Core Insights - Guangxi Fantang Technology Co., Ltd. has launched the upgraded Fantang E-commerce Platform 2.0, enhancing supply chain efficiency in the sugar industry and innovating the domestic sugar circulation system [1][2] - The platform aims to meet diverse customer needs through various purchasing and sales models, contributing to the construction of a unified national sugar market [1] Group 1: Platform Features - The Fantang E-commerce Platform 2.0 includes five online purchasing and sales models: spot listing, spot auction, category price difference, capacity pre-sale, and Fantang basis zone, addressing the diverse needs of industry participants [1][2] - The platform has expanded its product categories from Guangxi white sugar to include Yunnan sugar, Zhanjiang sugar, beet sugar, and various by-products, enhancing its integrated service capabilities [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Management - The new platform addresses long-standing issues in Guangxi white sugar warehousing, such as high circulation risks and unclear rights for social handling and delivery, by offering comprehensive warehousing and financial services [2] - Services include procurement on behalf of clients, deferred settlement, storage and custody of goods, warehouse receipt handling, quality analysis, and financing services, aiming to standardize warehousing management and improve supply chain efficiency [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic sugar market has undergone significant changes, with increased interconnectivity between domestic and international markets, leading to heightened price volatility and greater demands for risk management capabilities [3] - The Fantang E-commerce Platform is positioned as a crucial link between industry participants, continuously innovating its service system to adapt to evolving market demands and enhance industry development [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, which will continue to suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. However, in the short - term, the supply - side pressure has been largely reflected. As the raw sugar price continues to fall, the narrowing sugar - ethanol price difference will increase the uncertainty of Brazil's sugar - making ratio and estimated production, limiting the downside space of raw sugar and presenting a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound. Attention should be paid to India's export and ethanol policies. If India's increased production cannot be converted into exports, the trade flow may not increase significantly in the new season, and there may be a phased rebound opportunity for the outer market after the fourth quarter [5][53]. - For Zhengzhou sugar, the sales and production progress of domestic sugar this season has been consistently fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low in the same period, making the spot price relatively firm. However, as the outer market weakens, the profit from out - of - quota imports has rebounded to a high level in the same period. The arrival of subsequent shipments will exert continuous pressure. The supply pressure at the import end is expected to increase significantly from July to August, limiting the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, due to the fast inventory depletion of sugar mills this year and the possibility of a delayed start of the new season, there may be a local inventory shortage in October, which may boost domestic sugar prices. But the production in the new season is expected to change little year - on - year, and the downward pressure on sugar prices will increase as new sugar is launched, so a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [6][54]. - In the short - term, it is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying within the range, and maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium - and long - term [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 First - Half White Sugar Market Review - In 2025, sufficient rainfall in Brazil in early January and India's resumption of exports pushed the raw sugar price to continuously hit bottom, breaking the 18 - cent per pound support level. However, the sharp drop in Brazil's sugar production at the end of the season and the downward revision of India's sugar production estimate drove the raw sugar futures price to rebound after the Spring Festival, leading to the strengthening of Zhengzhou sugar. At the end of February, after the delivery of the ICE raw sugar 03 contract, the outer market stopped rising due to delivery issues and returned to a downward trend. Then, affected by India's further downward - revised production estimate and dry weather in Brazil, it rebounded to around 20 cents per pound. Zhengzhou sugar also strengthened following the raw sugar, with the main contract reaching a maximum of around 6,200 yuan per ton. In April, the start of Brazil's new season with an optimistic production outlook pressured the outer market to fall again. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar was relatively resilient due to the continuous drought in Guangxi from autumn to spring, showing a pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness. Since May, both domestic and foreign sugar prices have declined in tandem. Although Brazil's bi - weekly production data at the beginning of the new season showed a year - on - year decline in sugar production in the central - southern region and low yields, the market's strong expectation of overall sugar production increase in Brazil in the 25/26 season limited the boost to the market. The expectation of increased supply continuously suppressed the raw sugar futures price. Abundant rainfall in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere strengthened the expectation of global production increase in the new season, pushing the raw sugar futures price down to around 16 cents per pound. In China, due to the improvement of rainfall in Guangxi since late April, the drought in sugarcane was basically relieved, and the expectation of imports increased after the out - of - quota import profit window opened. Zhengzhou sugar's main contract followed the outer market down to around 5,600 yuan per ton. Since mid - June, the raw sugar futures price has gradually stopped falling and stabilized. In China, due to favorable sales and production data, the spot price was firm, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price also rebounded driven by the stabilization of the outer market [12]. 3.2 International Sugar Market Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil: Narrowing Sugar - Ethanol Price Difference, Risk of High Sugar - Making Ratio Decline - In the first half of June, affected by rainfall on the harvesting progress, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased significantly year - on - year. As of June 16, 2025, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region was 163.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.33%; the cumulative sugar production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.63% [16]. - Current institutions' estimates of Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season vary widely, ranging from 39.3 million to 43.3 million tons, but most hold the view of a slight increase. The international market's increasing dependence on Brazil's supply means that changes in Brazil's estimated production may cause sharp fluctuations in sugar prices. Currently, only the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season has risen to a high level, while the data on sugarcane yield per unit and sugar content are poor, so it is necessary to continuously track later production data and estimated production [17]. - As of the end of June, the sugar - equivalent price of hydrous ethanol in Brazil was around 14.8 cents. With the recent decline of raw sugar, the sugar - ethanol price difference has rapidly narrowed to around 1 cent, providing limited support for the sugar - making ratio. Some sugar mills with preferential ethanol tax policies in the central - southern region have started to shift production focus to ethanol, and the high sugar - making ratio may decline later. In addition, Brazil's National Petroleum Policy Council approved an increase in the mandatory mixing ratio of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the mixing ratio of biodiesel in ordinary diesel from 14% to 15% on June 25, which will take effect on August 1. This policy change will increase Brazil's annual ethanol demand, boost the ethanol price, and raise the bottom support for the raw sugar futures price [22]. - Brazil exported 2.2566 million tons of sugar in May, a year - on - year decrease of 554,500 tons or 19.72%. As of May in the 2025/26 season (from April to March of the next year), the cumulative sugar export was 3.8092 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.84%. Due to a large amount of exports in the early stage, Brazil's sugar inventory has dropped to a historical low, resulting in a significant decline in exports since April. However, as Brazil's production progresses, exports are expected to gradually recover after June. If Brazil's exports accelerate later, the low - inventory situation may become normal [26]. 3.2.2 India: Exceeding - Expected Production Reduction in the 24/25 Season, Significant Production Rebound Expected in the New Season - In the 24/25 season, India's sugar production reduction exceeded expectations. As of May 15, 2024/25, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons or 18.39%. The NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 2024/25 season would be around 26.11 million tons [28]. - In terms of exports, due to the decline in India's production and the firm domestic sugar price, the export parity of raw sugar remained around 20 cents, making exports unattractive. Although the Indian government allowed 1 million tons of sugar exports in the 24/25 season, the final export volume is expected to be less than the quota. Currently, there are expectations of expanded planting in Maharashtra and Karnataka in India, and this year's monsoon rainfall is higher than the annual average. The market generally expects a significant increase in India's sugar production in the 25/26 season. The chairman of the NFCSF recently estimated that India would witness a strong production recovery in the 25/26 season, giving an estimate of 35 million tons. However, there is still uncertainty about whether significant production increase can be achieved based on previous production situations. Moreover, currently, there is no export profit in India. If the increased production cannot be converted into exports, the impact on the global sugar trade flow may be limited [29]. 3.2.3 Thailand: Slight Increase in Sugarcane Area and Sugar Production Expected in the New Season - Thailand's 24/25 season sugarcane crushing ended on April 8. In this season, a total of 92 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year increase of 12%, and the cumulative sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%. The sugar production rate also increased to 10.92%, higher than 10.68% in the same period last year [32]. - Although the Thai government has taken measures to boost the cassava price, the profit from growing sugarcane is still higher than that of cassava. Most institutions expect a slight increase in Thailand's sugarcane area and sugar production in the 25/26 season. Datagro's latest estimate is that Thailand's production will increase from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons. Alvean expects Thailand's sugar production to increase to 11.1 million tons, while OSCB expects Thailand's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 10.05 million tons [35]. 3.2.4 Global: The Global Sugar Market is Expected to Shift from Shortage to Slight Surplus in the 25/26 Season - In the 24/25 season, the production in the Northern Hemisphere was lower than expected, and institutions increased their estimates of the global sugar market supply - demand gap in the 24/25 season. Since most institutions are optimistic about Brazil's sugar supply in the 25/26 season, the global sugar market supply - demand pattern is expected to shift from shortage to surplus in the 25/26 season, but there are still differences in the scale of the surplus and the extent of Brazil's production increase [37]. 3.3 Domestic Sugar Market Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Production and Sales: Faster Inventory Reduction of Domestic Sugar Year - on - Year, New - Season Production May Change Little - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. In this season, China produced a total of 11.1621 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year [39]. - The production and sales data of domestic sugar have been continuously improving. Although the final sugar production in the 24/25 season returned to over 11 million tons, the sales rate has remained high, and the inventory reduction speed has been faster year - on - year. As of the end of May, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons, at a low level in the same period. Regarding the growth of sugarcane in the new season, after a survey in the Guangxi main - producing area in late June, the overall seedling situation in Liuzhou is better than that in Laibin, and Chongzuo is similar to Laibin. The overall plant height is about 10 - 15 cm shorter due to the previous drought, but it may catch up if the weather is normal later. The sugar content is expected to be lower than last year, but the expected slight increase in the planting area offsets the decrease in sugar content. Therefore, the overall sugar production in the new season is expected to change little compared with the previous season, and whether it will increase or decrease slightly depends on the later weather and growth [40]. 3.3.2 Imports: Out - of - Quota Import Window Opened, Incoming Quantity of Raw Sugar will Increase - According to customs data, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May 2025, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar import was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 640,000 tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar import was 2.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04 million tons. From January to April, the quantity of imported sugar sources in China was limited, mainly quota - based imports, which supported the market to maintain a high - level shock. In May, out - of - quota licenses were gradually issued, and out - of - quota raw sugar gradually arrived at ports. The sugar import volume in May increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. Due to China's tightening of the import of syrup and premixed powder, the supply - demand gap needs to be filled by out - of - quota imports, and the market pricing is re - anchored to the out - of - quota import cost. As the raw sugar futures price continues to weaken, the import profit of out - of - quota Brazilian sugar has rebounded to a high level in recent years. It is expected that the incoming quantity of raw sugar will increase from July to August, and attention should be paid to the later import rhythm [43]. 3.3.3 Substitutes: Tighter Policy Control, Significant Decline in Import Volume of Syrup and Premixed Powder - China has successively suspended the import of syrup and premixed powder from Thailand and Vietnam. In May, there was basically no new import from these two countries under the 1702 tariff item. According to customs data, China imported a total of 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder in May, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The import quantity of syrup and white sugar premixed powder under the 1702 tariff item was 16,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 197,000 tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 190,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.94%. As of May in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative import of three types of commodities under the 1702 tariff item in the country was 823,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.13% [47]. 3.4 2025 Second - Half White Sugar Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the global sugar market's increasing production cycle will suppress the ICE raw sugar price in the long - term. In the short - term, there is a possibility of an oversold rebound, and attention should be paid to India's policies. After the fourth quarter, the outer market may have a phased rebound opportunity [53]. - For Zhengzhou sugar, the short - term support from fast production and sales progress may be limited by the expected increase in imports in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, there may be a local inventory shortage, which may boost prices, but the long - term trend is still bearish [54].

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report - External Disturbances, Short - term Volatility Intensifies [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Internationally, the approaching monsoon season improved the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, the opening of the import window increased import pressure, while the summer consumption peak provided some support. Overall, the domestic sugar price was stronger than the external market due to rising demand. In the later period, both supply and demand will be strong, and price volatility will intensify. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the export of Brazilian and Indian sugar [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the monsoon season improved the supply outlook in Asia, and Brazilian shipping data showed an increase in waiting ships and sugar quantity. Domestically, import pressure increased, but summer consumption provided support. The domestic market was stronger than the external market, and later, price volatility will intensify [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract [5] - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, Brazilian and Indian sugar exports [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.92% this week. As of July 2, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar was unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.76%. The international raw sugar spot price decreased by 1.38% as of June 27, 2025. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 29,497 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 23,424 [12][15][21] - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,150 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,880 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,318 yuan/ton (down 0.55% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota was 5,480 yuan/ton (down 0.56% week - on - week). The in - quota profit of importing Brazilian sugar was 1,617 yuan/ton (up 0.87% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota profit was 455 yuan/ton (up 4.84% week - on - week). Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [25][28][34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, with a national sugar production of 1.11621 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons (12.03% increase). As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% surge year - on - year, but the cumulative import from January to May was 630,000 tons, a 50.1% decrease year - on - year [38][42][46] - **Demand Side**: The cumulative national sugar sales were 811,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons (23.07% increase), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 906,600 tons (a 4.9% year - on - year increase), and the cumulative output of soft drinks was 7.46 billion tons (a 25.19% year - on - year increase) [50][55] 3.4 Option and Stock - related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of sugar this week was presented, but specific data was not fully described [56] - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but specific data was not fully described [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-ethanol ratio is high, leading to strong expectations of decreased production for the new season in the overseas market [1] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - As of the end of May, Brazil's Central-South region has processed 76.71 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 20.24% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 3.989 million tons, down 22.68% year-on-year [1] - The sugar-ethanol ratio in Brazil is high, with the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% [1] - For the 2024/25 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Dynamics - The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation predicts that India's sugar ending stock for the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in October-November 2025, despite a decline in current production [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - The early arrival of monsoon rains in India is anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching around 35 million tons [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - As of the end of May, Guangxi has sold 4.6453 million tons of sugar, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The domestic market has opened a profit window for sugar imports outside of quotas, although the rebound in prices is limited [1] - In May, sugar imports totaled 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.31% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi aims to promote high-quality development in the sugar industry by focusing on good varieties, good practices, and good fields, with a total funding of over 2.6 billion RMB planned for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Funding and Investment - Guangxi's financial department has allocated approximately 2 billion RMB to support the revitalization of sugarcane seed varieties, emphasizing the integration of good varieties and good practices [1]. - Over 400 million RMB will be used to support the construction of high-standard farmland in sugarcane production protection areas, improving the production conditions for sugarcane [1]. - More than 200 million RMB is designated for subsidies to support the establishment of mechanized demonstration bases for sugarcane production, promoting full mechanization [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancement - Guangxi is promoting the integration of agricultural machinery and practices, with over 200 million RMB allocated for projects including the purchase of sugarcane harvesters and water-fertilizer integration [1]. - Nearly 80 million RMB is set aside for key areas such as the breeding system for sugarcane varieties and foundational research in sugarcane [1]. Group 3: Financial Mechanisms - Guangxi has established a dual guarantee mechanism of "insurance + guarantee" to alleviate financing difficulties for growers, with a cumulative guarantee amount exceeding 9.3 billion RMB by May 2025 [2]. - The revised management measures for special funds for sugar industry development will create a closed-loop management system for fund usage, supervision, and performance [2]. - Continuous tracking of fund usage related to sugar industry development will be maintained to ensure effective financial support and management [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangxi has achieved significant progress in high-quality sugar industry development through measures such as improving sugarcane production efficiency, technological innovation, and upgrading sugar enterprises [1] - In the 2024/25 sugar season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area is expected to reach 11.35 million acres, an increase of 110,000 acres year-on-year, with sugar production exceeding 6.4 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons year-on-year [1] - The coverage rate of quality sugarcane varieties in Guangxi is close to 99%, with self-bred varieties accounting for over 92% [1] Group 2 - The sugar industry chain is extending rapidly, with the establishment of the largest bagasse-based eco-friendly tableware production and export base in Laibin City, and the development of new products such as sugarcane vinegar and sugarcane beer in Chongzuo City [2] - Guangxi is exploring international cooperation in the sugar industry, signing framework agreements for sugarcane planting with regions in Vietnam, and developing raw material bases of approximately 36,000 acres in Vietnam [2] - The utilization rates of bagasse, molasses, and filter mud have reached 100%, while the comprehensive utilization rate of sugarcane leaves has exceeded 40% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the raw sugar price has dragged down the domestic white sugar price, causing it to open lower and decline. However, the expected increase in demand limits the decline. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to more volatile prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 302,138 lots, a decrease of 7,673 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 23,575, a decrease of 174. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -21,701 lots, an increase of 9,455 lots. The estimated effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,342 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,511 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,392 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan. The estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,576 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Nanning is 6,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national sugar production cumulative value is 304.83 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 111.621 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales volume is 81.138 million tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 434 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.41%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 6.42%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.44%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.71%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 30, a sugar factory in Tiandong has cleared its inventory of "Dongxing" brand sugar, becoming the 6th sugar factory in South China, Guangxi to clear its inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 4 compared to the same period last year. Currently, only 3 sugar factories have not cleared their inventory. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, and the expectation of loose supply has suppressed the decline of raw sugar prices [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Guangxi is actively exploring a new model of sugar industry cooperation with Vietnam, focusing on sugarcane cultivation and processing, with significant increases in sugarcane imports expected for the 2024/2025 season [1] - Guangxi has implemented measures to enhance sugarcane production quality and efficiency, including a three-year action plan for the transformation and upgrading of sugar enterprises, leading to notable achievements in high-quality sugar industry development [1][2] - Guangxi is a major player in China's sugar industry, accounting for approximately 60% of the country's sugarcane planting area and sugar production, with ongoing efforts to restore sugarcane cultivation areas and increase planting [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi government has allocated nearly 2 billion yuan to support the revitalization of sugarcane seed industry and promote the adoption of advanced cultivation techniques [2] - A new mechanized harvesting model for sugarcane has been introduced, along with the establishment of 235 mechanized harvesting service points, aimed at modernizing sugarcane production [2] - Guangxi is extending its sugar industry value chain by developing new products such as sugarcane vinegar and sugarcane beer, and has established the largest environmentally friendly sugarcane residue production base in the country [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Guangxi's sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to exceed 6.465 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 283,600 tons [1] - The area planted with sugarcane in Guangxi is projected to be 11.35 million acres, which represents an increase of 110,000 acres compared to the previous year [1]