关税政策缓和以后，美股强势反弹，其中标普和纳斯达克指数多次刷新历史新高，形态上重回牛市格局。华尔街最著名的大空 头之一——摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克·威尔逊表示，非常看好美股，认为美股正酝酿着新一轮牛市。持此观点的投行不在少 数，富国银行首席投资官Darrell Cronk也指出，多重利好因素有望推动美股在年底前再创新高。知名投研机构CFRA Research上 调了对标普500指数的目标价，看好该基准股指将在2025年剩余时间和2026年继续上涨。 关税政策放缓 破坏性降低 持续的通胀压力将掣击美联储的降息空间，增加经济运行成本，甚至可能加剧美国经济陷入滞胀的风险。因此，当前的关税博 弈早已超越单纯的经济账，已演变为政治表演、产业博弈与地缘竞争的混合体。关税谈判的核心目的或许从来不是解决问题， 而是服务于国内政治叙事。 降息峰回路转 概率大幅上升 美联储理事沃勒近期发出了迄今为止对7月降息最明确的信号。他认为关税带来的通胀都是暂时的，并基于就业市场的良好表现 倾向于支持降息。作为新一届美联储主席的候选人之一，他言论颇具分量。旧金山联邦储备银行行长戴利也表示，如果关税影 响小于预期，年底前再降息两次是合理的。二 ...

高盛将放弃今年的第二轮裁员。（英国金融时报） ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs will not proceed with a second round of layoffs due to improved outlook [1]

瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪最新观点认为，香港市场在短期内将面临一定压力，因为外 卖和其他行业的竞争压力可能导致盈利预测下调。但随着"反内卷"动能上升，政策变化似乎在酝酿中， 相比于其他境内资产和全球股市的估值吸引力，也将继续吸引南向和国际资金流入，维持对H股和中国 整体股市的乐观看法。(人民财讯) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Goldman Sachs economists predict the U.S. benchmark "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15% [1] - Tariffs on copper and critical minerals are expected to reach as high as 50% [1] - This increase in tariffs may lead to inflation and hinder economic growth [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing trend of individuals transitioning from full-time employment to independent work, highlighting the growth of full-time independent workers in the U.S. from 13.6 million in 2020 to 27.7 million by 2024 [3] - It emphasizes the importance of assessing readiness for such a transition through five key questions, based on experiences with successful executives and leaders [5][6] Group 1: Growth of Independent Work - The number of full-time independent workers in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift in career preferences [3] - 84% of independent workers report increased happiness, better health, and greater security compared to traditional employment [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Transition - Individuals often struggle with timing their transition from full-time jobs to independent work, with personal stories illustrating varied experiences and outcomes [4][5] - The article outlines five critical questions to evaluate readiness for leaving a full-time job, focusing on sustainable cash flow from side businesses, unique skills, and emotional stability [6][10][13] Group 3: Financial and Emotional Considerations - The average startup cost for a new business ranges from $10,000 to $40,000, emphasizing the need for adequate financial planning [10] - Emotional regulation is crucial for making sound financial decisions, as self-doubt and isolation can impact pricing and business success [13] Group 4: Passion and Mission - A strong commitment to one's craft and mission is essential for long-term success, often leading to greater financial rewards [14] - The desire for creative expression is driving many individuals to seek independent work, with 77% of U.S. employees wanting to be compensated for their creativity [15]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged over 1%, reaching a five-week high of $3401.41 before closing at $3396.91, with a slight decline observed in the Asian market [1] - The U.S. stock market saw the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices hitting historical highs, with the Nasdaq briefly surpassing 21000 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a minor decline [2] - The trade issues have resurfaced as a focal point, with the White House reaffirming its stance on tariffs [3] Group 2 - As the August 1 deadline approaches, President Trump's trade negotiation stance has become more aggressive, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating that this date is a "hard deadline" for countries to start paying tariffs [5] - The European Union is considering a "nuclear option" in response to U.S. tariffs, which could involve significant retaliatory measures, including restricting U.S. companies from participating in EU public procurement [5] - The Federal Reserve's likelihood of a rate cut in July is nearly zero, with traders now believing there is over a 50% chance of a cut in September [7] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating," predicting default rates for high-yield bonds and leveraged loans to rise by 2025 [8] - Wall Street institutions are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the S&P 500 to rise to 6900 points in the next 12 months [10] - Foreign capital is re-evaluating Chinese assets, with around 60% of Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds planning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector [11] Group 4 - Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict include a large-scale airstrike by Russia, which involved 426 drones and 24 missiles, resulting in casualties [14] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 74 drones, including those targeting Moscow, amidst ongoing tensions and preparations for a third round of negotiations [15][16]

【环球网财经综合报道】摩根士丹利周一发布重磅报告，维持对美国股市的乐观判断，并将标普500指数目标价大幅上调至7200点（预计2026年年 中达成），较5月预测的6500点提升10.8%。截至周一收盘，标普500指数报6305.60点，年内已10次刷新历史收盘纪录。 对于季节性因素扰动，大摩预计7月中旬至8月美股可能面临温和调整，但明确表示将"逢低买入"，认为当前风险仅为暂时性扰动。值得注意的 是，投行间对美股前景的判断已现分歧——杰富瑞上周五将标普500指数年终目标从5300点上调至5600点，但仍显著低于大摩的长期预测。 市场正将焦点转向本周美联储议息会议及二季度财报季。企业能否持续兑现盈利增长、美联储政策立场是否因通胀反复而调整，将成为左右美股 后续走势的关键变量。摩根士丹利在报告结尾重申："当前环境支持战术性乐观，但投资者需为波动率上升做好准备，重点关注企业利润率韧性及 AI等结构性增长主题的盈利兑现进度。"（陈十一） 以Michael Wilson为首的策略团队认为，当前美股的核心支撑来自企业盈利的超预期表现与美联储降息周期的临近。报告指出，尽管美股远期市盈 率已升至约22倍，但强劲的利润增长足以消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the global trade landscape has undergone profound changes, with tariff wars and geopolitical factors significantly impacting Chinese companies' "going out" strategy, particularly in the context of overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities in Cross-Border M&A - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities remain in cross-border M&A projects that exhibit industrial synergy, technological complementarity, and market expansion potential [1] - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has initiated a series of offline seminars to discuss and exchange views on these topics with experts from various fields [1] Group 2: Event Information - An upcoming seminar in Shanghai on August 5, 2025, will focus on the challenges and potential opportunities faced by Chinese companies in the M&A process [2][3] - The agenda includes multiple thematic discussions, such as a review of the Chinese M&A market in the first half of the year and considerations regarding Chinese companies' overseas M&A [2][3] Group 3: Expert Speakers - The event will feature prominent speakers, including Xiang Chen, who has nearly 15 years of experience in overseas investment and cross-border M&A, having led numerous projects across various regions and industries [4] - Other experts include Luo Xingguo, a professor with extensive research in financial derivatives and risk management, and Feng Kai, a senior data manager specializing in M&A data [5][8]

科创板开市历经六载，引领制度创新，推动中国科技创新。作为其中的重要参与者，投行的生态也在发生变化。 华泰联合证券执行委员会委员高元接受第一财经记者专访时称，投行作为资本市场改革的重要参与者，在见证科 创板创设与发展的过程中，也在不断学习突破，无论是在展业理念、执业能力、风险把控能力、行业洞察等方 面，都在与科创板同步成长。 （图为华泰联合证券执行委员会委员高元） 在开市六周年前夕，科创板迎来新一轮深化改革，明确设置科创板科创成长层，并推出6项改革举措，重点支持优 质未盈利科技型企业上市和发展。 "未来，券商需要充分利用多层次资本市场，结合多元融资工具，把资源集中于'补短板'领域和'战略新兴'领域。" 在中国加速发展科技创新和资本市场深化改革的背景之下，投行也在持续转型。高元说，投行业务逻辑向价值发 现转变，加速布局战略性新兴产业，将业务向更早、更小的优质科技型企业延伸。未来，券商需要充分利用多层 次资本市场，结合多元融资工具，把资源集中于"补短板"领域和"战略新兴"领域。 高元称，科创板"1+6"政策精准适配科技创新企业需求，更具包容性和适应性，也为投行服务科技创新企业提供了 明确的方向。伴随着科创成长层的设 ...