Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 13.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth in revenue this year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue for the same period was 11.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 2% [1] - The domestic value-added tax generated approximately 4.26 trillion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in industrial and service sectors [2] - Corporate income tax revenue was about 3.06 trillion yuan, down 0.4%, reflecting pressure on corporate profits [2] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax totaled 1.03 trillion yuan, down 6.1%, consistent with weak import trends [2] - Personal income tax revenue reached 927.9 billion yuan, up 8.8%, attributed to stable growth in resident income and improved tax administration [2] Monthly Trends - From April onwards, monthly tax revenue has shown continuous positive growth for four consecutive months, with July seeing a significant increase of 5% [4][6] - The cumulative decline in tax revenue narrowed significantly, with the year-on-year decline for the first seven months reducing from -1.2% in the first half to -0.3% [6] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed good tax revenue performance, with specific growth rates of 33% for railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, and 12.7% for scientific research and technical services [6] Government Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months was 16.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.8% [10] - The total government expenditure, including special bonds, showed a strong increase of 31.7% [10] - The broad fiscal expenditure, combining general public budget and government fund budget, grew by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, indicating robust fiscal support for economic growth [10]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal revenue is recovering, supported by increased government bond issuance, while fiscal expenditure remains robust [1][6] - In the first seven months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [2] - The tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [2][4] Group 2 - The growth rate of tax revenue has not kept pace with economic growth, which was 5.3% in the first half of the year [2][3] - Major tax categories showed improvement, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% [4] - Non-tax revenue grew by 2% to 24906 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 12% [5] Group 3 - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue declining by 4.6% [6] - Fiscal expenditure for the first seven months was 160737 billion yuan, up 3.4%, with social security and education spending growing above average [6][7] - Government fund budget expenditure surged by 31.7% to 54287 billion yuan, primarily directed towards major project construction [7]

从收入来看，上述负责人分析，7月份全国一般公共预算收入增幅为年内最高，累计增幅首次转正。7月 份，全国一般公共预算收入20273亿元，同比增长2.6%，其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.2%、3.1%， 月度增幅均为今年以来最高。1—7月，全国一般公共预算收入增长0.1%，增幅比上半年提高0.4个百分 点。 上述负责人表示，1—7月税收收入累计降幅明显收窄。7月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长 5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。1—7月，全国税收收入110933亿元，下降0.3%，降幅比上 半年（-1.2%）收窄0.9个百分点。其中，国内增值税、国内消费税、个人所得税分别增长3%、2.1%、 8.8%，增幅分别比上半年提高0.2个、0.4个、0.8个百分点；企业所得税下降0.4%，降幅比上半年收窄 1.5个百分点。 财政部8月19日发布数据显示，1—7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%；全国一般 公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增长3.4%。 财政部有关负责人介绍，1—7月全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到较好保障。各级财 政部门加快债券资金发行使用，1—7 ...

Group 1 - In July, the industrial production in China maintained steady growth, with the industrial added value increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 0.38% after seasonal adjustment [1] - From January to July, the industrial added value grew by 6.3%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - Among the three major sectors, the manufacturing sector's added value increased by 6.2%, surpassing the overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing industry showed robust performance, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4% in added value, consistently outperforming the overall industrial growth for 24 consecutive months [2] - All eight sub-sectors within equipment manufacturing experienced growth, with electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors each growing by 10.2%, 10.2%, and 8.5% respectively [2] - High-end equipment products saw rapid production growth, with steam turbines for power plants, mobile communication base station equipment, and generator sets increasing by 52.0%, 43.2%, and 34.6% respectively [2] Group 3 - The high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of the manufacturing sector is advancing, with high-tech manufacturing added value increasing by 9.3% year-on-year in July [3] - Key industries such as integrated circuit manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals saw significant growth, with increases of 26.9% and 12.1% respectively [3] - The digital product manufacturing sector also grew by 8.4%, with intelligent equipment manufacturing increasing by 13.4% [3] Group 4 - The "Two New" policies are yielding positive results, with industries like boiler and prime mover manufacturing seeing added value growth of 20.0% and 15.9% respectively [4] - The production of new energy vehicles increased by 17.1% due to vehicle replacement subsidy policies, along with significant growth in related products like lithium-ion batteries [4] - Overall, industrial production in July showed rapid growth, but challenges such as weak effective demand and low corporate profitability remain [4]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July 2025 demonstrates resilience and vitality despite external pressures and adverse weather conditions, with steady growth in production, consumption, and investment, alongside stable employment and prices [7][10][20]. Economic Performance Overview - The industrial output in July showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating strong industrial growth [7][51]. - The service sector also performed well, with a production index growth of 5.8% in July, driven by increased tourism and related services [7][15]. - Social retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with a notable 4% growth in goods retail [8][14]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with significant contributions from equipment updates and manufacturing investments [8][45]. Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade despite a complex international environment [8][31]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [9][20]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase in output, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [10][38]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with a 8.4% increase in digital product manufacturing in July [10][38]. Consumer Trends - Consumer demand is being stimulated by policies such as the "old for new" consumption initiative, leading to increased sales in home appliances and cultural products [8][14]. - The service sector is experiencing growth, particularly in tourism and digital services, with a notable increase in transportation and cultural service indices [15][56]. Investment Landscape - Investment in manufacturing is growing, with a 6.2% increase in manufacturing investment from January to July, particularly in textiles and automotive sectors [45][46]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with water management and information transmission sectors seeing significant growth [46][47]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is supporting production and investment growth, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [10][23]. - The government's commitment to deepening reform and opening up is enhancing the resilience and vitality of the economy [21][32].

Economic Overview - In July, China's economy demonstrated a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and significant advancements in new productive forces, contributing to high-quality development [2][3] Industrial Performance - Industrial production showed a steady upward trend, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% cumulatively from January to July, surpassing the average of the past five years by 0.42 percentage points [3][4] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing emerged as the main growth engines, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3][4] - New productive forces are being cultivated, with significant increases in the production of smart drones (80.8%), new energy vehicles (17.1%), and integrated circuits (26.9%) [3][4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.88 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while the cumulative total for January to July reached 28.42 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% [5][6] - Service consumption showed strong momentum, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in service retail sales from January to July, driven by summer tourism [5][6] - Upgraded products saw significant sales growth, with office supplies increasing by 13.8%, home appliances by 28.7%, and furniture by 20.6% [5][6] Foreign Trade Resilience - In July, China's total goods import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8%, indicating strong external demand resilience [7][8] - From January to July, the total value of goods trade reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7][8] - The resilience in foreign trade is attributed to the deepening economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, stable policies from the US-China tariff truce, and the growth of high-value-added product exports [7][8] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to further strengthen in the second half of the year, with high-tech manufacturing and green industries projected to maintain growth rates around 10% [9][10] - Continued support for consumption through policies like trade-in programs and financial assistance for the service sector is anticipated [9][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound with the gradual allocation of special bonds and the introduction of new policy financial tools [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the supply-demand contradictions in the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector, analyzing changes in both supply and demand sides and their implications for future economic trends [1][2]. Group 1: Supply-Demand Contradiction Changes - A 2x2 analytical framework is constructed to examine the supply side (upstream and midstream manufacturing) and the corresponding demand (infrastructure and real estate for upstream; equipment purchase, electromechanical exports, and durable goods consumption for midstream) [4][12]. - In 2024, the investment growth rate in equipment manufacturing decreased from 9% to 4.8% in the first seven months, while the combined demand growth rate increased from 9% to 10.7% during the same period [5][6]. - Upstream investment growth has rapidly declined, with a notable drop in real estate and infrastructure investments, which saw a faster decline in July [6][17]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - The midstream sector shows two positive changes: demand growth remains high, with electromechanical exports growing at 8.1%, equipment purchase at 15.2%, and durable goods consumption at 9.0%, leading to a combined growth rate of 10.7% [5][14]. - Supply-side investment growth in the midstream sector has started to decline, with equipment manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.8% from 6.3% [5][14]. Group 3: Upstream Manufacturing - The upstream sector presents a mixed picture: while investment growth has rapidly declined, with raw material investment growth at -0.1%, demand from real estate and infrastructure remains weak, with infrastructure investment growth at 3.2% and real estate investment at -12% [6][17]. - Historical observations from 2013-2017 indicate that upstream supply typically declines before demand recovers, suggesting that current upstream price recovery may depend on future demand increases [2][18]. Group 4: July Economic Data Overview - In July, industrial production growth was 5.7%, while service sector production index growth was 5.8%, indicating a strong supply side [20][22]. - Consumer demand and investment growth have declined, with retail sales growth at 3.7% and fixed asset investment growth at -5.3% [20][41]. - Real estate sales area decreased by 7.8% in July, and fixed asset investment growth has shown a significant decline across various sectors [27][41]. Group 5: Employment and Consumer Trends - The urban survey unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, reflecting a seasonal increase [23]. - Retail sales growth has shown resilience in lower-tier categories, with limited impact from fixed asset investment declines on middle and low-income groups [24][25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to continuously exert force and adapt as necessary to stabilize and stimulate economic growth, especially in light of recent economic indicators showing a slowdown [2][8][10] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in key economic indicators for July, including a 3.7% year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods, which is the lowest for the year [3][4] - Investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan in the first seven months, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [4][6] Group 2 - The government is expected to implement new incremental policies, including timely budget increases, interest rate cuts, and measures to support the real estate sector and foreign trade enterprises [2][8][9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech industries, has shown resilience, with significant year-on-year growth in sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing (26.9%) and electronic materials (21.7%) [3][6] - The service sector's retail sales remained stable, with a 5.2% growth from January to July, indicating a sustained expansion in consumption [4][6] Group 3 - The government plans to enhance fiscal policies by accelerating the issuance of special bonds and improving the effectiveness of fiscal measures to stimulate economic activity [10][11] - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy while optimizing the structure of financial resource allocation to support innovation and advanced manufacturing [11][12] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods is a priority for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12]

Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July showed resilience despite external uncertainties and domestic challenges, with various sectors demonstrating stable growth and new momentum emerging in the economy [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating robust industrial performance [2]. - The service production index also saw a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, reflecting a stable service sector [2]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7% year-on-year, with retail sales of goods increasing by 4% [2]. - The total import and export volume grew by 6.7% year-on-year, showing resilience in foreign trade [2]. Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [2]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, has shown a positive trend with an expanding growth rate for three consecutive months [2]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing industries are performing well, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in added value for large-scale high-tech manufacturing [2]. - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector saw a significant increase of 26.9% in added value, while the production of new energy vehicles grew by 17.1% [2]. - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first seven months, indicating a strong growth in e-commerce [2]. Future Economic Outlook - The economic recovery is supported by expanding market demand, the positive development of new productive forces, and ongoing reforms [3]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence from the international community [3]. - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support consumption and stabilize the economy [3][5].