Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) announced the successful production launch of its subsidiary Jiangxi Heartland Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.'s industrial chain extension project (Phase I) on September 23, 2025, with a designed annual capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1,200,000 tons of slow-release fertilizers [1] Group 1 - The successful launch of the project will leverage the existing market and location advantages of the Jiangxi base [1] - The project aims to enhance efficient capacity utilization and further consolidate cost leadership [1] - It is expected to increase market share while continuously contributing incremental cash flow, injecting new momentum for high-quality and sustainable development [1] Group 2 - The project will comprehensively enhance the company's overall competitiveness and brand influence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful commissioning of the Jiangxi Xinyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. project will enhance the company's production capacity and competitive edge in the fertilizer market [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Jiangxi Xinyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. project has a designed annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of slow-release fertilizers [1] - The project commenced production on September 23, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The project will leverage the existing market and geographical advantages of the Jiangxi base, improving the efficient utilization of production capacity [1] - It aims to enhance market share while contributing incremental cash flow, supporting the company's goals for high-quality and sustainable development [1] - The initiative is expected to strengthen the company's overall competitiveness and brand influence in the industry [1]

CHINA XLX FERTILISER LTD. 中國心連心化肥有限公司 * （ 在 新 加 坡 註 冊 成 立 之 有 限 公 司 ） 中國心連心化肥有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）欣然宣佈，二零二五年九月二十 三日，本公司附屬公司江西心連心化學工業有限公司（「江西基地」）產業鏈延伸項目（一 期）順利投入生產，具備設計年產能60萬噸合成氨及120萬噸緩控釋肥。 該項目的順利投產，將充分發揮江西基地現有的市場與區位優勢，提升高效產能利用 率，進一步鞏固成本領先優勢。在提升現有市場佔有率的同時，持續貢獻增量現金流， 為實現高質量、可持續發展注入新動能，全面增強公司的綜合競爭力與品牌影響力。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （香港股份代號：1866） 自願公告 產業鏈延伸項目（一期）成功投產 香港，二零二五年九月二十三日 於本公告日期，本公司執行董事為劉興旭先生、張慶金先生及閆蘊華女士；本公司獨立 非執行董事為王建源先生、李生 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for urea is "Volatility" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous implementation of new urea production capacity and the limited impact of anti - involution policy expectations have led to persistent supply - side pressure. The key to the market lies in exports, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in export policies and whether the market will conduct a new round of export games for the 2605 contract [2][4][62] - The demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. Agricultural demand may be released periodically but with general intensity, and it will enter the traditional off - season after October. The enthusiasm for tendering in the off - season storage may be high, but the actual impact may be limited. Industrial demand is expected to be relatively stable [3][47] Summary by Directory 1. Export Increment Fails to Change the Excess Pattern, Urea Weakens after Oscillating in the Third Quarter - The existing export quota cannot correct the annual supply - demand surplus pattern of urea, and the profit center of the urea industry still has room to decline. The 2509 contract in the third quarter oscillated around 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract is currently running in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13] 2. New Urea Production Capacity Continues to Be Implemented, and the Impact of Anti - Involution Policy Expectations Is Temporarily Limited - In the third quarter, new urea production devices were put into operation as expected. From January to August, the urea output reached 48.14 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 13.3%, which put pressure on the urea price [18] - The impact of anti - involution policy expectations is limited. The proportion of truly old - fashioned production capacity is less than 5%, and the necessity of quickly clearing the remaining production capacity through administrative means is questionable. It is more likely to be cleared through the market [20][21] - In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure will still be large. It is estimated that the urea output will be 17.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7%. The variables are the possible extension of the gas - head device maintenance season and the impact of rising coal prices on marginal production capacity [24][25] 3. Agricultural Demand Has No Strong Driving Force, and Off - Season Storage May Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role 3.1 Recent Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Data Further Confirm the Overall Demand Front - Loading Problem This Year - The demand for urea in the first half of the year was higher than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading. The production and sales data of compound fertilizers from January to April were better than those in the same period of previous years, while the data from May to August were worse, indicating that the demand for compound fertilizers was overdrawn before May [34][35] 3.2 Off - Season Storage Can Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role, and Industrial Demand Remains Weak - The off - season storage policy this year is basically the same as last year. The enthusiasm for tendering may be high, but the procurement rhythm is expected to be scattered, mainly playing a bottom - supporting role [38][39] - The industrial demand for urea such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to be relatively stable in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to have obvious improvement [42] 4. Low Inventory in India Boosts the Scale of Indian Tenders, Pay Attention to Export Regulation in the Fourth Quarter - The international urea price is stronger than expected. India's urea production from January to August decreased by 6% year - on - year, and its inventory is less than 50% of the same period last year, so it has carried out a large number of import tenders [48][49] - The excess supply situation in China has not changed. Although China's supply in Indian tenders has increased, it is still within the quota system, which has not changed the domestic inventory accumulation situation [53][55] - It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in China's export policy in the fourth quarter, such as the issuance of new quotas and the extension of the export window period [57][58] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the fourth quarter, the key contradiction is the continuous increase in urea factory inventory. The supply pressure will increase, and the demand is difficult to pick up significantly, so the key lies in exports [62] - The operating range of the 2601 contract is estimated to be 1580 - 1800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended that the off - season storage subjects disperse their storage rhythm [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers reduce prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the trading volume improves. The spot price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the holiday. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. The medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][14] Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [19][22] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, on - disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][26] Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese FOB prices, urea export profit, and on - disk export profit [29][32][35] Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [49][52][55]

Core Insights - The articles highlight the successful harvests across various regions in China, emphasizing the role of fertilizer companies in enhancing agricultural productivity. Group 1: Fertilizer Impact on Crop Yields - Farmers in Hunan Province using Hubei Xiangyun Chemical's health products achieved a yield of 750 kg per mu, an increase of 60 kg compared to previous years [1] - In Xinjiang, farmers applying Guizhou Phosphate Group's potassium dihydrogen phosphate saw significant cotton yields [3] - Yunnan farmers utilizing New Yangfeng Agricultural Technology's "Yangfeng Supreme" series fertilizers reported a 60% increase in yield for their stringless beans [5] - Farmers in Shandong using Zhushang Fertilizer's water-soluble fertilizers experienced stable yields and high sweetness in watermelons [9] - Inner Mongolia farmers applying Henan Xinlianxin Chemical's compound fertilizers achieved a potato yield of 1 ton per mu [11] - Farmers in Shanxi using Zhonghai Chemical's high water-soluble phosphorus fertilizers saw an increase in apple sugar content, allowing for early market entry [15] - Heilongjiang farmers using Zhonghai Chemical's compound fertilizers expect an additional 150 kg per mu for corn this year [16] - Garlic growers in Linyi achieved a yield of 3940 kg per mu using Luxi Group's garlic package fertilizer [18] Group 2: Regional Agricultural Success Stories - Hunan's peach growers using Hubei Yihua Group's Hai Dali fertilizer produced peaches with excellent texture and sweetness [3] - Farmers in the "Orange Capital" of Zigui using Hubei Huachuang Chemical's "Meinongba" water-soluble fertilizer reported improved fruit quality [7] - Cherry farmers in Dalian using Yuntianhua Group's products saw enhancements in fruit shape, weight, and taste, aiding local quality transformation [13]

【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | and the comments of | | --- | | | 尿素：周内走势关注现货节前收单，趋势仍偏 弱 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,660 | 1,661 | - 1 1077 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,658 | 1,666 | - 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 113,802 | 112,725 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 307,396 | 297,254 | 10142 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,535 | 7,810 | -275 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 377,421 | 375,627 ...

成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing slight movements while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw initial gains followed by a decline and a late recovery [1][2] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a strengthening yuan, which is expected to improve risk appetite [2][3] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, computer equipment, and automotive parts performed well, while tourism, energy metals, automotive services, and fertilizers lagged behind [1] - The technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 Index, led the major indices, with strong performances in the consumer electronics and semiconductor chip sectors [3] Investment Trends - Foreign capital showed confidence in Chinese assets, with net purchases of domestic stocks and bonds in August, indicating a positive outlook for the market [1] - There is a gradual shift of household savings towards the capital market, creating a sustained source of incremental funds [1][2] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend amidst fluctuations, with a focus on structural optimization to seize investment opportunities [1] - The current market liquidity remains active, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust market environment [2] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a slow bull trend, with the foundation for continued strength remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [3] - The upcoming long holiday may lead to a stabilization in trading activity, but the overall sentiment remains positive with expectations of further market improvements [3]

Group 1 - The current urea market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with daily production gradually recovering, but seasonal demand is not meeting expectations [1] - The low-end price of small particle urea in mainstream regions has recently touched 1580 yuan/ton, while the futures main contract price has been adjusted to around 1670 yuan/ton due to weak market sentiment [1] - There is still an expectation for demand improvement, with a need to monitor export orders and autumn preparation for fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The short-term "weak reality" is evident as the sluggish compound fertilizer market directly drags down urea demand, with sample enterprise inventories remaining at a historical high of 826,200 tons [2] - Compound fertilizer companies are adopting a "production based on sales" strategy, maintaining cautious procurement of urea and focusing on minimum safety stock levels [2] - The long-term "strong expectation" is driven by two main factors: the approaching end of the export window and the gradual initiation of storage work, which is expected to support demand [2] Group 3 - Supply is gradually recovering due to the resumption of previously shut down production facilities, with the overall industry operating rate exceeding 81% and daily production surpassing 200,000 tons [3] - The commissioning of three large urea production facilities in the third quarter adds approximately 1.5 million tons/year of new capacity, intensifying supply pressure and altering regional supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 4 - Due to lower-than-expected demand release and continuous supply increase, industry inventories have risen to 1,165,300 tons, nearly a 50% increase since early Q2 [4] - High inventory levels are causing significant capital occupation pressure for companies, leading some to adopt discount promotion strategies to accelerate cash flow [4] - The urea market is likely to experience a dual increase in supply and demand, with supply expected to rise due to the resumption of production and new installations, while demand improvement relies on the rapid execution of export orders and concentrated autumn demand release [4]