一季度受盈利高位回落影响，养殖单位补栏心态趋于谨慎，鸡苗需求量逐渐下降，蛋鸡苗价格先小涨后 走低。二季度养殖盈利难有明显改善，叠加高温天气下鸡苗孵化难度提升，或抑制养殖单位补栏心态， 鸡苗价格或进一步下探。 受养殖盈利主导，养殖单位补栏心态转变，鸡苗需求量先增后减，进而使得鸡苗价格呈现先涨后跌的走 势。据卓创资讯数据监测显示，一季度蛋鸡苗平均价格4.33元／羽，环比涨幅12.31%，同比涨幅 45.51%。其中1月份，鸡苗价格仍旧表现较强，涨至近三年最高水平4.51元／羽，之后受盈利下降影 响，养殖单位补栏心态趋缓，鸡苗需求量下降，鸡苗价格有所回落，但受到供应紧缺影响，鸡苗价格跌 幅不大。截至4月底，全国代表市场蛋鸡苗均价4.13元／羽，期内最大跌幅8.43%。 分析来看，养殖盈利高位回落，导致养殖单位补栏趋于谨慎，进而导致鸡苗价格下跌的主要原因。据卓 创资讯数据监测显示，一季度单斤鸡蛋毛利润0.39元，环比跌幅72.92%，整体盈利缩减。其中1月份， 单斤鸡蛋平均毛利润约1.13元，盈利较为可观，但到了2月、3月，单斤鸡蛋毛利润分别仅为0.00元、 0.01元，盈利不及业者预期，进而使得养殖企业补栏心态趋于 ...

2025年，价格最疯狂的商品是什么? 说起来可能很难相信，答案并不是黄金古玩，也不是奇珍奢品，而是最普普通通的 ——鸡蛋。 今年1月，日本人爆发了鸡蛋恐慌。 据日媒报道，东京中等大小鸡蛋29日基准批发价为每公斤295日元(约合14元人民币)，比1年前高出近60%。 这直接唤醒了2022年同期日本"全国无蛋"的记忆，日本农林水产省甚至建议使用鸡蛋的厂商改用冷冻蛋液库 存。 曾经的世界第二经济强国为了鸡蛋提心吊胆，已经足够让人惊讶。然而更荒诞的是，紧接着日本，当今世界 第一强国在对外挥动关税大棒耀武扬威的同时，竟然出现了更严重的鸡蛋荒。 今年1月，美国劳工统计局公布的一打A级鸡蛋均价达4.95美元的历史新高，突破了2年前同一时间4.82美元 的纪录。这还没完，3月，这个数字变成了6.23美元，短短2个月又涨了25%。 对比起2018年1.49美元的均价，美国鸡蛋价格这7年涨了318%，远超同期黄金价格180%的涨幅！ 根据Clarify Capital的调查，因为价格，34%的美国人已停止购买鸡蛋。三分之一的人买不起鸡蛋，很难想象 这是2025年超级大国的生活状态。 日本、美国这轮鸡蛋短缺的共同原因是禽流感。日本 ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 | | chengys01@ghzq.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 熊子兴 S0350522100002 | | | xiongzx@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 王思言 S0350524010001 | | | wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/04/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 农林牧渔 | 2.9% | 7.0% | -1.2% | | 沪深 300 | -3.7% | -1.2% | 7.3% | 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业周报：关注贸易冲突背景下粮食安 全（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》 ——2025-04-14 《农林牧渔行业周报：养殖底部布局（推荐）*农 林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》——2025-03-24 《农林牧渔行业周报：贸易摩擦格局下，农业板块 配置思路分析（推 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price has been fluctuating, with the average price on April 24 being 14.92 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg week-on-week. The second batch of fattening pigs accounted for 9.73% of the total sales, an increase of 4.38 percentage points compared to the previous ten days [2][12][34] - In the poultry sector, the white chicken price has slightly adjusted downwards due to limited demand as the May Day stocking approaches its end. The average price for meat chickens was 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] - The seed industry is seeing enhanced regulatory activities focusing on intellectual property protection, which is expected to improve market order and support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pig price has shown fluctuations, with a slight recovery in average weight. The average weight of pigs sold was 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week. The slaughter volume has slightly increased, with an average daily slaughter of 139,600 pigs, up 2.16% week-on-week [2][12][16][24] - The price difference between different weight categories of pigs is narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][24][34] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing a slight price adjustment due to seasonal factors and limited demand. The average price for chicken chicks was 2.85 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird week-on-week [3][36][40] - The egg price has continued to rise, with an average price of 7.25 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [3][36] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture has initiated a regulatory campaign to enhance intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to support the supply of essential agricultural products [3][48] - The report notes a strong short-term trend in soybean meal prices, with the current price at 3,580.00 yuan/ton, up 78.00 yuan/ton week-on-week, driven by supply constraints [3][49]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Increase" [5] Core Views - The pet industry shows strong performance with leading companies reporting significant revenue growth and an increasing share of domestic business. The trend of brand localization and premiumization is evident, with 2024 revenue growth for leading companies such as Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. at 21.22%, 19.15%, and 17.56% respectively, while net profit growth is 45.68%, 68.89%, and 1743% respectively [1][12] - In Q1 2025, Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reported revenue growth of 34.82% and 25.41% respectively, while Petty Co. experienced a decline of 14.4% [1][12] - The domestic business of Zhongchong Co. grew by 30.26%, accounting for 31.67% of total revenue, while Guibao Pet's domestic business grew by 24%, making up 67.71% of its revenue [1][12] - The self-owned brand revenue of Guibao Pet reached 3.545 billion yuan, growing by 29% year-on-year, representing 67.6% of its total revenue [1][12] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - Leading pet companies reported strong growth in both revenue and net profit, with significant increases in domestic business and self-owned brand revenue [1][12] - Douyin's sales data for March 2025 shows a sales revenue of 818 million yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 18.004 million, up 34.12% year-on-year, indicating a positive growth trend for top domestic brands [2][13] Livestock Farming - The national price for lean meat pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous week, with a focus on low-cost, high-growth companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][14] - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.4%, and the average price for chicken products is 8.9 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [14][28] - The price for meat chicken seedlings is 2.85 yuan each, down 4% from the previous week [14][26] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution are confirmed [14] - The fluctuation of agricultural product prices is increasing, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [14]

宠物公司业绩表现亮眼，行业持续高景气 同时，宠物营销界发布 3 月数据：抖音作为新内容平台，销量、销售 额数据均呈现同比增长，看好头部国产品牌中长期成长空间。根据宠 物营销界数据，抖音 2025 年 3 月情况如下：销售额达到 8.18 亿，同 比+24.32%，销售量 1800.4 万，同比+34.12%；客单价下降 6.27%， 关联商品数增长 2.7%，关联品牌数增长 0.43%，关联小店数增长 29.94%，关联达人数增长 34.65%。其中销售额前五品牌情况：1）抖 音狗主粮：麦富迪、伯纳天纯、明亮与狗、比乐、鲜粮说，2）抖音猫 主粮：麦富迪、弗列加特、卫仕、喵梵思、蓝氏。淘宝 2025 年 3 月情 况如下：1）淘宝猫主粮：销量环比上升了29.30%，同比下降了21.25%； 销售额环比上升了 35.34%，同比下降了 21.37%。2）淘宝狗主粮：销 量环比上升 33.78%，同比下降了 17.79%；销售额环比上升 36.26%， 同比下降 12.56%，抖音新内容平台增长较好。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉 ...

开平"马冈鹅"备 战农博会！_南 方+_南方plus 2025年4月14 日，在第十四届 广东省现代农业 博览会开幕前 夕，江门市人大 常委会副主任余 中华带队拜访广 东省农业农村 厅，就马冈鹅产 业链高质量发展 展开深入探讨， 寻求支持与合 作。作为广东四 大名鹅之首、国 家地理标志农产 品，马冈鹅近年 来通过科技赋 能、品牌塑造、 三产融合等举 措，已成为开平 市乡村振兴的核 心引擎。 会议上，开平市 马冈镇党委书记 郁长青、江门市 农业农村局副局 长王小丽、江门 市人大常委会副 主任余中华等围 绕马冈鹅产业化 升级作系统阐 述。 作为马冈鹅的原 产地，马冈镇近 年来被评为全 国"一村一品"示 范镇（肉鹅）、 广东省"一村一 品一镇一业"专 业镇、江门市马 冈鹅养殖专业 镇、开平市农业 专业镇，拥有全 国范围的马冈鹅 种鹅定价权。郁 长青提到："马 冈镇现有马冈鹅 养殖场300家， 马冈镇马冈鹅种 鹅饲养总量30万 羽，2024年产鹅 苗750万对，出 栏肉鹅500万 充到，马冈鹅的 产业发展融合了 第一、二、三产 业，且十分注重 种质资源的保 护，2022年成功 创建全省首个马 冈鹅省级畜禽遗 传资源保 ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 关注贸易冲突背景下粮食安全 ——农林牧渔行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/04/11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 农林牧渔 | 5.1% | 12.8% | 0.2% | | 沪深 300 | -4.8% | 0.5% | 7.0% | 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业周报：养殖底部布局（推荐）*农 林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》——2025-03-24 《农林牧渔行业周报：贸易摩擦格局下，农业板块 配置思路分析（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴， 王思言》——2025-03-10 《农林牧渔行业周报：粮价回升，宠物线上品牌延 续高景气（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王 思言》——2025-02-24 《农林牧渔行业周报：玉米豆粕反弹，春节后猪价 走弱（推荐）*农林牧渔*程一胜，熊子兴，王思言》 ——2025-02-10 ...