投资一直是拉动经济增长的重要手段。 2月6日，国务院常务会议研究促进有效投资政策措施，明确要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预 算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。在基础设施、城市更 新、公共服务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域，深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。 新年伊始，高层就对有效投资工作作出系统部署，会议传递出通过高质量投资稳增长、增后劲的清晰信 号。 国务院常务会议此时研究促进有效投资，具有特殊意义。 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，这既是为五年发展蓝图提供关键"启动引擎"，也是应对当前经济形 势、夯实增长基础的关键之年。 投资是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一，在扩内需、促发展中仍然发挥着关键性作用。 会议明确提出"促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用"，这一表述将有效投资置 于经济工作的重要位置。与以往相比，此次会议对投资工作的定位更加明确。 2025年年末召开的中央经济工作会议提出要"推动投资止跌回稳"，提出"适当增加中央预算内投资规 模""继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用"。 此次会议亮出了中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 总量研究 从地方两会看稳增长"路线图" ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习第二篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写奇迹新篇章——二十 届四中全会公报精神学习暨《"十五五"规 划》系列报告二（2025-10-24） "十五五"规划的三条主线、五个猜想—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告一（2025- 09-28） 巩固经济和资本市场回稳向好势头 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Electricity Council (CEC) forecasts that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption will exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a historic milestone, with a projected growth of 5% to 6% in 2026, driven by the expansion of renewable energy capacity and a balanced supply-demand situation [1][2][7]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption Growth - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to reach 10.37 trillion kilowatt-hours, maintaining its position as the world's largest electricity consumer [2]. - The second industry will account for 6.64 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing 64% of total consumption, contributing 47.5% to the growth [2][3]. - The third industry will see a growth of 8.2%, with a contribution rate of 30.7%, driven by sectors like charging services and internet-related services [3][10]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Expansion - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.89 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for 61.7% of this capacity [4][5]. - Wind and solar power will constitute over 80% of the newly added generation capacity, with a total of 4.47 trillion kilowatt-hours of non-fossil energy generation expected, representing 42.9% of total generation [5][6]. - In 2026, solar power generation capacity is anticipated to surpass coal power for the first time, with non-fossil energy sources expected to account for 63% of total installed capacity [7][8]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - Investment in power grid construction is projected to reach 639.5 billion yuan in 2025, with significant growth in both direct current and alternating current projects [5][6]. - Cross-regional and cross-provincial electricity transmission is expected to grow, with cross-regional transmission reaching 998.4 billion kilowatt-hours, a 7.9% increase [6]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern energy system, with a focus on enhancing electricity supply security and grid intelligence [6][10].

Core Insights - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking the first time a single economy has reached this milestone, driven by robust economic growth and structural optimization in electricity consumption [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Demand Growth - The report indicates that electricity consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries will grow by 6.4% year-on-year in 2025, surpassing the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 3 percentage points [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector is expected to see a double-digit growth in electricity consumption, with a growth rate of 10.9% [2] - The photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing industry will experience a significant increase, with a growth rate of 11.3% in the fourth quarter, reflecting positive responses to the "anti-involution" policies [2] Group 2: Structural Changes in Industries - The report highlights that all nine sectors within high-tech and equipment manufacturing will achieve positive growth in electricity consumption, indicating a shift towards high-end and green transformation in manufacturing [2] - The third sector, including services like charging and swapping services, mobile internet, big data, and cloud computing, is experiencing rapid growth, showcasing the vitality of the digital economy and new infrastructure development [2] Group 3: Future Projections - For 2026, the total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach between 10.9 trillion and 11 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6% [2] - The report anticipates that by the end of 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will surpass that of coal power for the first time, with the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching half of the total installed generation capacity [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, reaching 10.37 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [2] - The report indicates that the electricity supply will continue to transition towards green and low-carbon sources, with a balanced supply and demand overall [1][4] Electricity Consumption Growth - The average annual growth rate of total electricity consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be 6.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - By July 2025, the monthly electricity consumption is expected to surpass 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a global first [2] Sector Contributions - The secondary industry remains the primary contributor to electricity consumption, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showing a significant increase in electricity usage, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, which is 3.0 percentage points higher than the average growth of the manufacturing sector [2][3] - The third industry is projected to consume 1.99 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with an 8.2% year-on-year growth, contributing 30.7% to the overall electricity consumption growth [3] Renewable Energy Expansion - By the end of 2025, the installed capacity of renewable energy sources is expected to account for 61.7% of the total installed capacity, with a significant increase in solar and wind power installations [5][6] - The report anticipates that by 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will surpass that of coal power, with renewable energy sources expected to contribute over 80% of the new installed capacity [6] Electricity Market Development - By the end of 2025, the initial establishment of a unified national electricity market is expected to be achieved, facilitating better resource allocation across regions [7] - The report emphasizes the need for continued development of the unified electricity market, including breaking down inter-provincial barriers and enhancing market operations [7][8]

Core Insights - Zhejiang Jiaokao (002061.SZ) reported a total contract amount of 254.557 billion yuan for ongoing projects as of the end of Q4 2025, with confirmed revenue of 106.024 billion yuan and remaining uncompleted amount of 148.533 billion yuan [1] - The company secured 220 new signed projects in Q4 2025, amounting to 7.496 billion yuan, and a total of 1,014 new signed projects for the year, totaling 68.678 billion yuan [1] - The company has a strong regional advantage and brand influence, operating in 20 countries overseas and undertaking projects in over 30 provinces in China, showcasing robust engineering capabilities and market competitiveness [2] Project Progress and Financial Performance - Key projects are progressing well, with timely payments and stable performance from counterparties, including the completion of the Rui Cang Expressway and significant progress on the Yongjin Expressway expansion [2] - The company’s maintenance business has shown good growth in revenue and new orders, focusing on county-level maintenance and expanding local markets through partnerships [3] - The company plans to enhance its core business through mergers and acquisitions related to upstream and downstream industries, aiming to strengthen its industrial chain and explore new profit growth points [3] Industry Context and Future Outlook - The Zhejiang Provincial Transportation Work Conference outlined ambitious infrastructure goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on modernizing transportation networks and investing 350 billion yuan in comprehensive transportation projects [4] - Long-term investment strategies emphasize the importance of infrastructure investment, particularly in economically significant provinces, highlighting Zhejiang Jiaokao as a potential investment opportunity due to its low valuation and high dividend yield [4] - The company has established a three-year dividend plan, with a cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, representing 25.48% of the consolidated net profit attributable to shareholders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the national top-level domain (Xiong'an) resolution node marks a significant step in China's internet infrastructure, enhancing user experience and empowering industry development in the Xiong'an New Area, which aims to become a global leader in digital city construction [1][4]. Group 1: Infrastructure and Performance - The Xiong'an resolution node will provide 24/7 stable, efficient, and secure ".CN" domain resolution services for internet users in Hebei Province, reducing the average resolution time from 26.25 milliseconds to 9.08 milliseconds, representing an improvement of over 65% in service response speed [4][6]. - The node is part of a national strategy to build a self-controlled network system, with its deployment in the Xiong'an Smart City Innovation Center, reflecting the area's strategic importance [4][5]. Group 2: Technological Advantages - The node employs advanced technologies such as multi-link redundancy, load balancing, and intelligent scheduling, which enhance internet service stability and availability, ensuring seamless user experience even during network fluctuations [7]. - The system's architecture is designed to strengthen network sovereignty and attack resistance, reducing reliance on foreign services and providing robust DDoS protection [7]. Group 3: Economic and Social Impact - The average daily access volume to the Xiong'an node has reached 33.44 million times, indicating a large user base and active online behavior, which reflects the region's digital economy growth [8]. - The node supports the integration of high-performance networks with cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and other digital enterprises, positioning Xiong'an as a hub for digital economic development [9].

Core Insights - China's total electricity consumption is projected to reach 10,368.2 billion kilowatt-hours by 2025, marking the first time a single country surpasses the 10 trillion kilowatt-hour threshold globally [1][2] - The growth in electricity consumption is driven by the tertiary sector and urban-rural residential electricity use, contributing to 50% of the overall increase [1] Industry Analysis - The first industry electricity consumption is expected to be 149.4 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [1] - The second industry will consume 6,636.6 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - The third industry is projected to consume 1,994.2 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption is anticipated to reach 158.8 billion kilowatt-hours, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [1] Growth Drivers - High-end manufacturing is expected to become a key growth point for electricity consumption, with electric vehicle and wind power equipment manufacturing sectors seeing growth rates exceeding 20% and 30%, respectively [2] - The rapid development of the digital economy and emerging technologies is driving a significant increase in electricity demand, with new infrastructure such as charging stations and 5G base stations contributing to over 30% growth in internet and related services electricity consumption [2] - The charging and swapping service industry is projected to see nearly 50% year-on-year growth in electricity consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Government has issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for New Infrastructure Construction," aiming to establish a high-efficiency, economical, intelligent, green, safe, and reliable new infrastructure system by 2025, supporting high-quality economic and social development and modern governance capabilities [3][5][6]. Group 1: Key Tasks - The plan outlines seven key tasks, including expanding information infrastructure supply capacity, promoting integrated infrastructure upgrades, enhancing innovation infrastructure development capabilities, expanding application space for new infrastructure, strengthening technical support for new infrastructure, improving safety and reliability, and promoting coordinated urban-rural development [6][8]. - Specific focus areas include accelerating the construction of communication networks, data center systems, intelligent computing systems, industrial internet systems, and future networks, as well as smart transportation, smart energy, smart water conservancy, and smart logistics [6][9]. Group 2: Information Infrastructure Investment - Sichuan plans to invest a total of 100 billion yuan in building a leading information infrastructure, including the construction of 250,000 5G base stations to achieve widespread coverage in townships and administrative villages [8]. - The province aims to create a "Belt and Road" international information port in Chengdu, a second city for information communication in Mianyang, and a "5G + Industrial Internet" pilot area in Deyang [8]. Group 3: Industrial Internet Development - The plan emphasizes the construction of an industrial internet system as a crucial task, with Sichuan's data centers and 5G base stations ranking among the top in the country [9]. - The province has already established nearly 40 provincial-level industrial internet platforms and has facilitated over 240,000 enterprises to transition to cloud services [9]. Group 4: Innovation Infrastructure - The plan aims to enhance the development level of innovation infrastructure, focusing on source innovation and industrial innovation capabilities [11]. - Sichuan will create a world-class cluster of major scientific and technological infrastructure, including advanced nuclear energy, aerodynamics, and biomedical fields, and will establish a national laboratory base in Tianfu New Area [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Municipal Committee has proposed a comprehensive plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on building a modern infrastructure system that is strategic, foundational, and pioneering [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The plan emphasizes the need for integrated planning of infrastructure, optimizing layout structures, and enhancing safety resilience and operational sustainability [1] - There is a push to accelerate the construction of comprehensive backbone nodes that integrate transportation, information services, and technological innovation [1] - The proposal includes a thorough assessment and upgrade of traditional infrastructure while promoting the proactive development of new infrastructure [1] Group 2: New Infrastructure Focus - The plan aims to establish various infrastructures necessary for high-level applications of artificial intelligence, including facilities for autonomous driving, smart transportation, and low-altitude operations [1] - It highlights the importance of building and operating national-level data infrastructure in Shenzhen and accelerating the construction of public infrastructure for cross-border data flow [1] Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - The plan calls for the improvement of external passage systems and the development of multimodal transport mechanisms, including sea-rail, road-rail, water-water, and air-land transport [1] - There is an intention to expand the coverage of combined ports and create a modern, efficient, green, and intelligent comprehensive transportation network [1] - The proposal includes the construction of logistics, warehousing, distribution, sorting, and transfer centers both domestically and internationally [1] Group 4: Energy and Sustainability - The plan stresses the need for enhanced infrastructure in water, electricity, gas, and oil transportation, as well as the development of a modernized water network [1] - It advocates for the scientific and orderly development of new energy storage solutions and the acceleration of smart grid and microgrid construction [1] - The proposal includes the construction of facilities for parking and driving that align with the growing number of electric vehicles, as well as charging stations and centralized cooling facilities to support the green and low-carbon transition of the economy and society [1]