1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 690 tons week-on-week to 18,800 tons. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for 2 months, expected to affect the monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 6% increase month-on-month and a 41% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons week-on-week to 140,800 tons. The overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased by 2%-3% month-on-month. The energy storage market improved slightly, slightly exceeding market expectations. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.017 million, a 25% increase year-on-year [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro sentiment, the decline of import data, and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive the market's bullish sentiment. In July, both supply and demand are expected to increase, but the improvement of the fundamentals of lithium carbonate itself is limited. In the short term, the "anti-involution" may still have some support on the emotional side. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side 5 - Month Lithium Spodumene Import Volume Decreased Slightly Month - on - Month - From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, the import volume was 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month-on-month. Imports from Australia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were 371,000 tons, 52,500 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively, with a 24.1% increase, a 29.9% increase, and an 8.2% decrease month-on-month [9]. Lithium Concentrate Price Continued the Rebound Trend - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [12]. June Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased by 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively, while the production from the recycling end decreased by 7% [16]. June Chile's Export of Lithium Carbonate to China Remained at a Low Level - From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% increase year-on-year. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. Spot Price Stabilized and Rebounded - This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, a 2.3% increase week-on-week. The market transaction was relatively dull. Lithium salt plants held prices and were reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made rigid procurement [21]. Demand Side Global New Energy Vehicle Market Started Well - From January to April this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. From January to April, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million, a 23.3% increase year-on-year. From January to May in China, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.605 million, a 44.0% increase year-on-year [29][32]. Power Battery Production Maintained a High Growth Rate - In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 47.9% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 568.1 GWh, a 62.6% increase year-on-year [36]. Domestic Mobile Phone Shipment Increased Slightly Year - on - Year - In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment of China's smartphone market was 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year. From January to December 2024, the production of China's electronic computer整机 in the first quarter was 85.322 million units, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [41]. "Rush to Install" Tide Appeared in Some Provinces in May - From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% and 112.94% increase in power and capacity year-on-year respectively. In May, due to the upcoming implementation of the "Document No. 136", a "rush to install" tide appeared in some provinces [45]. July Downstream Production Schedule Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 2,515 yuan/ton, a 115 yuan/ton decrease from last week. According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month [51]. Other Indicators Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Faced Cost Inversion - The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, a 2,210 yuan/ton increase week-on-week. Under the current lithium price, these manufacturers have fallen into losses [48]. This Week's Basis Narrowed - This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -530, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat week-on-week at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. The Price Difference between Contracts Widened - This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, increasing by 1,800 yuan compared with last week [57].

Market Overview - A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index relatively strong, rising by 0.43% to 3525.40 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.23% to 10671.48 points and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74% to 2190.82 points [2][3] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with Guolian Minsheng's stock surging over 38% during the session [9][11] Sector Performance - The banking sector led the A-share market, with Guiyang Bank rising over 4%, alongside other banks such as Qingnong Commercial Bank and Huaxia Bank also showing gains [3] - The public utilities sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, contributing to a rise of over 1% in the sector [4] - Mechanical equipment, home appliances, and oil & petrochemicals sectors performed well, while media and real estate sectors faced declines [5] Lithium Market Dynamics - Domestic lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising over 6% and surpassing 68,000 yuan/ton, compared to a low of under 59,000 yuan/ton in late June [6][8] - The rise in lithium futures positively impacted the A-share lithium mining sector, with stocks like Rongjie Co. and Yongshan Lithium hitting the daily limit up, and Tianhua New Energy rising over 13% [8] Company Highlights - Guolian Minsheng announced a projected net profit of 1.129 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183% [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively strong, up by 0.43% to 3525.40 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.23% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74% [5][6] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with Guolian Minsheng's stock surging over 38% during the session [3][14] Sector Performance - The banking sector led the A-share market, with notable gains from Guiyang Bank, which rose over 4%, along with other banks such as Qingnong Commercial Bank and Everbright Bank [6] - The public utilities sector saw significant increases, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Jiantou Energy and Jingyun Tong [7] - In terms of industry performance, mechanical equipment, home appliances, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed strong gains, while media and real estate sectors faced declines [8] Concept Stocks - The lithium mining concept stocks surged due to a significant rise in domestic lithium carbonate futures, which increased over 6% to exceed 68,000 yuan/ton. Stocks like Rongjie Co. and Yongshan Lithium Industry hit the daily limit [10][13] - The PEEK materials concept led the market with a rise exceeding 4%, with stocks like Xinhang New Materials increasing by over 14% [9] Company News - Guolian Minsheng announced a projected net profit of 1.129 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183% [18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) trends of lithium carbonate as "oscillating", with an amplitude of - 5% - +5% [51]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate strongly due to the better - than - expected demand in the off - season, the rapid increase of ore prices following the market, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts. In the long term, the market may return to a downward channel under the pressure of over - supply [2][3]. - The supply - side pressure is limited. During the rebound, the profit margin of the lithium salt processing link did not significantly increase, and the import pressure has decreased in the past two months. The focus of market competition lies in the demand side, and the trading situation in the spot market needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying at low prices and positive spreads in the short term, while waiting for a more suitable time to enter the market for medium - term short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Turns to Oscillation and Consolidation, and Downstream Buying Orders Are Gradually Released - Last week (07/07 - 07/11), lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 changed by - 1.2% and +1.6% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. The decline of lithium hydroxide narrowed. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened to 0.63 million yuan/ton [2][12]. - The market rebounded rapidly to the 65,000 - yuan level and then oscillated narrowly between 64,000 - 65,000 yuan. Due to the lag in price adjustment by third - party quotation agencies, the downstream's fear of purchasing increased, and the basis weakened. After the market entered the oscillation phase, downstream inquiries and transactions increased, indicating that the demand in the off - season was better than expected [2]. - Looking forward, the supply - side pressure is limited. The profit window of the lithium salt processing link has not significantly opened, and the import pressure has decreased. The focus of market competition is on the demand side [3]. 3.2. Weekly Review of Industry News - Hunan Chenzhou discovered 490 million tons of lithium ore. The Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, discovered a super - large altered granite - type lithium deposit, with 490 million tons of lithium ore and 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [16]. - Premier restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe. After improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate, Premier African Minerals restarted the operation of the Zulu lithium - tantalum project in Zimbabwe on July 6, with an estimated mineral resource of 526,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and 1,025 tons of tantalum pentoxide [16]. - In the first half of the year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China increased by 47.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.9%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.3% [17]. - The previously restarted production capacity continued to be released, and the output of lithium carbonate increased in June. In June, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned output for July is 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% [17]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continued to Rebound - The spot average price of lithium concentrate showed an upward trend [18]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract and the term structure showed certain fluctuations [21]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Increased - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a slight upward trend [13]. 3.3.4. Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicles Continued to Reduce Inventory in June - In June, the new energy vehicle market in China continued the inventory reduction trend, and relevant indicators such as production, sales, and penetration rate were monitored [41].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给偏多库存高位，锂价仍需谨慎交易 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线震荡偏强。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅+1.58%，振幅3.76%。主力合约报价64280元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，商务部回应美商务部长称可能于8月初与中方谈判代表会面：目前，中美双方在多个层级就经 贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。碳酸锂基本面原料端，近期碳酸锂现货价随着产业预期的改善而走高，带动锂矿价格 报价上移，期货盘面的套保机会亦使锂盐厂对原料的需求有所提升，锂矿市场交易活跃度有所转好。供给端，冶炼厂 生产意愿有所提振，国内供给量仍显偏多，行业库存高位运行。需求方面，新能源产业排产预期有所转好，下游材料 厂对碳酸锂的刚性需求令现货市场成交热情有所保障，带动市场情绪回暖。但仍需注意的是行业基本面供给端仍有压 力，产 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 产量库存均有增加，碳酸锂基本面仍未改善 市场分析 2025年7月10日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于64560元/吨，收于64180元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.43%。当 日成交量为398022手，持仓量为323683手，较前一交易日减少3212手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳530 元/吨。所有合约总持仓591900手，较前一交易日增加6834手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加80331手，成交 量497318，整体投机度为0.84。当日碳酸锂仓单13191手，较上个交易日减少90手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月10日电池级碳酸锂报价6.26-6.47万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.155-6.255万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨。据SMM数据，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心 持续震荡上行。 当前期货市场呈现非理性反弹趋势。从市场成交情况来看，下游材料厂暂未有明确备库计划。需 求增量主要以长协加量或客供模式，现货贸易市场成交寥寥。但部分下游企业的刚性采购需求仍对市场价格形成 支撑，推动 ...

盛威国际为盛新锂能全资子公司，其注册资本10,000港元；印尼盛拓为控股子公司，盛新锂能间接持有 其80%股权，其注册资本1.9亿美元。公告还披露了二者的财务数据等基本情况。担保协议的主要内容 包括担保范围、担保方式为连带保证责任、保证责任期间自债权确定期间的终止之日起三年等。 7月10日，盛新锂能发布公告，公司全资子公司盛威致远国际有限公司及控股子公司印尼盛拓锂能有限 公司因业务发展需要，拟向汇丰银行（中国）有限公司申请合计不超过5,000万美元（含本数，按合同 签署日汇率折合人民币约35,770.5万元）综合授信额度。其中4,000万美元为共用综合授信额度，1,000万 美元为共用外汇衍生品交易综合授信额度，期限不超过12个月。2025年7月9日，盛新锂能已与汇丰银行 签署了《保证书》，为上述事项提供连带责任保证。 盛新锂能分别于2025年3月21日、2025年4月11日召开相关会议并审议通过了《关于对下属子公司提供担 保额度预计的议案》，同意在下属子公司融资及日常经营需要时提供担保，担保总金额不超过人民币 110亿元，对外担保额度有效期至2025年年度股东大会召开之日止。其中为资产负债率70%以上的下属 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract declined slightly, with a decrease of 0.43% at the close. The open interest decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the raw material side, overseas mines held firm on lithium ore prices, which were driven up by spot prices, and smelters' willingness to purchase lithium ore also increased. On the supply side, domestic lithium salt plants significantly increased production. On the demand side, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the willingness to stock up was not significantly strengthened due to the off - season. In the consumer market, industrial expectations were repaired by macro - policies, but effective demand still needed real consumption to drive [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest was 37.04%, up 1.2231% month - on - month. The options market was dominated by call open interest, with a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD had both lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars were expanding. The operation suggestion was to lightly short at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price was 64,180 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 91,137 lots, up 2,170 lots; the main contract open interest was 323,683 lots, down 3,212 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 360 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 13,281 lots, up 626 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 530 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 5,400 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,736 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. 3.5下游及应用情况 - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The total call open interest was 128,032 contracts, up 1,815 contracts; the total put open interest was 47,419 contracts, up 2,216 contracts; the total put - call ratio of open interest was 37.04%, up 1.2231 percentage points; the at - the - money implied volatility was 0.23%, down 0.0057 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI continued to rise. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. In 2024, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 31.4 million. The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted from "one - way adaptation" to "two - way empowerment" [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - In May, the lithium supply and demand were basically balanced, with an overall slowdown in inventory accumulation across the industry chain [3][5] - The report highlights that the short-term outlook for lithium carbonate prices is expected to return to fundamental trends, with potential price increases, while the long-term supply-demand imbalance has not yet reversed [5][107] Supply Side Summary - In May, lithium ore imports totaled 484,000 tons, down 4.3% year-on-year but up 5.9% month-on-month, with Australia accounting for 371,000 tons [3][14] - The cumulative lithium supply from January to May 2025 increased by 40.2% year-on-year, reaching 519,700 tons [42][97] - The supply of lithium salts in May was 105,500 tons LCE, reflecting an 8.9% month-on-month increase [42] Demand Side Summary - In May, the consumption of lithium carbonate was 91,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40% for the first five months of 2025 [23][24] - The demand for lithium salts from January to May 2025 increased by 39.7% year-on-year, totaling 485,700 tons LCE [72][97] - The demand for lithium in the power battery sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of 61.6% during the same period [88] Price Trends - As of June, lithium carbonate prices are experiencing fluctuations, with market supply increasing and inventory trends showing accumulation, leading to continued price pressure [101][103] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 61,200 CNY per ton, down 33% year-on-year [101] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strategic focus on stocks such as Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Yongxing Materials, and others for potential investment opportunities [5][107]

Group 1 - The importance of lithium as a key element in the transition to clean energy is increasingly highlighted due to the rapid rise in the penetration rate of electric vehicles and explosive growth in the energy storage market driven by policy and technological advancements [1] - Hunan Province has discovered a super-large lithium deposit with a resource amount of 490 million tons and lithium oxide resources of 131,000 tons, which will enhance domestic lithium resource reserves and strengthen resource advantages in the upstream sector [2][3] - The company Hunan Dazhonghe Lithium Mining Co., a subsidiary of Dazhong Mining, is actively developing lithium mining while leveraging its extensive experience in iron ore mining to respond to national carbon neutrality goals [2][3] Group 2 - Hunan Province's Chenzhou City has preliminary lithium oxide reserves exceeding 12 million tons, creating a robust lithium battery supply chain from mining to recycling [3] - Multiple listed companies, including Keli Yuan and Weiling New Energy, are establishing operations in Chenzhou to expand their lithium battery and related businesses, indicating a growing interest in the lithium industry [3][4] - The newly discovered lithium resources are expected to solidify China's lithium supply system, mitigate supply risks, and foster the development of a talent and technology cluster beneficial for the high-quality growth of the new energy industry [4]