【 摘要 】国信证券荀玉根称，经济逐渐走出通缩，基本面改善，行情向纵深发展，基本面由点 到面扩散中。中金公司陈健恒认为，在融资需求不足而资产荒延续背景下，债券配置力量或持续 有利于利率下行。 一、焦点锐评 1．央行将加量续做6个月期买断式逆回购 11月14日，中国央行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，11月17 日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 6个月（182天）。由于本月有3000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，因此在开展上述操作后，6个 月期买断式逆回购将实现净投放5000亿元。这也是央行连续第6个月加量续做买断式逆回购。 【解读】目前，央行基本形成每月5号前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15号前后开展6个月期买 断式逆回购、25号开展MLF操作的中长期资金投放模式。民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，在年 内稳增长诉求加大、财政加力的背景下，货币政策的协同性将进一步加强，资金面有望保持宽松 状态。 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：角逐定价权，迈入低波市 中信证券裘翔指出，中国资本市场正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场，上市公司全球业务敞口持 ...

□本报记者 张韵 截至11月14日，数据显示，今年以来，全市场已有19只公募基金实现业绩翻倍。值得注意的是，在近年 来的主被动产品博弈中，虽然被动产品一度占上风，但此番业绩翻倍的基金却全部是主动产品。这在一 定程度上反映出主动投资型基金依然有其独特的捕捉超额收益的优势。 从这19只基金的业绩表现来看，多数净值曲线都是从二季度开始陡然拉升。亮眼业绩背后，或离不开基 金经理们对光模块、PCB、创新药、存储等强势板块的重仓。同时，许多基金的持仓集中度较一季度末 有明显提升，在二、三季度末，均有半数以上基金前十大重仓股市值占基金资产净值比重超过60%。 不过在11月14日，光模块、PCB、存储板块出现较大幅度回调，多只前期人气股单日跌超4%，部分存 储板块标的更是单日跌超9%。这也使得10余只原本已在今年翻倍的公募基金，回报率降至100%以下。 冠军基重仓光通信板块 2025年半年报披露的数据显示，该基金二季度末仅持有20只个股，前十大重仓股几乎全是市场热门股， 集中于光通信、PCB、云计算三大领域。其中，含"光"量尤高。光模块三巨头（新易盛、中际旭创、天 孚通信）为前三大重仓股，合计占基金资产净值的比重接近30%。 ...

Core Insights - As of November 14, 2023, 19 public funds have doubled their performance this year, all of which are actively managed funds, indicating the unique advantages of active investment strategies in capturing excess returns [1][2] Fund Performance and Strategy - The majority of these funds saw a significant increase in net asset value starting from the second quarter, largely due to heavy investments in strong sectors such as optical modules, PCB, innovative pharmaceuticals, and storage [1][4] - Many funds exhibited a notable increase in concentration, with over 60% of their net asset value held in the top ten stocks by the end of the second and third quarters [1][2] Notable Fund Examples - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart Selection, achieved a return rate exceeding 180% this year, with its manager, Ren Jie, having a background as a TMT researcher [1][2] - This fund underwent significant portfolio adjustments, completely changing its top ten holdings multiple times within the year, reflecting Ren Jie's preference for concentrated holdings [2][3] Sector Focus - The top holdings of the funds are heavily concentrated in the optical communication, PCB, and cloud computing sectors, with the top three stocks in the optical module sector accounting for nearly 30% of the fund's net asset value [3][4] - The performance of these top holdings has been impressive, with seven stocks doubling in value during the third quarter, including Industrial Fulian, which saw a rise of over 200% [3][4] Common Trends Among High-Performing Funds - A significant trend among the 19 funds is the heavy investment in optical module stocks, with nearly 70% of the funds having optical module stocks as their top holdings by the end of the second quarter [4] - Other sectors contributing to the strong performance include PCB and innovative pharmaceuticals, with specific funds like Yongying Technology Smart Selection and Hengyue Advantage Select showing substantial gains from these sectors [4][5]

我们认为，这种交易的可持续性将影响本轮创新药产业周期的时间长度及股价表现。对于未来趋势如 何，可从买方购买意愿和能力及卖方产品力进行分析。 我们认为，得益于研发技术进步、中国药企效率提升及跨国药企购买意愿较大，创新药交易具备较长时 间的可持续性，这是中国医药产业的机遇。与此同时，创新药专利权交易的巨大风险不容忽视，而在早 期研发阶段，市场就给予相关企业非常高的估值，这或许对创新药管线的专利权交易时间与金额都过于 乐观，导致在短时间内形成巨大的预期差，造成股价波动。 要理解中国创新药面临的成长机遇，首先要回到本轮创新药板块上涨的核心逻辑——年初以来中国创新 药的加速出海，是这轮创新药板块上涨的力量。 中国创新药对外授权交易数量占比显著提升，在首付款超0.5亿美元的跨国药企创新药交易中，从中国 企业引入的数量占比在2024年达到27%，2025年前三季度已升至38%。这推动了中国创新药企业估值持 续攀升。 从作为买方角色的跨国药企角度看：首先，"专利悬崖"迫使跨国药企补充管线，未来5年头部跨国药企 将有超1000亿美元规模的药物陆续失去专利保护，面对仿制药的冲击，需通过授权、并购或合作快速获 取新药资产以维持业绩 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **U.S. Stock Market**: Expected to experience volatility and differentiation, with a focus on technology stocks following Nvidia's earnings report, small-cap tech, healthcare, financial sectors, and low-end consumer staples [1][3] - **A-Share Market**: Currently in a phase of fluctuation, with attention on price increase diffusion, low-level rebounds, and sentiment-driven themes [1][5] Economic Indicators - **Domestic Macro Data**: Weak performance noted in October, with social financing and credit weakening, exports turning negative, and declines in fixed and real estate investments [1][5] - **Liquidity Trends**: Marginal contraction in macro liquidity, with a projected decline in the growth rate of liabilities in the real sector [1][6][7] Investment Recommendations - **Fixed Income Strategy**: Maintain flexibility in asset allocation due to changing liquidity conditions, with a recommendation for a combination of long-term bonds and value equity assets [1][7] - **Healthcare Sector**: Recent rebound in the innovative drug sector, with increasing competitiveness in Chinese drug licensing and a rationalization of valuations [1][8] - **Agriculture Sector**: Opportunities identified in agricultural modernization, disease prevention in livestock, and environmental technology in aquaculture [1][11] Geopolitical Impact - **Military Sector**: Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Japan's statements on Taiwan, may boost sentiment in the military sector [1][9][10] Specific Company Insights - **Yuehai Feed**: Notable recovery in performance with a projected compound growth rate of 20% to 30% over the next three years, driven by internal adjustments and market expansion [1][16][18] Consumer Trends - **Pet Industry**: Strong performance of brands under Guobao and Zhongchong during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating robust market positioning [1][12][14] Conclusion - **Market Outlook**: Cautious approach recommended in light of weak domestic fundamentals, with a focus on sectors showing potential for price increases and low-level rebounds, alongside monitoring geopolitical developments [1][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of November 16, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing varied price cycles for raw materials, with certain products like Amoxicillin and 6-APA benefiting from stable supply and increased demand, leading to a prosperous period from 2023 to 2024. Vitamin E is also expected to see a high demand year in 2024 due to an incident at BASF [2]. - The high-value consumables market is showing growth in segments such as vascular intervention and neurosurgery, while orthopedic implants are facing a decline overall. However, specific areas like spinal and joint implants are growing, indicating a recovery in the industry post-tender clearing [3]. - The flu positivity rate has surged, leading to increased attention on flu medications and testing, with new flu drugs receiving approval from the National Medical Products Administration [4]. - The pace of innovation and overseas expansion in the pharmaceutical sector is recovering, with a significant increase in licensing deals and total transaction amounts in 2025 compared to previous years [5]. - The competitive landscape in the weight loss market is intensifying, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Pfizer engaging in acquisition battles, highlighting the market's attractiveness [6]. - The research services and Contract Research Organization (CRO) sectors are leading the recovery in the pharmaceutical industry, with significant profit growth reported in these areas [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index recently, with a weekly increase of 3.29% [22]. 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index has a current PE (TTM) of 39.36, above the five-year historical average of 31.22 [48]. 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various research achievements, including the growth of innovative drugs and the positive outlook for the blood products industry [50]. 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration focus on intelligent auditing and regulation of excessive prescriptions, aiming to safeguard fund security and patient rights [52].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the innovative drug market is expected to drive continuous valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical sector, supported by improving fundamentals and overseas expansion catalysts [2][7][10] - The pharmaceutical sector's overall performance shows a slight revenue growth of 0.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 12.87% [4][3] - The report highlights that the revenue of domestic biotech innovative drug companies reached 52.13 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14% year-on-year increase, indicating that commercialization is entering a rapid growth phase [21][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the total overseas licensing business development (BD) transaction amount in the innovative drug sector exceeded 100 billion USD in 2025, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [27][30][33] - The report emphasizes that the innovative drug sector's valuation remains at a historically low level, with the median PE ratio for the pharmaceutical sector at 34.21 times, suggesting potential for further recovery [10][57] - Institutional enthusiasm for the biotech innovative drug sector is reflected in the increasing proportion of holdings, with the weight of all funds in the biotech sector rising to 2.66% in Q3 2025 [11][35][38] Group 3 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Sanofi Biopharma, which has licensed a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody to Pfizer, indicating high certainty for future overseas sales growth [63] - The report also highlights the potential of Union Pharmaceuticals' UBT251, which has shown promising results in weight loss and is licensed to Novo Nordisk [63] - The report suggests that Kolon Biotech's TROP2 ADC, licensed to Merck, has demonstrated excellent data and is expected to have significant market potential [63]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 创新药行业复盘 ——创新出海2 . 0：B D之后，我们应该关注什么 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 医药生物 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：马千里 010-88005445 maqianli@guosen.com.cn S0980521070001 证券分析师：张超 0755-81982940 zhangchao4@guosen.com.cn S0980522080001 证券分析师：彭思宇 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 证券分析师：陈益凌 021-60933167 chenyiling@guosen.com.cn S0980519010002 证券分析师：凌珑 021-60375401 linglong@guosen.com.cn S0980525070003 证券分析师：肖婧舒 0755-81982826 xiaojingshu@guosen.com.c ...

- The report constructs an ETF hotspot trend strategy based on the highest and lowest price trends of ETFs, selecting those with both highest and lowest prices in an upward trend. Further, it constructs a support-resistance factor based on the relative steepness of the regression coefficients of the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days, and selects the top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rate in the past 5 days/20 days to construct a risk parity portfolio[27][30] - The report tracks the performance of various style factors, noting that the value factor recorded a positive return of 2.36%, the leverage factor recorded a positive return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor slightly rebounded with a return of 0.19%[41][42] - The report evaluates the performance of different alpha factors, highlighting that the quick ratio factor had the best performance with a weekly excess return of 1.32%, followed by the debt-asset ratio factor with a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor with a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47] - The ETF hotspot trend strategy recorded a cumulative excess return over the CSI 300 index since the beginning of the year[28][29] - The value factor achieved a weekly return of 2.36%, the leverage factor achieved a weekly return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor achieved a weekly return of 0.19%[41][42] - The quick ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.32%, the debt-asset ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes short-term attention to the flu market while advocating a long-term focus on innovation [2][4] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance recently, driven by factors such as the flu epidemic and upcoming national medical insurance negotiations [4][12] - The report suggests focusing on specific segments like flu vaccines, flu medications, respiratory testing, and high-end medical devices for long-term investment [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly return was 3.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.37%, ranking 5th among 31 sub-industry indices [4][12] - The flu epidemic is currently on the rise, with ILI percentages in southern and northern regions exceeding previous years [4][12] - Upcoming medical insurance negotiations involve 120 companies, with results expected in early December [4][12] 2. Market Performance and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's recent one-month return was 1.16%, ranking 20th among sub-industry indices [15][24] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry is 30.84, above the historical average of 28.97 [19][21] 3. Focus on Specific Stocks - Recommended stocks for flu vaccines include Huashan Vaccine and Jindike [4][12] - For flu medications, companies like Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Jichuan Pharmaceutical are highlighted [4][12] - In high-end medical devices, companies such as Mindray Medical and Yuyue Medical are suggested for investment [4][12] 4. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policy developments include discussions on medical insurance payment policies and adjustments to payment grouping schemes [4][12] - Notable company performances include BeiGene's Q3 revenue of $1.4 billion, a 41% increase year-on-year, and Innovent Biologics' revenue growth of 59.8% [4][12]