每经AI快讯，12月19日，锂板块拉升，盛新锂能涨超4%，西藏矿业、永杉锂业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业 跟涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

锂板块直线拉升，盛新锂能涨超4%，西藏矿业、永杉锂业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业跟涨。消息面上，碳 酸锂主力合约日内涨超4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. After the sentiment of supply - side disturbances faded, the high point of the previous day had obvious suppression. Although the weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate slowed down, which was expected to dampen short - term market enthusiasm, the callback space of lithium prices was limited due to the stable price increase trend in the industrial chain [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The high point of the previous day had strong suppression after supply - side disturbances subsided. The price of electric carbon increased by 500 to 97550, the price of Australian ore increased by 10 to 1340, the price of mica increased by 40 to 2825, the price of ternary increased by 200 - 800, the price of iron - lithium increased by 120, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1044 tons to 110425 tons, and the de - stocking intensity continued to slow down [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that although the global lithium carbonate price had risen significantly due to increased supply uncertainty and improved future demand prospects, it was still lower than last year's average. On December 10, the price reached $10,500 per ton, a 13% increase from the end of October. The average price this year was $9306 per ton, 24% lower than the 2024 level. Despite expected oversupply in the market this year and next, prices continued to rise. Lithium prices were expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the resumption of major mines might cause short - term price drops. The consumption of lithium - battery energy storage systems was expected to increase, driving prices up [13]. - BloombergNEF's "2025 Transition Metals Outlook" report stated that lithium supply continued to grow. Supported by new project launches in South America and Africa, the maturity of direct extraction technology, and increased secondary supply, the total lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity might increase from 1.5 million tons in 2025 to 4.4 million tons in 2035. Lithium prices were still low after falling from the peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022, but recent production interruptions and subsidy cuts had led to a slight rebound [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,998 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, production was 95,350 tons, and next month's forecast is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. November imports were 25,500 tons, and next month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - Demand - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,658 tons, a 0.02% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,524 tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][9]. - Cost - The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 102,460 - 106,420 [9]. - Market Outlook - Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market is affected by sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The main risk points are production cuts/overhaul plans and the start time of industry clearance [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply and Demand Analysis - Last week's lithium carbonate production increased slightly, and next month's production and imports are expected to increase. The inventory of downstream sample enterprises decreased. The cost of imported lithium concentrate increased, and the demand - led situation weakened. Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in a certain range [8][9]. - Expectations - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Fundamental Factors - The fundamentals are neutral, the basis shows spot discounting futures (bearish), the overall inventory is higher than the historical average (neutral), the disk shows a bullish trend, and the net short position of the main contract decreased (bearish) [11]. - Influencing Factors - Bullish factors include production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and a month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - Price Changes - The prices of most lithium compounds and related products showed certain fluctuations, with some rising and some falling [16]. - Supply - Side Data - The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and开工率 of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and other products showed different degrees of change. For example, the weekly开工率 of lithium carbonate was 83.52%, a 10.86% increase [20]. - Demand - Side Data - The monthly production, inventory, and battery loading volume of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium - ion batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase [20]. 3.2.2 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore - The price, production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. For example, the import volume of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 15.00% [20][28]. - Lithium Carbonate - The开工率, production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) changed over time. For example, the weekly开工率 of lithium carbonate production from lithium spodumene was 83.52% [20][34]. - Lithium Hydroxide - The capacity utilization rate, production, import and export volume, and开工率 of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide was between 40% - 80% [20][43]. 3.2.3 Cost and Profit - Lithium Compounds - The production cost, profit, and processing cost of various lithium compounds (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc.) from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 104,486 yuan/ton, a 0.38% increase [20][48]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate - The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream enterprises, and other sources showed different trends. For example, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 110,425 tons, a 0.94% decrease [20][55]. - Lithium Hydroxide - The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelter sources also changed [55]. 3.2.5 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Batteries - The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power lithium - ion batteries was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase [20][59]. - Ternary Precursors - The price, cost, profit, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors for 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) averaged 100,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton [64]. - Ternary Materials - The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials for 5 - series (single - crystal/power type) averaged 100,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton [70]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate - The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 100,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton [74]. - New Energy Vehicles - The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000 units, a 9.59% increase [20][82].

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 黄聪 赣锋锂业（002460.SZ，01772.HK）当前的核心工作之一是——降低资产负债率。 12月17日晚间，赣锋锂业发布的公告显示，万鑫绿色能源（宿迁）合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称"万鑫绿 能"）以4.43亿元收购公司持有的深圳易储数智能源集团有限公司（曾用名"深圳易储能源科技有限公司"，以下简 称"深圳易储"）29.54%股权。近日，公司收到深圳易储的通知，深圳易储已完成股权转让交割和工商变更登记。 值得一提的是，2025年第三季度，赣锋锂业实现营业收入62.49亿元，同比增长44.10%；归母净利润5.57亿元，同 比增长364.02%。三季度业绩一举扭转了上半年营业收入下滑、利润亏损的局面。 不过，截至2025年三季度末，赣锋锂业资产负债率达57.59%，较上年同期的47.17%提高10.42个百分点。 近日，赣锋锂业发布公告称，公司董事会审议通过议案，为优化公司资产结构，提高资产运营效率，释放公司部 分资产价值，赣锋锂业董事会授权公司管理层根据证券市场的情况，适时择机处置公司所持已流通上市的境内外 上市公司股票资产，出售上述资产的总成交金额不超过公司最近一期经审计 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 44% since October, driven by market expectations of increased demand and supply uncertainties [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine next week and the launch of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Materials project have raised concerns about supply growth [1] - Analysts note that the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine is a key variable affecting supply-demand balance, with expectations of increased supply in January [1][2] - Current lithium carbonate inventory depletion has slowed, with a weekly depletion of 1,044 tons reported, down from previous levels of around 2,000 tons [2][3] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about whether the demand growth expected for 2026 will materialize, leading to potential shifts in market dynamics [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current price levels may already reflect optimistic market expectations for 2026, indicating a potential premium [2] - The market is experiencing a reduction in bullish factors and an increase in bearish factors, raising the risk of price corrections if prices rise too quickly [2][3] Future Outlook - The uncertainty in the lithium carbonate market remains significant, with potential impacts from seasonal demand fluctuations and the resumption of lithium mining operations [3] - Downstream manufacturers' production data for the first quarter of next year will be a key focus for the market, especially in light of declining electric vehicle sales [3]

Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and International Relations - U.S. President Trump threatened to reclaim oil rights from Venezuela, claiming they were illegally taken from American companies [14][15] - The U.S. military conducted a strike on a vessel identified as a terrorist organization in the Eastern Pacific, resulting in four deaths [16] - The U.S. and Ecuador are collaborating on a short-term operation to enhance Ecuador's capabilities against drug trafficking [18] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations, indicating a cooling inflation trend [19] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, with traders anticipating a reduction of 62 basis points [19] Group 3: Lithium Market Dynamics - JPMorgan raised its target price for lithium carbonate to $18,000 per ton, significantly above the current spot price of approximately $13,500 per ton [19] - The report highlights that while global lithium supply is increasing, it is not keeping pace with explosive demand growth [20] - Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 44% since October, indicating strong market activity [20] Group 4: Supply and Demand Factors in Lithium Market - The resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine and the launch of the Jiangxi Qiangyu new materials project have raised concerns about supply growth [20] - The weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate has slowed, with a decrease of 1,044 tons reported, impacting market demand expectations [21] - Analysts express uncertainty regarding the lithium carbonate market, noting potential shifts in supply-demand dynamics and the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations [22][23]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 18 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 分析师：刘笑瑜 12 月 17 日（星期三）财政部公布 1-11 月财政收支数据。 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 评论： 1-11 月全国一般公共财政收入同比为 0.8%，与 1-10 月持平，其中中央回落 0.2 个百分点至-1.0%，地方回升 0.1 个百分点同比为 2.2%；而一般公共财政支出同比 为 1.4%，较 1-10 月回落 0.6 个百分点，其中中央回落 0.1 个百分点至 6.2%，地 方回落0.6个百分点至0.6%。地方财政支出近两个月的回落速度较快，9月为2.4%。 政府性基金收入则表现不佳，1-11 月同比为-4.9%，较 1-10 月回落 2.1 个百分点， 其中地方国有土地使用权出让收入同比为-10.7%，较 1-10 月 7.4%回落 2.7 个百分 点，9 月为 4.2%；1-11 月政府性基金支出增速为 13.7%，较 1-10 月回落 ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 106,160.00 | -2460.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -155,228.00 | +22622.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 672,711.00 | +4122.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,680.00 | -280.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 15,636.00 | 0.00 | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 97,550.00 | +500.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 94,950.00 | +500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -8,610.00 | +2960.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,300.00 | +70.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The lithium ore news has ignited the market, but there is a risk of short - term correction after returning to rationality. In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [1][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes** - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 7.97% increase. The basis weakened significantly, widening from - 4,800 yuan/ton to - 11,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 7,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.38% to 668,589 lots. The trading volume expanded sharply by 93.97% to 1,158,611 lots [1]. - **Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate remained stable at 9,665 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate stayed at 5,175 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% on December 5, 2025, to 83.52% on December 12, 2025, an increase of 10.86%, indicating an expansion of supply - side capacity. The Lijiagou lithium ore project reached full production in late August 2025, with an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate, strengthening supply stability. The cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, Jiangxi, did not affect the current supply as the relevant mines had stopped production [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 146,300 yuan/ton, and that of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 39,845 yuan/ton to 40,140 yuan/ton. The sales volume of new energy vehicles declined year - on - year in early December, reflecting weak terminal demand. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high - end products, but the overall demand growth was limited [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory dropped to 111,469 tons on December 12, a decrease of 1.88%, showing a continuous de - stocking trend [2]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. The increase in supply - side capacity utilization and the full production of mines strengthen supply stability, the decline in new energy vehicle sales restrains downstream purchasing willingness, and the current futures price has exceeded the acceptable range of downstream material manufacturers. Although inventory de - stocking provides some support, it is not enough to reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a 7.97% increase; the basis was - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 7,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a - 146.25% change; the position of the main contract was 668,589 lots, up 2,562 lots from December 16, a 0.38% increase; the trading volume of the main contract was 1,158,611 lots, up 561,294 lots from December 16, a 93.97% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 96,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from December 16, a 1.04% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials was 146,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.21% increase; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 40,140 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.74% increase [5]. - From December 5 to December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% to 83.52%, an 8.18 - percentage - point increase; the lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 113,602 tons to 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease, a 1.88% decline. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells rose from 0.34 yuan/Wh to 0.35 yuan/Wh, a 1.45% increase, while the prices of other types of cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On December 17, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,171 yuan/ton, up 1,209 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,600 - 99,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 - 95,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly, once rising more than 8% during the session, with a closing price of 108,620 yuan/ton. This market trend was mainly driven by market sentiment, triggered by the publicity of canceling 27 mining rights by the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun, Jiangxi. However, the involved lithium - containing porcelain clay mines had stopped production before 2025, so this event had no substantial impact on the current and subsequent supply stability of lithium carbonate. The abnormal price increase mainly reflected emotional fluctuations and was weakly related to industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the acceptable range of most downstream material manufacturers, and market transactions are mainly supported by the rigid - demand purchases of a small number of enterprises [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 10, from December 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease and a 10% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,165.7 million units, a 19% year - on - year increase. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 191,000 units, a 22% year - on - year decrease and a 20% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1,394.7 million units, a 27% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Industry News**: In recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries, represented by CATL's Shenxing battery and BYD's blade battery, have accelerated their penetration in the market, and the demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials has been increasing. Wanrun New Energy announced that it will upgrade the production line of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate products. On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that it holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium ore, with a proven ore resource reserve of 3.8812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [9].