1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 89.43%, a 0.40% decrease from the previous period, with the trend shifting from rising to falling. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a decline in production is high. Recently, local agricultural demand continues to progress, while domestic industrial demand weakens. As high - nitrogen fertilizer production nears completion, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate drops. Due to some urea enterprises receiving export orders and being in the legal inspection period, urea supplies are temporarily locked. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to increase slightly. Although there is an expectation of downstream goods being shipped to ports in the short term, the enterprise inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800 in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 3,536, a decrease of 5,639. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,357, a decrease of 52 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1860 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Anhui is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is 128 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic is 355 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port is 360 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 20.5 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the enterprise inventory is 103.54 million tons, an increase of 5.48 million tons, a 5.59% increase. The urea enterprise operating rate is 89.83%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points; the daily output is 206,600 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 5,845,080 tons, a decrease of 242,000 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.8507 million tons, a decrease of 0.9876 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,280 tons, a decrease of 1,740 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 103.54 million tons, a 5.59% increase from the previous week. As of June 5, the port sample inventory is 20.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of June 5, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4394 billion tons, a 0.45% decrease from the previous period. There are newly - added coal - based production enterprise device shutdowns, and the daily output of domestic urea has decreased slightly. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down, and 2 - 4 shut - down enterprises will resume production [2]

尿素日报 | 2025-06-05 下游跟进减弱，库存延续增加 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-04，尿素主力收盘1774元/吨（+13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1870元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：96 元/吨（-13）；河南基差：76元/吨（-13）；江苏基差：126元/吨（-13）；尿素生产利润403元/吨（+0），出口利润492 元/吨（+5）。 供应端：截至2025-06-04，企业产能利用率89.83%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-06-04，复合肥产能利用率40.09%（+2.52%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.98%（-3.51%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 企业库存持续累积，上游出货压力逐渐增大，下游跟进积极性明显下降。当前正处麦收农忙高峰期，农业备肥需 求阶段性放缓，整体农需弱于预期。下游工业需求复合肥与三聚氰胺等工业开工率有所下滑， ...

Group 1: Industry Chain Layout and Core Advantages - The company focuses on compound fertilizer business, with an integrated industry chain that includes upstream nitrogen and phosphorus resources, enhancing cost control and resource ownership [1] - Nitrogen fertilizer chain includes a "salt-alkali-fertilizer" integration, with projects in Hubei and Guangxi totaling 2.7 million tons of synthetic ammonia, aiming for self-sufficiency in nitrogen raw materials [1][2] - Phosphorus fertilizer chain utilizes graded phosphorus acid technology, with a future mining project in Leibo expected to produce 6.9 million tons/year, ensuring stable supply of phosphate rock [2] Group 2: Future Development Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future of compound fertilizers, supported by national food security strategies and a projected grain output of 1.4 trillion jin in 2024 [3] - Agricultural modernization and scientific fertilization techniques are expected to drive demand for compound fertilizers, enhancing market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - The company currently has an annual production capacity of 350,000 tons for industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, fully sold externally [3] - The demand for industrial phosphates is anticipated to grow due to the booming new energy sector and increasing penetration of water-soluble fertilizers [3] Group 4: Project Developments in Synthetic Ammonia - The Hubei base is constructing a capacity of 700,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, with additional production lines for various fertilizers and refined salt [4][5] - The Guangxi base plans to build a capacity of 2 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 3 million tons of urea, filling production gaps in southern China and enhancing market responsiveness [5] Group 5: Phosphate Mining Resources - The company owns three phosphate mines in Leibo, with a total resource reserve of approximately 549 million tons [5] - The mining projects are progressing, with the Aju Luo Xia mine starting construction for a capacity of 2.9 million tons/year, while optimization designs are underway for the Niu Niu Zhai East mine [5]

Group 1 - The price for India's potash fertilizer import contract has been set at $349 per ton, marking a $70 increase from the previous year, which is a 25% rise [1] - The contract was signed between Russian potash company BPC and Indian fertilizer importer IPL, with a total volume of 650,000 tons to be delivered by December 2025 [1] - The price aligns with market expectations, as industry insiders had anticipated a price around $350 per ton [1] Group 2 - India is the world's fourth-largest importer of potash fertilizer, with imports of 3.25 million tons in 2021 and an estimated 3 million tons in 2023 [2] - The domestic price of potash in China has seen significant increases, with local 60% potash prices ranging from 3,200 to 3,250 yuan per ton [2] - Recent production cuts from Belarus and Russia, which account for 39% of global potash exports, have intensified supply-demand tensions in the market [2]

Core Points - The company has announced a profit distribution and capital increase plan, which includes a cash dividend of 0.15 RMB per share and a capital increase of 0.30 shares for each share held [1][2][6] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to 30 million RMB, while the capital increase will result in an additional 60 million shares being issued, bringing the total share capital to 260 million shares [2][6] - The plan was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting held on May 20, 2025 [2] Distribution and Capital Increase Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to shareholders registered by the close of trading on June 11, 2025, with the ex-dividend date set for June 12, 2025 [2][3] - The cash dividend will be distributed through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch [3][4] - Shareholders holding shares for more than one year will not be subject to personal income tax on the cash dividend, while those holding for less than one month will face a 20% tax [4][5] Share Capital Structure Changes - Prior to the capital increase, the total share capital was 200 million shares, which will increase to 260 million shares post-distribution [6] - The diluted earnings per share for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to be 0.46 RMB after the capital increase [6]

尿素日报 | 2025-06-04 市场情绪偏弱，农需陆续开展 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-03，尿素主力收盘1761元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1870元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1900元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：109 元/吨（+12）；河南基差：89元/吨（+12）；江苏基差：139元/吨（+12）；尿素生产利润403元/吨（+0），出口利润 487元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-06-03，企业产能利用率89.83%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为98.06 万吨（+6.32），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-06-03，复合肥产能利用率40.09%（+2.52%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.98%（-3.51%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.88日（-0.06）。 市场情绪偏弱，尿素出口厂检陆续开展，国内尿素有序出口。下游工业需求复合肥与三聚氰胺开工减弱，局部地 区麦收从南到北开始进行，农业需求开始呈现启动迹象，农需陆续开展，整体农需弱于预期。 ...

【冠通研究】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，震荡收跌。6 月 1 日氮肥协会对 6 月的各区 域的尿素出厂指导价建议为 5 月底各区域的加权平均值，最高价为指导价基础 上浮 100 元。受消息影响，今日盘面高开。端午节假期内上游工厂降价吸单， 收单相对顺畅，今日期货盘面影响市场情绪，下游根据转为谨慎。基本面来 看，供应端端午节假期小幅波动，龙华出现临时检修情况，今日华锦复产，总 体供应表现充足。需求端，农业经销商备肥逐渐开启，对尿素行情提供支撑， 复合肥端走货预计持续至本月中旬，但开工率将转弱。上游工厂继续累库，主 要系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，今日受氮 肥协会指导价的影响，盘面高开，但目前需求处于空档期，盘面转为下跌，但 是目前仍有农业需求的预期，以及后续出口的影响，盘面预计不会深跌，但供 需相对宽松，农需时期带来的行情反弹上方空间或为不足。 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1800 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1761 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.96%，持仓量 231078 手（+5951 手）。前二十 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1761 | -12 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 65 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 231078 | 5951 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | 12090 | 371 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6619 | -235 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1900 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1870 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1890 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 109 | 12 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 355 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 360 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 20.5 | 0.2 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

尿素2025年6月报： 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响，5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡，下旬回归实际供需矛盾，尿素产销转弱，价格高位回落，接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨，较上月底下调84元/吨，尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨，较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格（元/吨） 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差：5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，5月30日9-1价差70元/吨， ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 18 元至 1773 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 10 元至 1850 元/吨，多头持仓增加 10651 手至 18.36 万手，空头持仓增加 7278 手至 17.18 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.46 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.02 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | 期增加 3.12 万吨；开工 88.96%，较去年同期 80.07%提升 8.89%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 98.06 万吨，较上周增加 6.32 万吨，环比增 | | | | 加 | 6.89%。尿素港口库存 ...