1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With more refineries in China reducing their operating rates, more petrochemical companies declaring force majeure, and more Middle - East refineries shutting down due to drone attacks, the supply reduction of the chemical industry is a fact. Even if the geopolitical situation eases, damaged refineries won't start immediately, and shut - down facilities need time to restart. The chemical industry may outperform crude oil futures prices later [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: The release of strategic petroleum reserves cannot change the tight supply expectation, and oil prices will remain strong. - **Main Logic**: The IEA's release of strategic petroleum reserves may not change the tight supply pattern caused by the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz. If the situation eases, oil prices may fall but won't return to pre - conflict levels in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish before the situation becomes clearer [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price spread will widen. - **Main Logic**: The high - level shock of crude oil, the expected decline in asphalt refinery operating rates due to the deterioration of refining profits, the high - growth in Hainan's asphalt production, the accumulation of asphalt inventory, and the relatively undervalued asphalt futures compared to fuel oil all contribute to the expected widening of the spread. - **Outlook**: Volatile, with the absolute price of asphalt overvalued and the medium - to - long - term valuation expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from its high level. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Iran affects fuel oil exports and natural gas supply. In the long term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics is a negative factor [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its export tax - rebate advantage and the transfer of the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" pressure may support it [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost increase has escalated into a real - supply shock, and many refineries in the Asia - Pacific region are under force majeure. - **Main Logic**: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, raw - material costs remain high. PX supply is expected to shrink significantly in the second - quarter maintenance period, and the unplanned losses exacerbate the supply tightness [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will be volatile and bullish under cost support and real - supply shock. In the medium term, the logic of buying on dips remains. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The volatility of upstream costs has increased, and the PTA basis has remained relatively stable. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in upstream raw materials has pushed up the cost of PTA, and the spot price has risen significantly due to the supply - cut sentiment. In the short term, PTA is expected to be bullish driven by cost and market sentiment [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Driven by crude oil and commodity sentiment, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. On the fundamental side, some supply enterprises may reduce production, while the downstream industry's profits have improved, and the operating rate has increased [14][16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by device maintenance and crude - oil fluctuations, styrene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. Supply may be reduced due to device maintenance and production cuts, while exports have increased. The market is supported by replenishment after the price decline [17]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.9 MEG - **View**: The reduction in oil - based device operating rates is gradually emerging, and supply is expected to shrink significantly. - **Main Logic**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the supply of raw materials, leading to a decline in the operating rate of domestic ethylene - cracking MEG enterprises. The reduction in overseas imports and domestic oil - based device production cannot be fully compensated by the delay in coal - chemical device maintenance [19]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Upstream raw materials are facing a real - supply shock. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has increased significantly. Downstream customers have stocked up during the previous price increase and are now waiting for the industrial chain to recover [20]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the upstream trend and remain volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - **View**: The supply contraction of upstream raw materials has triggered market enthusiasm. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in upstream futures has strongly driven up the price of polyester bottle chips, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The current supply - demand situation is tight, and the overall fundamentals are good [22]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will follow the raw - material trend, and the support for processing fees will increase. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict, methanol fluctuates within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price is volatile and bullish. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The geopolitical situation still affects the import side [25][26]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of the urea industry is stable at a high level. Agricultural demand still exists in some regions, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure of enterprises has weakened, which provides support for the market [27]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. 3.1.14 PE - **View**: There is an expectation of a decline in refinery operating rates, and PE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is volatile. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market is still volatile, and the expected decline in refinery operating rates supports the near - term contracts [30]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The number of maintenance operations has increased, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is volatile. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are under pressure, and the overall operating rate is low [31]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: There is an expectation of a decline in oil - based refinery operating rates, and PL fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates widely. The spot market has become more rational, and the downstream is waiting and observing [32]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and PVC is cautiously bullish. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - disruption expectations in the energy - chemical industry. Upstream production cuts have expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply continues to decrease, and caustic soda is cautiously bullish. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - reduction expectations. The production - cut scale at home and abroad has expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis, changes in the basis, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided [38]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are provided [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index show different degrees of decline [276]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index shows a decline of 8.58% on March 11, 2026, an increase of 1.11% in the past 5 days, an increase of 41.21% in the past month, and an increase of 45.03% since the beginning of the year [278].

Group 1 - International oil prices surged, with both WTI and Brent crude oil rising over 8%, Brent crude reaching $99 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Department announced the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address rising oil prices due to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran [3] - U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. is in a favorable position regarding the conflict with Iran and is closely monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [3] Group 2 - Two foreign oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi territorial waters, resulting in one death and 38 crew members rescued [4] - The Iraqi government has deployed six vessels to assist in the rescue operations for the missing crew members [5] - The attack on the oil tankers is viewed as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty [5]

消息称，美军花费规模和弹药消耗速度远高于此前对外披露的水平。美国智库战略与国际问题 研究中心5日发布报告估算，美军在行动的头100小时成本支出为37亿美元，约合每日8.9亿美 元。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨金珊 美股能源股集体上涨，西方石油涨超4%，原油开盘飙涨6%，伊朗总统提结束战争三大条 件 史上最大规模，最高4亿桶石油储备释放计划来了 伊朗称完全有能力封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将实施"连环打击" SFC 21君荐读 据央视新闻报道，当地时间11日，美国防部官员当天在国会闭门简报会上告诉国会议员， 在 美国对伊朗大规模军事行动的头6天，美军花费就已超过113亿美元 。 消息称，这一估算并未包括许多与行动相关的成本，如在首次空袭前的军事装备和人员集结。 因此，随着五角大楼继续核算， 国会议员预计这一数字将大幅上升 。 美国方面另一消息称，国防官员在最近的国会简报中表示，美军在战事头两天消耗价值56亿美 元的弹药。 ...

Group 1 - The UN Security Council failed to pass a resolution proposed by Russia aimed at urging an end to the conflict in the Middle East, with 4 votes in favor, 2 against, and 9 abstentions [1] - The resolution expressed condolences for the "tragic loss of life" caused by ongoing hostilities in the region and called for an immediate cessation of military actions by all parties involved [1] - It condemned all attacks against civilians and civilian targets, urging adherence to international humanitarian law and emphasizing the importance of ensuring security for all countries in the region [1] Group 2 - U.S. energy stocks saw a collective rise, with Occidental Petroleum increasing by over 4%, and crude oil prices spiking by 6% at the opening [2] - Iran's president stated that the country is fully capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and will implement a "chain strike" strategy [2] - A significant oil reserve release plan, the largest in history, was announced, with a maximum of 400 million barrels to be released [2]

受到中东紧张局势影响，主要产油国被迫削减产量。国际油价 3月11日显著上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所4月交货的轻质原油期货 价格上涨3.80美元，收于每桶87.25美元，涨幅为4.55%；5月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨4.18美元，收于每桶91.98美元，涨幅 为4.76%。 国际能源署成员国同意释放4亿桶战略石油储备 国际能源署11日发表声明说， 32个成员国一致同意释放4亿桶战略石油储备 ，以应对因美国和以色列军事打击伊朗导致全球石油供应紧张 的局面。 国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示， 战略石油储备的释放将根据各成员国的具体情况，在适当的时间框架内分步实施。 国际能源署将在 晚些时候公布释放4亿桶石油储备的具体方案，并将继续密切关注全球石油和天然气市场的变化。 ■ 美 国 当地时间3月11日，美国能源部表示， 美总统特朗普已授权该部门从下周开始从战略石油储备中释放1.72亿桶原油。 根据计划的释放速 度，这批原油的交付大约需要120天。 ■ 德国 △国际能源署总部（资料图） 往期推荐 德国联邦经济和能源部长赖歇11日表示， 德国将释放1951万桶战略石油储备， 以缓解油价上涨压力。 ■ 日本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, marking the largest coordinated release in history, yet oil prices have increased by nearly 5% following the announcement, indicating market skepticism about the effectiveness of this measure in addressing supply disruptions caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East [1][3]. Group 1: IEA's Strategic Oil Reserve Release - The IEA's 32 member countries have consented to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to mitigate global energy supply risks due to conflicts in the Middle East [1]. - The release will be implemented in phases based on the specific circumstances of each member country, with further details to be announced later [1]. - Following the announcement, Brent crude futures rose by 4.8% to $91.98 per barrel, while WTI crude futures increased by 4.6% to $87.25 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Opinions - Analysts and traders express skepticism regarding the adequacy of the released reserves, suggesting that the release may not sufficiently address the supply gap created by ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - Josh Young from Bison Interests noted that the decision could actually be "extremely bullish" for oil prices, as it diminishes the market's ability to compensate for supply shortages [3]. - Fawad Razaqzada from StoneX indicated that the market seems to have already priced in the expectation of the 400 million barrels release, leading to minimal price fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Impact of Middle East Conflicts - Since the onset of the conflict on February 28, it is estimated that approximately 175 million barrels of oil supply have been lost due to disruptions [4]. - The daily oil supply loss is around 15 million barrels, highlighting the severity of the situation [3]. - Michael Lynch from Strategic Energy & Economic Research emphasized that the released reserves would only support slightly over three weeks of conflict, suggesting that further releases may be necessary if the situation persists [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a sudden policy shift by the Trump administration, moving from opposing to promoting a historic release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which is more than double the previous largest release [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Shift - The U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright initially stated at the G7 meeting that large-scale market intervention was "premature" as oil prices had recently dropped below $90 per barrel [4]. - Within two hours, the U.S. reversed its stance, pressuring allies to support the unprecedented oil release, shocking European officials who ultimately complied [5]. - The decision was driven by concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil supply, which could severely impact the energy market if blocked [6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the historic scale of the intervention, market skepticism remains regarding its effectiveness, as oil prices rose over 5% on the day of the announcement [3][9]. - The 400 million barrels released is equivalent to only about 20 days of transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about its ability to stabilize prices below $100 per barrel [9]. - Analysts noted that the speed of the release from IEA member countries would not sufficiently compensate for potential supply losses from the Middle East, even if hostilities were to cease quickly [9]. Group 3: International Contributions - The U.S. is set to contribute over 100 million barrels, with other countries like Japan, Canada, and Germany also participating, albeit with varying levels of enthusiasm [7]. - Germany's energy minister expressed skepticism about the intervention's effectiveness, highlighting that the market was still reacting actively to price changes [8]. - Some European nations initially hesitated to support the intervention, fearing limited impact on price reduction while the Strait remained potentially blocked [8].

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 12 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has approved the largest emergency oil reserve release plan in history, responding to soaring oil prices due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with a total of 400 million barrels to be released by member countries [4]. Group 1: Contributions from Member Countries - Germany will release nearly 20 million barrels of oil reserves [4][7] - The UK will contribute 13.5 million barrels of crude oil [4][7] - France plans to release up to 14.5 million barrels, with President Macron stating that the release will be arranged in the coming days [4][7] - The U.S. is set to release 172 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves, starting next week, with the process expected to last about 120 days [4][10] Group 2: Market Impact and Oil Prices - IEA's release of strategic oil reserves is expected to significantly lower oil prices, with President Trump stating that prices are already declining and will continue to do so [4][10] - Following the announcement of the record oil reserve release, oil prices briefly fell but then rose slightly, with WTI crude returning to the $90 per barrel mark [4] Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Concerns - The IEA's 32 member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency reserves, with an additional 600 million barrels in government-controlled corporate inventories [6] - The release details, including the speed and duration, remain uncertain, which is critical for the energy market [9] - There are concerns that the release may not fully cover the supply gap, with estimates of daily supply losses in the Persian Gulf ranging from 11 million to 16 million barrels [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant policy shift by the Trump administration regarding oil price management, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the need to stabilize oil prices amid rising tensions [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Shift - The Trump administration made a rapid policy reversal from opposing to promoting a historic release of strategic oil reserves, amounting to 400 million barrels, which is more than double the previous largest release [3][5]. - Initially, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that large-scale market intervention was premature due to oil prices dropping below $90 per barrel, reflecting Trump's earlier stance [4]. - Within two hours, the U.S. shifted its position, urging allies to support the unprecedented oil release, surprising European officials who ultimately complied [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Concerns - The primary motivation for this release was the Trump administration's deep concern over the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage that supplies about one-fifth of the world's oil [5][6]. - Iran had previously threatened to close the Strait if attacked by the U.S., which heightened the urgency for the U.S. response [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the historic scale of the intervention, market skepticism remains regarding its effectiveness, as the released amount is only equivalent to approximately 20 days of transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices still rose over 5% following the announcement [3][8]. - Analysts express doubts about whether the release can stabilize oil prices below $100 per barrel, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [8].