A股复盘 |人的成见是A股 / 2025.05.20 看看，是不是每天都要认真看我的复盘， 昨天刚发了新消费概念的专题， 今天 大爆发了吧！而且今天微盘股又双叒叕新高了， 周报的含金量还在上升！！ 今天520，不管是谁忘了你，大A都会在520当天给你发红包！ PS：封面图别急，后面有详细的研报！！ 话题一转，哈哈哈，今天来说一个大摩的预测——鉴于经济的韧性和关税战的暂 停， 中国 额外的财政的扩充会比预想的来得更迟，并且规模可能也更小。 大摩分析师在每周策略会上指出，关税对于中国毫无疑问是一个比较显著的需求 冲击，它会降低产出和价格。当然硬的数据会有一定的滞后性。以五一出行来 看，它很多的长途出行，都是在关税在升级之前就已经定下的。而在投资端，一 些很大的项目它一旦开启了也不会立刻的叫停。再包括一些抢出口、抢转口，再 包括一些政策宽松的滞后的效应，都使得一些硬数据的下滑至少在初期可能是比 较平缓的。 因此短期经济数据可能还比较有韧性，再叠加关税谈判的不确定性可能会维持到 7月底，甚至更长更久。 这些都意味着之前两会定下的政策空间，额外的财政的 扩充会比我们之前预想的来得更迟，并且规模可能也更小。 我们之前是预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a positive trend with all three major indices rising, indicating a strong performance in small and mid-cap stocks and an increase in market participation [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% to close at 3,380.48 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both increased by 0.77% to 10,249.17 points and 2,048.46 points respectively [1] - Over 3,800 stocks rose, reflecting high activity in small and mid-cap sectors [1] - The total trading volume increased by 832.29 billion, reaching 11,697.03 billion, indicating enhanced market participation [1] Group 2: Positive Factors - The current P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 12.6, significantly lower than major overseas indices, suggesting a relatively low valuation level for A-shares and a high margin of safety for investors [2] - Foreign investment institutions are gradually increasing their allocation to Chinese assets, with over 80% of investors at a recent Morgan Stanley conference indicating a potential increase in exposure to Chinese stocks [3] - Major state-owned banks have announced a reduction in deposit rates, and the LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, signaling a liquidity easing that aims to lower financing costs for businesses and residents [4] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The introduction of new policies for mergers and acquisitions has led to a surge in activity, with a 3.3-fold increase in the number of major asset restructuring disclosures in Q1 2025, and transaction amounts exceeding 2,000 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.6 times [5][6] - The new regulations include a fast-track review process for high-quality large-cap companies and relaxed restrictions on backdoor listings for the ChiNext, particularly supporting strategic emerging industries [6] Group 4: Identifying M&A Potential - Companies that previously terminated restructuring may have the potential to restart M&A activities [7] - Companies with new controlling shareholders may have expectations for asset injections [8] - Companies whose controlling shareholders have committed to resolving competition issues or restructuring may also present opportunities [9] - Companies under the same controlling shareholder that face IPO obstacles may seek backdoor listings [10] - Companies with controlling shareholders possessing quality technology assets are more likely to inject these into listed companies [11]

Main Index Closing Performance - As of May 20, 2025, major A-share indices closed positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3380.48 points, up 0.38%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10249.17 points, up 0.77% [1] - The North Star 50 Index showed the strongest performance, closing at 1473.99 points, up 1.22%, reaching a historical high [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.1697 trillion yuan, an increase of 83.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 3,800 stocks rising, indicating significant market profitability [1] Leading Sector Analysis: Consumption and Pharmaceuticals - The market's focus today was on the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly the pet economy, beauty care, and IP economy [2][3][4] - The pet economy sector saw significant gains, with Tianyuan Pet achieving a 20% limit-up for two consecutive days, driven by a forecast predicting the pet consumption market in urban China will exceed 400 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.6% [2] - The beauty care and IP economy sectors also performed well, with companies like Lafang and Beimi achieving limit-up, supported by government policies promoting consumption upgrades and the rapid expansion of IP businesses overseas [3] - The pharmaceutical sector was active, with companies like Sanofi and Yipin Hong reaching a 20% limit-up, driven by the innovation drug concept [4] Micro-cap Stocks Surge: Underlying Logic and Risks - The micro-cap stock index has risen over 10% this year, driven by strategic index composition, liquidity conditions, and market style shifts [6] - The index selects the smallest 400 companies, adjusting components daily to capture short-term volatility, benefiting from a high-frequency rebalancing mechanism in a liquid market [6] - The easing of deposit rates and LPR cuts (1-year LPR down to 3.0%) has led to increased liquidity, with new funds flowing into micro-cap stocks, while reduced selling pressure from major shareholders has also contributed to price increases [6] - However, potential risks include valuation bubbles and liquidity issues, as many micro-cap stocks lack profit support and are highly dependent on continued funding [7] Summary - In the short term, favorable policies (such as consumption upgrades and LPR cuts) and industry growth (pet economy and innovative drugs) are expected to support a continued structural market trend [8] - Caution is advised regarding the valuation pressures on micro-cap stocks and the risks of divergence among popular stocks [8]

1、行情 指数小幅上涨，小盘股持续走强。 题材方面，IP经济全天爆发，广博股份、京华激光、创源股份（20CM）、奥飞娱乐、实丰文化、华立科技（20CM炸）先后涨停，金马游乐、 高乐股份、金运激光、汤姆猫、德创文艺、姚记科技等集体大涨； 宠物经济继续走强，源飞宠物、天元宠物（20CM）双双2连板，依依股份、路斯股份（30CM炸）、可靠股份（20CM炸）涨停，瑞普生物、佩 蒂股份、青木科技、中宠股份等集体大涨； 珠宝饰品板块同样大涨，莱绅通灵、潮宏基、曼卡龙（20CM）先后涨停，惠丰钻石、菜百股份、周大生、力量钻石等大涨； 并购重组概念持续走强，并不断有新概念股加入，五新隧装（30CM）、金利华电（20CM）、保变电气、亚泰集团、综艺股份、湖南天雁、湖 南发展、滨海能源等集体2连板，佳合科技（30CM）、慧博云通（20CM）、梦网科技、大唐电信等涨停； 此外，饮品、电力、合成生物、化妆品等均有局部强势表现，航运、港口、化纤等跌幅居前。 截至收盘，沪指、深成指、创业板指分别收涨0.38%、0.77%、0.77%，市场超3800股上涨，1300余股下跌。 另外，北证50、微盘股指数今日双双刷新历史新高。 2、宠物经济 ...

哈喽各位老铁，这里是帮主郑重的收评时间。今儿大盘走得挺有意思，沪指晃悠着涨了0.38%，深成指和创业板更精神，都涨了0.77%，关键是量能放出来 了，说明场子里头人气在回暖。最近总有人问我"市场是不是该选方向了"，依我看啊，今儿这根放量小阳线算是给中长线布局的人递了个眼神——甭管短期 咋晃，有些板块的逻辑正越走越清晰。 要说今儿最热闹的地儿，非大消费莫属。您琢磨琢磨，宠物经济、美容护理、培育钻石这些跟"生活升级"沾边的板块全冒出来了，创源股份、可靠股份直接 20cm涨停，依依股份、拉芳家化这些名字听着接地气，可涨停起来一点不含糊。还有IP经济，郑中设计、广博股份这些票跟约好了似的往上冲，说白了， 这波炒的是"消费复苏+情绪回暖"的双响炮。咱中长线看消费板块，就得盯着老百姓兜里的钱往哪儿花——宠物粮越买越贵，护肤品讲究成分党，年轻人结 婚要买克拉钻，这些细分领域的"消费升级小趋势"，可比短期涨停更值得琢磨。 不过市场向来是有人欢喜有人愁，航运板块今儿栽了跟头，凤凰航运、宁波远洋直接跌停，军工和资源股也跟着往下掉。为啥？航运炒的是运价预期，前阵 子涨太猛了，这会儿资金调仓换股很正常；资源股受大宗商品价格波动影响， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong performance on May 20, with all three major indices rising, indicating a recovery in market confidence and active trading across various sectors [3][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% to close at 3380.48, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both increased by 0.77%, closing at 10249.17 and 2048.46 respectively [4][3]. - Over 3800 stocks in the market experienced gains, with total trading volume reaching 11,697 billion yuan, an increase of 832 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4][3]. Sector Performance - The sectors that saw significant gains included cultivated diamonds, pet economy, animal vaccines, millet economy, and plant-based meat, while the port and shipping sector faced declines [7]. - The pet economy concept saw a collective surge, with stocks like Tianyuan Pet, Yiyi Co., and Chuangyuan Co. hitting the daily limit [8]. - The IP economy concept also experienced a surge, with over 10 stocks, including Mankalon and Shifeng Culture, reaching the daily limit [9]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the automotive, cultural media, and food and beverage sectors, while outflows were noted in shipping ports, internet services, and real estate development [10]. - Specific stocks that attracted net inflows included OFILM Technology, Beingmate, and BYD, with inflows of 1.651 billion yuan, 632 million yuan, and 628 million yuan respectively [11]. - Conversely, stocks like Chengfei Integration, AVIC Chengfei, and Lijun Co. faced net outflows of 577 million yuan, 561 million yuan, and 465 million yuan respectively [12]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Guoyuan Securities noted that the index is showing a strong oscillation, with individual stocks becoming active, but breakthroughs may require new catalysts [13]. - According to Zhongtai Securities, market confidence has fully recovered, and overall activity is high, although incremental capital may flow slowly without event-driven catalysts [13]. - The Qianhai Bourbon Fund anticipates a structural upward trend in the market, with a potential challenge to previous highs after a mild pullback [13].

新华财经北京5月20日电 （胡晨曦）A股三大指数5月20日全天冲高回落，三大指数均小幅收涨。大小指 数走势分化，北证50指数涨1.22%、微盘股指数涨2.04%，均创历史新高。盘面上，大消费板块全天活 跃，美容护理、食品饮料、宠物经济掀涨停潮，依依股份、拉芳家化、贝因美、祖名股份、源飞宠物等 多股涨停；创新药概念股震荡走高，一品红等涨停；IP经济概念走强，实丰文化、高乐股份等涨停。下 跌方面，航运板块迎来调整，凤凰航运、连云港等跌停。 至收盘时，上证指数报3380.48点，涨幅0.38%，成交额约4503亿元；深证成指报10249.17点，涨幅 0.77%，成交额约7194亿元；创业板指报2048.46点，涨幅0.77%，成交额约3242亿元；北证50指数报 1473.99点，涨幅1.22%，成交额约416.9亿元。 热点板块 盘面上，生物制品、美容护理、养殖业、培育钻石、宠物经济、IP经济等板块和概念股涨幅居前；港口 航运、银行、钢铁、PEEK材料、中船系、氟化工等板块和概念股跌幅居前。 机构观点 巨丰投顾：周二市场震荡反弹，宠物经济涨幅居前。利率下行周期以及居民财富搬家趋势下，结构性机 会将进一步显现。对 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market saw a positive trend on May 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index also up by 0.77 [1][2] - Over 3,800 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1][2] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included cultivated diamonds, pet economy, animal vaccines, millet economy, and plant-based meat, which all saw significant increases [1][2] - Conversely, the port and shipping sector led the declines, along with the Chengfei concept and PEEK materials sectors [1][2] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed net inflows into the automotive, cultural media, and food and beverage sectors, while there were net outflows from the shipping, internet services, and real estate development sectors [5] - Specific stocks that attracted net inflows included OFILM Technology, Beingmate, and BYD, with inflows of 1.651 billion, 632 million, and 628 million respectively [6] - Stocks that faced net outflows included Chengfei Integration, AVIC Chengfei, and Lijun Shares, with outflows of 577 million, 561 million, and 465 million respectively [7] Institutional Insights - Guoyuan Securities noted that the index is showing a strong oscillation, with individual stocks becoming active, but breakthroughs require new catalysts [8] - Zhongtai Securities mentioned that market confidence has fully recovered, with high overall activity, but incremental capital may flow slowly without event-driven catalysts, making rapid market increases unlikely [9] - The market is expected to maintain a structural upward trend in the short term, with a potential challenge to previous highs around the end of May [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight increase with the three major indices showing mixed performance, while the North Stock Exchange 50 and Micro-Stock Index reached historical highs [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.17 trillion, an increase of 83.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in new consumption sectors such as pet economy, beauty care, and IP economy, saw significant gains, with multiple stocks like Beiningmei hitting the daily limit [1] - Innovative drug concept stocks also showed volatility with stocks like Yipin Hong reaching the daily limit [1] - M&A and restructuring concept stocks maintained strong performance, with Tianqimo hitting the daily limit [1] - Conversely, high-position stocks faced a collective decline, with stocks like Yushanxia A hitting the daily limit down [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% to close at 3380.48 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.77%, closing at 10249.17 [2] - The ChiNext Index also saw a rise of 0.77%, closing at 2048.46 [2] Additional Metrics - The limit-up rate was recorded at 72.00%, with 77 stocks hitting the limit [5] - The high opening rate was 82%, and the profit rate stood at 67% [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound in early trading on May 20, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The North Star 50 Index rose by 1.37%, reaching a historical high. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 726.7 billion, an increase of 19.1 billion from the previous trading day [1] - Consumer and pharmaceutical sectors were the main focus, with a majority of stocks rising. The pet economy, beauty care, and IP economy sectors saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.04% by the end of the trading session [1] Pet Economy - According to a report by Pet Read, the urban pet consumption market in China is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.6% from 2015 to 2027 [3] - The pet economy sector saw a strong performance, with stocks like Reliable Co., Tianyuan Pet, and Daqian Ecology hitting the daily limit. The overall pet economy index rose by 8.75% [2][15] - The growth of the pet economy is driven by industry expansion and domestic substitution, with large domestic pet food companies expected to increase their market share [3] IP Economy - The IP economy sector also experienced significant growth, with stocks such as Bubble Mart and Zhengzhong Design achieving daily limits. Bubble Mart's market capitalization surpassed 280 billion Hong Kong dollars, setting a new historical high [7][18] - The overall performance of the IP economy stocks was bolstered by the popularity of cultural and creative products, with several companies in this sector seeing substantial gains [3][18] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - On May 20, Sanofi announced a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the exclusive development, production, and commercialization of a product, indicating a significant increase in the scale of domestic innovative drug transactions [11][19] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector was active, with stocks like Yipin Hong and Huahai Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit. The overall market for innovative drugs is expected to continue its upward trend [11][20]