisture is suitable with no obvious adverse impact for now. Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. With the expectation of a large Brazilian soybean harvest, the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on Brazilian CX premiums should be monitored. The sum of the US soybean futures price and Brazilian premiums is expected to decline, and M05 is expected to be relatively weak without special events [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. Due to concerns about soybean shortages in the first quarter and extended customs inspections, downstream pre - holiday stocking is expected to be active, which supports domestic spot prices before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter causes a structural supply problem in China, which supports M03. M03 - M05 is still in a positive spread in the short term, but the risk lies in policy changes. The impact of stricter customs inspection policies, the volume, price, and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed supplies are hard to predict, so investors are advised to operate cautiously [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang), the basis values in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places on December 31st were 411, 391, etc., with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 371 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 129 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 35 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 534, with a decrease of 2; the spot spread (in Guangdong) was 300; the spread of the main contract was 384, with an increase of 9 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9584, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 130.00 cents per bushel, with a daily increase of 0. The Brazilian soybean import gross margin per ton was also presented in the 2025 chart [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Charts were provided for China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, etc., covering data from 2020 - 2025 [7]. 3.5 Machine and Pressing Situation - Charts showed the major domestic oil mills' soybean pressing volume in tons and the operating rate from 2020 - 2023 [7].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.169, UK 4.476, France 3.562, Germany 2.854, Italy 3.548, Spain 3.286, Switzerland 0.277, Greece 3.439, Japan 2.059, Brazil 6.209, China 1.843, Australia 4.741, New Zealand 4.397 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.475, UK 3.714, Germany 2.120, Japan 1.168, Italy 2.194, China (1Y yield) 1.342, Australia 4.056 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil (not fully shown), Russia (not fully shown), South Africa zar 16.561, South Korean won (not fully shown), Thai baht (not fully shown), Malaysian ringgit 4.060 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.988, off - shore RMB 6.976, RMB central parity rate 7.029, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.862 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indexes: S&P 500 6845.500, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48063.290, Nasdaq 23241.990, Mexican Index 64308.290, UK Index 9931.380, France CAC 8149.500, German DAX (not fully shown), Spanish Index 17307.800, Russian Index (not fully shown), Nikkei (not fully shown), Hang Seng Index 25630.540, Shanghai Composite Index 3968.840, Taiwan Index (not fully shown), South Korean Index (not fully shown), Indian Index (not fully shown), Thai Index (not fully shown), Malaysian Index 1680.110, Australian Index 9018.786, Emerging - economy Index 1404.370 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indexes: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3545.180, Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.782, Emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.360, US high - yield credit - bond index 2914.490, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 410.300, Emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1824.631 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - shares' closing price is 3968.84 with a 0.09% increase; CSI 300's closing price is 4629.94 with a - 0.46% decrease; SSE 50's closing price is 3031.13 with a - 0.18% decrease; ChiNext's closing price is 3203.17 with a - 1.23% decrease; CSI 500's closing price is 7465.57 with a 0.09% increase [4] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.17 with a - 0.02 change; SSE 50 is 11.85 with a 0.02 change; CSI 500 is 33.80 with a 0.01 change; S&P 500 is 27.34 with a - 0.21 change; German DAX is 18.95 with a 0.00 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.51 with a - 0.02 change; German DAX is 2.42 with a 0.00 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest values for A - shares are - 601.31, for the main board - 430.72, for the ChiNext - 108.75, for CSI 300 - 177.02; the 5 - day average values for A - shares are - 401.18, for the main board - 313.35, for the ChiNext - 66.25, for CSI 300 - 21.09 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest values for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are 20451.42 with a - 971.84 change; for CSI 300 are 4444.92 with a - 126.93 change; for SSE 50 are 1076.68 with a - 55.07 change; for the small - and - medium - sized board are 4402.75 with a - 233.99 change; for the ChiNext are 5436.92 with a - 158.03 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: For IF, the basis is - 30.14 with a - 0.65% spread; for IH, the basis is - 6.13 with a - 0.20% spread; for IC, the basis is - 102.77 with a - 1.38% spread [5] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of treasury bond futures: T2303 is 107.86 with a - 0.07% change; TF2303 is 105.76 with a - 0.05% change; T2306 is 107.88 with a - 0.06% change; TF2306 is 105.75 with a - 0.07% change [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.4568% with a - 60.00 BP change; R007 is 2.1559% with a 10.00 BP change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.6000% with a 0.00 BP change [5]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 纸浆早报 | 日期 | 2025/12/31 | 2025/12/30 | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5532.00 | 5568.00 | 5510.00 | 5630.00 | 5604.00 | | 折美元价 | 691.61 | 696.05 | 686.78 | 702.06 | 698.96 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.64655% | 1.05263% | -2.13144% | 0.46395% | -0.28470% | | 山东银星基差 | 58 | 22 | 80 | -40 | -14 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 28 | -8 | 50 | -70 | -44 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 78 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) expresses gratitude for the support received and outlines its strategic focus for 2026, emphasizing the importance of risk management, regulatory compliance, and high-quality development in the context of China's economic planning [1][3]. Group 1: Achievements in 2025 - DCE successfully launched pure benzene futures and options, and introduced monthly average price futures contracts for chemical products, enhancing its risk management tools [2]. - The exchange improved contract rules to better align with industry needs, resulting in significant enhancements in product quality [2]. - DCE reinforced regulatory measures and risk monitoring systems to ensure stable market operations [2]. - The exchange increased participation from industry clients and promoted the "insurance + futures" model to support agriculture, expanding the influence of "Dalian prices" in spot trade [2]. - DCE expanded its offerings to qualified foreign investors, increasing the number of tradable products from 14 to 27, thereby enhancing market internationalization [2]. - The exchange completed a successful transition to a new main trading center and advanced its digital transformation to improve service quality [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus for 2026 - In 2026, DCE aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on political guidance and the scientific formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The exchange will emphasize strict regulatory oversight and risk prevention to strengthen market stability [3]. - DCE plans to continue product innovation and rule optimization while enhancing the effectiveness of services to the real economy [3]. - The exchange seeks to deepen its international presence and increase the global influence of "Dalian prices" [3]. - DCE will solidify its technological capabilities and accelerate its digital transformation efforts [3].