二是聚力品牌培育，驱动价值链向高端攀升。各地应鼓励和引导企业加大研发投入，强化核心技术创新 与设计能力提升，培育一批在国际上立得住、叫得响的"中国品牌"。通过提供品牌诊断、国际认证、知 识产权保护等专业化服务，支持企业利用跨境电商平台讲好品牌故事，实现从"卖产品"向"卖品牌""卖 标准"的转变，全面提升中国在全球贸易价值链中的地位。 10月15日，第138届中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）拉开帷幕。万商云集的广交会被视为中国外贸 的"晴雨表"和"风向标"，是观察中国经济乃至全球贸易的重要窗口。从相关数据来看，本届广交会的展 览面积、展位总数、参展企业数量均创历史新高。 另据海关总署10月13日最新数据显示，今年第三季度，我国货物贸易进出口同比增长6%，已连续8个季 度保持同比增长。这份亮眼"成绩单"背后，是中国外贸通过持续的结构优化与业态创新，不断积聚新动 能、开拓新赛道，展现出强劲韧性和澎湃活力。 我国外贸在复杂的外部环境下延续稳中向好的发展势头，实属不易。笔者认为，要巩固这一向好势头并 不断实现新突破，各方可从以下三方面发力赢得长远主动，为外贸高质量发展注入持久动能。 一是深化业态创新，构筑数字贸易新优势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has commenced, showcasing record exhibition area, total booths, and participating enterprises, reflecting China's robust foreign trade performance and economic resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In Q3, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 6% year-on-year, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [1]. - The fair serves as a barometer for China's foreign trade and global trade dynamics, indicating strong momentum despite complex external conditions [1]. Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - **Deepening Business Model Innovation**: Emphasis on supporting cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses, leveraging AI and big data for global supply chain optimization and precise marketing [1][2]. - **Brand Development**: Encouragement for enterprises to increase R&D investment and enhance core technology and design capabilities, aiming to cultivate internationally recognized "Chinese brands" [2]. - **Optimizing Business Environment**: Continuous implementation of stable foreign trade policies to improve efficiency in customs, tax refunds, and financing, while enhancing the effectiveness of international exhibitions [2].

Core Viewpoints - In September, China's exports in USD terms increased by 8.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 7.1% and the previous month's 4.4% [2][15] - The increase in exports is attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, an increase in working days, and a marginal improvement in external demand, as indicated by the PMI new export orders index reaching its highest level in nearly five years [4][7] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, exports may experience fluctuations due to base effects, with expectations of continued strength in the EU, ASEAN, and Africa, while the US remains weak [4][9] Group 1: September Export Performance - September exports exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, supported by a low base from the previous year and a favorable working day count [4][15] - The average year-on-year growth over the past two years was 5.3%, lower than August's 6.5%, indicating a potential slowdown in growth momentum [7][15] - The PMI new export orders index for September rose to 47.8%, the highest in nearly five years, reflecting resilience in external demand [7][15] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the US showed a significant year-on-year decline of 26.8%, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 14%, 15.8%, and 56.8% respectively [22][54] - The rebound in exports to Africa was notable, with a month-on-month increase of 20.3%, while exports to ASEAN experienced a seasonal decline [23][54] - The overall trend indicates that while the US remains weak, the EU, ASEAN, and Africa continue to show strength in demand [9][54] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The WTO has revised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 from 1.8% to 0.5%, primarily due to the gradual impact of tariffs and the diminishing effect of demand front-loading [10][29] - The core concern regarding tariffs is the potential β risk, which could lead to a collapse in US demand and a subsequent decline in global trade demand; however, current indicators suggest this risk remains low [5][29] - Observations indicate that neither the US nor the EU has shown significant signs of "import grabbing" from China, with US imports primarily driven by durable goods purchases without substantial inventory accumulation [11][41]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of China's export and import data, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the global economic environment. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Strong Export Performance**: In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, driven by a low base from the previous year and a recovery in external demand. [2][3] 2. **Resilience in Global Electronics Cycle**: The export growth is supported by a robust global electronics cycle, with integrated circuit exports maintaining a growth rate of around 30%. [3] 3. **Demand from Emerging Economies**: Strong demand from emerging economies such as India, Latin America, and ASEAN has been a significant driver of export growth. [3] 4. **Improvement in China-Europe Trade**: Continuous improvement in China-Europe bilateral trade since Q2, alongside a mild recovery in the Eurozone economy, has created demand opportunities for Chinese consumer goods. [3] 5. **Pressure Relief for Foreign Trade Enterprises**: Recent increases in PPI and the appreciation of the RMB have alleviated the pressure on foreign trade enterprises to exchange price for volume, although uncertainties from U.S.-China trade tensions remain. [3][4] Trade Tensions and Future Outlook 1. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Tensions**: The intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions may affect future foreign trade dynamics, with the U.S. expanding its export control list and imposing tariffs. [4][6] 2. **Limited Effectiveness of Tariffs**: Despite the planned increase in tariffs ranging from 10% to 100%, the actual impact of these measures has been limited, and it is unrealistic to exclude China from the global supply chain through tariffs. [4][6] 3. **Short-term and Long-term Perspectives**: In the short term, trade tensions may escalate, but long-term exclusion of China from global supply chains is deemed impractical. [6][7] Import Signals 1. **Strong Demand for Precious Metals**: There is strong demand for precious metals from Hong Kong, accounting for approximately 80% of imports. [5] 2. **Rapid Growth in Resource Imports**: Imports of metal minerals and energy products from resource-rich countries like Russia, Africa, and Latin America have seen rapid growth. [5] 3. **Weakness in Domestic Demand**: Imports related to domestic demand, such as machine tools, computer equipment, and cosmetics, remain low, indicating ongoing pressure on domestic consumption. [5] Additional Considerations 1. **Monitoring Future Developments**: Close attention is needed on the outcomes of the APEC meeting, U.S.-China summit discussions, and the implementation of U.S. tariff adjustments on October 1. [7]

Group 1: Export Performance - In September, China's exports in USD terms increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 7.1% and significantly higher than August's 4.4%[12] - The year-on-year average for September over two years was 5.3%, lower than August's 6.5%[12] - The increase in exports was supported by a low base effect from last year, where September exports had a month-on-month decline of -1.6%[4] Group 2: Import Performance - September imports also saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, surpassing the expected 1.5% and August's 1.3%[62] - Month-on-month, imports rose by 8.5%, exceeding historical averages for the past 5, 10, and 20 years[62] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The PMI new export orders index for China rose to 47.8% in September, the highest in nearly five years, indicating resilience in export demand[4] - The global trade outlook for 2026 has been revised down from 1.8% to 0.5% due to the gradual impact of tariffs and the diminishing demand front-loading phenomenon[26] Group 4: Regional Export Trends - Exports to the US showed a year-on-year decline of -26.8%, while exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 14%, 15.8%, and 56.8% respectively[19] - The export growth momentum to the US remains at historically low levels, with a three-month average month-on-month change of -3.1%[20]

今年上半年，山东省外贸基本盘稳固。上半年，货物进出口总额1.73万亿元，增长6.8%。其中，出口 1.05万亿元，增长6.0%；进口6764.1亿元，增长8.1%。贸易结构不断优化，上半年，一般贸易进出口增 长6.5%，占进出口总额的65.4%。机电产品出口增长10.8%，占出口总额的48.2%。民营企业进出口增长 7.7%，占进出口总额的76.1%。 （编辑：卢志坤 审核：童海华 校对：翟军） 据山东省统计局公布的统计公报显示，2024年，山东全年货物进出口总值3.38万亿元。其中，出口2.08 万亿元，进口1.30万亿元。出口商品中，机电产品出口9762.8亿元，占出口总值的比重为46.9%。民营 企业进出口2.53万亿元，占进出口总值的比重为75.0%。全年对共建"一带一路"国家和地区进出口总值 2.09万亿元，占全省进出口总值的比重为61.9%，均为"一带一路"倡议提出以来的最高水平。完成投资 23.0亿美元，承包工程完成营业额91.1亿美元。 2024年，山东对主要国家和地区货物进出口份额中，进出口总值从高到低依次为东盟6890.6亿元、美国 3308.8亿元、欧盟3080.4亿元、韩国2992.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's exports to the United States have sharply decreased by over 40% in the first ten days of October, marking a significant decline in trade relations due to the implementation of U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Export Trends - The United States has fallen from being South Korea's second-largest export market to the third-largest since July [1] - The recent statistics indicate a notable drop in South Korea's exports to the U.S., which has been a long-standing trading partner [1] Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The South Korean won has experienced significant volatility, prompting the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea to issue a joint statement expressing concern over the currency's fluctuations [1] - This marks the first verbal intervention regarding the exchange rate by South Korean authorities in one year and six months, highlighting the seriousness of the situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade achieved a record high in the first three quarters of 2025, with total imports and exports reaching 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1][18]. Trade Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's exports amounted to 19.95 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.1%, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth, while imports totaled 13.66 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.2% [18]. - Trade with ASEAN reached 5.57 trillion yuan, up 9.6%, accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade, maintaining ASEAN's position as China's largest trading partner [3][24]. Global Trade Position - As of the first seven months of 2025, China's share of global goods trade stood at 11.8%, reinforcing its status as the world's largest goods trading nation [4][11]. Trade Resilience - Despite facing a challenging external environment, China's goods trade demonstrated strong resilience, characterized by stable trade performance, new growth drivers, and proactive foreign trade entities [7][9]. - The number of foreign trade entities with import and export performance reached 700,000, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [27]. Export Structure and Growth - The export structure is continuously optimizing, with industrial robot exports increasing by 54.9% and wind power equipment exports growing by 23.9% in the first three quarters [11][25]. - Processing trade reached 6.18 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, representing 18.4% of total foreign trade, and is moving towards higher value-added segments [25]. Business Confidence - Recent surveys indicate that the export enterprise confidence index has risen for five consecutive months, while the import enterprise confidence index has increased for three months [13][27]. - Private enterprises accounted for 19.16 trillion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 7.8%, and have shown continuous growth for 22 consecutive quarters, solidifying their role as the backbone of foreign trade [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and the economy has entered the flat part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Import - In September, the import amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [4]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 5.0% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products decreased by 10.3% year - on - year and 1.9% month - on - month; rare earth decreased by 9.2% year - on - year and increased by 26.8% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 2.8% year - on - year and increased by 10.8% month - on - month; basic metals increased by 16.1% year - on - year and 9.0% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 10.3% year - on - year and 14.2% month - on - month, with automobile products decreasing by 29.8% year - on - year and 7.5% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 14.2% year - on - year and 18.1% month - on - month [4]. - By country or region, in August, the top three in terms of import value were ASEAN, the EU, and Latin America. ASEAN's import value decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 11.4% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 10.3% month - on - month; Latin America's increased by 18.0% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. China Hong Kong, the UK, and India had relatively large year - on - year changes, at +304.2%, +25.5%, and +23.4% respectively [4]. 3.2 Export - In September, the export amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, and the month - on - month increase continued for two consecutive months [5]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 7.2% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products increased by 18.2% year - on - year and decreased by 4.7% month - on - month; rare earth increased by 97.1% year - on - year and 8.3% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 4.0% year - on - year and 6.6% month - on - month; basic metals decreased by 2.0% year - on - year and increased by 5.3% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 12.7% year - on - year and 5.2% month - on - month, with automobile products increasing by 8.7% year - on - year and decreasing by 2.9% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 11.9% year - on - year and 13.2% month - on - month. The export product structure is constantly optimizing and innovating, with labor - intensive products decreasing year - on - year and机电 and high - tech products increasing year - on - year [5]. - By country or region, in September, the top three in terms of export value were ASEAN, the EU, and China Hong Kong. ASEAN's export value increased by 15.6% year - on - year and decreased by 6.1% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 14.2% year - on - year and decreased by 7.1% month - on - month; China Hong Kong's increased by 19.4% year - on - year and 28.0% month - on - month. Affected by tariffs and pre - export rushes, exports to the US decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports to the EU and ASEAN still maintained double - digit year - on - year growth [5]. 3.3 Market - On October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November, causing bond yields to decline rapidly on October 11. As Trump's attitude changed and tariff negotiations cooled down, market risk appetite recovered, and on October 13, the yields of interest - rate bonds oscillated and then rose [6]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In September, the trade surplus increased by 10.6% year - on - year and decreased by 11.6% month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the trade surplus increased by 26.0% year - on - year [3].

（原标题：8月份德国对华出口环比增长5.4%，对美出口环比下降2.5%） 8月份德国出口总额为1297亿欧元，环比下降0.5%，同比下降0.7%。对华出口环比增长5.4%至68亿 欧元，对美出口环比下降2.5%至109亿欧元，对欧盟国家出口环比下降2.5%至725亿欧元，对英出口环 比下降6.5%至65亿欧元。当月德国进口总额为1125亿欧元，环比下降1.3%，同比增长3.5%。中国依然 是德最大进口来源国，8月德自华进口135亿欧元，环比下降4.5%。 ...