行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 产能去化逐步显现，10 月全国能繁降至 4000 万 头以下 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：产能去化逐步显现，10 月全国能繁降至 4000 万头以下。 （1）本周猪价先抑后扬，整体小幅走低。周初多家集团场维持增量出栏节 奏，价格整体承压。进入周中后期，随着气温持续下降，终端基础消费有 所回暖，同时南方部分区域的腌腊、灌肠等需求活动零星开启，对猪肉消 费形成提振，推动周后期猪价窄幅偏强运行。11 月 21 日猪价 11.62 元/公 斤，周环比-0.04 元/公斤。（2）本周生猪出栏均重继续回升。气温下降促 使猪只日增重提升，加之集团场维持增量出栏节奏，共同带动集团场均重 回升；由于散养户及二次育肥户出栏积极性提高，市场中大体重猪源增多， 进而推动散养户均重增长。截至 11 月 20 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.81kg， 周环比+0.33kg。展望后市，近期养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产能调控政策 推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质 猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国 ...

11月12日，江苏立卓信息技术有限公司在常州中吴宾馆举行战略投资签约大会。会上，江苏立卓信息有限公司与中国创新投资有限公司、城投发展基金有 限公司签署了"战略投资协议"，与南京博拓农业科技有限公司签订了"万亩智慧大棚种植协议"，与南京好食惠农业发展有限公司签订了"万亩经济作物收 购协议"。 大会上，江苏立卓信息技术有限公司董事长芮江峰阐述了立卓信息在智慧农业领域的战略规划，将"AI+机器人+农业"深度嵌入经营内核，致力于成为中 国智慧农业领跑者。 随后，江苏立卓信息技术有限公司与南京博拓农业科技有限公司签订了"万亩智慧大棚种植协议"。 最后，江苏立卓信息技术有限公司与南京好食惠农业发展有限公司签订了"万亩经济作物收购协议"。 接下来，中国创新投资有限公司董事会主席向心发表致辞。他对立卓信息的商业模式与发展前景表示高度认可，对中国智慧农业融合发展充满无限期待。 随后，南京农业大学智慧农业研究院执行院长汤亮教授发表致辞。他高度肯定了立卓信息在智慧农业领域已取得的技术突破与市场成果，鼓励立卓信息持 续深化产学研融合，为中国农业现代化发展贡献立卓力量。 在签约环节。首先，江苏立卓信息技术有限公司与中国创新投资有限公司 ...

Group 1: Agricultural AI Development - The "Future Agricultural Intelligent Hub" was jointly launched by Yanzhou Bay National Laboratory and Huawei, aiming to enhance breeding efficiency through AI and establish a unified data platform for multi-modal seed industry data [1] - The global smart agriculture market is projected to reach $34.1 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%, while China's "AI + agriculture" market is expected to reach 48.7 billion RMB by 2025, growing at 26.5% [1] - The integration of AI in agriculture is seen as a typical case of technology empowering traditional industries, driven by the need to overcome bottlenecks in traditional agricultural models [1] Group 2: Industry Innovations and Applications - XAG Technology has developed an agricultural drone capable of sowing rice seeds, completing the task for 6 acres in about 4 minutes, which is 50 times more efficient than traditional manual methods [2] - XAG's products are now available in 70 countries and regions, serving over one million farmers, showcasing the innovative practices driven by AI in agriculture [2] - Longping High-Tech focuses on core seed industry operations, leveraging technological innovation to become a comprehensive multinational seed group specializing in major crops [2][3] Group 3: Digital Agriculture Platforms - Dayu Water-saving Group has developed a digital agriculture platform that integrates precision irrigation, data management, IoT, remote sensing technology, and agricultural big data [3] - The company utilizes AI, digital twins, and big data to enhance water resource management, enabling real-time monitoring and optimization of water resource allocation [3]

Core Insights - The event "Intelligent Gathering in Ba Gui: Academics and Experts' Visit for High-Quality Development of Characteristic Agriculture in Guangxi" aims to enhance the agricultural sector in Guangxi through smart technology and expert guidance [1] - The focus is on achieving food security and improving grain production capacity through smart agriculture, with the first unmanned rice farm in Guangxi demonstrating significant yield [2] - The integration of AI in agriculture is expected to attract younger generations to the sector by addressing labor shortages and improving production efficiency [2] Group 1: Smart Agriculture Initiatives - The first unmanned rice farm in Guangxi achieved a yield of 1,051.89 kg per mu, with the "Wei Liang You 8612" variety consistently exceeding 1,000 kg per mu for two consecutive years [2] - The farm utilizes a range of smart equipment, including unmanned tractors and drones, to manage the entire rice production process digitally [2] - Experts emphasize the importance of smart technology in addressing rural labor shortages and enhancing agricultural productivity [2] Group 2: Aquaculture and Smart Technology - Smart aquaculture is being developed in Guangxi, with real-time monitoring of water quality in modern fish farming facilities [3] - The system alerts farmers when water quality exceeds safe limits, promoting a shift towards ecological farming practices [3] - Collaboration between research teams and local enterprises aims to enhance the entire fish farming process through smart technology [3] Group 3: Sugarcane Production Challenges - The hilly terrain in Guangxi poses challenges for mechanization and smart technology in sugarcane production [3] - Experts recommend improving land suitability for machinery through terrain modification and developing specialized equipment for hilly areas [3] - The promotion of a "step-by-step harvesting" model is being implemented to address harvesting difficulties in small and sloped fields [3] Group 4: Agricultural Technology Exchange - Guangxi is positioned as a potential agricultural technology export hub to ASEAN countries facing similar agricultural challenges [4] - The region can enhance economic cooperation through technology transfer, product exports, and skills training [4] - The integration of traditional breeding methods with modern technology is seen as a way to enhance the competitiveness of local crop varieties [4] Group 5: AI in Breeding and Crop Management - AI technology is being utilized to improve breeding efficiency and shorten breeding cycles for rice and vegetable varieties [5] - Experts suggest focusing on quality improvement in crop varieties, particularly for high-temperature and high-humidity conditions in Guangxi [5] - AI models can also optimize field management by predicting pest and disease outbreaks based on climate data [5] Group 6: Events and Expert Engagement - The event included various activities such as the 2025 Smart Agriculture Expo and the closing ceremony of the Smart Agriculture Innovation Competition, facilitating exchanges between experts and local agricultural representatives [6] - The insights and recommendations from experts are expected to drive the transformation and upgrading of Guangxi's agricultural sector [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [70]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply pressure in the pig farming sector, leading to a downward trend in pig prices. As of November 7, the average pig price was 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week, indicating a shift towards heavier pigs being sold [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef in 2026-2027. The price of calves as of November 7 was 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date [3][32]. - The poultry sector is experiencing stable yet declining prices for meat chickens, with the average price for white feathered meat chickens at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7. The egg price is slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg, indicating potential recovery in the egg market as downstream production decreases [4][40][45]. - The agricultural sector is seeing a strong performance in soybean meal prices due to changes in import tariffs on U.S. soybeans, with the spot price at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is expected to support a strong trend in soybean meal prices moving forward [4][53]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply pressure continues, leading to a decline in pig prices. The average pig price as of November 7 is 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week [2][10][30]. - The report notes that the market is transitioning to sporadic replenishment as the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly [10][30]. Beef Industry - Short-term prices for beef are slightly declining, with calf prices at 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date. The market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, leading to a potential price increase cycle in 2026-2027 [3][32]. Poultry Sector - The average price for white feathered meat chickens is stable at 7.09 CNY/kg, while egg prices are slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg. The report suggests that the poultry sector may benefit from a recovery in consumption as production decreases [4][40][45]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain strong due to tariff changes on U.S. soybeans, with current prices at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is anticipated to support a bullish trend in soybean meal prices [4][53].

Core Insights - Syngenta Group showcased its innovations in agriculture at the 8th China International Import Expo, focusing on food security, yield enhancement, and sustainable agricultural development [1][2] - The integration of AI and biotechnology is driving a transformation in global agriculture, addressing challenges related to food security and climate change [1] - Syngenta's GASEL system, which simulates millions of gene combinations, significantly improves breeding efficiency and reduces research costs, already applied in corn breeding in China [1] Group 1 - Syngenta highlighted breakthrough rice varieties at the expo, promoting new rice seeds exported to Vietnam, the Philippines, and Pakistan [2] - The company is actively promoting hybrid rice technology in over 30 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, contributing to global food security [2] - Research indicates that global food production needs to increase by 50% in the next 30 years to feed 10 billion people, while agriculture contributes to 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively responding to the national initiative of "AI + Agriculture" and is focusing on the integration of AI agricultural technologies with practical applications to enhance its core competitiveness in agriculture [1] Company Summary - The company, Beidahuang (stock code: 600598), is engaging with investors through interactive platforms to communicate its strategic direction [1] - The company emphasizes its commitment to staying updated on the forefront of AI agricultural technology [1]

Core Insights - The event "Digital Makes Rural Areas Better" was held in Jiangsu, focusing on the transformation of traditional agriculture into smart agriculture solutions [1][3] - Suzhou Jiufu Agricultural Machinery Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a traditional agricultural machinery manufacturer to a provider of smart agricultural solutions, addressing key issues in modern farming [1][2] Company Developments - Jiufu has secured over 500 acres of experimental fields to implement fully automated rice and wheat rotation practices [2] - The company aims to achieve unmanned operations across all farming stages, utilizing smart equipment like unmanned tractors and drones for various agricultural tasks [2] Technological Innovations - The unmanned operations are expected to bring multiple benefits, including real-time data upload for operators, transparent workload and earnings, and optimized input-output ratios for farm owners [2] - Jiufu is developing a weed control robot to replace chemical herbicides, promoting sustainable agricultural practices [2] Future Outlook - The integration of AI in agriculture is seen as an inevitable trend, with Jiufu committed to advancing smart agriculture through technological innovation [2] - The company aims to contribute to the construction of digital rural areas and ensure food security in China [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][76]. Core Insights - The pig price has rebounded due to emotional factors, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening [2][11]. - The beef market is experiencing a slight price decline in the short term, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward cycle in beef prices by 2026-2027 [3][36]. - The poultry sector shows stable prices for white chickens, while egg prices are declining, indicating a potential recovery driven by capacity reduction [4][43]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices have increased, with the national average price at 11.81 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63 yuan/kg [2][11]. - The average weight of pigs sold has decreased to 127.90 kg, with group farms averaging 123.94 kg and smallholders at 142.21 kg [2][23]. - The secondary fattening sales ratio increased to 2.09%, up by 1.07 percentage points week-on-week [2][11]. Beef Industry - Calf and fattening bull prices are at 32.13 yuan/kg and 25.67 yuan/kg, respectively, with year-to-date increases of 33.26% and 9.05% [3][36]. - The supply of beef is expected to tighten due to significant capacity reduction from previous losses, leading to a potential price increase in 2026-2027 [3][36]. Dairy Sector - The raw milk price is at a low of 3.04 yuan/kg, with a 31% decline from the peak [3][37]. - Continuous losses in the dairy sector are expected to drive capacity reduction, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [3][37]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feathered chickens is stable at 6.88 yuan/kg, with chick prices at 3.32 yuan each [4][43]. - The ongoing avian influenza outbreak may further restrict upstream production capacity, impacting the market [4][47]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded, with the current spot price at 2984 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 26 yuan/ton [4][55]. - The futures market shows a recovery in soybean meal prices, supported by declining inventories and import costs [4][55].

Core Viewpoint - The "Three-Year Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of Suzhou's Characteristic Agricultural and Sideline Products (2025-2027)" aims to enhance the green, standardized, and international development of local agricultural products, focusing on quality and safety standards [1][2][3] Group 1: Green Development - By 2027, the coverage rate of soil testing and formula technology for major crops in Suzhou is expected to exceed 98%, with green prevention and control coverage reaching over 73% [1] - The comprehensive mechanization rate for important grain crops is projected to be 99%, while the mechanization level for characteristic agriculture is anticipated to be over 86% [1] - The overall quality safety compliance rate for local agricultural products is targeted to remain stable at over 98%, with the total number of green and high-quality agricultural products exceeding 1,000 and accounting for over 85% of the total [1] Group 2: Standardization and Scale - The plan emphasizes the establishment of a characteristic germplasm resource protection system, focusing on local varieties such as Biluochun tea and Taihu pigs [2] - By 2027, the grain planting area is expected to exceed 2 million mu, with a total output of over 950,000 tons, and the conversion rate of high-quality rice reaching over 50% [2] - The total output value of the "Yangcheng Lake Crab" industry chain is projected to exceed 35 billion yuan, while the "Changshu Blue Dragon" industry chain is expected to exceed 40 million yuan [2] Group 3: Social Services and Innovation - The plan includes the establishment of two cold chain distribution centers for agricultural products and the construction of various modern agricultural demonstration projects by 2027 [3] - The goal is to achieve over 250 billion yuan in e-commerce sales of agricultural products, with the establishment of 15 city-level agricultural product e-commerce industrial alliances [3] - The plan aims to enhance brand development, focusing on promoting the main brand "Time Flavor Suzhou" and key products like "Yangcheng Lake Crab" and "Suzhou Rice" [3] Group 4: Internationalization and Cultural Heritage - The plan supports the export of preserved agricultural products and aims to add 10 new agricultural export enterprises by 2027 [3] - It targets the addition of three national-level agricultural cultural heritage sites and five provincial-level sites, promoting the Wujiang sericulture culture system [3] - The plan also focuses on integrating rural consumption patterns to cater to urban youth, families, and senior groups [3]