Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The framework identifies the dominant market style by comparing the intrinsic attributes of assets, which are tied to their industry lifecycle stages. It prioritizes assets based on the sequence of growth rate (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend yield (D) to determine the most advantageous assets and focuses on the most promising sectors[5][6][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages for equity assets: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and distressed value[5] 2. Compare assets globally to identify advantageous ones based on their intrinsic characteristics[5] 3. Use the priority sequence g > ROE > D to evaluate whether good assets exist and whether they are overvalued[5][6] 4. Focus on sectors with the most advantageous characteristics in the current market[5][6] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotations since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 26.70%[16] 2. Model Name: Asset Comparison Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model categorizes assets into primary and secondary groups. Primary assets include actual growth, expected growth, and profitability assets. Secondary assets are prioritized based on crowding levels and fundamental factors[9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Classify assets into primary (expected growth, actual growth, profitability) and secondary (quality dividend, value dividend, distressed value) categories[9] 2. Allocate market funds to primary assets when any of them show an advantage; otherwise, shift to secondary assets[9] 3. Rank secondary assets by crowding levels and fundamental factors, with the order: quality dividend > value dividend > distressed value[9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - Annualized return: 26.70% since 2009[16] - Historical performance: Positive excess returns in most years, with limited effectiveness in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016[16][19] - Excess returns by year: - 2009: 51% - 2010: 14% - 2013: 36% - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62%[19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the industry lifecycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use analysts' forecasted growth rates as the primary input[6] 2. Calculate the spread (Δgf) between top and bottom groups to assess the trend of expected growth[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown consistent expansion, with top groups driving the increase, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on performance momentum (Δg) during transition and growth phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the spread (Δg) between top and bottom groups based on actual growth rates[25] 2. Monitor the trend of Δg to identify growth opportunities in the market[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates valuation levels using the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the PB-ROE residuals for each industry[40] 2. Rank industries based on residuals to identify undervalued high-ROE sectors[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's advantage has declined, and its crowding level remains low, suggesting limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify high-quality dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE scores for each industry[43] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in specific years, such as 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP scores for each industry[47] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated strong excess returns in years like 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Factor Name: Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies industries with low price-to-book ratios (PB) and small market capitalization (SIZE), focusing on stagnation and recession phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE scores for each industry[51] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[51] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns during periods like 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Expected Growth (gf) - Δgf continues to expand, driven by top-tier groups, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Actual Growth (g) - Δg shows gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Profitability (ROE) - ROE advantage continues to decline, with low crowding levels and limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - Significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Value Dividend (DP+BP) - Strong excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - Significant excess returns during 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51]

Core Viewpoint - The company clarified that there is no business overlap between Hongye Futures and Suhao Hongye, despite market expectations for restructuring following Suhao Holdings' completion of its restructuring in July 2023 [1] Group 1 - An investor inquired about the restructuring path for Hongye Futures in light of the recent restructuring of Suhao Holdings and the commitment to resolve industry competition by September 2025 [1] - The company has undergone board changes and the establishment of new committees since 2025, which has led to speculation about preparations for restructuring [1] - The company responded that there is no overlap in business between Hongye Futures and Suhao Hongye, addressing the investor's concerns about potential restructuring [1]

Group 1: Core Views - Warren Buffett expresses strong confidence in the future economic growth of both Japan and the United States, believing they will continue to expand over the next 20 to 50 years [1] - Buffett emphasizes the importance of long-term growth potential and the solid economic fundamentals of these countries [1] Group 2: United States Economic Strengths - The United States is recognized as the world's largest economy, with significant strengths in innovation, particularly in the technology sector, exemplified by companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon [3][4] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is highlighted, showcasing its ability to recover from crises such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - The U.S. financial sector, including Wall Street and the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, reinforces its dominant position in the global economy [4] Group 3: Japan's Unique Advantages - Despite Japan's economic stagnation since the 1990s, Buffett remains optimistic due to the country's corporate governance reforms aimed at increasing transparency and efficiency [6] - Japanese companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends and stock buybacks, attracting foreign investment [6] - Japan's strengths in technology innovation, particularly in robotics and automation, position it favorably in the global market [7] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities in China - Buffett acknowledges China's remarkable economic achievements over the past 50 to 60 years, noting its rapid growth since the 1978 reforms [9] - However, China faces significant challenges, including an aging population projected to exceed 30% by 2050, which could strain the labor market and social security systems [9][11] - China's high debt levels among local governments and enterprises pose risks to its economic development [11] Group 5: Future Economic Landscape - The U.S. is expected to maintain its global economic leadership due to its advantages in technology, financial services, and higher education, with potential competition from China for the top GDP position by 2060 [11] - China is transitioning from a manufacturing-based economy to one focused on consumption and services, which could revitalize its economy, but it must address debt issues and demographic challenges [13][14] - Buffett's investment philosophy favors stable, mature economies like the U.S. and Japan, while he remains cautious about investing in China due to its differing economic and regulatory environment [14]

Core Insights - The implementation of new tariffs on imports to the U.S. has raised significant concerns about the health of the American economy, coinciding with the release of troubling employment data [1][3] - The unexpected delay in the tariff policy's implementation has led to speculation regarding the political motivations behind it [3] - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic decline, losing over $1.11 trillion in market value due to revised employment data that indicated economic weakness [5] Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported a non-farm payroll increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 100,000 [5] - The revisions for previous months were stark, with June's job additions revised down from 147,000 to just 14,000, and May's data adjusted down to 19,000, indicating a troubling trend of weak job growth [5] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has dropped to 35,000, marking the worst performance since 2021 [5] Political Implications - Following the release of the employment report, former President Trump dismissed the head of the Labor Statistics Bureau, suggesting political manipulation of the data to favor the Biden administration [7] - Trump's comments reflect a contradiction, as he criticized the data's accuracy while also implying that previous positive employment figures may have been inflated [7] - The market's confidence is now under scrutiny, particularly regarding the ability of the newly appointed Labor Statistics Bureau head to operate independently amid political pressures [7] Economic Outlook - The current economic situation is more precarious than portrayed, with rising inflation rates reported for the second consecutive month [9] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the burden of tariffs imposed by Trump will eventually be passed on to American consumers, highlighting the limitations of tariffs as an economic tool [9] - The effectiveness of maintaining tariff policies while managing interest rates poses a complex challenge for the economy [9]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Brazil decreased to 5.8% in Q2 2025, the lowest since 2012, down from 7.0% in Q1 and 6.9% year-on-year [1] - The number of unemployed individuals reached 6.3 million, a reduction of over 1.3 million from Q1, representing a decline of 17.4% [1] - The total employment reached 102.3 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1] Group 2 - The average real monthly salary in Brazil rose to 3,477 reais in Q2, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% and a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, marking a historical high [2] - The total wage bill reached 351.2 billion reais, also a record high, with a quarterly increase of 2.9% and an annual increase of 5.9% [2] - The number of discouraged workers, or those who have stopped looking for jobs, fell to 2.8 million, the lowest since 2016, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.7% [2] Group 3 - The public sector saw significant growth, particularly in education, with the number of public employees reaching 12.8 million, a quarterly increase of 5.0% and an annual increase of 3.4% [2] - The informal employment rate decreased to 37.8%, with the number of informal workers at 38.7 million, the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The Brazilian Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15% to address inflation challenges amid rising income levels and increased service prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 5th Hong Kong Shopping Festival, organized by the Chinese Manufacturers' Association of Hong Kong, opened on August 1, showcasing a strong recovery in the tourism and retail sectors, with an expected increase in consumer spending and business opportunities [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The shopping festival lasts for four days and features eight themed exhibition areas with 300 booths, offering thousands of products including gourmet food, household appliances, children's products, and health supplements [1] - The event aims to encourage local consumption and attract more tourists to Hong Kong, thereby injecting vitality into the local economy [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development of the Hong Kong SAR Government reported approximately 24 million visitors to Hong Kong in the first half of the year, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend in the tourism industry [1] - The event is positioned as an important platform for Hong Kong and mainland enterprises to innovate consumer experiences and adapt to the changing retail landscape [1] Group 3: Exhibitor Expectations - A representative from Guangchanglong Trading Co., which has participated for four consecutive years, anticipates a 20% increase in revenue this year, expressing optimism about the event's effectiveness [1] - New features such as the "Hometown Flavor Zone" and "Lychee Garden Play Area" are introduced to promote local specialties from ten provinces in mainland China and nostalgic "Hong Kong flavor culture," enhancing brand-consumer connections [1]

Core Points - The Shanghai Oriental Hub International Business Cooperation Zone allows global invitees with valid invitations to enter without a visa, staying for 30 days with the option to extend [1][3] - The zone aims to become a new high ground for institutional opening in China, showcasing Shanghai's role as a pioneer in reform and opening up [1][2] - The area covers approximately 0.88 square kilometers, strategically located near major transport hubs like Pudong International Airport and Shanghai East Station [2] Regulatory Framework - The management measures for the cooperation zone include the "Shanghai Oriental Hub International Business Cooperation Zone Management Measures," "Interim Measures for Customs Supervision of the Shanghai Oriental Hub," and "Interim Regulations on Access Management by the National Immigration Administration" [2][3] - The zone implements a "one line open, one line controlled" policy, extending from goods to natural persons, facilitating cross-border movement [2][3] Facilitation of Business Activities - The cooperation zone supports international business activities by allowing global invitees to enter without a visa, promoting business meetings, negotiations, and product launches [4] - It provides a full chain of services for international business exchanges and technological cooperation, enabling companies to engage in cross-border research and development [5] Infrastructure and Services - The zone is planning high-standard innovation and research facilities to support key industries such as biomedicine, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, aerospace, and new materials [5] - It aims to enhance the internationalization of professional services, allowing foreign professionals with recognized qualifications to provide services in accounting, finance, law, and consulting [5] Continuous Innovation - The cooperation zone is positioned as a "testing ground" for institutional innovation, with plans to optimize regulations and services based on domestic and international best practices [6] - It will introduce multi-language services, international aviation services, and various payment methods to facilitate international business exchanges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to conduct hedging activities through its subsidiaries to mitigate the adverse effects of price fluctuations on its operations and enhance risk resilience [1][3]. Summary by Sections Transaction Purpose - The subsidiaries of the company plan to engage in hedging activities to reduce losses from unfavorable price changes and maintain stable operations [1][3]. Transaction Amount - The maximum amount of margin and premiums to be utilized for the hedging activities will not exceed 4.0% of the company's most recent audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1][3]. Transaction Types and Locations - The hedging activities will involve futures contracts related to the company's operations, including but not limited to logs, pulp, and various non-ferrous metals, conducted on legal exchanges such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange [2][5]. Related Party Transactions - The transaction constitutes a related party transaction as it involves 弘业期货, a company controlled by the company's major shareholder, 苏豪控股集团 [2][6]. Approval Procedures - The transaction has been reviewed and approved by various committees and boards within the company, including the audit, compliance, and risk control committee, and will be submitted for approval at the upcoming shareholders' meeting [3][6][7]. Financial Health of Related Party - 弘业期货 has demonstrated strong financial health, with total assets of approximately 1,169.94 million and net assets of about 187.68 million as of December 31, 2024 [8][9]. Impact on Company - The hedging activities are expected to enhance the company's risk management capabilities without affecting its normal business operations or harming the interests of shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [10][14]. Accounting Treatment - The company will follow relevant accounting standards for financial instruments and hedging activities to ensure proper financial reporting [14].

Core Viewpoint - The independent directors of Jiangsu Huihong International Group Co., Ltd. have reviewed and approved the proposal for the subsidiary to engage in hedging business and related transactions, emphasizing that the transactions are based on actual operational needs and aim to mitigate market price fluctuations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Proposal for Hedging Business and Related Transactions - The proposal involves Jiangsu Suhao Zhongjin Development Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Suhao Zhongtian Holdings Co., Ltd. engaging in hedging activities through Hongye Futures, which is a subsidiary of the controlling shareholder Suhao Holding Group [1]. - The independent directors concluded that the transactions are necessary for operational needs and are designed to reduce uncertainties caused by market price volatility, thereby enhancing the company's overall risk resistance [1]. - The transactions adhere to principles of voluntariness, equality, and fairness, ensuring that there is no harm to the interests of the company and all shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [1].

Core Points - The new tariffs announced by President Trump have led to an average tariff rate of 15%, the highest since the 1930s, significantly impacting global trade dynamics [1][10] - Despite initial concerns, the global economy has performed better than expected following the tariff announcements, with some Asian economies experiencing GDP growth [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs remains high, with potential changes to tariffs on key products and ongoing legal reviews of the tariff policies [5][11] Tariff Details - The revised tariffs include a minimum rate of 10% and higher rates of 15% for countries with trade surpluses with the U.S. [1][7] - Notable increases include a punitive 39% tariff on Swiss imports and a 35% tariff on certain Canadian goods [5][10] - The average U.S. tariff rate is projected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% by August 1, compared to just 2.3% before Trump's re-election [7][10] Economic Impact - Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate has increased by 12.8 percentage points since Trump took office, potentially leading to a 1.8% decline in U.S. GDP over the next two to three years [10][13] - The tariffs are expected to raise costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, leading to reduced purchasing power [7][13] - The tariffs may also create downward risks for exporters reliant on U.S. demand, particularly affecting countries like Switzerland facing high tariffs [10][11] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new tariffs, Asian stock markets fell by 0.7%, and the European Stoxx 600 index dropped over 1% [5][10] - The market's initial reaction was less severe compared to the volatility seen during the April tariff announcements [5][10] Future Considerations - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as the new tariffs may lead to inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy decisions [14][15] - There is a possibility of further tariff adjustments and negotiations, particularly concerning China, as the U.S. seeks to maintain a balance in trade relations [10][15]