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贵金属数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, although the precious metals market experiences high - level fluctuations due to "buy the rumor, sell the fact", factors such as the unexpected decline in the US August PPI and the cooling of the US employment market increase the probability of a Fed rate cut in September and raise the expectation of a 50bp cut, so precious metal prices are still supported. Before the rate cut is implemented, precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels, but investors should beware of increased volatility. Gold long positions can be held [5]. - In the long - term, with Fed rate cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, London gold spot decreased by 0.1% to $3641.89/ounce, London silver spot decreased by 0.6% to $41.02/ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.2% to $3680.00/ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 0.9% to $41.47/ounce. AU2510 was at 833.42 yuan/gram with a 0.1% decrease, and AG2510 was at 9796 yuan/kg with a 0.5% decrease. AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2% to 829.50 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.6% to 9771 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price spreads, from September 9 to 10, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 12.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 47.1%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 53.3%, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) decreased by 0.2%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.4%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio increased by 0.7% [5]. Position Data - As of September 9, 2025, compared with September 8, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 979.68 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.45% to 15069.6026 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 14.52% to 315796 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 16.43% to 249530 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 14.79% to 18543 contracts [5]. Inventory Data - On September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, SHFE gold inventory increased by 3.46% to 45951 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.15% to 1252170 kg. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.21% to 38912305 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.35% to 520707139 troy ounces [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On September 10, 2025, compared with September 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.08% to 7.11. The US dollar index increased by 0.33% to 97.77, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.43% to 3.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.74% to 4.08%, the VIX decreased by 0.46% to 15.04, the S&P 500 increased by 0.27% to 6512.61, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.50% to 62.77 [5]. Market Review - On September 10, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.21% at 833.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.72% at 9796 yuan/kg [5].
国泰君安期货:锌:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 08:03
2025 年 09 月 11 日 锌:区间震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22215 | 0.41% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2867 | -0.21% | | (元/吨) | | | 盘(美元/吨) | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 83724 | -16741 | 伦锌成交量(手) | 9280 | 215 | | (手) | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 103054 | -5145 | 伦锌持仓量(手) | 201219 | 1496 | | (手) | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -70 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 17.62 | 1.16 | | (元/吨) | | | 贴水(美元/吨) ...
南华金属日报:关注晚间美CPI对降息预期影响-20250911
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 04:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver may face correction pressure due to overbought technical indicators. The inflation data is not expected to support a 50BP rate cut, and economic or employment deterioration is the main driving factor. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated at high levels. Investors are waiting for the US August CPI data to guide the rate cut amplitude in mid - September. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly affected by the enhanced expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. The market focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment and independence issues, and bond market risks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3680.4 per ounce, down 0.05%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.65 per ounce, up 0.75%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 833.42 yuan per gram, up 0.21%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%. The US August PPI data supported the September rate cut expectation and did not rule out the possibility of a 50BP rate cut [2]. 3.2 Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - The expectation of a rate cut within the year has slightly declined, and the expectation of a 50BP rate cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings slightly increased by 0.27 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings were 15069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.9 tons to 1252.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US CPI data at 20:30 on Thursday. In terms of events, this week is the blackout period for Fed officials before the September 18 Fed interest rate decision. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 833.42 yuan per gram, down 1.06 yuan or 0.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various inventories and holdings, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings. For instance, SHFE gold inventory was 45951 kilograms, up 1536 kilograms or 3.46% [15]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial indicators, including the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, etc. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.8197, up 0.0573 or 0.06% [18].
国债期货日报-20250910
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 10:22
国债期货日报 2025/09/10 徐晨曦(投资咨询证号:Z0001908) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.348 | 102.39 | -0.042 | TS合约持仓(手) | 73128 | 72585 | 543 | | TF2512 | 105.445 | 105.58 | -0.135 | TF合约持仓(手) | 144218 | 145470 | -1252 | | T2512 | 107.505 | 107.785 | -0.28 | T合约持仓(手) | 230673 | 224582 | 6091 | | TL2512 | 114.87 | 115.76 | -0.89 | TL合约持仓(手) | 153937 | 144317 | 9620 | | TS基差(CTD) | -0.0418 | -0.03 ...
期货业中报揭晓:上市期货公司业绩分化,行业步入服务资本新时代
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The performance of A-share listed futures companies in the first half of 2025 shows significant divergence, with only Ruida Futures achieving growth in both revenue and net profit, while others like Nanhua Futures, Yong'an Futures, and Hongye Futures faced declines or losses [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The four listed futures companies collectively achieved a revenue of 8.027 billion yuan and a net profit of 625 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Ruida Futures reported a revenue increase of 4.49% to 1.047 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 66.49% to 228 million yuan [2][4]. - Nanhua Futures experienced a revenue drop of 58.27% to 1.101 billion yuan, but a slight net profit increase of 0.46% to 231 million yuan [4]. - Yong'an Futures had the largest revenue of 5.556 billion yuan, but it declined by 54.12%, with a net profit decrease of 44.69% to 170 million yuan [4]. - Hongye Futures faced the most severe challenges, with a revenue drop of 68.64% to 323 million yuan and a net loss of 3.6056 million yuan, reflecting a 128.17% decline in net profit [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The futures industry is undergoing a transformation from a "channel dividend" era to a "service and capital dividend" phase, necessitating core competencies in specialization, technology, and internationalization for companies to succeed [1][3]. - Despite the poor performance of A-share listed futures companies, the overall futures industry showed optimism, with a net profit of 5.074 billion yuan and a revenue of 18.676 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32% and 3.89%, respectively [2][3]. - The decline in revenue for many A-share listed companies is attributed to the impact of the "net amount method" of accounting, which has particularly affected those focused on trade [2][3].
国债期货日报:如期反弹-20250903
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 10:35
Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests a band - trading approach. It notes that on September 3, 2025, treasury bond futures rebounded as expected. Given the current situation where the 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to 1.75% and the bond market lacks catalytic factors, caution should be exercised regarding the further upside potential. It advises against chasing high prices, setting profit - taking when bottom - fishing, and keeping a small long position at low levels [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning and then declined, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again at the end of the session, with all varieties closing up. Spot bond yields generally declined. There was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion from the open market, and the funds were loose with DR001 at 1.31% [1]. - The A - share market continued to decline with a large adjustment range on this day. The morning rebound in the stock market reduced the bond market's gains, but the stock market's inability to stop the decline in the afternoon led to an expansion of the bond market's gains at the end of the session. The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, and if it enters a range - bound state in the future, its impact on the bond market will gradually weaken [2]. 2. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 03 Price | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 03 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.44 | 102.41 | 0.03 | 75575 | 74372 | 1203 | | TF2512 | 105.69 | 105.55 | 0.14 | 139553 | 138200 | 1353 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 107.93 | 0.19 | 213046 | 205357 | 7689 | | TL2512 | 117.03 | 116.61 | 0.42 | 142705 | 140312 | 2393 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0225 | - 0.04 | 0.0175 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 25604 | 21492 | 4112 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0846 | 0.0256 | 0.059 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 62433 | 52692 | 9741 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.4403 | 0.3548 | 0.0855 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 86857 | 60757 | 26100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.7408 | 0.5696 | 0.1712 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 156936 | 116176 | 40760 | [3] 3. Other Information - U.S. technology stocks led the decline in the U.S. stock market, and the 30 - year treasury bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France reached multi - year highs. Gold futures broke through $3600, hitting a record high [2]. - Trump stated that he would request the Supreme Court to make a "quick ruling" on the global tariff case. If he wins, the stock market will rise sharply; otherwise, it will experience a huge shock. Bessent predicted that the Supreme Court would support Trump's tariff policy but was also considering alternative plans [2].
贵金属数据日报-20250902
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to run on the high side. With the US July PC data in line with expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is controllable, and the decline of the August Michigan consumer confidence index, the expectation of the Fed's September interest rate cut is further strengthened. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and the ruling that most of the US government's global tariff policies are illegal, the precious metal prices have strongly rebounded. Silver has performed much stronger than gold, and multi - orders can continue to be held or go long on dips [5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, and the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, London gold spot rose 2.0% to $3478.93 per ounce, London silver spot rose 4.4% to $40.52 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $3546.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 4.8% to $41.37 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2510 rose 2.0% to 800.56 yuan per gram, and AG2510 rose 4.1% to 9775 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Regarding price differences, the spread between domestic and foreign gold (TD - London) was - 3.91 yuan per gram on September 1, 2025, with a 27.4% increase; the spread between domestic and foreign silver (TD - London) was - 28 yuan per kilogram, with a - 3.4% decrease [5]. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 28, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 977.68 tons, up 1.01%; the silver ETF - SLV was 15309.99769 tons, down 0.15%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.18%, the short positions decreased 1.96%, and the net long positions increased 0.81%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.97%, the short positions decreased 0.18%, and the net long positions increased [5]. Inventory Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.42% to 38925853 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20% to 518232360 troy ounces. Data for SHFE gold and silver inventories were not available [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 0.06% to 7.11. The US dollar index fell 0.02% to 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.83% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.23%, the VIX rose 6.44% to 15.36, the S&P 500 fell 0.64% to 6460.26, and NYMEX crude oil fell 0.48% to $64.01 [5]. Economic Data and Events - The US July core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, the highest since February, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations; the July core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations; the July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, the highest since September, in line with expectations; the July personal income monthly rate was 0.4%, in line with expectations [5]. - On August 29, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the US government's global tariff policies were illegal, and these tariff - increasing measures could be maintained until October 14 for the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and deputy minister visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5].
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250902
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for soybeans has both weak supply and demand. With the upcoming new - season harvest, price pressure is increasing. Regular auctions are effectively increasing the current supply, and discounted auctions are impacting the spot price system. The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face pressure from the new - season harvest, making it difficult for prices to rise. The futures market shows an unchanged bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Risk Strategies for Soybeans - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For planting entities with a large demand to sell newly harvested soybeans in autumn but facing significant short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean futures contract with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits. Also, when there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% ratio at a price of 50 - 60 to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: When worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, as the probability of price decline is high, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and pay attention to long - term procurement management. Focus on the A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for price guidance in autumn [2]. 3.2 Price Analysis - **Technical and Trend Analysis**: The technical side shows significant pressure, and the bearish trend remains unchanged. From August 29, 2025, to September 1, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean futures contracts increased slightly. For example, the A2511 contract rose from 3945 to 3965 (a 0.51% increase), the A2601 contract rose from 3948 to 3964 (a 0.41% increase), etc. [5]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: - **Positive Factors**: The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders' inventory clearance may be low, which limits the price decline. In September, the concentrated consumption scenarios are gradually recovering, and the demand for edible consumption is expected to pick up. The short - side positions have decreased, driving the futures price to rebound [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The quality and yield of the new - season soybeans are expected to improve, and the concentrated supply will be the main driving factor for the fundamentals, continuously pressuring prices. Regular auctions are continuously supplementing the current market supply, and low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains [6].
烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250902
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 03:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The near - term spot price range of caustic soda is relatively stable with no obvious price cuts. The delivery volume of downstream alumina plants continues to increase, but the price remains stable. Alkali plants keep reducing inventory, though the slope slows down. Supply output decreases slightly due to maintenance, which is a normal fluctuation. The cost remains stable, and the chlor - alkali profit stays above 300. Non - aluminum downstream is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the non - aluminum rigid demand is expected to increase seasonally. The future market should continue to focus on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 23.49%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 49.4% [2]. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about caustic soda price decline, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short caustic soda futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a selling position and a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2800 - 2850. They can also sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the caustic soda price rises, the spot selling price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601C3000, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. - When the purchase of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, to prevent the caustic soda price from rising and increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a buying position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2600 - 2650. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the caustic soda price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601P2600, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 2, 2025, compared with September 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 35 to 2794, with a daily increase of 1.27%; the 09 contract increased by 40 to 2528, with a daily increase of 1.61%; the 01 contract increased by 65 to 2735, with a daily increase of 2.43%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to 266; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 to - 207; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30 to - 59. The 05 - contract basis (Shandong Jinling) decreased by 35 to - 107; the 09 - contract basis decreased by 40 to 160; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 65 to - 48 [3]. Factory - Gate Prices of Different Caustic Soda Products - On September 1, 2025, for 32% caustic soda, among different brands in Shandong, Jinling's price was 2688 (unchanged), Haihua's was 2906 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 62.5 to 2875 with a daily increase of 2.2%, and Hengtong's was 2781 (unchanged). In other regions, Jiangsu Xinyu's was 3125 (unchanged), Jiangsu Jinqiao's was 2775 (unchanged), Zhejiang Zhenyang's was 3419 (unchanged), and Shaanxi Beiyuan's was 3600 (unchanged). For 50% caustic soda, Jinling's price was 2620 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 40 to 2760 with a daily increase of 1.5%, and Beiyuan's was 3420 (unchanged) [5]. Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, flake caustic soda prices in different regions remained unchanged. In Shandong, it was 3400; in North China, it was 3564; in Southwest China, it was 3590; in Central China, it was 3540; in East China, it was 3590; in Northwest China, it was 3200 [6]. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged. Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was - 68 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 13 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 94 (unchanged); Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda was 382 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was - 6 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 137 (unchanged), and 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) increased by 10 to 430 [6]. Seasonal Patterns of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The document provides seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 - contract and 01 - contract in Shandong) over different years (2023, 2024, 2025) [6][7][8].
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250901
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:31
Report Summary 1. Core View - The core contradictions include the normalization of auctions, with low - price auction grains impacting the supply and price system in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a lack of short - term bullish support factors, and the expected mid - term demand improvement is less than the pressure from the new season's listing. The concentration of short positions in the November contract has increased, showing a clear bearish attitude [3]. - Bullish factors are that the bottom - level remaining grain is almost exhausted, and the inventory clearance of traders is relatively small, which restricts the price decline. Also, the gradually recovering concentrated consumption scenarios are expected to boost the edible consumption demand [5]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, which will lead to a concentrated supply increase and put continuous pressure on prices. Low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains, and the normalization of auctions continuously supplements market supply. Additionally, when the futures price rebounds, long - side positions are reduced, and some short - side seats continue to increase short positions [5]. 2. Price Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the closing prices of most soybean contracts increased, with the November contract rising from 3927 to 3945 (up 18, or 0.46%), the January contract rising from 3931 to 3948 (up 17, or 0.43%), the March contract rising from 3937 to 3950 (up 13, or 0.33%), the May contract rising from 3980 to 3995 (up 15, or 0.38%), and the July contract rising from 3984 to 3999 (up 15, or 0.38%). The September contract decreased from 4092 to 4080 (down 12, or - 0.29%) [4]. 3. Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Long Positions** - For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure and price suppression, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean futures (contract A2511), with a short - side position ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 4000 - 4050 [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a selling ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 50 - 60 [2]. - **Procurement Management for Short Positions** - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is relatively large, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider contracts A2603 and A2605, with a long - side position, and wait for the autumn price guidance [2].