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关税冲击升级,内需补位利好建材进一步凸显
Huafu Securities· 2025-04-17 07:32
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][69] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the US and corresponding adjustments by China are expected to boost domestic demand for building materials. The urgency to expand domestic demand and promote investment has intensified due to the escalating global trade war [3][13]. - Short-term factors include the real estate policy window period before the April Politburo meeting, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is favorable for the building materials sector. In the medium to long term, the opening of the interest rate cut channel in Europe and the US is expected to provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China [3][6]. - The report anticipates that the real estate market will stabilize, driven by policies aimed at restoring homebuyer willingness and ability, which will also alleviate credit risks for companies in the industry [6][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On April 10, the US government announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, prompting China to respond with similar measures. Additionally, various local governments are implementing policies to support urban renewal and housing market stability [3][13]. - In the first quarter, high-end residential transaction prices in Shanghai increased by 0.5% to 144,600 CNY per square meter, while Shenzhen saw a 67.7% year-on-year increase in new and second-hand residential transactions [3][13]. High-frequency Data - As of April 11, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 399.0 CNY per ton, showing a 1.2% decrease week-on-week but a 15.0% increase year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1272.9 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 26.5% decrease year-on-year [4][21]. Sector Review - From April 7 to April 11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, while the building materials index decreased by 2.42%. Among sub-sectors, cement manufacturing saw a slight increase of 1.01%, while glass manufacturing declined by 6.21% [5][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock reform, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [6][60].
行业周报:对等关税利空落地,内需刺激值得期待-20250413
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-13 14:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" is limited, and there is an expectation for domestic demand stimulation. The tariffs primarily affect fiberglass and its products, with 202,000 tons of fiberglass exported in 2024, accounting for 26.7% of total production. A complete halt in exports to the U.S. could reduce domestic GDP by 1.5 percentage points, necessitating increased investment and consumption to achieve a 5% GDP growth target. The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic policies and fiscal stimulus [3][5][12] - Recommended stocks in the consumer construction materials sector include: Sankeshu (channel expansion, retail growth), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, optimized operations), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, significant retail business), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include: Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader, diversified expansion in coatings and waterproofing) [3][5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, with a target to reduce energy consumption per unit of cement clinker by 3.7% compared to 2020 levels, accelerating energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts [3][5] Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 2.42% during the week of April 7 to April 11, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.87%, by 0.46 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.48%, while the construction materials index increased by 4.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.32 percentage points. However, over the past year, the construction materials index rose by only 1.64%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 7.90% [3][12][19] Cement Sector - As of April 11, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 341.69 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the previous period. The clinker inventory ratio was 57.52%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points [5][24][26] - Regional price trends show mixed results: Northeast (+0.90%), North China (-5.46%), East China (-0.89%), South China (-1.30%), Central China (-9.81%), Southwest (+4.40%), and Northwest (0.00%) [24][26] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of April 11, 2025, was 1324.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.00 CNY/ton (0.76% rise). The futures price decreased by 5.10% to 1154 CNY/ton [5][77][79] - National float glass inventory decreased by 83 million weight boxes, a decline of 1.45%, with key provinces also showing reduced inventory levels [80][84] Fiberglass Sector - The market for fiberglass shows varied pricing, with no-alkali 2400tex direct yarn priced between 3800-4500 CNY/ton, and other fiberglass products showing flexible pricing based on regional demand [5][14] Consumer Construction Materials - As of April 11, 2025, the price of crude oil was 66.16 USD/barrel, down 1.08% week-on-week, and asphalt was priced at 4390 CNY/ton, down 1.13% week-on-week. Prices for acrylic acid and titanium dioxide showed slight increases [5][19]
关注刺激内需政策
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-07 01:30
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 06 年 月 日 建筑材料 关注刺激内需政策 2025 年 3 月 28 日至 4 月 3 日建筑材料板块(SW)下跌 0.28%,其中水 泥(SW)上涨 0.19%,玻璃制造(SW)下跌 0.14%,玻纤制造(SW) 上涨 1.22%,装修建材(SW)下跌 1.31%,本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益 1.09%。本期建筑材料板块(SW)资金净流入额为-5.37 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税",在关税超预期环境 下,提振内需是国内经济增长的重要动力,关注后续刺激内需政策。根据 wind 统计,2025 年 3 月地方政府债总发行量 9788.03 亿元,发行金额同 比 2024 年 3 月增长 55.5%,截至目前,2025 年一般债发行规模 0.41 万 亿元,同比-0.10 万亿元,专项债发行规模 2.43 万亿元,同比+1.35 万亿 元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻,企业资产负债表也存在修复的空 间,市政工程类项目有望加快推进,市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有望加 快落地,关注龙泉 ...
建筑材料行业周报:二手房交易活跃,关注需求边际改善
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-03-30 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [3] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing a marginal improvement in demand due to active second-hand housing transactions, despite a recent decline in the sector [1][11] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects, driven by increased local government bond issuance and fiscal pressure relief [2] - The glass market shows signs of marginal improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass, with price increases being implemented [2] - Cement prices are stabilizing after a period of decline, with short-term price increases expected due to production cuts and rising infrastructure demand [2] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with price recovery anticipated due to increased demand from wind power projects [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From March 21 to March 28, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) declined by 1.82%, with specific declines in cement (1.63%), glass manufacturing (3.49%), fiberglass (1.52%), and renovation materials (1.75%) [1][11] - The sector experienced a net capital outflow of 821 million yuan during this period [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of March 28, 2025, the national cement price index was 393.69 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.57% [15] - Cement output reached 2.905 million tons, up 17.61% from the previous week, with a clinker capacity utilization rate of 60.5% [15] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass was 1306.69 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30% [32] - Inventory levels for float glass decreased by 2.74 million weight boxes compared to the previous week [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with the average price for 2400tex non-alkali winding direct yarn at 3833 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [44] - The electronic yarn market also showed stability, with prices for G75 electronic yarn ranging from 8800 to 9200 yuan/ton [44] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Puhua Co., Ltd. (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 0.25 yuan for 2023 [7] - Qibin Group (Increase) with an EPS forecast of 0.65 yuan for 2023 [7] - China Jushi (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 0.76 yuan for 2023 [7] - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.09 yuan for 2023 [7]
建筑材料行业周报:需求边际回暖-2025-03-18
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-03-18 03:11
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 03 16 年 月 日 建筑材料 需求边际回暖 2025 年 3 月 7 日至 3 月 14 日建筑材料板块(SW)上涨 1.18%,上证综 指上涨 1.39%,建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-0.40%。其中水泥(SW) 上涨 1.47%,玻璃制造(SW)下跌 0.03%,玻纤制造(SW)下跌 0.75%, 装修建材(SW)上涨 1.90%。本期建筑材料板块(SW)资金净流入额为 -2.26 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 根据 wind 统计,2025 年 2 月地方政府债总发行量 13057.3 亿元,发行金 额同比 2024 年 2 月增长 133.2%,截至目前,2025 年一般债发行规模 0.30 万亿元,同比-0.11 万亿元,专项债发行规模 1.87 万亿元,同比+1.12 万亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻,企业资产负债表也存在修复 的空间,市政工程类项目有望加快推进,市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有 望加快落地,关注龙泉股份、青龙管业、中国联塑、震安科技。玻璃需求 边际改善,关注收储落地,重点关注光伏玻璃:2025 年后玻璃 ...
建筑材料行业周报:两会明确稳楼市政策,重视建材布局机会
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-03-16 17:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent National People's Congress emphasized policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to boost confidence in the construction materials sector. Key measures include reducing restrictive policies, promoting the renovation of urban villages and old houses, and expanding the use of existing land and commercial properties [3][4] - The construction materials index increased by 1.18% in the week from March 10 to March 14, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.59% [11][19] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has increased by 1.87%, while the construction materials index has decreased by 4.91%, indicating a 6.78% underperformance [11][14] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction materials index rose by 1.18% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.40 percentage points [11] - The average PE ratio for the construction materials sector is 27.32 times, and the PB ratio is 1.15 times, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [21][25] Cement Sector - As of March 15, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 354.52 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.33% increase from the previous period. The clinker inventory ratio decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 42.45% [25][27] - Regional price variations were noted, with the highest increase in North China at 7.94% and a decrease in East China by 0.79% [25][30] Glass Sector - The price of float glass decreased to 1324.00 RMB/ton, down by 2.14%, while the futures price also fell by 3.27% to 1154 RMB/ton [67][68] - The national inventory of float glass increased by 1.49%, reaching 62.6 million weight boxes [69][70] Fiberglass Sector - The market for non-alkali fiberglass continues to show stable pricing, with electronic fiberglass prices remaining steady after recent increases [19][67] Consumer Building Materials - The prices of key raw materials in the consumer building materials sector have shown slight fluctuations, with acrylic prices rising by 5.26% this week [4][5]
建筑材料行业周报:资金到位持续改善,关注旺季预期及政策催化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-03-03 01:23
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 03 02 年 月 日 建筑材料 资金到位持续改善,关注旺季预期及政策催化 2025 年 2 月 21 日至 2 月 28 日建筑材料板块(SW)上涨 1.63%,上证 综指下跌 1.72%,建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益 3.85%。其中水泥(SW) 上涨 0.94%,玻璃制造(SW)上涨 2.92%,玻纤制造(SW)上涨 4.5%, 装修建材(SW)上涨 0.93%。本期建筑材料板块(SW)资金净流入额为 2.15 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 据百年建筑调研,截至 2 月 27 日(农历正月三十),全国 13532 个工地 开复工率为 64.6%,农历同比减少;劳务上工率 61.7%,农历同比减 少;资金到位率 49.1%,农历同比略增。其中房建项目开复工率农历同 比减少;非房建项目开复工率农历同比减少。根据 wind 统计,2025 年 2 月地方政府债总发行量 13057.3 亿元,发行金额同比 2024 年 2 月增长 133.2%,截至目前,2025 年一般债发行规模 0.24 万亿元,同比-0.07 万 亿元,专项债发行规模 ...